Shaw66

That's interesting. Thanks. Strictly based on my own eye test, I would guess that Edmunds put up that stat (which is pretty amazing) because he rarely laid out to hit someone, and he rarely came in hard and lead with his shoulder. His tackling style is to hug the ball carrier and wrestle him down. He's a big guy, so when he can get close enough to hug the guy, he's going down. I would guess that what doesn't show up in that stat are the times that he didn't attempt the tackle because he was coming on the scene passively. And he rarely made tackles driving the ball carrier back toward the line of scrimmage; he'd hug the guy and get dragged downfield a bit. I think running backs knew they weren't going to get punished running up the middle, and that's not what you want running backs thinking. They thought, "The big guy may tackle me, but he isn't going to hurt me." His gap discipline was pretty bad early in his career, but he cleaned that up as the seasons went by. Now, I was a pretty big Edmunds defender while he was here, because I thought he was an important part of the pass defense, but i never defended his run-stopping or blitzing. As others have said, McBeane hoped he would grow into a transcendent linebacker, but he never did. I think their experience with Edmunds caused them to refine their thinking a bit. I think they now think that they need a guy with quickness and physical toughness in the middle, a guy who is solid but not necessarily a star in the pass defense. I think they kept hoping Klein would emerge as a solid pass defender, but he just couldn't do it. They've seen Kirksey on film, and I'm guessing he can give them what they need. I'm sure they're still hoping one of Dodson, Bernard, or Williams will emerge.

Wow. That's amazing. Parcells and Belichick always had this kind of love-hate relationship, because they were fundamentally different guys. I wonder if Belichick helps out his former players. He doesn't seem like that kind of guy.

It's the difference between offense and defense. Except for running backs, offensive skill position players often protect themselves. That's a change from the old days, when everyone was expected to be aggressive hitters. On defense, there's not a lot of room for guys who don't punish ball carriers. If Edmunds was protecting himself for five years to be sure he got a contract, well, the Bills should have dumped him earlier. Especially for a guy who plays in the middle, he is one of the least aggressive hitters I've seen in recent years.

Edmunds had amazing range. He covered a lot of space. Given how much he was in the vicinity, it was surprising how relatively few plays he made.

I don't know the answers to your questions, but I'm confident I'm correct about this. I'm as old or older than you. I grew up a Jim Brown fan, and so I knew a lot about Sam Huff and Ray Nitschke. Then Butkus. Those were the days when the middle linebacker was THE MAN. Then the man was Lawrence Taylor, and suddenly everything changed. As the game evolved, the edge rushers took over. Ray Lewis was a throwback. Brian Uhrlacher was a star middle linebacker, but what him a star was his ability to take deep drops in the Cover 2. His special skill was pass defense. Yes, he was big and strong, but he ushered in the change to mobile pass coverage middle linebackers. I, like a lot of people still carry the image of Sam Huff and Ray Lewis with me, but I've come to believe that those guys are history. It's a passing league, and the back seven are critical to a good pass defense. As offenses have spread, all seven back defenders have had to be mobile enough to cover wideouts, faster tight ends, and running backs. Huff and Nitschke would struggle today. Keuchle may have been last of the great two-way (run-pass) middle linebackers. I think McBeane hoped that Edmunds would play the run tough enough to be a Keuchle type dominator, but he never developed into that. So, I've begun thinking that the middle linebacker just isn't as important as the other positions. I think Beane confirmed it the other day, when he said that if they're relatively weak in the middle, the players around them will have to pick them up. It's impossible to say that about any other position on defense. Those positions cannot be the weak link. But middle linebacker can. With Edmunds gone, the zone the middle linebacker covers necessarily must shrink. So that means Milano, Johnson, the corners and the safeties will each have to increase their coverage zones a bit, but that's six guys dividing up the space that Edmunds used to cover. That's a weakness, to be sure, but their zones will now be the same size as the zones all other pass defenders have (because those defenders don't have Edmunds, either). But in exchange, the Bills are looking for a guy to play the middle who can defend the pass effectively and attack ball carriers and the quarterback better than Edmunds (which frankly shouldn't be very hard). That's what I've been thinking. And I think it's confirmed by Beane having made major moves to strengthen or keep every defensive position EXCEPT middle linebacker. They're obviously just looking for a quick, smart, aggressive tackling athlete. Bernard, Williams, Dodson. They aren't looking for Keuchle any more. I think the game has changed, and old timers like me are just catching up to that fact. Kirksey will be the guy. He has experience calling the defense, which is part of the problem with Dodson, Bernard and Williams. He has been an effective pass defender. And he's better against the run than Edmunds, and a better blitzer, too. He is not going to be a star, but as I've been saying, the Bills seems to have decided that middle linebacker is the position where a star is least necessary.

