Success

Didn't we rush 4 though? That made no sense, at all. KC only had 13 seconds. Getting pressure on Mahomes wasn't the issue in that situation. I thought that was actually the bigger error there. It was a complete lack of situational awareness.

Good analysis, OP - very detailed. There is also the almighty "eye test," which I go by more often than not. And our D fails that, even in the regular season when we're leading in some categories. But definitely in the playoffs, when it seems like our offense just has to keep scoring for us to have a chance. The old adage "defense wins championships" is not a cliche. It's a real thing. There are obviously exceptions, but more often than not, the defense spearheads the big wins in the SB. So what's the scoop? If they were going to move on from Frazier, would they have done so already? Or is there still a chance that they'll make a change there? I would think it would have to be next week at the latest....

I'd love to see it, as long as he's cleared to return. As a player, he got some criticism here - but we missed him when he was out, and he's one of the more physical players we have. Which is something we really need.

It's too early to grade last years draft, imo. I think Elam, Shakir & Cook were all used too sparingly to gauge, and think all of them will be big contributors moving forward. And we have no idea yet what we have w/ Bernard. He wasn't supposed to be a rookie starter.

I'd disagree. They were still going to most of the AFCCG's and some of the SB's in the "off" years. After 2019, they were done being a top team.

1st SB win - 2002. Last SB win - 2019. 17 years.

I like how the NBA does it. I'm for that. I'm tired of the AFC East, personally.

I'll drink too much, eat too much, start whining to whoever is near me that we should be watching the Bills, whine about the halftime show and "what's up w/ kids today," drink some more, and probably pass out before the game ends, mumbling about how this should have been the Bills year. Oh, the score? I dunno. Probably 27 - 24, Chiefs.

This is fantastic. As with anything like this (mostly, mock drafts), it probably won't play out this way specifically - but it shows where & how the team can create a lot of cap space, and how they might prioritize. It's hard to see losing Johnson, though you make a good point on compensation against his position. I could see the other releases happening. The draft priorities you listed are spot on; I wouldn't be surprised if their 1st pick was a WR, but I'd expect center & guard right after that.

I wouldn't even say the jury is out on Elam. That guy can cover receivers. He'll only get better. It wouldn't surprise me if he was our best corner in '23, though I expect Tre to get back to form. I think our secondary in general could be one of the top units in the league. But, I do tend to lean homer. So, there's that.

That Patriots game was extremely healing for me after all of those years. It totally plays into their trust-fund kid fanbase's constant repetition of "they won their Super Bowl" when a team beats them - but I felt as good during and after that game as I think I'd feel if the Bills actually won a SB. It was euphoric. Obviously, winning a SB is a bigger deal on other levels, but for sheer emotion, I don't think that game can be beat.

Some guys need time. He wasn't drafted to be a day 1 starter. I still have hope that he'll grow into a big role on the team. I think in general, the current regime takes their time w/ young players. Elam probably would have started just about every snap for many teams in the league, and I think he will here next year (and be excellent). While a lot of RB's contribute more in their 1st season, they brought Cook along very slowly, and we could see in the last quarter of the season how capable he is. Same w/ Shakir to an extent. If some of the young players can take that next step, we'll be in much better shape next year (obviously).

Every moment in time is just a snapshot. We could hold off on a thread like this until August and it might still be "too early" given how injuries affect the season and how some teams' performances vary wildly from the expectations they had. I like speculation threads such as this one any time throughout the year - we'll have more knowledge after the draft and FA, but we have a general idea of how those will go, and with a draft, no one has any idea what the impact will be until the new players are actually out on the field.

Interesting side note: I checked, and based on current regular season records, all 3 other AFCE teams have a harder 2023 schedule than the Bills (it's close, but we're ranked 4th in SOS).

Remember when we drafted Wood & Levitre back to back? I could see something like that again - though maybe as our 2nd & 3rd picks, w/ WR being our 1st pick.

Really, we could have been undefeated this year. We had close games we won, also - but the Jets, Miami & Vikings losses were all weird games. We had to figure out ways to lose those games. You have to think about the form we were in the 1st couple of months, when we were blowing most teams out of the water. Injuries and challenges all started to pile up - as they do w/ every team, but I think most fans would put the Bills at the top of the adversity rankings for 2022. We're rolling that early season team back for 2023 - likely minus Poyer & Singletary, and possibly Edmunds (though I think they re-sign him). Other teams will improve, but there is no reason we can't have the best record in the AFC if we stay healthy relative to the rest of the conference.

Thank you! I was wading through 8-9 & 10-7 posts, and posters saying that we're stepping back this year. Why would we? Miller will be back for most of the season. Hyde will be back, and we all hope Tre gets back to form. Players like Elam, Shakir & Cook are all poised to take a next step. And with an improved line (it will be), Allen will likely have one of his best years. I'm bullish on '23.

Losing Edmunds would be a gaping hole for our defense right now. We just don't have a bunch of good or great LB's on the roster. Maybe Bernard has more potential than we've seen, but it's a big risk. An argument can be made that Edmunds really sets the tone for the whole D. He'd be a huge loss.

With the draft coming up, I'm also reminded that Belichick almost always ruined draft weekend for Pats fans by trading down, and quite often. He was really the master at amassing draft picks, either through trades or comp picks. The more swings you can take, the more hits you'll get.

I trust Beane to maximize this draft. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we trade down a few times and end up w/ 8 picks total, or something like that. You can get starting O-linemen in the middle rounds. They can probably also get the WR they need in the 2nd.

Shakir for sure. But I'd also keep Beasley. He's such a gamer - he brings a toughness that we need.

2020 was great. I remember feeling so low after the Hail Murray. It felt like a "make or break" moment for the season - and it made it. They just went on a tear after that.

I hope they can have more fun. When we went on that run in '20, the team was having a blast & playing loose. We lost that this year. It was totally gone by the end (for some obvious reasons), but they need to forget about the disappointments and the pressure of "the window," and just play w/ some joy for the game.

That, to me, is the biggest part of their blueprint. We shouldn't try to re-invent the wheel. When you have a top QB, you invest in the line. Allen won't need elite wideouts if he has time in the pocket (not that I don't want elite wideouts, but O-line comes first).

It's possible that we could have our best secondary of the "Allen era" this coming season, even w/ losing Poyer. Tre White was rounding slightly back into form at the end. An offseason & full training camp will hopefully get him back to the player he was before the injury. Meanwhile, Elam was coming on strong, and could take a big 2nd year leap. Johnson in the slot, Hyde back from injury, and hopefully Benford making a successful transition to safety could really turn the secondary into one of the league's best.