Shaw66

Great stuff. Thanks. This is a great explanation of why Tua still looks like a college quarterback. He's deadly when everything goes right. If you think about it, none of the great current QBs is successful because they play like that. They are managing the pocket and finding a receiver, often on the second, third, or fourth read AND they have the arm to deliver the ball. Tua's succeeding because he doesn't have to do that, yet, but the time is coming. And when teams get fully on board about how to stop him, he will struggle. But, as you say, many of his throws are absolute things of beauty. Deadly accurate.

I think you're right about this. Bill are going with Benford and Jackson, both of whom can play, with Elam now working his way back into the rotation. The Bills will miss White, for sure, but they'll be fine. I feel so bad for White. What a shame. Did you watch Mac Jones? You've gotta be a REALLY smart thrower if you have a noodle arm like his. Allen is now learning to be a really smart thrower, AND he has an arm that can make the throws Jones dreams of.

When I started talking about completion percentage a week or two ago, I compared the Bills to the 49ers. They have unbelievable skill players, but the Bills aren't too shabby. What I said was that Allen has to play like Brock Purdy - just take the easy throw and let the skill players do their thing. The difference, of course, is that when you need your quarterback to make a play, the 49ers have Brock Purdy. The Bills have Allen.

The offense was simply beautiful. And so was the defense. It was high quality football.

That's interesting. In the Rockpile, I said something like the Bills aren't the biggest, aren't the strongest, aren't the fastest. But they are big, enough, strong enough, and fast enough. All across the lineup.

The Bills beat the Dolphins in Orchard Park on Sunday, 48-20. It was one of those games where the main statistics don’t tell the story. 24 first downs to 20, 414 to 393 total yards. Pretty even, huh? Some numbers give a better picture. Two takeaways to none. Four sacks to two. Nine QB hits to three. Whatever the stats say, ten minutes into the second quarter the Bills took control of the game and never let go. That’s when the Bills scored their third consecutive touchdown to open the game, and that’s when the Bills’ defense took over. The Dolphins couldn’t match that third touchdown, and before long it was 28-14, and then 31-14 to end the half. The Dolphins opened the third quarter with a touchdown, but the Bills simply weren’t letting them back into the game. It was a big game. A really big game. A Dolphins win and would have given them a two-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East. In the weeks before, the Dolphins had shown a seemingly unstoppable, quick-strike offense the likes of which the NFL hadn’t seen in years. Sean McDermott, his coaches, and his players were up to the challenge. They didn’t exactly shut down the Dolphins, except on third and fourth down, where the Dolphins were 3 for 10 and 0 for 3. The Bills were dominant. Because the Dolphins were going to get some points, the Bills didn’t need just the defense. The offense had to show up, and it did. Oh, boy, did it. The new Josh Allen, the guy who’s learned how to put up gaudy completion percentages by taking the easy throw, was deadly. He didn’t throw long unless he had single coverage – once to Diggs for a TD and once for an interference call, one TD to Davis, one incomplete to Shakir, maybe one or two more. The rest of his throws were easy-peasy, to all sorts of receivers, and the chains kept moving. I’ve been focused on completion percentage lately. It’s the key to success for Josh Allen and the Bills, and it’s no surprise that after three stellar outings, Allen leads the league in that category. Why is completion percentage so important? Because the more chances the skill position players have to make plays, the more yards the team gains, the more first downs the team gets. More first downs means even more touches for the skill players. It feeds itself. Why are touches for skill players so important? Because when the skill players get the ball, they have opportunities to make plays, and sometimes they do. It was 34-20, still a game, when Micah Hyde intercepted Tua. The Bills were on the verge of settling for a field goal when, on third and five, Allen took the easy throw to Harty in the left flat. Allen’s throw was short, and Harty had to go to his knees to make the catch, short of the sticks. He got up and made a nifty little run for the first down. Allen hit Diggs for the touchdown on the next play. Allen checking down to Harty, the smart play, and Harty’s run, were worth four points. The benefit of having a player like Allen is not to call his number as a regular part of the offense. What makes Allen great is that when all else has failed, he can make plays that no one else in the league, except Mahomes, can make. His short TD pass to Diggs over the middle was sweet and special. His touchdown run was vintage Allen. Oh, and when it comes to getting the ball to the skill players, no one throws the football like Allen. The touchdown to Davis was simply perfect. The Bills lineup was full of guys who made a difference: Ed Oliver. Over and over. Diggs. Oh, my. Bernard. Takeaway, again. And more. Murray. The guy can move the ball. Milano. Oh, my, too. Knox. Can you say run after catch? Kincaid. Josh’s new security blanket. Up and down the lineup, guys made plays. The Dolphins feature their speed. The Bills feature good football players, waves of them. Defensive linemen, offensive lineman, defensive backs, running backs, receivers, everyone. They’re smart, rugged, relentless. Not the biggest, but big enough. Not the fastest, but fast enough. Not the best, maybe, but more than good enough. I heard a coach say once that teams should break down the season into four quarters, and the objective is to go at least 3-1, every quarter season. After the loss to the Jets, and given what the Dolphins had been doing, 3-1 required a special effort. Mission accomplished. On to London. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

