Shaw66

No idea what to expect. This team could be on top of the league, to open the season or to end it. Given how competitive the league is, it could miss the playoffs (but I don't expect that). I no longer believe I actually have any ability to foresee what's coming. Just going to live it as it happens.

I'm just so ready for this season to begin. Anxious.

I just wanted to say that this really is a great place for Bills fans to come and talk football from our perspective. A lot of people come here and share ideas about various things, and that's a nice opportunity for all of us. Take a look at the topics on the first page: Not a lot about the talents, the pluses and minuses of the position players because, well, it's all been said. Now, everyone is just ready for things to get going. In the meantime, lets talk about how the Cowboys are ruining football, Chad Kelly's contract, why someone is optimistic or pessimistic. It's something to talk about while we're waiting, and pretty much all of us can find something interesting in one or another these topics. In a sense, it's as though we've all been through preseason and now we're ready. There's nothing left other than wait. We're the nervous guys in the landing craft, ready to go ashore on D-Day. Just idle chatter before the battle. They did it for real; remarkable courage, and I don't mean to demean them at all. It's just that we have a similar feeling, trivial by comparison, but similar nonetheless. This forum provides that idle chatter nicely. It's like the neighborhood tavern. Virtually. Be grateful.

He calls the back-end of the Bills' schedule a seven-game death march. Yes, this. I got trashed earlier this summer when I pointed how little coverage about the Bills there was on ESPN.com and other major outlets. The reason, I said, is that the media cater to the fans and promote the big-market teams. I think the average fans around the country thought the Bills were done. Now that the writers who actually know something about the game are making their predictions, the Bills are in everyone's discussions, because people who know the game know that the Bills have the roster and the coaching to compete for the trophy.

This is great. Thank you. It fills in the blanks. I recall having heard McDermott talk about the bye week that way. But the real answer is analytics. They have people (soon to be just AI) analyzing formations, plays, defenses, results, etc. on a regular basis and generating reports about tendencies, success rates, defensive trends, etc. That's the piece that's missing from the article, or just lost in the details of the week. I'm sure Dorsey is a getting a weekly report about last week's game, monthly and year-to-date trends in all of that stuff. He knows what has worked, what hasn't worked, and what defenses are doing to the Bills. And if he's any good, when he sees what's working, he'll ask himself and McDermott what defenses are likely to do to stop it, so Dorsey can try to create something that will keep him ahead of the defenses. (That's what drives you nuts about the Chief's red zone offense. As defenses begin to plan for whatever wrinkle they're using, like that shovel pass to Kelce, Reid is planning what play will work to confound the defensive adjustment.) The complexity these guys are mired in as they plan week-to-week is amazing. Thanks. It's all just information that's in the mix as the coaches develop their plans from week to week. lt's just Bado telling you that he already knew what the article said. He's really smart. But his final point is correct. It's an ultra-competitive labor of love industry.

I agree. He was a physical freak who didn't make plays. Allen's a freak, too. One out of two isn't bad.

I understand. Edmunds doesn't make splash plays. I don't think Kirksey will, either. Bills are just looking for someone who will play the position solidly. Impact plays out of the middle linebacker is a luxury the Bills haven't tried to acquire, so I'm not expecting anything special. Leonard, Groot, Miller, White, Milano, Hyde, and Poyer are the guys who have to make the splashes.

I don't think so. I don't think the Bills will get them Kirksey, and I don't think the Bills need them. I mean, I'd like some sacks from the middle linebacker, and I'd like some nice stuffed runs in the middle from the middle linebacker, but I think that what I've been saying is that the middle linebacker isn't the guy the Bills are looking to to be the big-play guy. They hoped Edmunds would be that, but I think the recent draft/free agency history of Beane suggests that they no longer thing that kind of guy is a "need" on defense. We're happy to have Hyde and Poyer and White - all impactful players. Beane drafted Elam to be one, although he hasn't worked out. He drafted Rousseau and Oliver to be impactful, and he signed Miller and Leonard and Jones to be impactful. At middle linebacker, all he's done is get guys they hope can play the position adequately. Beane's problem last month was that no one on the roster was filling the hole adequately. That's why they got Kirksey - in his career he's shown he can be adequate. Not impactful, but adequate.

