GASabresIUFan

The more I read about Josh and DIggs this seems like addition by subtraction. The Bills have a new OC, the Bills went 7-2 with that OC and a diminished role for Diggs. Josh was much better at spreading the ball around to Shakir, Kincaid and Cook who rewarded him by catching 80% of his throws as opposed to Davis and Diggs who caught 61% or less. The Bills also clear an expensive Prima Donna out of the locker-room. We may look back at the Diggs trade and call it Josh Freedom Day. Now Josh can literally scan the field and throw to who is open instead of force feeding Diggs to keep him happy. I wonder if the dropped ball against KC was the last straw for Diggs in Buffalo. People are justifiably worried about how we make up the 241 targets, 152 catches, 1926 yards and 15 TDs that walked out the door with Diggs and Davis. Add in Harty, Murray, Sherfield and Harris and you have another 67 Targets to re-allocate. I'd argue that this is a classic Moneyball situation where we'll make up for the loss in the aggregate. Josh targets a Receiver (TE, RB or WR) about 550 times per season. Next season Knox (36 targets), Kincaid (91), Shakir (45) and Ty Johnson (7) all should have expanded roles with Kincaid likely going form 90 to 120 targets and Shakir going as high as 85 or 90. Beane signs UFAs Samuel (92 tgts) and Hollins (30) and I can easily see them repeating those numbers in Buffalo. Now add a high draft pick at WR to the mix. Davis, as a rookie, was targeted about 65 times, and that seems like a reasonable place to start for a new player. Kincaid 91 --> 120 Shakir 45 --> 90 Samuel 92 --> 90 Rookie WR 0 --> 65 Cook 54 --> 60 Knox 36 --> 50 Hollins 30 --> 30 Johnson 7 --> 30 Others 6 --> 10 This allocation would actually decrease the throws to the receivers (from 330 to 280), but increase the usage of the TEs (from 130 to 170). This would be a much more balanced passing attack and make it much much harder to defenses to defend.

Trade Recap 4 trades 1. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 26 2024: Round 3, Pick 92 Tampa Bay Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 2024: Round 4, Pick 128 2024: Round 5, Pick 144 2024: Round 5, Pick 163 2. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 3, Pick 66 2024: Round 4, Pick 104 2024: Round 5, Pick 162 2024: Round 6, Pick 186 Arizona Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 2024: Round 4, Pick 133 2024: Round 5, Pick 160 2024: Round 7, Pick 248 3. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 4, Pick 108 2024: Round 5, Pick 157 Minnesota Receives: 2024: Round 4, Pick 104 2024: Round 6, Pick 200 4. Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 165 2024: Round 6, Pick 218 Baltimore Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 162 My Selections 26 - Traded up a few slots to get Thomas as well as moving 3 later picks to get back into the 3rd rd Brian Thomas Jr. WR | LSU 66 - Traded down 6 slots to basically add a early 4th rd pick. Bralen Trice EDGE | Washington 92 - Tall Safety with good speed Calen Bullock S | USC 108 -Traded down from 104 to move pick 200 up 43 slots to 157 Mekhi Wingo DL | LSU 157 - Big Power back to compliment Cook and Johnson Isaac Guerendo RB | Louisville 165 - traded down from 160 to add a later pick (218) Christian Jones OT | Texas 186 - added a 2nd WR to add needed depth at WR - like Johnson's speed and hands Cornelius Johnson WR | Michigan 204 -Only original pick Delmar Glaze IOL | Maryland 218 - a very solid corner for this late in the draft Dwight McGlothern CB | Arkansas

I don't think so either. He looks like a 5/6 to me as well, but an injury opens the door for someone to step up.

I don’t disagree, but it shows the luck of the draft sometimes. Maybe Shorter becomes the breakout Bill this year, like Shakir last year.

The Bills drafted Shorter last year in the 5th rd. The next 2 WRs off the board were Donta Wicks and Puka Nacua. Oops!