This correct. At this point in the season, DVOA represents how the team did last season, with some subjective adjustments.

I agree. Am I really going to worry that Davis got only two yards after his catch before he ran into the end zone?

so far, he's been more than either of us imagined

I didn't know what to expect of Harty but I agree, he's been disappointing. It might have something to do with Dorsey (sooner or later I always come back to Dorsey!). A guy like Harty has to get the ball in stride and in space that allows get up to speed before he has to deal with tacklers. Instead, he seems to get the same opportunities that didn't work for McKenzie, either. As for Bernard, I hate to bring up a sore subject, but I told you so. I mean, I had the same doubts that many people had here. What I also had, that many people didn't, is confidence in McDermott and Beane. If Bernard were as bad as we thought he was, McDermott and Beane would have done something to get help. They did nothing, and as I suspected, they did nothing because they knew the defense would be fine with Bernard in the middle. They brought in Kirksey to be a veteran backup, not to take the starting job. Did I expect him to be the guy we saw on Sunday? No. The Cover One video breakdown of him shows some amazing talent, both physical and mental.

Well, look. I don't really know or even have an opinion about whether under center is better and what the right mix ought to be. What I learned in this thread is that he's been much more effective when running play action, and I do believe that play action works better when you're under center, for reasons I've given: Fakes are more effective because you can hide the ball. The QB is in motion to make handoffs or fake them, and when the QB is in motion there's another opportunity to confuse the defense with misdirection. But I don't really care. All I want is for Allen to get his completion percentage consistently high, because I think that's what's needed to make the Bills really effective. And for Allen to do that, he has to take the high percentage throws more often. If he can do that better running play action, then great, run more play action. If he can do that running plays out of the shotgun, works for me. Just complete more passes. And I actually don't care if they take the threat of designed runs out of the offense. Allen shouldn't be running many designed runs. Where his running hurts teams is his scrambles. He'll scramble out of any offense, doesn't matter if he's under center or in shotgun. Allen's physical skills that will make him an all-time great are his arm, number 1, his ability to escape the pocket and throw on the run, number 2, his ability to stay upright in the pocket and not got knocked down easily, number 3, and his ability to run for first downs off scrambles, number 4. He is not going to win Super Bowls by being a running threat. Newton didn't win any, Vick didn't win any, Lamar hasn't won any. Quarterbacks win Super Bowls by being great throwers and field generals.

Well, first, one of the objectives is to have Allen run less, so I'm not in a hurry to run QB draws.

Yeah, I guess that's true, and teams do run all those actions out of the shotgun. Mostly what's different is the faking. Out of the shotgun the QB facing the line of scrimmage and can't hide the ball nearly as well. Also, the stretch runs are different, and the faking is different under center. When the QB runs left to fake the stretch run handoff and then rolls right, the QB's movement is a major part of the motion that misleads the defenders.

Yes, I may be leaning too far to the conservative side. Wouldn't be the first time. But you're arguing a bunch of things that (1) I don't agree about, and (2) neither of us actually knows, because we don't have the data. I would say the probability of completing that pass was around 50%. And whenever the ball is thrown into a crowd of defenders, there's a chance of interception. But I admit, I don't have the data. But I don't think there's any argument that a coach would prefer to be 2nd and five from the 14 rather than second and ten from the 19. Sure, first downs are tougher to get in the red zone, if you have a good offense, you should be able to get a first down after second and five, and that first down means you have three more plays to try to score the touchdown. The analytics guys know the probabilities of all of these situations. They know the probability of getting a touchdown from first and ten on the 19 if you throw a pass with a 50% likelihood of it being caught as compared to if you throw a pass with an 80% likelihood, and with the interception probabilities thrown in. Neither of us knows, but I feel quite confident that the smart play on first down is take the easy throw.

that's good analogy. You'd much rather save the out than gain the base. Why, because your chances of getting a run out of the inning are better if 100 times in a row you keep the man on second than if you try to stretch it.