I like this post. Nice overall summary. I want to add a few things. First, I never said linebacker is insignificant. I said that when we look at the totality of Beane and McDermott's roster building, I think it's clear that linebacker is, in their minds, the least important defensive position, the position where it's least important to have top talent. As others have said, it's the defensive equivalent of the running back on offense. I think that's obvious from Beane's presser. He said the other guys on defense will have to pick up the slack. It makes sense schematically: it's the position where the guy can get help from his teammates from any direction. You can't help and edge rusher - if he can't get to the quarterback, it's an advantage to the offense. You can only help the corner back by doubling his man or playing zone, both things being advantages to the offense. The middle linebacker's job gets easier if he has talent all around him, so you can get away with a lesser talent there without hurting your defense as much as having a weak player on the edge. Beane said he want to re-sign Edmunds, but I wouldn't be quick to assume that meant that he any expectation that he would. None of us knows, but I don't think the Bears were the only team who would pay Edmunds more than Beane would. The Bears just happened to offer the most. My guess is that Beane and McDermott decided that they only wanted Edmunds at a relatively lowball price. There was nothing in the short time before Edmunds signed that suggested that Beane offered enough to have even a short negotiation with Edmunds. And I don't think they signed Oliver because they had money from not signing Edmunds. I just don't. Oliver was the 8th best paid DT in the league when he signed, which meant they paid him right about what he's worth. And not signing him would have a left a bigger hole than not signing Edmunds, for the reason stated above. If you have a weak middle linebacker, you can cover for him. If you have a weak 3-tech, there's nothing you can do to help him. Someday we'll know if Beane wanted Campbell. He didn't fall far enough for Beane to be able to trade up for him. I don't think Williams is such a head scratcher, but I do agree about Beane's annual WTF. Great line! When I started this discussion a week or two ago, I said that Beane ALWAYS attempts to fill holes. ALWAYS. I think the only way to explain the fact that for two seasons he got no serious help in the draft and no serious help in free agency is that Beane and McDermott think that lesser talent is enough to fill the perceived hole. And I think running back is the same. Their answer at running back was two third round picks (Motor and Moss), one second round pick who never will be as good as his brother, and some NFL journeymen. It's just not a position the McBeane think they have to spend money on, and middle linebacker is the same.

They saved a lot of salary cap by cutting him. $5.2 million.

Right. Dodson has the physical tools, so he must have struggled with managing the mental challenges of the position. I think that's exactly why Kirksey was brought in Klein has the mental skills, but I assume Kirksey is better physically. That's why Kirksey has been a more consistent starter.

Thanks.

I think that's exactly right. Edmunds wasn't a heat-seeking missile when he joined the Bills, and I think McBeane hoped he would learn to become one. Then they would have had a truly magnificent player in the middle of the defense. I think they now look at the position as you say in the bold sentence.

The only evidence you have that middle linebacker is important to them is that they used draft capital on one five years ago. The evidence I have is that they used no money and no draft capital to replace him. And I have Beane's presser, in which he admits that he spent all the money and draft capital elsewhere, and in which he also admits that they've been intending to have all the players around the middle linebacker pick up whatever talent differential may be in the middle. And I have the fact that they upgraded EVERY position on defense in the past two years, which is exactly the time frame within which they knew they weren't keeping Edmunds. They've signed two bigtime pass rushers, a starting defensive tackle and two backup tackles, re-signed Oliver, used a first-round pick on a corner, re-signed Poyer, and signed a veteran backup safety. In the face of all that, do you really think that middle linebacker is a more important position than any of the other positions? The only evidence you have is they drafted Edmunds. I think it's clear that their view of what they need in the middle has changed.

