SoTier

Famous last words. 2011 and 2012 were both supposed to be "QB rich drafts", too, except that they really weren't when NFL reality bit. 2011 had 4 QBs taken in the first 12 picks, but only #1 pick Cam Newton wasn't a bust ... and he's a good NFL starting QB but not a great one. The only other successful NFL QBs from 2011 were 2nd rounder Andy Dalton and 6th rounder Tyrod Taylor. This success rate is pretty much par for most drafts in terms of successful QBs since 2000. 2012 also had 4 QBs taken in the first round, 3 in the first 8. Andrew Luck as the supposed "greatest prospect ever" at #1 has been somewhat of a disappointment in living up to his expectations, and he's been hurt the past season plus. If his shoulder prevents him from playing again, then he will definitely not be the best QB from 2012. Robert Griffin III had a good rookie season in an offense that was tailored to him, but he was injured and never regained his rookie season form, which was mostly, IMO and contrary to legend, because he didn't/couldn't develop or master the skills a successful NFL QB needs. Ryan Tannehill has been a fairly successful NFL QB but as rumors persist that Miami is looking to upgrade the position, that suggests he's been a disappointment not unlike Jay Cutler who was Denver's pick at #11 in 2006 -- too good to jettison but not quite good enough. Brandon Weeden was a bust. The real value in 2012 came in the rounds after the first. Seattle hit the jackpot with Russell Wilson, easily the most successful QB from that draft, and definitely the epitome of a franchise QB who "carries" his team. Kirk Cousins came out of the 4th round in that draft, and "super sub" Nick Foles became a "legend in his own time" with his 2017 playoff heroics. Any semblance of success that Washington has had since 2013 has come from the arm of Kirk Cousins BTW. The lesson from both these drafts is that contrary to myth, the world doesn't necessarily end if a team doesn't "mortgage the future" to trade up in a supposedly "QB rich draft". I disagree with this primarily because the risk in a trade up is magnified by the number and quality of the picks given up. Swapping first round picks and throwing in one or two additional picks is much less risky than swapping a higher first for 2 firsts and additional Day 2 picks (rounds 2 or 3), and both are infinitely more risky than already having the target pick (say #2 or #3).

Well, this is one train I'll miss. While a great arm doesn't guarantee QB success, lacking an NFL caliber arm pretty much guarantees QB failure as a starter. Well, I suppose "played well" depends your definition of "played well".

If Glenn isn't healthy, then the Bills won't be able to trade him. I fail to understand how so many posters here think that other teams are going to trade for a player who can't play. I pretty much wholeheartedly agree with this. The only part I disagree with is your assumption that Dawkins could take a step back if he doesn't have competition. I don't think it's a question of having competition so much as about the fact that lots of good rookies fail to get any better or even regress ... mostly because opposing coaches and players figure them out. If Glenn is healthy, he's a better LT than Dawkins, so he should stay on the left side while Dawkins moves over to the right, giving the Bills a pair of good/decent bookend OTs. A better RT than Justin Mills can improve the play at RG, too, whether that is Miller or another player. FTR, a solid OL improves QB play no matter who is under center. Glenn plays LT significantly better than Dawkins. Don't confuse a Dawkins playing the position well "for a rookie" with playing the position well period.

It was a dumb idea then, and it hasn't improved any.

Just say "NO!" to Derek Anderson!

Very well said!

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Pot meet kettle.

Big armed college QBs who busted in the NFL are a dime a dozen. If the only thing that determined QB successful in the NFL was passing ability, it wouldn't be so hard to find good ones.

I hate to rain on your parade, dude, but it's a bit early in the game to declare Watson a good NFL QB since he played only 7 games in the NFL, and the Bills are in the market for a good NFL QB. How either Watson or Jackson did in college means nothing in the NFL. It's entirely possible that Watson turns out to be one of the numerous first year QBs who shine in the first year as starters only to crash and burn as DCs figure them out ... or not. Jackson could very well turn out to be a much better NFL QB than Watson ... or they could both prove to be bests.