I think the running game is what McDermott is willing to give to teams. It's always been like that with his Bills team. They get gashed occasionally in the run game. In this game, McDermott figures stopping the pass is the most important aspect of good defense, and he wants a pass defense that can stop the run as well as possible. Heck, he plays with a cornerback and two small linebackers. McDermott doesn't think that the average running team can run effectively enough against his defense to hurt him consistently. When he plays an especially good running team, he can't muscle up his line, but he tries to adjust the scheme to stop the run. Every once in a while Washington ripped off a good run, and it made momentarily disappointed in the defense. Then I told myself that that is what comes with this defense. You just hope when it happens, you stop it short of Dalvin Cook going the distance.

True, but I think when Josh sees Diggs in a small opening, he knows Diggs will make a good play on the ball. He doesn't know that about Knox. At the end of the day, athletic ability wins over size, I think. My real point is I don't think on first down in that situation you want Allen to throw to either of them. You're just less likely to get a touchdown out of that possession by throwing that pass than by taking a five-yard gain somewhere, because your probability of a first down is better at 2nd and 5 than 2nd and 10. The first down gets you three more plays. 3rd and goal or 4th and goal if you're going for it, okay, throw that pass. Before then, if you can get a first down, take what the play gives and try again. You're trying to score, sure, but the best way to score is to have a lot of chances to score. If you tell me in advance that my time will, 100% get the offensive rebound, then every shot is a good shot. Doesn't matter if I'm good or not, I should hoist it up first chance I get, because if I miss my team will get another shot anyway. Well, in football, there aren't offensive rebounds, but there are first downs, which give your team additional shots, just in a different way. Take the touchdown if it's there for the taking, but if it isn't a gimme, work on the first down. I was thinking about Steph Curry. He is a great half-court shooter, because he's a great shooter and he practices half-court shots. When it's the middle of the second quarter and he's bringing the ball up court, he doesn't just launch it from half court. If he does, what does he say to the coach? "I can make that shot, so it's a good shot." Coach says, "It's not the best shot." It's the same with Josh. Josh's coach says to him, "Yes, Josh, I know you can throw that pass better than anyone else in the league. We all get it. That just does not mean that throwing that pass is the best option at this time." Don't take the relatively low probability throw until there is a reason that high probability throw simply won't help.

It might be the right amount of aggression if you're throwing to a really good pass catcher, like Diggs. When you're throwing to Davis, you know what you're getting in pass catching. When you're throwing to Knox you what you're getting. With different receivers, you have a different probability of success. That's I keep saying the easy throw doesn't just mean check downs. The TD to Davis was an easy throw, because with single man coverage, Davis running free behind it, it's an easy throw. The throw to Knox was not an easy throw - he had defenders around him, and it was Knox catching. If it's Diggs, it might be the right throw. If it's Knox, find a way to get 5 or 6 yards, and maybe break a tackle.

For me, I think of him as not dependable because just doesn't seem to be a smooth (ah, there's that word, I get it know) pass catchers. What makes him good is that he's athletic enough to make tough catches - turns his body pretty well, is a pretty good hands catcher, survives the ground pretty well, AND he's a big tough guy. Not the biggest and not the toughest, but he can mix it up. But he's all like Diggs, seems to be able always to be able to get his body in position to make a play AND still have the focus to catch the ball like he's playing the backyard. The point of the comment was that it was Knox and not a pass catcher like Diggs, because if it's Diggs it's a higher probability throw. I don't think that's a knock on Knox. That's just recognizing that the guy's collection of skills make him valuable on the field even if catching everything thrown at him is not his greatest talent.