It's in the Buffalo News, if you get it. It's a good review of the week. Amazing workload. My reaction was that the week is about trees, and I wonder when they sit down and look at the forest. What I mean is that the week goes like this: Critique the plays on Sunday, review film of next opponent and develop game plan, install plan, tweak it, play the next game. The article didn't say anything about looking at the bigger picture. For example, last season something was wrong in the red zone. If all they do is what's described in the article, they're just correcting the plays they called last week and picking some plays for next week based on what they see in the defense. Where's the big-picture scouting of the Bills' red zone philosophy? How do defenses know how to stuff the red zone plays? I can't believe that they wait until the off-season to think about that problem. I mean, at some point McDermott must be looking Dorsey in the eye and asking for something more than "do better." I suppose that's part of the process, but it's not described anywhere in the article. I hope so, because it's not enough to be looking at the trees all day, or worse yet, the leaves.

I don't really know how good Kirksey is, but this is what I think about his pass defense: Rushing defense is more instinctive, pass defense, particularly in zones, is more intellectual. In pass defense you need to learn where to drop, how to read multiple keys. You can't turn around look at the other defenders and reposition yourself. You just have to know where to go, and that's learned. That is, I think, what Dodson and Bernard and Williams have trouble with. They have to learn that, and they aren't ready to play pass defense effectively (if they ever will be). Kirksey has started in the NFL for a long time. He has learned that stuff - if he couldn't play pass defense, teams wouldn't have continued to sign him to nice, multi-year deals. So, I conclude from that that he's at least adequate back there. I don't see how he can be "not a good defender of any kind." GMs aren't stupid. They have scouts who study a lot of film on guys before they draft and before they sign them. If Kirksey were not a good defender, or at least adequate, he wouldn't have the contract history his has. In the three seasons where he played the entire season, he had 130, 130, and 140 tackles. In five seasons in the NFL, Edmunds got over 100 once - 105. The guy must know how to play. Staying healthy is the big issue for him, and possibly age.

Yeah, it was pretty clear to me that aggressive tackling was somethin he was working on. It didn't come naturally, but he made a go at it.

That's interesting. Thanks. Strictly based on my own eye test, I would guess that Edmunds put up that stat (which is pretty amazing) because he rarely laid out to hit someone, and he rarely came in hard and lead with his shoulder. His tackling style is to hug the ball carrier and wrestle him down. He's a big guy, so when he can get close enough to hug the guy, he's going down. I would guess that what doesn't show up in that stat are the times that he didn't attempt the tackle because he was coming on the scene passively. And he rarely made tackles driving the ball carrier back toward the line of scrimmage; he'd hug the guy and get dragged downfield a bit. I think running backs knew they weren't going to get punished running up the middle, and that's not what you want running backs thinking. They thought, "The big guy may tackle me, but he isn't going to hurt me." His gap discipline was pretty bad early in his career, but he cleaned that up as the seasons went by. Now, I was a pretty big Edmunds defender while he was here, because I thought he was an important part of the pass defense, but i never defended his run-stopping or blitzing. As others have said, McBeane hoped he would grow into a transcendent linebacker, but he never did. I think their experience with Edmunds caused them to refine their thinking a bit. I think they now think that they need a guy with quickness and physical toughness in the middle, a guy who is solid but not necessarily a star in the pass defense. I think they kept hoping Klein would emerge as a solid pass defender, but he just couldn't do it. They've seen Kirksey on film, and I'm guessing he can give them what they need. I'm sure they're still hoping one of Dodson, Bernard, or Williams will emerge.

Wow. That's amazing. Parcells and Belichick always had this kind of love-hate relationship, because they were fundamentally different guys. I wonder if Belichick helps out his former players. He doesn't seem like that kind of guy.

