Mayock said that three years after he was drafted. Revisionist history and he was not saying that in 2007 right after the draft.
I will give you its more of a weighted lottery. The bust rate increases with every round for sure. And the pro bowl and HOF numbers are more frequent in the earlier rounds.
But the fact of the matter is these guys have no special talent to predict future performance. They all miss on guys terribly.
How many GMs passed on Brady, Wilson, Brees, and Rodgers? You can't write the history of the NFL without those guys and they were passed over by just about every GM and multiple times in many cases.