How do we know he'll get the vet minimum? For example, if he's on the PS and some other team wants to sign him, the Bills can keep him only if they match the offer, right? The offer doesn't have to be vet minimum. For this guy, who's had a significant contract history (which presumably means he's pretty talented), I would expect that he's already negotiated his deal with the Bills for when he's activated, and that there's going to be something more than the vet minimum in it for him. I mean, the guy has a resume that suggests that he has some actual value in the market place. He's been playing on contracts worth $3-4 million a year. He has talent, and except for his injury history, he doesn't look like his career is over. Maybe he's willing to give the Bills a discount because he wants to go to a winner, but I'd expect that when he's activated he'll be someplace over the vet minimum. The entire arrangement already has been negotiated with him. PS is sort of a tryout for him, with both sides expecting that he's going to be elevated soon. There's been a handshake on what the deal will be when he's elevated.

Their thinking about the position has evolved.

He had injury concerns, and he had a relatively big contract that the Texans could unload. I don't really know the guy, but he seems to be better, more experienced talent than I thought the Bills would find available Tuesday at 4 pm. I suspect that really savvy NFL people, like Beane, suspected he'd be available. He had a hammy, saw no preseason action, and Houston didn't seem to be in a hurry to get him back. With his contract, he seemed like a likely cut to people in the know.

I think that's correct. I think, to oversimplify, that Edmunds was very good dropping into coverage and not very good attacking (run stopping and blitzing). Milano, who has thrived in this defense, is very good attacking and solid dropping. I think McDermott has decided that the attacking aspect of middle linebacker player (which is what he had in Carolina), is what is critical. That's what they hoped for in Bernard and what they admittedly saw in Williams. And that, apparently, is what Kirksey can do, too. Get a good, attacking defensive line that occupies the oline, and have some good attacking players playing behind the line. That's what Milano is, that's what Taron Johnson is, and that's what they want in the middle. Enter Dodson, Bernard, Williams, and now Kirksey.

It's about how important the position is. I always use the punter as the extreme example. Teams, including the Bills, have sometimes waited until final cuts to pick up the best punter they can find. Hope is exactly the plan, and the reason it's not an unreasonable plan is because it just doesn't matter that much to a team's success whether they have the best or the worst punter in the league. The number of games lost because you have the worst punter is negligible. Now, you're middle linebacker is more important than your punter, admittedly, but what McBeane are telling us is not all that much more. Running backs aren't that important, but they signed Harris and Murray. Middle linebacker must be less important, because they didn't sign or draft anyone to help at the position. Like a punter, all they did was wait for the final cuts and take the best guy they could find who was out of a job. I don't see how you can reach any other conclusion. McDermott told Beane "we'll make do with what we have. If you can find me an upgrade, great, but not at the expense of losing the other talent we have." That's clearly what they have done. In February, you may be able to say "I told you so," but I think Bado is right: Edmunds isn't the reason the Bills haven't won a Super Bowl, and the middle linebacker, whoever he is, isn't going to be the reason this season, either.

Exactly. Beane has told us that, compared to the other positions, it just isn't that important to have a star in the middle. At least, that's what they think. We may find out this season just how undermanned they can afford to be.

Excellent points, particularly the bolded. He didn't get takeaways, he didn't get pass breakups, even though he was generally pretty good at dropping into coverage. And he didn't make a lot of plays moving forward. He was an ineffective blitzer and a mediocre run stopper. His talent was that he could occupy a lot of space in the middle of the zone, and that gave the DBs an edge. That will be missed, but McDermott's been adjusting defensive assignments for six months to cover that problem.

I think McBeane's philosophy about the position has evolved since drafting Edmunds. They were running the team with the memory of Keuchle fresh in their minds. But it's very simple. If they thought in 2022 and 2023 that middle linebacker was the linchpin in the defense, they would have done something to keep Edmunds or get a high-end replacement. So far as we can tell, they didn't try at all. I think what they learned from Edmunds, is that they can have a very good defense without an All-Pro middle linebacker. Look at the cap room they spent on Miller, Oliver, and Floyd. There simply can be no question that they believe the game can be played best with talent on the defensive line and less talent at middle linebacker. Look at the money they spent to re-sign White and keep Poyer, and the draft capital they spent on Elam. Beane consciously spent more or less nothing on a middle linebacker. He told us that in his presser. I don't think there's any question that they're thinking about the defense has evolved since they traded up for Edmunds.