It's the difference between offense and defense. Except for running backs, offensive skill position players often protect themselves. That's a change from the old days, when everyone was expected to be aggressive hitters. On defense, there's not a lot of room for guys who don't punish ball carriers. If Edmunds was protecting himself for five years to be sure he got a contract, well, the Bills should have dumped him earlier. Especially for a guy who plays in the middle, he is one of the least aggressive hitters I've seen in recent years.

Edmunds had amazing range. He covered a lot of space. Given how much he was in the vicinity, it was surprising how relatively few plays he made.

I don't know the answers to your questions, but I'm confident I'm correct about this. I'm as old or older than you. I grew up a Jim Brown fan, and so I knew a lot about Sam Huff and Ray Nitschke. Then Butkus. Those were the days when the middle linebacker was THE MAN. Then the man was Lawrence Taylor, and suddenly everything changed. As the game evolved, the edge rushers took over. Ray Lewis was a throwback. Brian Uhrlacher was a star middle linebacker, but what him a star was his ability to take deep drops in the Cover 2. His special skill was pass defense. Yes, he was big and strong, but he ushered in the change to mobile pass coverage middle linebackers. I, like a lot of people still carry the image of Sam Huff and Ray Lewis with me, but I've come to believe that those guys are history. It's a passing league, and the back seven are critical to a good pass defense. As offenses have spread, all seven back defenders have had to be mobile enough to cover wideouts, faster tight ends, and running backs. Huff and Nitschke would struggle today. Keuchle may have been last of the great two-way (run-pass) middle linebackers. I think McBeane hoped that Edmunds would play the run tough enough to be a Keuchle type dominator, but he never developed into that. So, I've begun thinking that the middle linebacker just isn't as important as the other positions. I think Beane confirmed it the other day, when he said that if they're relatively weak in the middle, the players around them will have to pick them up. It's impossible to say that about any other position on defense. Those positions cannot be the weak link. But middle linebacker can. With Edmunds gone, the zone the middle linebacker covers necessarily must shrink. So that means Milano, Johnson, the corners and the safeties will each have to increase their coverage zones a bit, but that's six guys dividing up the space that Edmunds used to cover. That's a weakness, to be sure, but their zones will now be the same size as the zones all other pass defenders have (because those defenders don't have Edmunds, either). But in exchange, the Bills are looking for a guy to play the middle who can defend the pass effectively and attack ball carriers and the quarterback better than Edmunds (which frankly shouldn't be very hard). That's what I've been thinking. And I think it's confirmed by Beane having made major moves to strengthen or keep every defensive position EXCEPT middle linebacker. They're obviously just looking for a quick, smart, aggressive tackling athlete. Bernard, Williams, Dodson. They aren't looking for Keuchle any more. I think the game has changed, and old timers like me are just catching up to that fact. Kirksey will be the guy. He has experience calling the defense, which is part of the problem with Dodson, Bernard and Williams. He has been an effective pass defender. And he's better against the run than Edmunds, and a better blitzer, too. He is not going to be a star, but as I've been saying, the Bills seems to have decided that middle linebacker is the position where a star is least necessary.

