No_Matter_What

Would be cool esp. if Bills are really targeting Legette or Franklin (I know you don't want him in the first but maybe the Bills do). Maybe to do 2 small trade down to make sure you don't fall too much and land a guy you want. Fwiw, in our mock 49ers traded up with Eagles to get Mims, while the Chiefs were trying to do the same.

Gunner, sort of random thought, but do you see any reasonable chance that either Ravens would want to jump the Lions or that 49ers would want to jump Ravens/Lions? We just had local community moct draft with me as Bills GM and I managed to trade down with Ravens - picks 28 and 200 for 30 and 113. I risked almost nothing and got Legette. Ravens did it for Barton IIRC. I really liked it for Bills, pick 113 is a nice extra asset to move up in the 2nd. Do you find this realistic in real life?

Wait, so Legette is there at 60? Then just pick him and call it a day. Thomas and Legette? Are you serious? If both pan out, we are unstoppable for next 4 years and then we pay one and get comp pick for the other. If one pans out it's still great.

It's actually 2 WRs but the point remains.

I love this result, it is at least good experiment to see what a trade down like this can mean and who can we miss out on. Or, on the other side, who we can still get lower. 41 is little too low for my taste but still a good exercise.

I love what we are doing. Everybody and their mother knows we are drafting WR round 1 so we don't even try to hide it and are doing all the work that can be done. This way nobody knows which WRs are we in fact interested in.

Lol I just found out and came to post this. Sportrac doesn't say anything about incentives but it doesn't mean there aren't any. Anyway, it is a low cap hit, but at the same time it's all guaranteed, so he is either lock to make the roster or leaves us with $1,5M dead cap and no savings if cut.

Who from tier 2 and 3 would you consider for Bills at 28? I guess tier 1 is out of question and I doubt tier 4 and below could even be BPA on your board when we pick.

He was taken at 12 😀

Ok, np. But since you wrote the bolded, it seems that I wasn't clear enough. What I mean is that once Bills are on the clock, you wouldn't start the poll immediately, but give all other GMs a chance to send their offers (within an hour or so). If there was any reasonable offer, you would include in the poll. So the poll would be very specific, something like - player A - player B, etc - trade down with team X (pick 28 for picks Y and Z)

Virgil, did you think about possibility of including trade down in the poll when Bills come on the clock? I know it is not easy to manage but something like giving all other GMs one hour to send you offers and if there are any include these in the poll? Just a thought since people are talking about trading down quite a lot around here imo.

While I understand what you are saying, I wouldn't call a chance to draft Nabers a "tough spot to be in"

This is spot on. Just to provide some data - I like to read mock draft on one Commanders forum, they do 7 rounds every year and seem pretty knowledgable to me (well, Bills GM made some odd choices this year but that is small sample size). https://es.redskins.com/topic/446775-2024-es-gms-mock-draft/ Below is comparison how WRs were taken in both drafts: Marvin Harrison 4 / 5 / +1 Rome Odunze 6 / 10 / +4 Malik Nabers 7 / 9 / + 2 Brian Thomes 12 / 26 / +14 Adonai Mitchell 28 / 32 / +4 Troy Franklin 30 / 46 / +16 Xavier Worthy 33 / 47 / +14 Xavier Legette 35 / 33 / - 2 Ladd McConkey 36 / 36 / 0 Keon Coleman 43 / 49 / +6 Ricky Pearsall 46 / 54 / +8 Roman Wilson 48 / 43 / -5 Malachi Corley 53/ 64 / +11 Jermaine Burton 54 / 72 / +18 Ja'Lynn Polk 58 / 70 / +12 So, with 4 more picks in 2nd round to go, in TBD mock draft 6 WRs were selected in the 1st round, 9 in the 2nd (15 total). At their forum, only 5 in the 1st round and 8 in the 2nd (13 total). Only Legette and Wilson were picked a little earlier, McConkey at the same spot, and 12 WRs were picked later, many of them A LOT later (Thomas, Worthy, Burton, Polk). On average, first 15 WRs went 7 spots later than in TBD draft. I know it is just one alternative mock draft but I am pretty sure Bills fans have strong bias towards WRs. EDIT: If draft went their way, Nabers/Odunze would be easier to trade up for, if not Thomas would be basically a Bill, and it would also be much more realistic to trade up for our guy in 2nd round. I really hope/think some of this will be the case in real draft.

Slovakia.

I am not able to re-watch our PO losses, and I don't have good memory, so I forgot about this. Man it is painful to watch 😢

I am really puzzled by number of fans who are willing to sell the farm for massive trade up. I for one want to stay put and take the best WR available (or BPA if he is clearly graded above best WR), or maybe make a small trade up for Thomas if he falls, but other than that - stay where you are and get a good player there. Price for top 10 pick is too steep for us. I also want to keep next years pick we just got from Texans. The more players you draft the higher chance that you actually hit.

Hmm but it is not the literal pick we landed, is it? I thought we got 2nd rounder in 2025 unfortunately.

Do we know all the details now? Compensation and 2024/2025 cap hits?

Wow the compensation seems brutal. Anyway, like I said, he was always tradeable this year. I just thought it would be for 1st this year so we can draft his replacement. This seems crazy.

16 picks in and only 3 defensive players. I am going to look back and try to find out if anything remotely close happened in recent years. Edit: Actually it did. 3 years ago, only 4 defensive players were selected in top 16 - Horn, Surtain, Parsons and Collins.

Sportrac has everybody in now. DeShawn Williams vet min with only $15k guaranteed (great), Clapp also close to vet min with $287k dead cap if cut and Austin Johnson $2.3M cap hit with $1.2M in void years. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ Sportrac says we have $8.5M cap space, Overthecap has us at $7.5M. Which is interesting, since it seems like a free money now. After 1 June, we will have $10M more, which is just enough for rookies (~$2M), 52nd and 53rd player (less than $2M), PS players ($4M) and some in season injury moves ($2-3M). So whatever we have now seems like money we can freely use. I wonder if Beane planned to sign somebody more expensive and it didn't work out. It also shows why Beane didn't convert everything he could from Allen's contract this year - he didn't need to.

We could do this, and then move up from 44. 4th comp gets you to 40, add one of our late 5th and we could go back to 37 or so. If we could get Legette this way at 37 and add pick 77 I would be more than happy. But it is very risky so I'd probably rather stay put and pick our WR at 28.

I just hope that Williams has close to zero guaranteed money (like Toohill, unlike Morrow), so he can be easily cut when we keep 5-6th round rookie.

Contract details are on Sportrac. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/taron-johnson-25222/ Extension saved about $4M cap space this year, next year's cap hit only $8M.

Appreciate effort put into this mock. Also would be very pleased with the outcome for the Bills. One question though - why would Vikings do this trade? Bears are not taking 2nd QB and Jets won't draft one this year. Do you think someone could jump them for McCarthy?