The Bills Blog

Did you watch the f****** game or are you just looking at stats? It was clearly his best game. This thread is baffling to me.

Media pressure may eventually force the Bills' hand to replace Allen, and that is a crying shame.

I was not able to watch the game live yesterday, but I just watched it and I have to say I am deeply troubled by the media and fan reaction. I thought Josh Allen clearly played his best game yesterday. There were a lot of bright spots and a lot of throws from the pocket. You also can't just throw out plays that were called back. They still show his development. It's highly disturbing that everyone is saying he was awful and needs to be be replaced.

This feels like emotional abuse. The aftermath of this Bills loss feels like one of those moments when you've been emotionally abused and you have that spasm of clarity: "Wow, I really don't deserve this. This shouldn't be happening." What we saw from Peterman doesn't compute. It should never happen.

Just think. If daddy hadn't been turned on that one time...

What does Jesus Christ have to do with it? Why would you randomly say that at the end of your response? Why not any other religious figure?

Poor Peterman. He's not going to be in the league a third year and will miss out on his NFL pension. At least EJ got a pension.

The most depressing thing is that as soon as we get a good quarterback, the defense will suck again. It is rare for both to converge -- for some reason. Exception: 2018 Rams

Week 6: @ Houston Texans I posited last week that there are five factors of winning in the NFL: schemes, luck, passion, talent, and environment (listed in order of importance). I thought the Bills would beat the Titans because of a favorable blend of schemes, passion, luck, and environment. Coincidentally or not, it did happen—despite the talent gap—and at least for one week, my theory appears to have legs. This week, it's another very hard game to call. I'm not sure who will have the edge in SCHEMES (the biggest factor of winning), but as long as Deshaun Watson does play, both TALENT and ENVIRONMENT go in Houston's favor. That means the Bills may only be able to rely on PASSION and hope for LUCK this week, and that's not a likely recipe for success. However, if the Bills can out-scheme Houston, they may be able to overcome the discrepancy and make it a game... Three predictions: 1. The Bills will get a big jolt of LUCK when a big hit from a blitzing Tremaine Edmunds will knock Deshaun Watson out of the game. 2. Josh Allen will throw a touchdown pass to Kelvin Benjamin. This might not be a shocker to the general public, but it will be to Bills fans. This will go along with a better-than-expected day from Allen as he will actually put up respectable passing numbers despite the fearsome Texans pass rush. Here, I'm calling a SCHEMES advantage for the Bills. 3. Tre'Davious White will limit DeAndre Hopkins to less than 70 yards receiving. TALENT on TALENT, and White will win. Result: Bills 17, Texans 10

How in hell do you cheat on that ass?

But the Jets are in an even better position... are we just assuming that they'll squander it?

The Bills won yesterday not because of talent but because of the other four factors of winning, three of which are more important than talent: schemes, luck, passion, and environment.

F is against his religion. Damn is minor enough.

Lol, the flea-flicker WAS right after a turnover.

He was AWESOME live. He wouldn't stop pumping the crowd up all game. Most active player in that way.

I think I've learned Daboll. Have you learned Daboll?

