DCOrange

Yep, he's been saying for awhile now that the only QB the Broncos were interested in was Trey Lance and that if he wasn't available, they had a deal in place for Bridgewater.

Not going to bother starting my own thread for it, but if you'd like to peruse the scouting reports I wrote up for this year's class (as well as the last few classes), here's a link: https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2021-draft/overall-grades/ The short version of how I feel about each of them: Trevor Lawrence - 96 - generational type prospect, most likely comp is a poor man's Rodgers Justin Fields - 87 - high floor, high ceiling prospect, most likely comp is bigger Tyrod Taylor Trey Lance - 86 - wider range of outcomes than Fields but similarly high grade, most likely comp is what we got out of Josh Allen the first two years Zach Wilson - 84 - A tier below Fields and Lance as I just don't think his ceiling is as high, most likely comp is a less mobile Kyler Murray Kellen Mond - 79 - The range of outcomes from here on out are wider and or less exciting; I have his most likely comp as Geno Smith with the potential to be a Kaepernick type player (and perhaps in the right scheme, that could be a really valuable guy like it briefly was for Kaep) Mac Jones - 76 - meh floor, meh ceiling, most likely comp is a poor man's Andy Dalton. I have his ceiling as a Brad Johnson type, which is fine but not really what you're looking for in this era of football IMO Davis Mills - 75 - think he likely amounts to nothing (most likely comp being Josh Rosen) but an intriguing ceiling if all goes well (less combustible Jameis Winston) Kyle Trask - 67 - low floor, low ceiling, barely draftable to me. Most likely comp is Ryan Nassib and ceiling is Kyle Orton If I could go back and do it again, I think I probably made my original scale to congested so, for example, I have like 4 guys at a 79 over the past 5 drafts. I should have made it so that players like Trask would be closer to a 0 so that the grades were more spread out but I don't want to go back and change it at this point because that would feel like potentially cheating haha.

Agreed, but I think all the indications (at least that are public knowledge) is that Lance is driven like that too.

No, I couldn't find All-22 film of Coastal Carolina. I heard he wasn't as bad as the numbers look in that one though. The Houston game was probably his worst that I saw. Re: captain, from what I've heard, it's tradition to only let seniors be voted as captains but the coaches made Wilson a captain once he won the starting job.

Good stuff. Mirrored a lot of my notes as well though I think I'm definitely higher on Fields' accuracy than you. I charted him as comfortably the most accurate in the class (roughly 80% of his passes on target in the games I watched; Wilson is #2 at 73%). I noted that Fields had the ball batted at the line a weirdly high number of times as well, but you're right it was very high with Mac. I'm definitely lower on Wilson than you are, but I don't think your notes on him are off base or anything. I'm not sure if I'm going to finish scouting Kellen Mond like I had hoped; it'll probably depend on how much the second Covid shot knocks me on my ass. Hopefully I'll be fine and I'll be able to wrap his film up. So far I'm finished with the main 5 + Trask and Davis Mills.

Not sure if it's flat out not seeing them or seeing them and just not wanting to make the throw for whatever reason, but I'm talking about guys running wide open that he just doesn't throw the ball to. Very similar to what a lot of people complained about with Tyrod Taylor here. When he does let it rip, he's the most accurate passer in the class.

From Tony Pauline: Imagine feeling like you need to get a rookie that can play right away when your original plan was to start Joe Flacco at this point in his career. https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-draft-rumors-buzz-draft-week/

I'm not going to pretend I've watched legit full film on a lot of prospects this year outside of the QBs as I always do, but I've watched a few games of Rousseau's and his film just isn't very good, especially when he's coming off the edge. But having said that, he has some tools that don't come along every day, good production (though I don't think the numbers paint a good picture of what he really is right now) and if I recall correctly, one of the guys on their defensive staff used to work for us. I think he checks a lot of the boxes that we tend to favor.

Starting to have a gut feeling that Gregory Rousseau will be the pick unless someone unexpectedly slides.

It's an interesting idea and one that I've argued for in the past, but Baltimore is pretty much the last team that should consider doing it. You should do this when you have a coach that basically does the pre-snap work for the QB (like Shanahan and McVay) and a QB that is easily replaceable (like Garappolo and Goff). You don't do it when your QB is maybe the most difficult player in the league to replace as is the case with Lamar.

I don't think it's all that interesting to be honest. The game has evolved so much from where it was in the past. Running QBs were barely even a thing up until the past 10 or so years and there's never really been a QB like Lamar before so obviously there's also never been a super bowl winner like Lamar before. None of that means Lamar is incapable of winning a Super Bowl; far worse QBs have won them. Not saying any of this to suggest Lamar should be ahead of Allen right now in these dumb rankings. I do want to see Allen match this past season's play or at least be close to it before I'd cement my opinion, but I'd lean towards Allen at this point. Allen clearly had the better season last year. Lamar clearly had the better season the previous two. Ultimately it boils down to whether or not you think this past season is more indicative of the future than the prior years were and we're all obviously hoping and feeling pretty confident that it is.