Please Beane do not trade for a WR under any circumstances. Trade up in the draft if you have to, but it's time to finally invest in skill help at WR in the draft and develop our own young talent. Lets look at our skill position drafting under Beane. TEs: Kincaid (1st rd 2023), Knox (3rd rd 2019), Tommy Sweeney (7th rd 2019) & Quintin Morris (UDFA). RBs: Cook (2nd rd 2022), Moss (3rd rd 2020) & Singletary (3rd rd 2019) WRs: Davis (4th rd 2020), Shakir (5th rd 2022), Shorter (5th rd 2022), Stevenson (6th rd 2021), Hodgins (6th rd 2020), Ray-Ray McCloud (7th rd 2018), and Austin Proehl (7th rd 2018) Not surprisingly the highest drafted player is the best one in each group. Also not surprising, is the lack of long-term success in finding good WRs. Hard to find good ones without investing drafting capital in the position. Even if Shakir breaks that mold and becomes Diggs 2.0, it's long past time for Beane to invest in a top WR or two. He finally used 1st & 2nd rd picks on talent at RB and TE and both were huge upgrades over the incumbent talent. Cook finished 3rd in scrimmage yards as a 1st year starter last season and Kincaid produced more yards as rookie then Knox had in any season of his 5 year career.

I thought about making this it’s own thread, but I think it works better here. There is a good case for the Bills to draft at least 2 WRs in upcoming draft. The Bills really only have 2 good WRs on the roster (Shakir and Samuel) and only one with experience as a Bill (Shakir). I’m not a Hollins fan and feel he’ll work best as a special teams player rather. He only played on 30% of the Falcons O snaps last season and only was targeted only 30 times. He also isn’t fast. Shorter is under contract, but is a complete unknown, but his size and speed are very similar to Hollins. Given Beane’s statements on improving the speed in the WR room, the best I see for Shorter and Hollins, is playing as the 5th and 6th options. IMHO this opens up two jobs. The first will be a deep threat replacement for Davis and the second will be a player for an expanded Harty role as the 4th receiving option and primary kick returner. Given that backdrop and the depth in this draft, I see Beane grabbing a tall fast receiver like Mitchell, Worthy, Thomas, Pearsall or Walker with one of his top 60 picks and then using one of our 4th rd or 5th rd picks on another speedy receiver. A couple of names that look intriguing are Luke McCaffrey, who actually out ran his brother at the combine, Cornelius Johnson, and a late flier in Bub Means. All 3 guys have decent size and speed.

Bills were 5-5 under Dorsey with 26.2 pts/g and 370.1 yards/g 1st D/g 22 Under Brady 7-2 with 27.1 pts/g and 377.9 yards/g 1st D/g 23.6 The offense was slightly better, but the record was significantly better.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2024/01/22/stefon-diggs-josh-allen-dropped-pass-bills-chiefs/ video in the article.

Don’t we have a guy considered to be the best Nickel Corner in the NFL? Don’t we have a RB who finished 3rd in scrimmage yards with almost 1600 yards? What about Milano and Dawkins? How long until Benard and Kincaid are consider top impact players. Shakir put up elite production on just 45 targets. What might happen if he gets 100 next season? Calling someone “elite” or an impact player is always hindsight anyway. Miller was an impact player when we got him, but isn’t now. Diggs’ impact disappeared mid-season in 2023.

His decline began at least 4 weeks before Brady became OC in week 11. I believe Brady spreading the ball around was partly adjusting to Diggs’ decline. The truth is the offense with Diggs as the focus wasn’t working. Involving Cook, Kincaid and Shakir was necessary to get the offense back on track. If Diggs didn’t like it, it’s just another reason for Beane to have moved on.

I think Bass' issues may stem from Martin as a holder. I think it's one of the reason they brought Haack back.

NC States Payton Wilson. Best ILB on the board but with a second round grade.

Probably. Is the Bills version of ROR? Did Pegula want him gone also?

What I can't get over is the drop in Diggs' catch %. I don't think that has anything to do with Brady, and everything to do with Diggs. It's also not like Diggs stopped being the focus of the passing attack under Brady. Diggs was targeted 111 times from week 7 through the playoffs. Kincaid was targeted 83 times and Shakir 52. The difference was Diggs had 636 yards on his 111 targets, Kincaid 659 on his 83 targets and Shakir 646 on his 52. Hard to blame Brady when Diggs wasn't being effective.

