Mikie2times

I wanted to take a step back from the week to week emotional roller coaster, because honestly, this season has felt ugly at times. We’ve been inconsistent, we’ve had roster holes, the injuries have piled up, and there have been stretches where we looked downright horrendous. But when you zoom out and look at the actual playoff field… it’s kind of stunning. The worst outcome for us is basically a 50/50 matchup, and probably not even against Mahomes. Could we lose to several of these teams? Sure. But the idea that we wouldn’t be right in every single one of these games is pretty silly. All of these matchups are close on paper or lean our way. I ordered them by how dangerous I think they are to us, and it made me feel way better about our prospects. Probably as good as I ever have felt. Houston If this matchup happens, it’s going to be tight. They’ve played Allen as well as anyone the last two years. 23–20 loss last year, 23–19 loss this year. Both games were basically a pass protection disaster for us and our offense slogged. It will be a race to 21. A true toss up. Field: Colts, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals Colts seem cooked, but the other three would all be battles. Nothing new there. Ideally we avoid these teams as long as possible, but none of them are some unstoppable monster. All 50/50 type outcomes. Jacksonville A tick ahead of Buffalo in DVOA and playing really well. Coen has completely changed their trajectory. They’ve got legit wins: Chiefs, 49ers, Texans, Chargers. Matchup wise, their defense is built to take away the run. Offensively they’ll try to run a ton, even though the efficiency is mediocre. They’ve had our number a bit, but how much does that really matter now? I see this one similar to Houston, toss up, maybe slight edge to Buffalo. Denver Last year’s Denver team was actually rated better in DVOA than this year’s version. Last year’s playoff game was 13–7 halfway through the third quarter until the Ty Johnson 4th down play cracked it open. This year’s Denver? Not as good. It’ll be a game, but Buffalo should have the edge. Los Angeles DVOA basically has this team as a .500 group. Tons of OL injuries, very up and down, and outside of those early big wins vs KC and DEN, it’s been pretty uneven. They can’t stop the run well, and while they want to run a lot, they’re not efficient. This could be competitive for a bit, but Buffalo should have an edge. New England This NE team is the lowest DVOA 11–2 team since 1978. Run defense is slipping. They don’t run the ball particularly well. Maye flashes but he’s still a young QB. We all saw the first matchup, tons of things went wrong and it still came down to a FG. This is a Wild Card level team which isn't an insult to them. It's good progress. We should win in Foxborough and I expect we will. Pittsburgh We just match up too well here. We own Tomlin lately, and they had no schematic answers on either side of the ball. Complete mismatch in the ground game and QB play. This is the most comfortable matchup on the board.

Far and away the best thing for them. His offense would make McD blush. Problem is, who the hell you going to bring on now? Timing is awful.

So sad we are waiting to the final game for these.

I still think a QB who can be systematic, accurate, and on time is the most dangerous skill set for a QB. Mobility is great, but out of structure isn't as predictable or consistent. Today's QB's are much better out of structure but very few have the consistency we have seen from the true pocket passers.

Same was said about Diggs, Daboll, Allens breakup, you never know which one of these stories is true.

The passing offense generated 3 TD's vs the Bengals. But realistically, Allen was 2 of them completely. Which is what we get from our passing game. When Allen has been boxed in or the run game is not working, which was the case in Patriots, Falcons, Texans, we just don't have a whole lot. It's turns into screens, check downs, short TE passes. We literally have to be perfect, which usually doesn't happen because these defenses are usually above average. This notion that since we are productive as a whole we are fine is failing to look at how that production is happening and how it fails. The missing component of our offense is on time intermediate and downfield passing. We are solely dependent on Josh to create that right now.

This is the game I bought the late season Sunday ticket for. Only cost like 40 bucks for the end of the year. I would be getting the Chargers Sunday.

Certainly is. To use his own words, he's a fundamentally strong coach. I really don't think he prevents us from winning, especially with a better roster. But I also don't think he's vaulting us to the forefront. I put most of that on his reluctance to add top coordinators outside the team including on his own defense. Watching what Ben Johnson does with Chicago's offense is just, wow. The motion, misdirection, all of it. It's a serious advantage. He's not bringing that type of advantage to the team.

got that right

Amazing throw. I would argue this isn’t even in Allen’s top 3. Just off the top of my head, the pass to Murray in the Chiefs game, the Ty Johnson throw in the Denver playoff game, the TD to Knox in the Patriots playoff game, the throw to Shakir vs Baltimore regular season last year. I mean this is literally just the tip of the iceberg. He has some of the most improbable completions we have ever seen.

Bruce still gets the nod, but Allen certainly can pass him. Bruce is the NFL sack leader. An equally freakish talent and the most productive player in NFL history at probably the most important defensive position.

I don't think most teams are rushing him aggressively like they used to. It's usually much more controlled. He just doesn't have as many chances to stick his foot in the ground and run decisively up the middle as we saw so much in the past. That said, it was GREAT seeing that Pittsburgh/playoff like TD run today. I also would really like to see Brady scheme more runs for him. I remember Daboll scheming up some sweeps for him, pulled lineman, and designed run plays that can really bring a new dimension to the offense. Sign me up for some Higgins. Josh would be devastating with that type of WR.