Didn't our very own Aaron Maybin wow Skeletor and Russ at the 2009 Combine? We all know how that turned out. Just say no to smurfs on defense in the first round ... and maybe the second as well.

I agree. Foles had a phenomenal season in 2013, but crashed and burned just like the rest of Chip Kelly's offense the next season. He was uninspiring in his stints elsewhere since then, and really looked mediocre after taking over for Wentz until the Super Bowl. In the right situation (ie, a loaded offense and brilliant coaching like Philly has), Foles is probably a pretty good QB but the Bills simply don't have the talent that the Eagles do, so I think he'd really struggle here. That's also why I'm leery about Keenum but at least Keenum just costs some $$$ not potential talent. I'd prefer the Bills pass on both and draft a QB, even if they have to settle for a second tier guy on Day 2.

Maybe he looked even shorter next to Allen, so the other teams lost interest in him and he'll slide to where the Bills have a realistic shot to trade up for him. NFL guys really don't like short QBs which is why they all passed on Russell Wilson to chase after Brock Osweiler. Mayfield seems to be a real gamer who will do whatever he needs to do to win ... and he seems to play clutch, too. Big guys who can chuck the ball a mile when they're wearing shorts and/or red jerseys are a dime a dozen. Potential NFL QBs, not nearly so plentiful. Mayfield is the only one of this crop of QBs I'd trade up myself.

IMO, it doesn't matter. If you can't get the QB you like/want, then you pass and try again the next year. If you take a first round QB, you are basically prevented from taking another first round QB in the next four years whether he's a hit or a miss, so make the right pick. Only in rare cases (like Manziel) is a team going to give up on a first round QB within a year or two.

#1: This is totally untrue. What the Bills had been doing since Bill Polian was fired back in the 1990s was putting making profits ahead of winning football games. After a poor start, it seems that the new ownership has committed to bringing winning football back to Buffalo. That means that the Bills aren't looking to "make do" with another cheap QB prospect as they had in the past, but the reality is that since they don't have the #1 pick (and aren't likely to be able to acquire it), they don't have their pick of whatever QB they want. The Bills may only like 1 of the top 4 or 5 QBs well enough to trade up for him, and if he's gone, what would you have them do then? Invest multiple first round picks in a QB that they view as a marginal first round prospect just to have a first round QB on the roster? Or draft a second tier QB prospect in the 2nd or 3rd round to be at least an upgrade over Peterman and maybe more if they get lucky? FTR, Jones and Peterman were Day 3 projects. Nobody is suggesting that. The discussion here has been about Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) QBs who might make good "backup plans" like Mike White. Second rounders Andy Dalton and Derek Carr and third rounder Russell Wilson were all good enough to start from Day 1 as rookies. #3: I don't follow college football but everything I've read about Allen reminds me of JP Losman. He seems like the kind of marginal first round QB who has "bust" stamped on his forehead, and I'd prefer that the Bills pass on him even if he were available at #21.

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Agreed. The chances of the Bills getting "their guy" at QB in 2018 seem to be pretty slim. Everything needs to fall perfectly, and that's a tall order, so they need to have contigency plans. If you're going to pick a "consolation" QB, then do it in the 2nd or 3rd, not waste a 1st on a QB likely to be a backup or a low level starter. Maybe lightning strikes and you get a Russell Wilson or Drew Brees or even a Tom Brady. If not, it's relatively easy to part with a 2nd round disappointment and move on.

If the Bills can't get the guy they want -- and that's very likely given where they sit in the draft -- it would be stupid to settle for a consolation prize QB that they really didn't like that much just to draft a first round QB. Why is the concept that drafting a first round QB just to draft one is a stupid move such a hard concept for you to grasp? Taking a Day 2 QB isn't ideal, but it's better than investing in a marginal first rounder or not taking a QB at all. And Nathan Peterman is not a Mike White clone. White is a Day 2 prospect, and rounds 2 and 3 have yielded some decent QBs in recent years. Peterman is barely a Day 3 prospect, starting with his lack of an NFL arm.

