Shaw66

This is excellent. I have evolved into thinking about what the Bills are doing by recognizing that McDermott and Beane are building the team in the image they want. That's what I was saying to people this summer about Bernard. Lots of people were out-of-their-minds about the Bills having filled the hole at middle linebacker, and it finally occurred to me that they hadn't acquired anyone because they didn't think they needed anyone. Low and behold, 43 seems to be doing just fine. I think we have to assume that the offense is playing in the image of what McDermott wants. McDermott wants to be able to play ball control football, which means running and short passes, and that's what we're seeing. I also think they believe that explosive football is not sustainable. They don't believe, and I agree that the Dolphins will be scoring 70 in December. Not since the greatest show on turf as any team sustained an explosive offense. Look at the 49ers, with three exceptional skill players, and yet their offense is a ball-control offense. It's hard to argue with the formula: Play stifling defense most of the time, and when the offense gets the ball, score at the end of a six-minute drive. Occasionally, two minutes.

Thanks. That's really good stuff. More than I've seen. I think it's interesting about Allen's propensity to roll right down there. Yes defenses know that, but they're having trouble stopping it nonetheless. As I mentioned, the Bills have had a lot of success with the receivers crashing from the back to front of the end zone. Both receiver and QB can see the gaps quite well, so they know where they're going. I also think that they've told Allen to roll left more often. The Jets interceptions came on plays when he escaped left rather than right. I think they're trying to expand his game that way for exactly the reason you give. If he can be as effective going left as going right, the offense is that much more effective.

Exactly. In a sense, what we're saying is Allen hasn't reached his potential. His potential, which is almost limitless, gives his team an edge only if the rest of the team is contributing the way it should. It's up to Allen to get the whole offense functioning correctly by getting the ball to the playmakers. There are several teams who have a QB who can run the offense well, like Brock Purdy, but there are very few who run the offense and also have the physical skills Allen brings.

This is interesting. Thanks. There are two different things about his decision making. Different but related. One is INTs, and the other is incompletions. A five-yard completion is a much better outcome for the play than an incomplete 20-yard attempt. It's better almost regardless of the situation. As for the Jets game, I think that the interceptions, which were not good decisions, were an indication of his throwing generally as the game went on. That is, I'm pretty sure his incompletions also went up. That affects the team's ability to get first downs. In the Raiders game, I think Josh maintained his discipline throughout the game. He seemed almost maniacal about throwing it short. As for the riskiness of the touchdowns, I would explain the two TDs differently. I would guess that we've seen the TD to Davis ten times before. What the Bills do is have runners deep in the end zone and if Josh is in scramble mode, then the receivers break to gaps in the defense. That throw to Davis was a rocket, and he was coming back for the ball. Pretty much no receiver makes that catch if he hasn't practiced it with Allen. So, yes, it looked like a throw into a crowd, but I think Davis and Allen knew exactly what they were doing. In other words, it was less risky than it looked. As for Shakir, well, that's just Josh being Josh. I've been in this discussion about Allen in a few threads the past week. I think the objective is to get him to get the ball playmakers, on script, and avoid INTs and incompletions. Still, there are going to be half-dozen times during the game where Josh is forced to be the playmaker, that his, he's forced to do something that only Josh can do. The same as Mahomes - different skill set, but the real edge both teams have over almost the others is they have a guy who, when needed, can be a premier playmaker himself. Lamar Jackson, too. The throw to Shakir was one of those. You do not want to tell Allen not to make that throw because, well, yes, there's some risk, but the risk is less than you think, because it's Allen. It's like his high school basketball coach telling his team he doesn't want anyone passing behind his back, because it's risky and none of you can do it that well. Except Josh, he can pass behind his back, because, yes, it's risky, but it's less risky than you think, because it's Allen. (And, yes, I just made up the high school thing as an example.) I keep saying it: If Josh can continue to discipline his play in that way, and if Dorsey is giving them the right plays to run, the offense could be really, really good.