I agree. I think the reality in today's NFL is that most teams understand that you can always find a guy to play running back, and you can always find a guy to play middle linebacker, and in both cases your team doesn't suffer if all you have is just a guy in those two positions. You'd always like to have more than that, but the productivity of your offense or defense just doesn't suffer very much if you have just a guy.

Yes, and that's another way of saying what I just said. McBeane clearly agree with you. They were willing to trade Edmunds and his contract for Kirksey and his. What's amazing, is that they even were willing to let Edmunds and his contract go with no assurance at all that they'd get Kirksey or his equivalent. The were willing to live with Dodson and Klein and Bernard and hope that one would emerge or some decent talent would show up as a free agent between February and the final cuts. Lo and behold, there was Kirksey. I think the drop off in talent will be felt less than you might think. Beane said they have counting on all the other players to step up. What that means is that everyone's assignment on the defense has been adjusted a bit. DB's responsibilities in the zone are slightly different, for example. But, because Kirksey almost certainly will be a better blitzer and run stopped than Edmunds, the assignments for the defensive line also will adjust, for the better. (Put another way, Frazier always had to adjust assignments because he knew that there were some things Edmunds didn't do well. ) The defense always is adjusted, and the offense, too, depending on the strengths and weaknesses of each player.

I want to revive a discussion I started a few days ago. I don't know what thread it was in, but with the Kirksey signing, the discussion is relevant here. I said a few days ago that middle linebacker is, in the view of McDermott and Beane, the least most important position on the defense. I think Beane more or less confirmed that in his press conference. He said two things, both of which seemed clear before the presser, but now he's left no doubt. One thing he said was, in so many ways, was that they don't have very good talent at middle linebacker. He struggled and hemmed and hawed when he talked about the position, but that's what he said. He essentially said they're hoping someone will step up. In the presser he said that they're expecting everyone playing around the middle linebacker, whoever he is, to pick up a bit of the slack. In other words, they have surrounded the weakest player in the starting lineup with talent, and they hope they can hide the weakness in the middle. It's apparent that they were comfortable being in that position, because from the time they decided they weren't bringing Edmunds back, they did pretty much nothing to fill the position. They were content to wait to pick up someone after the other teams made their final cuts. No free agent signings, no high draft pick dedicated to the position. They may have lucked out, because they possibly found a quality starter, but that was and is not a sure thing. They were willing to take that risk. Finally, he was very clear they ran out of money. He said when you have your quarterback and then you sign some guys like Tre and Von, you don't have enough money for all the positions. The clear implication was that they decided that middle linebacker, for the reasons above, was the position that they decided they could go cheap on. He implied that they made a conscious decision not to allocate money or draft capital to the position. (Also, in talking about Basham, he was clear that getting some cap room back was a consideration. In other words, if you're on the bubble, a relatively big contract doesn't help.) And, by the way, in discussing why Elam hasn't progressed, he mentioned that when you're a rookie on a really good team, it's tough to progress to the starting job, because there's solid competition. Then, as an example, he mention Dorian Williams and suggested that, despite how well he played in camp, he's not taking Milano's job. Makes me think, again, that he's the guy whom we will see in the middle sooner or later.

And if he's healthy and he isn't the starter, that means someone is playing pretty well.

And Rapoport reported that Kirksey prioritized winning. He liked going someplace where he has a shot to be on a really good team. Browns, Packers, and Texans didn't really give him that. So, I'm sure they've talked this all the way through, and both Beane and Kirksey know they're getting what each wants. The guy is going to be on the roster, for sure.

As I've said before, Beane always fills holes. But this is Houdini-like. I guess he decided he'd just sign the best inside linebacker who was available after the cuts, and he knew the rosters well enough to know that there would be someone. Still, it seems like this is later than the last minute. It's like the last second. I have no idea about who Kirksey is, but he started everyplace he's been, so that says something. The Bills just needed someone to stabilize the position. KIein was the only guy they had who really knew and could execute the position, but his physical skills are too limited. This is a guy who clearly has mastered defenses at other places, and he has a better physical skill set than Klein. So, the Bills benefit because, when healthy and familiar with the defense, the guy's probably going to play until Dodson or Bernard or Williams passes him. He's also going to be a better leader in the LB room, a guy who's veteran status should help the younger guys progress. Injury is the concern. Bills need him healthy, maybe for as long as the entire season.