I have no problem with the Bills deciding to use their first round picks on other positions and take a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. That strategy worked great for Seattle in 2012, and pretty well for Cincinatti in 2011 and Oakland in 2014. With more and more colleges moving away from pro-style offenses, there seems to have been an uptick in the number QBs outside the first round who have some success. You can include Cousins and Prescott who both came out of the 4th round (Day 3) ... and perhaps include Foles and Keenum, too.

That's not what I said at all. I said drafting a first round QB was risky, but that drafting a QB who was the #1 consensus pick was a pretty safe bet. I also said that trading up to draft a first round QB, especially in a year like 2018 where there's no clear consensus best QB, is even riskier. I also said that the Bills have drafted QBs in the first rounds in the last quarter century for the wrong reason: to put butts in the seats -- and that's cost them big time, primarily in the lost opportunities to draft QBs who could have actually helped them win games: Aaron Rodgers (2005), Jay Cutler (2006), Joe Flacco (2008), Teddy Bridgewater (2014), and Derek Carr (2014) -- all useful QBs who were better than Losman or Manuel. Keep in mind that when a team drafts a first round QB, they aren't going to draft another first round QB for about 4 years unless said QB is a bust like a JaMarcus Russell or Johnny Manziel. I hope you are right. Like the OP, I'm not opposed to trading up a few spots to take Mayfield, but I don't think it's possible for the Bills to get into the Top 4 short of sacrificing too much for a QB who's more likely to bust than not, which would likely be Rosen. If Jackson was available at #21, I'd take him (not at #22!). I don't know if I'd spend a first rounder on Allen or Rudolph. In case you missed it, that team was so good it overcame numerous injuries to key players, including their starting QB, and won the SB with a backup QB. .

While this is true, the reality is that the draft is such a crap shoot, even at the top, that trading up is probably not going to be a winning proposition for most teams that do it even for a QB. QBs who are the consensus #1 pick are about as close to "can't miss" picks as possible; they hit at about 80% since 2000. Even QBs drafted in positions 2-4 fail almost 50% of the time while QBs from 5-32 hit at about 25%. Except for Wentz, teams trading up for QBs outside the #1 pick have found duds instead of studs over the last 15 years, including JP Losman (2004), Mark Sanchez (2009), and Robert Griffin III. This year there's not even a consensus #1 QB, so drafting a QB is even more dicey, and trading up is nothing but a crap shoot. This is the attitude that has resulted in the Bills' failure to find a good QB for a quarter of a century. Drafting a QB in the first round just to draft one is a flawed strategy because sometimes there just isn't a good one available (EJ Manuel in 2013). Trading up to do that is even stupider (JP Losman in 2004). The Bills need to approach drafting a QB with the primary goal of winning football games, not to placate fans to sell tickets, which is what they've done in the past. The Bills missed on a trade up in 2004, the Jests missed on a trade up in 2009, and Washington missed on a trade up in 2012. Well, if I win the top prize in Powerball, I'm set for life, too.

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2 firsts or "2 firsts and maybe a little more" to get a chance at a non-QB? I wouldn't, not even for a pass rusher. Even to get a QB, I'd have to be guaranteed that my QB was there, so it would have to be when the trade partner was on the clock ... unless it was the #1 pick of course.

Okay, then who would the Bills sign? It's easy to pretend that the Bills can upgrade the QB position with some cheap unnamed FA QB, but when you start putting names to "veteran FA QB", the picture looks very different. You don't like Moore or Henne, then what about Teddy Bridgewater? Mike Glennon? Josh McKown? AJ McCarron? Geno Smith? Trevor Siemian?

The argument about Tyrod not being able to mentor a young QB because he's not a conventional QB is nonsense. As others have said, teaching young QBs is the job of coaches, and to paraphrase Brett Favre, who was at best unhelpful to Aaron Rodgers, "It's not my job." Tyrod Taylor isn't Kurt Warner. He's also not Eli Manning. The reality is that if Nate Peterman had played better, benching Taylor for him would have never been an issue. If the rookie QB plays decently when given the opportunity, then it's a non-issue. It only becomes an issue if the rookie QB isn't good enough ... as JP Losman wasn't in 2005.