Yes, this point that you and Gunner are talking about is the key. I think Josh has to be disciplined, meaning he NEVER takes the risky throw, the hero-ball throw, unless the situation absolutely demands it. That is, unless it's fourth down and less than 10 seconds left in the game, and the throw is the only to get a TD or get into field goal position. The rest of the time, take the easy completion. Over and over, take the easy completion. And I agree about the Jets game. Josh's bad decisions were bad decisions simply because taking the chance wasn't necessary. And it isn't just the INTs. It's every time Josh goes down field to a covered receiver (except Diggs one on one). Almost every incompletion is a bad play. And occasionally, that simple completion that he takes instead of a downfield incompletion, turns into a big play because a skill player makes a play - breaks a tackle or makes a tackler miss, or simply takes advantage of the defender's mistake. Warner demonstrates it nicely. Dorsey's play designs have to give Allen that easy option every play, but those aren't really difficult play designs. That's what everyone is doing in the NFL all the time. But what about taking advantage of Allen's arm and his legs? Oh, that will still happen. He ripped some throws against Raiders. And you can see that even the THREAT of him running reshapes the defense a bit. Plus, there always will be plays where the receivers are covered, the protection breaks down, and Josh has to take off. On those plays, Josh will be Josh, but even on those, when he's outside the pocket looking downfield, he needs to take the easy throw. Never throw it into a crowd. I think there's a very simple barometer to measure how Josh is doing: Completion percentage. Josh should be completing 70 to 80%, or more. If he's doing that, he's taking easy throws, making first downs, and everything else will take care of itself.

Absolutely.

What Purdy knows how to do is run the game. His problem is that there are six to ten plays a game where his body can't deliver what the play demands. Allen doesn't have that problem. Allen needs to run games like Purdy does, and when he does, the Bills will be awesome. He did it against the Raiders, and the Bills dominated.

So, I watched the Giants and 49ers last night, and I did this. I imagined Josh Allen at QB, running that offense the way Purdy runs it, game-manager style. When Purdy consistently overthrew receivers deep, I imagined the way Allen would throw the same pass. I imagined Allen escaping the pocket when Purdy couldn't. There were a half dozen throws last night that Purdy failed to complete that are gimmes for Allen. The 49ers with Allen behind center would be unbeatable. And the 49ers offense moved the ball the way the Bills did on Sunday - methodically. Nothing fancy; just get the ball to the skill players on every down. Avoid downs when no skill guy has the ball in his hands. Samuel, McCaffrey, Kittle, other guys, over and over. Just give them the ball. Then, when the defense slips up, hit them with a big play. And, yes, their skill players are different, to be sure, and maybe better (it's amazing how all three of their big stars always get the extra yards), but Diggs, Davis, Knox, Kincaid, Cook and the role players are very good. The Bills even use their fullback/H-back/tight end the same way. Allen needs to get the ball in the skill players' hands every play. He needs to take the sure completion instead of the possible big play. Just take it every time. The biggest enemy in the Bills offense is the incompletion, because incompletions are plays where no skill player has a chance to make a play. People argue that asking Allen to play that way is taking the ball out of his hands, it's compromising his greatness. I don't think so. His total yards rushing will go down, but that's okay because everyone knows that running the ball is going to shorten his career. His passer rating will go up, because his completion percentage will go up, his TD/INT ratio will go up. The Bills' total yards on offense will go up, because every play that is not an incompletion will add yards to the offense. Everything will go up except hits on the quarterback.

Or maybe it was Nicholas Nickleby. One of those guys.

Sorry he's leaving. He was an important security blanket. But I like it when guys know their own minds. As he began to be clear about what his role would be in Buffalo (and as Bernard was showing that he is a real obstacle to getting back on the field), he must have had a frank conversation with himself. He had a nice career. I wish him well.

