No_Matter_What

If the model is correct then everything you mention is already accounted for, that is the point. First bolded - yeah it si easier to stop them from own 10 than 25, but in first case you lose by 7, whereas in second scenario you only lose by 4. Thats the difference. TD wins the game. Second bolded makes little sense. If you are not getting the ball back, you already lost the game. They have 4.37min and a good kicker. There is NO WAY you win that game without getting the ball back, thats the point.

Agreed. Other than that, I don't know. If Colts win, they are pretty likely to go on Arrowhead in WC, which would be great for us - much better than Raiders or Steelers imo.

There are so many options how this all can end up that it is almost impossible to root for any team at this point imo.

Use this one https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/indianapolis-colts-nfl-playoff-picture.html ESPN is better if you want to see matchups, this one is great if you want to see what teams need in order to make PO, 3rd seed etc.

They can, but it would be very unlikely. They'd need Dolphins, Raiders and Ravens all win.

@Big Blitz @Billznut @Brianmoorman4jesus @Steptide @motorj @stevestojan @RobbRiddicksTDLeap @Process @Heitz @Evian @RaoulDuke79 Not saying the model is perfect but like expected analytics says that kicking FG actually IS playing to win (more often than going for TD)

Yeah this would be nice, esp. since I feel we have much better chance to beat Titans in divisional than Chiefs, and there would be 2 chances to knock out Chiefs before we play them. Will not happen though. Anyway, it does not matter today. Like you said, kill the Jets.

They did imo. Kick the FG, stop the Chiefs, score a TD. Almost everybody here says go for TD like it would mean a win - no, it would only tie a game and you would still need to stop Chiefs to win. I am not saying I am sure it was a good decision but it either was or at least it was much much closer than people here are making it to be. Woould love to see some analytics on it, I hope it gets posted later.

Is there a free site where you can filter stats by years in the league? E.g. when I want to compare only these 2year receivers (or rookies or whatever)?

Again, so if you think that Broncos were not getting ball back you do realize that it did not matter if they scored TD since Chiefs were to score anyway?

You do realize that even if you convert that TD you need to stop KC anyway, right?

I guess I am in a minority but I'd kick FG here too.

You were saying?

Yeah unfortunately I don't think he understands what analytics means. Somebody should tell him that weather/score can be easily accounted for. Again, this reminds me of my poker days. You could explain all the maths to some old school live players and they would argue some nonsense based on their limited experience.

Right. I never stop wondering how this defense can be so good with so many bad players, including MLB who according to some lacks everything to play the position and is a pure liability. To be clear, I don't pretend that I am capable of objectively judge his play but it seems quite clear that this coaching staff has significantly different opinion on TE than most fans here. I am already looking forward 100 pages long thread when we re-sign him.

Why don't you post more? Your endless optimism is sorely missed here.

Chiefs play on Saturday, i.e. before Titans. They are not resting anyone.

Agree with all of this but at the same time I agree with @Thurman#1 that I wouldn't call this situation "they can do whatever they want". I do agree they can sign almost whoever they want but if it is really a big name then it might the only bigger FA signature. Doing what you mention gets them over $30m in space but with only 35 players signed, so you need 18 more. Even if lets say 15 of them are rookies and cheap players up to $2m hits these guys still take $18-20m, and you don't have much room left. I also guess they will want to keep Wallace and Phillips and I don't think Beane will be able to sign Wallace for less than §4m cap hit first year. We also need backup QB who might be more expensive than Mitch this year (or otherwise he may really suck, which I don't prefer). This is very far from "they can do whatever they want" in my book. But they can sign big name or two, thats for sure. But bolded is really maximum what they can do (provided that "couple" means literally two) and it will not be easy imo.

As a fan from Europe, I prefer either first game on Saturday or one of first two games on Sunday. The other games (all 8.15pm ET) are at horrible local time (2.15am). Sunday 1pm game is probably the best, followed by Sunday 4pm.

There is definitely something to it. But so far Allen has played 4 games in playoffs. Won both home games and lost both road games. So there is that.

Not to mention we are going there one more time this season...

Updated after Panthers and Falcons wins. Might get shot on 26th if we get to the SB (Bucs, Packers, Cards or Eagles).

Seems that many of you guys would draft Trevor Penning and move Dawkins inside. I am just curious - is there any reason to believe that Dawkins would be any good playing guard? Did he play that position in the past? Also this. We pay Dawkins to play LT and I guess he feels like one. Is it that easy just to draft someone else and "downgrade" Dion? He'd certainly not be happy about it. Which does not mean he is not a team first guy and would be able to handle it, I just think that is something to consider.

It doesn't work like this. If we won that game, all other games would've gone differently.

He's right, 1&3 are. The only difference is a game which is irrelevant.