The question of Elite players keeps coming up and is a fair question. Besides Milano (when healthy) and Taron Johnson, who is the elite player on the Bils defense? Trying to be objective, I think the answer is potentially Benard. Being "elite" is also a very hard question. Neither Hyde or Poyer were considered elite when the Bills signed them. On offense, I think we have elite players. Allen, Cook, Dawkins, and Kincaid are all elite players. Torrence and possibly Shakir have that potential as well if they build on last season. Cook finished 4th in rushing and 3rd in scrimmage yards by a RB last season. That's elite production. That's very fair, especially Hyde, Poyer and Diggs.

My problem with the article is that position groups are not equally as important to a team success and shouldn't be graded that way. IMHO QBs and OL are significantly more important to a team's success on offense then any skill group. You can have all the talent in the world at WR, but without a good QB and an Oline to keep him upright, the WR is wasted. Having pro-bowler Barkley at RB hasn't done the NYG much good because they lack a QB and Oline. Also he doesn't account for the difference in quality within the position group. Maybe the best position group in the division is RB. Hall is great, Cook is excellent, the tandem in Miami is very good as is Stevenson (when healthy). IMHO, I'd grade on a scale of 1-10 with 1 being the best, I'd grade Hall a 1, Cook a 2, the Miami tandem a 2 or 3 and Stevenson a 3 or 4. However when looking at QB and using the same scale, I'd give Allen a 1, Tua a 3 or 4, Rodgers a 4 (if healthy) and whomever is playing in NE a 10. Admittedly accounting for those variables makes writing the article harder, but it would make it more accurate.

If he continued to play the entire season like he did the first 6 weeks, he'd still be here. Unfortunately he went from catching 74% of his targets early in the year to 61% over the last 13 weeks. He also dropped a sure fire TD in the playoffs against KC that likely would have won us the game. Produce and no one cares about your attitude. Failing to produce and having a bad attitude gets someone traded.

No team wins with a lousy O-line. Having a bad Oline and a statute at QB is a recipe for disaster. Their defense was elite last season and should be again this year.

This is a what have you done for me lately league. Who was the better player after week 6 last season Diggs or Shakir? The stats and the eye test say Shakir. Maybe Diggs is reborn in the Houston offense, but he is no longer the player we saw 3-4 years ago.

I'm personally going to miss Morse, Hyde and Poyer. They along with DIggs were critical pieces along with Allen in making the Bills a contender. The Hyde Poyer combo was on the NFL's best for years. However, time marches on and none of the 4 players mentioned are what they once were and Beane was correct to move on. Poyer and Hyde should eventually be enshrined in the Bills HOF. They were that good.

The Jets are not the better team even on paper even with the Bills' departures. The Bills are slightly downgraded on paper, but we all know that what happens on paper is meaningless once the season starts. The Bills improved in the second half of the season last year because of 6 1st and 2nd year players (Benford, Benard, Torrence, Cook, Shakir and Kincaid) plus the addition of Douglas in a trade. Is there any reason to think that those kids won't continue to improve and help the team improve with them?