Ha! That's very interesting. I do think he will learn to take the easy throw. That's why I've always said that Josh is John Elway. Elway was just physically better most of the guys on the field - big and strong and fast and could throw. What made him almost unique as a QB he just said, "look, just give me the ball and I'll make it happen." He was a baseball phenom who could dominate football games. He was, in other words, a lot like Josh. All things considered, Josh is just a better athlete than everyone. Big enough to at least stand eye-to-eye with a lineman and say, "Okay, let's do. You and me." Fast enough to say to linebackers, "Sorry, you can't take that angle with me." With an arm that says, "Oh, yes, I CAN make that throw." Elway learned that even though he was THAT guy, he couldn't win games that weren't managed properly. He learned that there always would be times in the season when the game would demand that Elway be Elway, even when the game is managed properly. Think about the touchdown to Davis. Allen had been playing the game pretty much on script, take the easy throw, etc. Then, suddenly, Dorsey called a play and Davis could see the opportunity and knew how to run the route, and Josh knew, too, and that's when Josh being Josh took over and one of the most beautifully thrown passes you've ever seen dropped right into where it was supposed to be. That throw is makes Josh different. And the fact that he can do pretty much everything else that you might need on a football field. McDermott and Josh are too smart not to see that. McDermott can show Josh film of Favre, show him actual plays where Josh can see that Favre going off script made his team less effective and cost his team games. And film of Brady and show him that executing the whole thing with your brain, you can be great with just average physical skills. McDermott is challenging Allen to be the playmaker he is, to be Favre, and still play with his considerable native intelligence, or to be Brady, too. I think that's what Elway did.

I agree with this, but I view it a little differently. I think it's less about balance, or at least it SHOULD be less about balance, and more about taking the easy play every time. And I definitely include the TD to Davis in the easy-play category. For Josh, that was a high-percentage throw - single coverage, a step on the defender, and Josh can put it where it needs to be. Lately I've been saying the Bills should do what the 49ers do, which is to run their offense to get the ball in the hands of their skill players, over and over, and let them make plays. Purdy chooses the easy play, over and over, and he doesn't try to fit the ball into tight windows. He doesn't because he isn't that skilled, but the fact that Josh is more skilled doesn't mean he should be taking the higher risk throw. That's why I raised the throw to Knox. The way the offense works best is to increase the number of plays where your skill players have the ball. Just keep giving them the ball until you score. The problem with the throw to Knox was that relative to wherever the five-yard gain was (and I'm sure it was there somewhere), it was low percentage play, and choosing the low percentage play meant that the Bills only had two plays left to score a touchdown, instead of likely having five plays to score a touchdown. For example, with 15 seconds left in the game, and needing a touchdown from the 19, one reason that situation is desperate is that you only two or three more plays. You'd much rather five. Well, Josh was in a position to have five plays to make a touchdown, but he bet that opportunity on getting it all on one play. Fortunately, he didn't throw an interception, which is the possibility with a throw like that, but he also made it much less likely that he had only two more plays before they kicked the field goal. So, I don't think it's a question of balancing. I think it's a question of analytics. If you could calculate (and I think the Bills HAVE calculated) the likelihood of getting a touchdown by throwing that pass and compare it to the likelihood of getting a touchdown by checking down, I think we'd see that checking down is just the smarter play, because it makes it much more likely that you'll have up to five more plays to score. As I said, I think that the advantage that Allen gives the Bills is that his special talents mean that some throws are high probability completions for him and lower probability for most other QBs. That means that there are throws that are lower risk for him than for other QBs. But that doesn't mean that he should gamble on some throws that are higher risk, lower probability even for him. He should be taking easy throws all the time; it's just that more throws are easy for him than for most QBs.

For me, that's not a lot. Actually, what I meant is that there's not a lot to say that wasn't apparent to any Bills fan who watched.

I agree, and it's a good point, but my eye tells me there's a difference. Play action from the shotgun is the simple fake handoff to the running back standing beside or behind the QB. It's essentially a fake draw-play. Kelly and Thurman ran it all the time, but that was at a time when defenses hadn't adjusted yet to that style. Play action from under center is more threatening to the defense. For one thing, the QB makes some affirmative movements in order to execute the fake, movements that look exactly like a running play, and depending on what's being faked, it could be any kind of running play - pulling linemen, draw, power, off tackle, stretch play. It's hard to simulate all of that out of shotgun. So, I think, the defense is forced to respond to the urgency of the play-fake coming from the QB at the line of scrimmage. The actual fake also tends to be much more effective from under center. The play-fake on Josh's TD pass to Knox last week is an example. Josh had his back to the line of scrimmage with the ball tucked way into his belly while his other hand executed the fake. He and the running back passed so close to each other that it was really hard for the defense to see if he put the ball into the back's belly or kept it. The result was that when he rolled left he was left with very few defenders in front of him. You just can't fake like that out of the shotgun, because the ball always is in full view. And one other thing about playing under center. If you have a tall QB, and the Bills do, the QB can stand up and make the quick throw to the receiver running a shall inside slant. Or take a three-step drop and throw. The benefit of doing that has to do with geometry. If you're three yards behind the line scrimmage and throwing over the middle, fewer defensive linemen are in the line of sight of the QB than when you're six or seven yards behind the line. (Draw a picture and you'll see.) So being under center makes a few passing plays more effective. And two more things: Josh has a bad tendency to escape backward, which allows the edge rushers to slip their blocks. When Josh is dropping from under center, he naturally can't get as deep in the pocket, which will help him step up, rather than step back, when the rush comes. And it also helps Josh run a quick hitting draw play - two-step drop and burst up the middle. I can see a lot of advantages to having him under center.