"It seems difficult," is a good way to put it. Yes, even Sunday, even though lots of drives ended it touchdowns. I can't really prove it, but I think defenses have a book on Allen on the Bills. 1. Do not let him throw long. 2. Do not let him run. A lot of zone defense helps accomplish both of those things. Teams were able to get away with deep drops on zones in part (I think) because Allen didn't take the easy throw, the short throw, unless as a last resort. Sunday, he was taking those throws. It seemed almost like he was looking for them. That gave the offense the look of struggling, because he was throwing what looked like check downs, over and over. I don't think that's really what was happening. I think Allen really drank the Kool-Aid before Sunday's game, and the Bills showed the Raiders (and the league) that they score more or less every time if the defense is designed to stop Allen and the big play. The Bills really crushed the Raiders with that game. Now, it's not all on Allen. Yes, I think he made decisions the way the offense demands. But I think the other change is the running game. The ball isn't in Allen's hands all the time now, because he isn't the running game. So, it wasn't just Allen taking the easy throw. It also was the Bills running the ball with their backs, consistently, with positive gains on enough runs to make running a consistent contributor to the offense. It goes back to what I said about skill players. I think the way modern offenses succeed is by giving your skill guys the ball as often as you can. The more plays your skill players have the ball, the better your offense will be. Until we saw the Bills Sunday, giving the ball to the backs hasn't been something the Bills have wanted to do. The backs weren't great, and the offensive line didn't get the job done. But on Sunday, the running backs consistently hurt the defense, because the backs are better and the line is better. So, in a sense, on Sunday the Bills had more skill players on the field than they have in the past, because they had skill players with the right skills. The other part of getting the ball to skill players more often is a higher completion percentage. Every completed pass is another play a skill guy has contributed, and every completed pass is a chance for a skill guy to make a play. It's why I compared them to the 49ers. So, yes, even Sunday the offense looked difficult. But I think that's primarily because the Raiders defense sold out to stop the pass and stop Allen. Defenses wil adjust, because the Bills are saying to everyone, "If you don't stop our short stuff, you'll never get the ball. We can run 6-7-8-9 minute drives, and we can score in the red zone." Once defenses start looking for ways to stop the short stuff, the things that make the offense look easy - the 15-20 yard completions to open receivers, Allen breaking off a 20 yarder because the defense wasn't looking - will come back. In a way, I think what is happening is something that McDermott said several years ago - that he intended to build an offense that attacks every part of the field, sideline to sideline, from the line of scrimmage to the opponent's goal line. Allen and John Brown and Diggs gave him a way to attack deep up the sidelines. Davis became useful medium deep over the middle. Beasley helped shallower over middle, but he was limited in some ways. Allen wasn't good throwing the touch passes in the flat when he first got to Buffalo, and even now that he throws that ball well, he hasn't really had players who could do much of anything out there. Now, it's different. Kincaid is full-fledged threat in the middle, and he's more effective in the flat that the other tight ends. McKenzie wasn't versatile enough in the flat or over the middle. Cook is a threat in the flat, better than Singletary, and Murray is, too. The run game can attack the line of scrimmage. In short, the Bills look like they have what McDermott wanted, and the offense that can attack everywhere. To bring it back to Allen, he now doesn't have to be the answer on every play. He just has to get the ball to all the other guys. He's extraordinarily talented, physically, at doing that; he just as to keep taking the easy play, over and over. And then, every once in a while, on a play here and there, things won't go right, and Superman will save the day. As I said, what he needs to be is Brock Purdy most of the time - just run the play as designed, and get the ball to all those guys who can catch and run. Then, every once in a while, do something that Brock Purdy can only dream of.

Thanks. Good points. I don't think it's just the turnovers. I think he makes the game more difficult for his teammates. I wrote earlier about making the most of the skill players. I think, for example, the run-after-catch stats that people keep citing are an example of how he may make the game more difficult. Skipping the easy completion for the tougher throw is another. I think he can have easier wins by executing the offense better, by giving his playmakers more opportunities. I understand I may be full of it. I think Allen will get better at his decision making, and that's when I think he and the Bills will have real success.