It's usually hyperbole nowadays for these talking heads to try and force all these GOAT conversations. But the reality is, with Josh, he wins in ways that nobody else has before. That conversation doesn't need to be about if he's the best. It's just about what he brings as an individual player to the offense. Nobody has ever won like this or made these types of plays as consistently as him. Favre, Elway, Vick, Fran, Mahomes all those guys could do it, but not by air or land, and if so, not as consistently and as inconceivably consistent. He is the GOAT playmaker at QB and from my view fairly undisputed.

Hes “sneaky good”

This team isn’t anything without Josh. It really is that simple.

I'm not the person who declared one side of evaluation to be meaningless. The eye test does matter, but I don't think any person is capable of using that alone to evaluate dozens of players and then forming a rational conclusion on who is the most impactful. Perhaps if that is all you do for a living but I assume you're not a NFL scout. If you aren't comparing him to his peers, than what are we talking about? We know he's good. This conversation is about if he's top 15-20 good? Is it not reasonable to assume his peers who are producing more havoc also do the same things you're calling out or do we have the only DE in the NFL capable of producing between the numbers? Better yet, the only one who is largely, ONLY capable of producing between the numbers.

You already formed your entire argument on what you see and invalidated any statistical measure at the position. Statistics that are meaningful, but you still dismiss the benefit of that knowledge all together. Such a view isn't capable of being applied to other players equally for context. It's has no real anchor in what a player like him should be doing relative to peers. When challenged you revert to "Other people just don't understand football". Somebody else called out "fantasy" mind set. I here similar arguments all the time for McD. It is our seething blind hate that clouds are ability to be rational therefor our opinion must not be relevant. Here, it's just are lack of football understanding. I played from 9 until 1/2 year in college, so your speculation, along with the other "fantasy" brain call outs is just off the mark. The players in his weight class of pay make a higher rate of negative plays. That can be sacks, TFLs, or even pressures. You don't care, I get it, but the history of the game does, the actual game does. Negative plays do matter. If you're basing your opinion on how good he's been with run fits, anchoring, double teams, helping others produce, things that don't get on a stat sheet, than great! But you still won't find any players in his weight class failing to get on a stat sheet at the rate he does. Which IS part of the conversation. Ultimately those measurements are how elite production is defined and paid out for at his position. Anchoring and run defense is not what gets a DE in the NFL upper money bands. He's a good player but overpaid relative to the skill set he is giving the Bills. Paid enough that further investment in players that can actually generate the negative outcomes at DE is greatly reduced. You clearly don't agree, but lets not pretend it's based on some higher level understanding of the game.

The moment you understand your thoughts aren't objective

Yards are math, points are math, sacks are math, tackles for a loss are math, hits are math, wins are math. All of which can be applied objectively against his peers. What goes on in your head can't be applied that way. If he's so good, the traces of that performance would carry over relative to his peers in the "math". He's performing like a 10-15 million dollar player. It's not anymore complicated than that.

You see the chart I posted over the whole season, relative to his pears. Sacks, TFLs, QB Hits. Underperforming on a per game basis relative to everybody in his pay range. It's not unreasonable to use objective tools in context over large samples vs your subjective view on how sneaky good he is.

According to DVOA they were the worst 10-2 team since 1978 (when they started measuring it). That is a fairly unbiased data point on who they actually are relative to record.

Here is a stack rank by average contract value. Then it shows the sacks, TFL, QB Hits, sum of all 3, then the sum of all 3 divided by games. Rousseau is the lowest in the per game count of any DE making what he makes, and you don't find anyone lower than him until you hit Hasson Reddick who is making 6 million less per year. His per game counts put him firmly in the 11-15 million dollar range.

Groot prevents further premium investment at DE. I would rather take my chances in Free Agency with a Bosa or a Floyd which still preserves the ability to go after a Miller type. I really like Shakir, but he has been a niche YAC player. He hasn’t even been able to fulfill the traditional slot route tree. Pure screen guy. When your entire WR room sucks having him as the gold piece isn’t exactly shiny. Shaq Thompson is outplaying Bernard. A street free agent nobody wanted. Who was going to come in an pay out 15 pound MLB prime dollars at the end of his contract? Beane jumped the gun like he did with Knox when he had no risk of waiting. At which point, if he did wait, he would have found out his market value is in the toilet. Palmer and Samuel are just brutal signings at this point. Somehow Beane thinks you can create a great WR in the slot aggregate with guys that have barely been able to stay healthy or reach high production levels in past lives. Benford was a good signing, but the concussion stuff will always be a risk with him. The Hoecht was also a good signing, but we did so knowing about the PED issues, guaranteed lost time, increased injury risks associated. At the end of the day it’s more of the same with Beane. Ever since Diggs and Von burned him he’s afraid to take any swings. He would rather invest in numbers with the hope a guy breaks thru or avoids injury despite being injured most his career. A whole lot of hope and wishing. Very little that can be counted on. He needs to go back to taking some swings and get out of his little baller ways.

-Darnold will Implode in the postseason -Jackson will implode in the postseason -Allen has no support So my guess is Baker