The sports "Media" is already beginning their "analysis" that the Bills are done in 2024. The Athletic (a NYT company) has an article today by the Jets beat writer about how the Jets have the most talented roster in the AFC East (their 80 year old QB not withstanding) and we all know how objective the NYT is. https://theathletic.com/5388899/2024/04/04/jets-best-afc-east-roster-diggs-trade/ How much are we really going to miss any of the players released, traded or not re-signed this off-season? Wide Receivers Let's start with the elephant in the room. The Bills moved on from both veteran boundary receivers including "superstar" Stefon Diggs. Those two accounted for 2349 receiving yards last season and 15 TDs. However, Davis caught only 56% of his targets and after week 6 Diggs caught only 61% of his opportunities. In fact, Diggs, after week 6, was on pace to only put up 830 yards (on 145 targets) in a full season. That would have put him 25 in NFL. He also was clearly no longer a fit in a Joe Brady offense. On the other hand Kincaid and Shakir flourished after week 6. Kincaid was inactive in week 6, but over the next 13 weeks (including the playoffs) his usage increased and he paced for 860 yards over a 17 week season. His usage in his second season should increase further with Diggs gone. Shakir's game also changed after week 6. In the first 6 weeks last season, Shakir averaged less than 1 target per game. 1 target! After week six, Shakir was on pace for 845 yards (on only 68 targets). I also researched how the average WR drafted from 20-40 over the last 5 years produced in his rookie season. The average was about 660 yards. There were some stars like Jefferson, Tee Higgins, and Jordan Addison and some duds, but for the most part most were solid to good. I'm confident that Beane & Co will find someone in the draft to help the Bills stretch the field with their 1st pick, something we didn't have last season. In addition we added proven slot receiver Curtis Samuel who should flourish in Brady's offense and we aren't going to miss the departed Harty or Sherfield at all. Defensive Line Are we really going to miss Phillips, Lawson, Ford or Settle? No didn't think so. That leaves Leonard Floyd. No BS, we are going to miss him. The hope here is that Miller can capture at least some of his old form (he did look better in the playoffs) and that he and Epenesa can be effective enough to allow Rousseau to go back to his natural position and make up for the loss of Floyd. My hope is that they draft a edge rusher in the 2nd rd to help make up for the loss. Offensive line Out with Bates and Morse. Considering Bates played all of 35 snaps, I don't think he'll be missed. Morse on the other hand has been the Bills center for the last 5 years and has done a very good job, but at 32 it is a reasonable question to ask how much he has left in the tank. Beane solution is moving McGovern to center and creating a competition for the guard spot to returnee David Edwards (148 snaps last season - the most by a Bills backup OL) and presumably veteran La'el Collins. Collins has started 86 of 89 career games as a rt, but missed last season with injuries. Running back Lat Murray, Hines and Harris are gone. They won't be missed. Cook became a star last season. Ty Johnson also returns and was very effective last season in limited reps. The Bills will likely add another back at some point Safety Out with Hyde and Poyer and in with Mike Edwards and Rapp becomes a starter. This is a slight downgrade based on last year's grades, but it was time to move on from Hyde and Poyer. Corners and Linebackers White and Dodson are the big name departures, but given White's injury history and the return to health of pro bower Matt Milano, the play of Taron Johnson, Douglas, Benard and Benford, I don't think we'll miss either player. On paper the Bills are slightly downgraded. We have fair questions at WR, OL, DL and safety. However, I'm not worried about the wide receivers. To me, removing DIggs and Davis has opened the opportunity for Allen to longer have to worry about Diggs getting targets. He can now focus solely on who is open. At safety, the declines in Poyer and Hyde were very noticeable and Rapp and Edwards should give us at least when the vets did. I'm also not worried about the OL. Torrence and Brown should continue to improve and McGovern proved he has a very capable interior lineman last season. The only loss the really worries me is Floyd. Despite the downgrades on paper, I can see the Bills actually improving next season. I think the offense will be better and more consistent. Besides Allen and Dawkins, the heart of the offense are all young players in Brown, Torrence, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook who should continue to improve. On defense it's much the same story. Oliver, Milano and T Johnson are the core, but they received a significant lift from improving kids Benford, Benard, and Rousseau.

6 playoff appearances in 7 seasons after not appearing in the playoffs for 17 years. 4 straight division titles after not winning the division title since 1995. That's why he gets a pass so far. Also he brought in All-pro caliber players like Hyde, Poyer, Morse, and Diggs. He also drafted current starters Kincaid, Oliver, Torrence, Cook, Allen, Shakir, Rousseau, Brown, Taron Johnson, and Benford, plus solid role players like Epenesa, Phillips (now a starter on his new team), Davis, Knox, Singletary, Moss, Dane Jackson and Neal. Face-it, Beane has done a very good job, and has been the Bills best GM since Polian.

Fiske is the highest rated player on my board remaining. I love Lassiter, but I don't think CB is a position of need this early in the draft with Benford and Douglas as the starters and my belief that management still has hopes for Elam. Drafting Lassiter here would be a statement that Elam was a wasted draft pick. There are also good corners to be had later in the draft. I also like Trice, Kneeland and Bullock here, but safety would be best in the 3rd if Beane can find us a pick there.