Not a lot to say about the Bills rolling over the Commanders. Just a solid, dominant performance. Here are a few reactions: I would have liked a couple more touchdowns and a couple fewer field goals. I have no doubt Bernard has plenty of areas where improvement is required, but his football instincts/quick-twitch playmaking style is a refreshing change from Edmunds’ style. Benford had a few problems, but I like how he plays, too. Hard not to look good with five takeaways and holding the Commanders to 1 out of 9 on third down. That’s a pretty good formula. I’m loving the relentless pass rush. McDermott has been saying for years that he needed that kind of front four, and these guys are scintillating. No idea if yesterday was just a game, or a serious breakthrough, but Epenesa showed up. Also loving the running back rotation. Those three guys just keep moving the ball. Seems like every time the defense slows one guy, another comes in and makes a play. Offensive line was solid again protecting Josh. Another day of the new-style Josh. Most of the time, he just took the easy throw. 20-32 isn’t good enough for my taste, but he made it work. High completion percentage doesn’t make a team good, but it’s an indicator of a style of play that leads to success. It means the chains are moving. Early in the game we saw a perfect example of the old-style Josh hurting team performance. On the first drive, 1st and ten on the Commanders’ 19 yard line, Josh threw into a crowd to Knox in the endzone. It was one of those throws we’ve seen often from Josh, where he fires into a tight window and his receiver makes the catch. The play didn’t quite connect. Cook for one yard on second down, incompletion on third down. Field goal. Josh has to stop making that first-down throw. Third and ten, okay, but not on first down. Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less. I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere. There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space. Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler. From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10. The Bills offense is good enough to keep taking the easy play. It moves the ball and it reduces turnovers. Eventually, defenses will adjust to try stop the relentless ball movement, and when that happens, Josh will hit someone on the run, as he hit Davis against the Commanders. Solid performance. Tua won’t throw four interceptions. But he might get sacked nine times! GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

That's an interesting take. The only top team that bucks the trend is the 49ers. I suspected that teams that run more under center also run the ball more, and that's true. It's not exactly a one-to-one correlation, but generally speaking, the teams that played most out of shotgun also passed the most. The 49ers were in the top half of teams with highest running percentage. Not sure what to make of this. I don't think that the Bills ought to play out of shotgun just because the successful teams do. Maybe it means that shotgun and passing is the best way to build an offense, but as Orlovsky suggests, some of it may have to do with the strength and weakness of your QB. For one thing, the shorter the QB, the more I'd think you'd want him in shotgun, because he needs as much help seeing the field as possible. Beyond that, some QBs may be better in one formation than the other. As Einstein's data showed, Josh seems to be much effective passing in play action (probably true for pretty much every QB), and that would be one argument in favor of running under center. As the commentators tell us every week, because it's true, if you can run the ball, then play action sucks in the linebackers and makes passing over the middle easier. It certainly helps to be able to have gimme throws for 12-15 yards over the middle. Orlovsky is just one voice, but I suspect this is an issue the Bills have listened to, or will. I'm sure they have the data already, which means they know how successful they've been each way, even broken down by down, distance, time of game, red zone, etc. Orlovsky seems to think there's a dramatic difference with Josh, and maybe there is. As for giving Josh an advantage when he runs the ball, maybe he does run better out of the shotgun, but the Bills offense will feature Josh running less and less. Josh's running edge will continue to be a factor, but primarily on scrambles and not designed runs. He's agile and mobile, and I think he probably can scramble off plays that start under center just as well as shotgun plays.