In the week leading up to a game, there is an incalculably large amount of wasted time and energy spent on analysis of matchups and schemes. In reality, all of this conjecture typically flies out the window within minutes of the start of the game. I would say that the majority of games are effectively decided in the first few possessions, and how those first few possessions go is typically dependent not only on matchups and schemes but also on factors like environment, passion, and luck. The team who starts fast, whether it be on offense or defense, typically wins – and this often takes root prior to "key player X" even touching the ball. Therefore, I propose that there are actually five key components that determine who wins NFL games, and I would rank them in this order: 1) Schemes 2) Luck 3) Passion 4) Talent 5) Environment ("home-field advantage")  Analysis typically only focuses on talent and schemes – and usually on talent! In my view, talent is one of the least-important of the five factors, yet we spend most of our time comparing rosters and matchups. I should note that this theory only applies to the NFL. In college, where there is a huge discrepancy in talent between one team and the next, it becomes a bigger issue. In the NFL, however, the talent gap is so minimal between teams that other factors (schemes, luck, passion) become more important. Let's break down the five factors. Schemes: The New England Patriots are the New England Patriots not because Tom Brady is physically or mentally superior to most other quarterbacks (news flash: he's not), but because they have developed an offensive scheme that teams cannot stop. It's the coaches, not the players, who make it successful. We have seen it so many times over the years – player X goes down to a season-ending injury and the Patriots machine just keeps going with Joe Schmo from the grocery store catching balls. It's never been about talent in New England. It's about schemes, luck (you can argue whether or not that is NFL-mandated luck, but that's a discussion for another time), and culture (passion).  Luck: Statistics have shown that turnovers—specifically fumbles—are random. The ball needs to bounce your way. You need to get the key penalty calls in the critical moments. Momentum is closely related to luck – when you get a takeaway, that increases your momentum because it stokes your passion and, when you're at home, energizes the crowd. Watch, and you will see that the offense scoring a touchdown does not cause a momentum spike like a key turnover does. I believe that luck is the key driver of momentum. If you bring a great team to the field but the other team gets all the breaks, you're probably going to lose despite your passion and talent. Passion: Culture. How often do we hear that word? Bills head coach Sean McDermott made headlines this week when he said, "Culture trumps strategy." Is he right? No, I don't think so, but I think it trumps talent and environment. If you come to a home game with all the talent in the world but you play flat, guess what? You're going to lose unless you get lucky and have a vastly superior gameplan. On the other hand, if you scheme up the other team as well as they scheme you and the ball breaks both ways during the game, the team who can dig deep and find that next gear because of its culture is probably going to win. Talent: As I wrote above, the talent gap in the NFL is so minimal. This is not basketball, where talent is clearly the greatest determinant of winning. In the NFL, we frequently see less-talented teams win because the ball bounced their way and/or their coaches out-schemed the opponent. Where we see talent make a big difference is in evenly matched games where one team's quarterback is simply better than the other. This can definitely be a factor in determining the outcome of games, but I still feel that it is the fourth-most important. I should note that there is one thing that can push talent higher up this list: rookie quarterbacks. Josh Allen is a perfect example. He is so bad right now that he can single-handedly be the reason the Bills lose games. That should change soon, but it might cause a temporary uptick for talent in the hierarchy of the factors of winning. Environment: This one has been bothering me for a while. We often hear the media and fans talk about it being hard to win in certain venues, but the reality is that "home-field advantage" only comes into play depending on what occurs with the other four factors. For example, if the other team comes out with a great opening-drive script, gets a lucky penalty call, and brings passion to the field while the home team starts on its heels, they'll score and the home crowd will be out of it faster than you can snap your fingers. Of all the five factors, it's the easiest to eliminate. It rarely comes into play. I'd say the most it can do is serve to motivate the home team in key situations; I am not convinced that it has a negative effect on the opposing team – in fact, it might even spark them to greater success because of the "us against the world" phenomenon. I concede that it can be hard to analyze things like luck and passion prior to the game, but instead of hearing things like, "If they can get LeSean McCoy the ball 25 times, I think they'll be victorious," we should be hearing things like this: "If they come out with a greater sense of urgency, if Brian Daboll's script is better than Tennessee's, and if the ball bounces their way early, I like their chances to get an early lead and then ride the running game and the energy of the home crowd to a victory." So that's my football theory for the week. Now on to the game pick: Bills over Titans. Sean McDermott has proven in his short time in Buffalo that he can turn things around from one week to the next. Lost in the 22-0 scoreline last week was that the Bills' defense actually played extremely well and there were many missed opportunities for points. I think we will see the Bills come out with a good gameplan (SCHEMES) on both sides of the ball this week. I think we'll start fast on defense (PASSION), which will allow Brian Daboll to work with his full playbook and put Josh Allen in good positions for early success. I think the Bills will be the more desperate team (PASSION), because Tennessee is coming off two big wins and the Bills are fighting to keep their season alive. If the Bills can get the early breaks (LUCK), the home crowd—of which I will be a part—will stay loud and proud throughout, bringing the most out of the team (ENVIRONMENT). There is no question that Tennessee is the more talented team, but I think we'll see the Bills win this week because of the other four factors. Of course, if the Bills don't get that fast start that I expect, this could go in a completely opposite direction. Final score prediction: Bills 24, Titans 13