I like this post. Nice overall summary. I want to add a few things. First, I never said linebacker is insignificant. I said that when we look at the totality of Beane and McDermott's roster building, I think it's clear that linebacker is, in their minds, the least important defensive position, the position where it's least important to have top talent. As others have said, it's the defensive equivalent of the running back on offense. I think that's obvious from Beane's presser. He said the other guys on defense will have to pick up the slack. It makes sense schematically: it's the position where the guy can get help from his teammates from any direction. You can't help and edge rusher - if he can't get to the quarterback, it's an advantage to the offense. You can only help the corner back by doubling his man or playing zone, both things being advantages to the offense. The middle linebacker's job gets easier if he has talent all around him, so you can get away with a lesser talent there without hurting your defense as much as having a weak player on the edge. Beane said he want to re-sign Edmunds, but I wouldn't be quick to assume that meant that he any expectation that he would. None of us knows, but I don't think the Bears were the only team who would pay Edmunds more than Beane would. The Bears just happened to offer the most. My guess is that Beane and McDermott decided that they only wanted Edmunds at a relatively lowball price. There was nothing in the short time before Edmunds signed that suggested that Beane offered enough to have even a short negotiation with Edmunds. And I don't think they signed Oliver because they had money from not signing Edmunds. I just don't. Oliver was the 8th best paid DT in the league when he signed, which meant they paid him right about what he's worth. And not signing him would have a left a bigger hole than not signing Edmunds, for the reason stated above. If you have a weak middle linebacker, you can cover for him. If you have a weak 3-tech, there's nothing you can do to help him. Someday we'll know if Beane wanted Campbell. He didn't fall far enough for Beane to be able to trade up for him. I don't think Williams is such a head scratcher, but I do agree about Beane's annual WTF. Great line! When I started this discussion a week or two ago, I said that Beane ALWAYS attempts to fill holes. ALWAYS. I think the only way to explain the fact that for two seasons he got no serious help in the draft and no serious help in free agency is that Beane and McDermott think that lesser talent is enough to fill the perceived hole. And I think running back is the same. Their answer at running back was two third round picks (Motor and Moss), one second round pick who never will be as good as his brother, and some NFL journeymen. It's just not a position the McBeane think they have to spend money on, and middle linebacker is the same.

They saved a lot of salary cap by cutting him. $5.2 million.

Right. Dodson has the physical tools, so he must have struggled with managing the mental challenges of the position. I think that's exactly why Kirksey was brought in Klein has the mental skills, but I assume Kirksey is better physically. That's why Kirksey has been a more consistent starter.

Thanks.

I think that's exactly right. Edmunds wasn't a heat-seeking missile when he joined the Bills, and I think McBeane hoped he would learn to become one. Then they would have had a truly magnificent player in the middle of the defense. I think they now look at the position as you say in the bold sentence.

The only evidence you have that middle linebacker is important to them is that they used draft capital on one five years ago. The evidence I have is that they used no money and no draft capital to replace him. And I have Beane's presser, in which he admits that he spent all the money and draft capital elsewhere, and in which he also admits that they've been intending to have all the players around the middle linebacker pick up whatever talent differential may be in the middle. And I have the fact that they upgraded EVERY position on defense in the past two years, which is exactly the time frame within which they knew they weren't keeping Edmunds. They've signed two bigtime pass rushers, a starting defensive tackle and two backup tackles, re-signed Oliver, used a first-round pick on a corner, re-signed Poyer, and signed a veteran backup safety. In the face of all that, do you really think that middle linebacker is a more important position than any of the other positions? The only evidence you have is they drafted Edmunds. I think it's clear that their view of what they need in the middle has changed.

How do we know he'll get the vet minimum? For example, if he's on the PS and some other team wants to sign him, the Bills can keep him only if they match the offer, right? The offer doesn't have to be vet minimum. For this guy, who's had a significant contract history (which presumably means he's pretty talented), I would expect that he's already negotiated his deal with the Bills for when he's activated, and that there's going to be something more than the vet minimum in it for him. I mean, the guy has a resume that suggests that he has some actual value in the market place. He's been playing on contracts worth $3-4 million a year. He has talent, and except for his injury history, he doesn't look like his career is over. Maybe he's willing to give the Bills a discount because he wants to go to a winner, but I'd expect that when he's activated he'll be someplace over the vet minimum. The entire arrangement already has been negotiated with him. PS is sort of a tryout for him, with both sides expecting that he's going to be elevated soon. There's been a handshake on what the deal will be when he's elevated.

Their thinking about the position has evolved.

He had injury concerns, and he had a relatively big contract that the Texans could unload. I don't really know the guy, but he seems to be better, more experienced talent than I thought the Bills would find available Tuesday at 4 pm. I suspect that really savvy NFL people, like Beane, suspected he'd be available. He had a hammy, saw no preseason action, and Houston didn't seem to be in a hurry to get him back. With his contract, he seemed like a likely cut to people in the know.