Interesting. Thanks.

Well, my impression is that it just isn't that bad here. I seem to be able to find plenty of people to talk with in rational conversations. I use the ignore feature on 8-10 people, some of whom know a lot of football, but who are good at drawing me into arguments I don't want to be in. I don't want to be in those conversations, so I ignore the poster. Ignore allows us to know that ignored posters have posted in the thread, and it lets me look at posts individually. Lately I've been doing more of that, because some of them hav inteeresting points to make.

Well, I wouldn't be too tough on your fellows here. The reality is, a lot of fans were really wired for the opener. There was a lot pent up emotion, and a lot people who wanted to see the demons of last season exorcised. Instead, what they got was a disappointing showing in a big game, a nationally-televised game. It hurt. It wasn't surprising that there was a lot unhappiness expressed. Look at my Rockpile Review before the first game. I predicted that what we'd see against the Jets was a thoroughly human machine. Instead, what I got was a team that looked like the nervous challenger to the throne, instead of the steady defender of it. I didn't write a Rockpile Review that week, because I didn't want to talk about it. Just hurry up move on to the next game was how I felt. Fortunately, the next game made me feel better. Once we get a little farther into the season, once it's a little clearer what we have, then I expect the discussions will make more sense. So long as we aren't 3-4.

Very okay with his play? Oh, yeah, I'm on board with that. Absolutely. I'm not complaining about Josh. I'm never trading him, cutting him, losing him in free agency. What I'm talking about (at least my view of it) is whether Allen will be Aaron Rodgers or Philip Rivers. Or Michael Vick or Cam Newton. I think that how Allen played against the Jets looks familiar - it happens to him, and if it continues to happen he won't have reached the greatness we all expect of him. Right now, I think he's spectacular to watch but not winning as consistently as he should. When he really learns how to run games, he's going to be unbelievable. Here's an example of what I'm talking about. In a way, your offense is only as good as how many of your skill position guys make plays. This season it looks like Bills have some real talent at all the skill positions, deep talent. Plus, the Bills have the most skilled QB. The problem is maximizing the touches the skill guys get in the places where they can make plays. Allen is the one who can maximize the touches, because he's the guy who can get the ball to them. So Allen has to run the offense correctly. Once he does that, it should be amazing. Want to imagine what it can be like? I think at the skill positions, collectively the Bills look like the 49ers. Yeah, we can argue about the names, and the reputations, but Knox and Kincaid create a lot of threats at tight end. Kittle does, in different ways. Diggs is a serious threat, different from Deebo, but I don't know that I'm trading, even up. Bills running backs create tests. All the 49er guys have bigger reputations, but the Bills are similarly challenging to defenses. Now, imagine the 49ers having Allen at QB instead of Brock Purdy. I think it's easy to imagine what a huge difference that would be. If Allen ran that offense as designed, and you take his mobility, arm strength, toughness over Purdy's, that would be incredible. That's what I think Allen can be, and I'm all in on it. But it is very much about his ability to increase the touches for his teammates, and that's about sustaining drives and not turning it over. Want to know what the biggest stat of the game was? The Bills ran 74 plays to the Raiders 39. How many of those 74 plays were Josh Allen highlights? Very few. He spent the whole game making sure that the playmakers got the ball. When you have good playmakers, it's all about getting them the ball. And it's an added bonus when your QB is one of the best playmakers anyone has ever seen. That's why I think Allen getting his mistakes under control is important. I think his mistakes are the only thing keeping him from winning a lot, really a lot, of MVPs and Super Bowls, and whatever else you want to measure. I think if he starts playing with discipline and avoids mistakes, he could forever be in the conversation of top 5 QBs, all time. But time's a-wastin. If he doesn't become that, I'd guess he'll still win a Super Bowl. Everything will come together sometime, but his success could be so much greater than just one magical year.