In the week leading up to a game, there is an incalculably large amount of wasted time and energy spent on analysis of matchups and schemes. In reality, all of this conjecture typically flies out the window within minutes of the start of the game. I would say that the majority of games are effectively decided in the first few possessions, and how those first few possessions go is typically dependent not only on matchups and schemes but also on factors like environment, passion, and luck. The team who starts fast, whether it be on offense or defense, typically wins – and this often takes root prior to "key player X" even touching the ball. Therefore, I propose that there are actually five key components that determine who wins NFL games, and I would rank them in this order: 1) Schemes 2) Luck 3) Passion 4) Talent 5) Environment ("home-field advantage") Analysis typically only focuses on talent and schemes – and usually on talent! In my view, talent is one of the least-important of the five factors, yet we spend most of our time comparing rosters and matchups. I should note that this theory only applies to the NFL. In college, where there is a huge discrepancy in talent between one team and the next, it becomes a bigger issue. In the NFL, however, the talent gap is so minimal between teams that other factors (schemes, luck, passion) become more important. Let's break down the five factors. Schemes: The New England Patriots are the New England Patriots not because Tom Brady is physically or mentally superior to most other quarterbacks (news flash: he's not), but because they have developed an offensive scheme that teams cannot stop. It's the coaches, not the players, who make it successful. We have seen it so many times over the years – player X goes down to a season-ending injury and the Patriots machine just keeps going with Joe Schmo from the grocery store catching balls. It's never been about talent in New England. It's about schemes, luck (you can argue whether or not that is NFL-mandated luck, but that's a discussion for another time), and culture (passion). Luck: Statistics have shown that turnovers—specifically fumbles—are random. The ball needs to bounce your way. You need to get the key penalty calls in the critical moments. Momentum is closely related to luck – when you get a takeaway, that increases your momentum because it stokes your passion and, when you're at home, energizes the crowd. Watch, and you will see that the offense scoring a touchdown does not cause a momentum spike like a key turnover does. I believe that luck is the key driver of momentum. If you bring a great team to the field but the other team gets all the breaks, you're probably going to lose despite your passion and talent. Passion: Culture. How often do we hear that word? Bills head coach Sean McDermott made headlines this week when he said, "Culture trumps strategy." Is he right? No, I don't think so, but I think it trumps talent and environment. If you come to a home game with all the talent in the world but you play flat, guess what? You're going to lose unless you get lucky and have a vastly superior gameplan. On the other hand, if you scheme up the other team as well as they scheme you and the ball breaks both ways during the game, the team who can dig deep and find that next gear because of its culture is probably going to win. Talent: As I wrote above, the talent gap in the NFL is so minimal. This is not basketball, where talent is clearly the greatest determinant of winning. In the NFL, we frequently see less-talented teams win because the ball bounced their way and/or their coaches out-schemed the opponent. Where we see talent make a big difference is in evenly matched games where one team's quarterback is simply better than the other. This can definitely be a factor in determining the outcome of games, but I still feel that it is the fourth-most important. I should note that there is one thing that can push talent higher up this list: rookie quarterbacks. Josh Allen is a perfect example. He is so bad right now that he can single-handedly be the reason the Bills lose games. That should change soon, but it might cause a temporary uptick for talent in the hierarchy of the factors of winning. Environment: This one has been bothering me for a while. We often hear the media and fans talk about it being hard to win in certain venues, but the reality is that "home-field advantage" only comes into play depending on what occurs with the other four factors. For example, if the other team comes out with a great opening-drive script, gets a lucky penalty call, and brings passion to the field while the home team starts on its heels, they'll score and the home crowd will be out of it faster than you can snap your fingers. Of all the five factors, it's the easiest to eliminate. It rarely comes into play. I'd say the most it can do is serve to motivate the home team in key situations; I am not convinced that it has a negative effect on the opposing team – in fact, it might even spark them to greater success because of the "us against the world" phenomenon. I concede that it can be hard to analyze things like luck and passion prior to the game, but instead of hearing things like, "If they can get LeSean McCoy the ball 25 times, I think they'll be victorious," we should be hearing things like this: "If they come out with a greater sense of urgency, if Brian Daboll's script is better than Tennessee's, and if the ball bounces their way early, I like their chances to get an early lead and then ride the running game and the energy of the home crowd to a victory." So that's my football theory for the week. Now on to the game pick: Bills over Titans. Sean McDermott has proven in his short time in Buffalo that he can turn things around from one week to the next. Lost in the 22-0 scoreline last week was that the Bills' defense actually played extremely well and there were many missed opportunities for points. I think we will see the Bills come out with a good gameplan (SCHEMES) on both sides of the ball this week. I think we'll start fast on defense (PASSION), which will allow Brian Daboll to work with his full playbook and put Josh Allen in good positions for early success. I think the Bills will be the more desperate team (PASSION), because Tennessee is coming off two big wins and the Bills are fighting to keep their season alive. If the Bills can get the early breaks (LUCK), the home crowd—of which I will be a part—will stay loud and proud throughout, bringing the most out of the team (ENVIRONMENT). There is no question that Tennessee is the more talented team, but I think we'll see the Bills win this week because of the other four factors. Of course, if the Bills don't get that fast start that I expect, this could go in a completely opposite direction. Final score prediction: Bills 24, Titans 13

Why? Isn't that an encouraging thought?

I concede that it's a big If, but if Josh Allen is good, the following statement is likely 100% true: In the next 15 years, the Bills will never be as bad as they are now. Only looking up.

This article is almost unreadable with the terrible grammatical errors. How does a guy like this get hired?

It seems like it's misspelled every time someone on here tries to spell it.

Capaccio.

I'm going to continue to be who I am. I use my eye for detail and quality to make money. Not saying it's any more money than you all make, but it is what it is. I tend to notice things that other people would never even think about. It's a blessing and a curse.

Serious question - do you think this is professional on the part of WGR? Why don't you care about quality?