No_Matter_What

Well this was just terrible by McD. Hopefully he learns from it.

Well that was a rookie play.

Titans!

My bad, I misclicked playoff calculator. Sorry @GunnerBill

Raiders if Pats win, Pats if Dolphins win.

I said it upthread. Most people wanted to avoid Colts or Patriots. Now we want to avoid Chargers lol, while Raiders might be actually the hottest team right now. I don't think it matter much, just crush the Jets and bring on anybody. Only other thing which mattered to me today was Titans win, I really don't want Chiefs to be 1 seed (not because they scare me, but I don't want them to have one less game).

Titans - Texans 21-18. Wtf Titans don't give up 1st seed to the Chiefs.

Texans are quietly making it a game vs Titans.

Funny thing is that half of the board wanted to avoid Colts the other half Pats and we may get Raiders who might be actually the hottest and most dangerous of them all.

Speaking of sacks, I find it absolutely amazing that there are 2 (!) AFC teams which have 4 (!) players who have more sacks than any Bills player. Didn't check the NFC.

Well if Steelers win and Colts lose Steelers are in. Doesn't look impossible now.

+ Titans no doubt.

If the model is correct then everything you mention is already accounted for, that is the point. First bolded - yeah it si easier to stop them from own 10 than 25, but in first case you lose by 7, whereas in second scenario you only lose by 4. Thats the difference. TD wins the game. Second bolded makes little sense. If you are not getting the ball back, you already lost the game. They have 4.37min and a good kicker. There is NO WAY you win that game without getting the ball back, thats the point.

Agreed. Other than that, I don't know. If Colts win, they are pretty likely to go on Arrowhead in WC, which would be great for us - much better than Raiders or Steelers imo.

There are so many options how this all can end up that it is almost impossible to root for any team at this point imo.

Use this one https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/indianapolis-colts-nfl-playoff-picture.html ESPN is better if you want to see matchups, this one is great if you want to see what teams need in order to make PO, 3rd seed etc.

They can, but it would be very unlikely. They'd need Dolphins, Raiders and Ravens all win.

@Big Blitz @Billznut @Brianmoorman4jesus @Steptide @motorj @stevestojan @RobbRiddicksTDLeap @Process @Heitz @Evian @RaoulDuke79 Not saying the model is perfect but like expected analytics says that kicking FG actually IS playing to win (more often than going for TD)

Yeah this would be nice, esp. since I feel we have much better chance to beat Titans in divisional than Chiefs, and there would be 2 chances to knock out Chiefs before we play them. Will not happen though. Anyway, it does not matter today. Like you said, kill the Jets.

They did imo. Kick the FG, stop the Chiefs, score a TD. Almost everybody here says go for TD like it would mean a win - no, it would only tie a game and you would still need to stop Chiefs to win. I am not saying I am sure it was a good decision but it either was or at least it was much much closer than people here are making it to be. Woould love to see some analytics on it, I hope it gets posted later.

Is there a free site where you can filter stats by years in the league? E.g. when I want to compare only these 2year receivers (or rookies or whatever)?

Again, so if you think that Broncos were not getting ball back you do realize that it did not matter if they scored TD since Chiefs were to score anyway?

You do realize that even if you convert that TD you need to stop KC anyway, right?

I guess I am in a minority but I'd kick FG here too.

You were saying?