Our collective lives with Josh Allen have been that Josh Allen, the guy throwing 2.25:1. That's what has to change. He needs to be productive at 3:1 rate. Josh is currently 15 on the career list; Cousins, Lamar, Patrick, Burrow, Herbert; they're all ahead of him. And I don't think adding in rushing TDs really matters, because everyone agrees that Josh running isn't sustainable. Plus, if you're going to add rushing TDs, you also have to add fumbles lost. Not that I live and die on ANY stat, but it is good evidence that Allen needs to make better decisions. He needs to put up games like the Raiders game - just routine wins, not full of adventure. Boring wins, if you will. That's what all the great ones did, do. Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Mahomes. It's a combination of great production and limiting mistakes. When Josh gets disciplined in his thinking, his wins will pile up. The Allen miracle plays and miracle wins will still happen, just like Rodgers and Mahomes, but not so often. Some people have talked before about whether the Jets game was a turning point in his career. Too early to tell, of course, but I thought he made a dramatic change from week to week, from taking the snap and trying to figure it out from there (Jets) to just running the play the way he's taught to run it (Raiders). Make the right decisions, take sure completions over possibly bigger games. Someone said we don't want to turn him into a game manager, but in fact a game manager, in the literal sense, is what he needs to be. Some people imply "athletically limited" when they talk about game managers, meaning the guy can't beat you with his body but he survives with his brain. Allen isn't that guy, obviously, but Allen does need to manage the game by running the plays as they were designed. Most of the Bills plays are designed without regard to Allen's physical skills; they're designed so that normal NFL starting quarterbacks can run them. Allen has to understand that on most plays, his special physical skills are not required, and he should play in a way that does not require him to use his special skills. He has to run the plays as they were designed - read the progressions and do what you're supposed to do. And do it with some principles in mind; principles like (in most cases) a 5-yard throw that has a 90% completion rate is better than a 30-yard throw that has a 50% completion rate and a 10% INT rate. Those are the kind of things that game managers do, because in their case, it's the only way they can survive in the league. But they are also the kind of thing that Brady and Manning did, too. Making good decisions, which will reduce the mistakes, will make Allen great. How great? Well, how long will it take him to play every game like the Raiders game? He's working on a streak of exactly one game. Based only on my stereo-typed view of alcoholics and recovery, and with apologies if I've offended, a part of the solution is an awareness of the problem and a daily intention not to have the problem today. I'd say the same thing to Josh. You've got one, can you make it two?

It's not about one's opinion of who Allen is. It's about your dismissive point, which was that bad games are not to be considered when evaluating Allen's greatness? Why should his good games be considered, but not his bad games? It's all part of the same package.

That's an interesting point. Frankly, I don't expect he'll ever be that kind of QB. I don't think his body is built for it. His body gives him other advantages, but natural quickness is something he doesn't have. Imagine Allen as a wideout. He can't run routes as well as Davis, because his body won't let him. And imagining how he would run routes compared to Diggs is actually funny. Time-to-release is a useful stat, but I think it's principal importance is as a pass-fail test. If you pass, it doesn't matter so much if you were the fastest or slowest. That is, I don't think it matters much if Allen is really fast. I think he brings so much to the game, there's nothing wrong with being just average in some categories. Against the Raiders, I could imagine that this could be a team that is unstoppable. If Allen is disciplined like that, the oline protects him like that, the Bills have a lot of weapons. Three running backs, five receivers. And Allen.

Sorry, but this just flat out wrong. Praise of Allen's play in a game helps establish his greatness, but criticism of his play in a game isn't a valid commentary on the bigger picture? If Josh Allen's poor decision making costs the Bills two games a year, that absolutely is a "larger Josh Allen problem." Two losses a year essentially would mean that for his team to be as good as it should be, Allen has to single-handedly save two other games. In other words, those two games when Allen pulls a rabbit out of hat don't count as part of his greatness, because it's really only offsetting two games he lost. How a player plays every game is part of the analysis of that player's greatness or lack of it. Ask Bill Buckner.