Some of these guys I'd be okay with at #30 as well, but the ones that seem to be getting mocked roughly around our range that I like are: Ifeatu Melifonwu - at least partially because it would be fun to have a Syracuse guy on the team, but I also think his skillset would be a good fit for us and the 2nd round is late enough to gamble on his upside Rondale Moore - injuries probably scare me off in the 1st round, but Day 2 would make me very happy Joseph Ossai - might be my preferred choice at #30, but seems like he's generally projected to be a mid to late 2nd round pick Brady Christenson - Just seems like kinda my type as far as OLine guys go; coming from a dominant college OLine and plays with really good technique and instincts Amari Rodgers - I'd be really happy with him in the 3rd round and probably okay with it in the 2nd. Can line up in the slot or in the backfield and return punts, good hands, really good after the catch both shaking tacklers and also just eluding them entirely.

I'm definitely rooting for Mills. Of the QBs I watched, I think he made 2 of the top 3 or 4 throws I saw. At his highest moments, it looks like Philip Rivers out there; throwing balls with absurd anticipation and putting just the right touch on it to get the ball up over the LBs and underneath the safeties. But his lows are so low and it just scares me seeing this dude with a bulky knee brace moving around so awkwardly. I try to ignore injuries in my grading and just stick to grading the skillset, but it looks to me like his knee is still affecting his play.

No. Their backups are James Morgan and Mike White. They were rumored to be a landing spot for Alex Smith but obviously he retired.

I'm still hoping to get through Kellen Mond and maybe Jamie Newman, but my grades on the QBs that I've scouted this year: Trevor Lawrence - 96 - lock to be a franchise QB Justin Fields - 87 - Top 15 pick, skeptical he ever reaches his ceiling (being a top 10 QB) but think he's a high floor, high ceiling guy. Trey Lance - 86 - Top 15 pick, lower floor and slightly lower ceiling than Fields, but should still be at worst a below average starter and has a pretty high ceiling Zach Wilson - 81 - Late 1st round pick, just don't think he has the potential to be an elite QB; I have his ceiling as a less mobile Kyler Murray. Mac Jones - 76 - 3rd round pick, I think he most likely settles in as a backup. Ceiling to me is Brad Johnson. Davis Mills - 75 - 3rd round pick, higher ceiling than Mac Jones but I'm skeptical he'll get there. If I had to bet, I'd say he's fighting for a roster spot in a few years; he just doesn't look healthy to me but he does do some special stuff. Kyle Trask - 67 - 6th-7th round pick, I just don't see it at all. I think his ceiling is Kyle Orton and his floor is a practice-squad guy.

I'm kinda bewildered by Fields seemingly sliding. I do think his knack for missing open guys is concerning, but I think he's a high floor, high ceiling player. He's an elite passer with elite athleticism; teams should be fawning over him. Instead, there's been a lot of reports that the media/draft twitter community is higher on Fields than the NFL is and that he could end up sliding. We now even have Allbright speculating he could slide into the teens and Chris Simms projecting that he's taken with the last pick in the first round. I feel very confident that in the very least, you get a bigger and more accurate Tyrod Taylor out of him and he has top 10 QB potential. That's a great range of outcomes. I'm not even sure Mac's ceiling is above that baseline.

It really shouldn't. Lance is more pro-ready than anyone outside of Lawrence IMO, particularly for what Shanahan wants to do with his offense. The team that really should have tried the graduating QBs idea was the Rams. McVay really just needs a robot that will make the throws he tells them to make; that isn't all that hard to find. They screwed the pooch giving Goff the contract they did. If the Ravens were to try it (which they won't), it would mean rebuilding the entire offense around the new QB's skillset. Nobody can replicate what Lamar does for better or worse and that includes Fields.

He was literally comped to Cam Newton throughout the draft process.

I don't think there's really any chance whatsoever that Fields can do what Lamar does as a runner. Fields is a significantly better passer though. At any rate, they already found an MVP caliber QB; I can't imagine they'll move on from him.

I would agree he just didn't pass the eye test this year after passing as a rookie. A look at some related numbers (league ranking in parentheses) is a bit of a mixed bag. He's been mostly above average as a runner across both seasons Yards After Contact per Attempt: 2019: 3.00 (21) 2020: 3.17 (14) Tackles Avoided per Attempt: 2019: 0.24 (7) 2020: 0.21 (9) Rush Yards over Expected per Attempt: 2019: 0.43 (17) 2020: 0.29 (22) The issue continues to be that he struggles as a pass blocker and receiver. Drop % (minimum of 20 targets for a RB) 2019: 12.8% (5) 2020: 10.6% (10)

I'd gladly take Moore but I don't want to trade up and I think he'll end up going in the late teens or early 20s.

Ben Allbright who's called a few of the Bills recent picks is also among those that thinks Buffalo is going RB unless someone unexpectedly falls in their lap at 30. He specifically says McBeane don't want Allen to be taking a lot of hits anymore.

And here I thought taking a RB at #30 was worst case scenario.

He's missed 11 games over the past 7 years. Easily worth the gamble of a Day 2 pick IMO if you can fit his contract under your cap.

I still think it can go in a lot of different directions (duh, we're picking 30th), but I'm going to stick to my guns with Joseph Ossai.