Well, I'm still not so thrilled. I do think the guy needs SOME ability to break tackles; he needs at least a little power in his game. But having said that, I agree with you. And there's a particular point that you didn't mention that has impressed me. I think he sees the creases really well. He has some hesitation in his game, not always, but sometimes, because he seems to understand that the opening isn't there yet but it's coming. Your point about his speed and smooth cutting is relevant here. When he sees where he wants to go, he's quick to accelerate, and he accelerates really well. And it is smooth; he just flows into his cuts. He'll never be a power back and I'm not sure he's going to break a lot of really long runs. But he's a constant threat to go 12 yards, a bigger threat than Singletary was. And because he catches the ball well, part of what makes him a threat is that the Bills can get him the ball in places necessary to attack every part of the line of scrimmage, from the right flat right through the middle of the line to the left flat. Singletary attacked between the tackles, and the Bills needed McKenzie in the lineup to threaten wide. Cook means the Bills can attack all along the line with just one guy. Sunday they ran a few stretch handoffs to get Cook on the edge before the defense could adjust. Allen has the ability to get out to make the handoff behind the tackle in a hurry. He doesn't look like a superstar, but he has the potential to be seriously good. Well, let's say that differently: I'm becoming convinced that he IS seriously good; it's just that people around the league aren't really understanding it yet. (I feel the same way about Rousseau. Later this season, I think the talking heads will be talking about both of them.) Two other related points. First, I know he's not Marcus Allen, but Cook's running style reminds me of Allen. Allen was really smooth, and Cook is smooth like him. Cook seems to glide around the field the way Allen did. Allen had the power that made him a Hall of Famer, and Cook may never show that, but the fact that his style looks like Allen is enough for now. Second, I think the Bills needed a running back like Cook in order for McDermott's vision for the offensive line to work. I'm sure that McDermott's vision is an offensive line that can do it all - protect the passer and support a running game that can dominate in the fourth quarter. His vision of the players he needs are the jackknife guys we keep seeing on his roster. Brown and Dawkins are not classic offensive tackles. They don't hold up to the pass rush as well as elite guys, but they're both mobile in ways that give the run game a lot of variety. There was a play Sunday where Brown ended up ahead of a five-yard run off left tackle. I only saw the replay once, and I simply couldn't figure out how he got there. There was another play when Dawkins led Cook into the hole off right guard. Morse, of course, gets upfield really well. The challenge for the offensive line is to be that mobile and still keep Allen in clean pockets. That went pretty well on Sundays and frankly, the Bills expect Allen to read the rush well enough to escape when his mobile offensive line isn't quite perfect in pass pro.

A lot more QBs get hyped in the draft and their first year or two than deserve it.

I agree. I never got the feeling that he had the passion a lot of guys had. It seemed like he was playing football because his family expected it or something. Passion drives great play.

Oh, yeah!. Allen's discipline on Sunday was excellent. He really managed the team well, because he was making the easy play so often. If he keeps doing that, his greatness will really emerge. I always compare him to Elway, who played several seasons without really getting the same Superman approach under control. Finally, at the end of his career, he did it, and then he really could dominate. The combination of making the right decisions and having special physical skills to make the plays is spectacular. And I hear you about Mahomes. Others have said it. He makes some dumbass plays, too. I think the difference is that Mahomes generally stays on script in terms of taking the easy throw. Allen's problem is when he goes off script, his completion percentage drops, and that makes long drive's difficult. Sunday, he just kept taking the easy throws, his percentage went up, and the ball kept moving. Mahomes has the higher completion percentage.

I don't know, but I think they will improve. Traffic engineering is a science, like anything else. They have data about what opening day traffic is like, but they only could guess how people would approach the stadium area given that those Abbott Road lots are no longer there. They now have the opening day data, and I'm sure they'll make some traffic adjustments to avoid the mess. After all, people should now be parking farther from the stadium, given the lot closing. It'll get better.