Rochesterfan

I honestly do do not think they have a number in mind for passing yards. For the year they pass more than they run by a small margin - they just do not get a ton out of the passing game. When I watch the all-22 you see the windows that open and the multi-layer attack, but you do not see passes into those windows. You see a delay and then you get a sort of continuation and then the pass. It is not all of the time, but enough that it disrupts the passing attack and puts additional pressure on the o-line leading to both sacks and holding penalties. I think when you have TT as a QB - your game plan goes out the window. You have to run a specific sort of free form passing attack (think schoolyard) where guys start on a pattern and then work to get open. If Dennison was a new OC and TT had been spectacular under previous OC’s - I would tend to agree, but this is the 3rd OC all producing exactly the same results with different systems. At some point you may need to think that maybe the results are not from the play call, but the person running the play.

It is all so dumb in the analysis. This is TT 3rd year and he is on the exact same pace as year 1 and year 2. The offense is not holding TT back at all - he is exactly the same QB as the last 2 years - the difference in the Bills offense this year is in the running game which has dropped about 40 yards a game - still in the upper half of the league. I think by the end of the year we will have another top 10 rushing attack (currently 12th, but have been moving up) and a bottom 5 passing attack (currently 30th) - just as we have the last 2 years under TT. So how is this offense holding him back? People blaming the offense or the changes are just arguing semantics at this point - TT is the QB that he has been - his numbers are consistent year to year - bottom tier passing while having a top flight rushing offense. 3 OC have been involved and all 3 have gotten the exact same results - almost nothing out of the passing game and a rushing attack that features 2 threats in McCoy and Taylor. TT will continue to put up what will statistically be another decent year with middle of the pack numbers that work great when things are perfect, but do nothing to help the team win games. He is the ultimate game manager - no turnovers and no chances - just dink and dunk and punt away. One or two drives a game to get scores and we will play a close tight game.

Once again - your entire concept is way way off and you are pushing blame away from TT for some reason. Yes there was a massive discrepancy in passing plays first half to second half, but there was also a massive difference in total plays. First half we ran around 46 plays with about 26 drop backs per your analysis. Just over 50%. Second half we had 9 drop backs on 24 play - with the last 5 plays the Bills either running out the clock or kneeling. Take those away and it is 9 drop backs on about 19 actual snaps or just under 50% of the snaps. The difference was the play in TT in the second half on 3rd down. In the first half he was 6 of 8 passing on 3rd down with several first downs to keep drives going. The second half TT was 1 for 2 with a sack on 3rd down and no first downs. He did not keep drives going and therefore we had fewer overall plays. He had people open - the scheme of Dennison worked, but TT went back into his conservative shell the 2nd half and played poorly when we could of blown out the Chiefs. I think that Dennison may be a bit conservative, but overall TT is exactly the same QB as he has been - the only difference in offense is the running game and it is hard to know how much is Dennison and how much is the combination of O-line changes and play. TT is exactly what he has been and all of your many threads on TT do not change that. He is a below level starter that will not turn the ball over. That is not the worst thing, but if that is the best you can say about your starting QB - you need to be looking for better. TT can win with a strong defense, a strong running game, and good special teams play so that he can move your team and not give the ball back to the opponents. He is not a viable long term option and he is not a high end starter. He will not win you games and he will not lose you games. He is just there as a place holder until someone gets the guts to try and get better.

Wow a really well thought out and reasoned article by MSM (Main Street Media) and one that seems to look at the actual play rather than just stats. I am impressed and think he captures what most of us have been saying. Nice Find

You don’t suppose that is part of the reason they tried to get Hoyer in FA. Hoyer chose SF with a starting gig over competition in Buffalo, but I think the coaching staff recognized that TT might not fit what they wanted. I believe a majority of the change at WR also dealt with getting guys to fit the timing offense. Drafting Zay and trading for Matthews both scream of WCO over Watkins. I think this staff would of loved to keep Woods - another fit, but not at the cost the LARams paid and he wanted to go back to the west coast. Everything this team did during the off season screamed that TT was not their long term solution - he was a safety net until they could get a better fit at the position. I think Dennison has a lot to prove, but McCoy and Musgrave have been busts in Denver taking a guy that Dennison made look decent and turning him into a failure - so I am not sure that had we gotten our top choice things would be better. I will give Dennison the benefit of the doubt and see how the offense looks with a different QB and then judge him as the year concludes.

Correct - he will be released and free to sign with another team at a more appropriate rate.

This is is why I am not sure TT will make a good back-up in this league. Guys coming off the bench may not have worked with these WRs in weeks on some plays, but if you are the back-up you need that Chemistry right away. Peterman has seemed to have good chemistry even in preseason as he moved from 3rd string to 2nd string to taking over with the #1s after TT got hurt. The chemistry seemed pretty good for little practice time, but with TT we keep hearing about needing time and trust to use a WR.

Correct - he would need to be a back-up in a scheme that is not about timing because that is not his strength and he does not seem to get on the same page as his WRs quickly. If you are running a freelance style of offense where the throwing windows are less important, but the WRs keep moving until they find an open area - he may be a better fit. I see a team like Pittsburgh in that regards or even Houston and perhaps GB. Those QBs add lib and buy time and that allows the WRs time to get open - they are not 3 steps and read the defense and make a throw. The other way to make him successful is to draft a rookie with similar skills and to build the offense around what they do well. That is where a mobile strong armed guy like Lamar Jackson could be useful.

No - I think he is done in Buffalo - I do not think as a back-up that would be a good fit here with what they want to do. He he needs to go someplace that is not running a timing based offense - so that his ability to freelance can work. Someplaces that are running more freestyle offenses - Pittsburgh, Seattle, Houston, GB - none are perfect, but because the QBs move in the pocket and keep plays alive - the WRs are used to working themselves open and those spots may work. If not he he could be a bridge if you want to draft a similar style guy and build the team to their strengths.

I think his no turnovers approach as a back-up is great, but it seems to take him a couple of weeks to get in sync with a WR. Matthews come back and he is out of sync - KB comes in and they are not on the same page, but Peterman comes in and seems to be in sync with the WRs from the get go - same with the preseason when TT got hurt.

Racists much?

I disagree about bout him being a good back-up in the league. We keep hearing that TT needs time and trust to work with his receivers - as a back-up you may come in and not have any time with the people on the field. Based upon everything we have seen - he would be a terrible back-up. If you are not starting him - you are going to get very little out of him. He also only fits a few specific schemes - so unless you are Houston with Watson or you draft Lamar Jackson - I think TT will not be great coming off the bench.

Agreed - the offseason and in season moves all pointed to the offense they wanted to run and it all suggested TT was not in the long term plans. Lots of big bodied middle of the field guys - says WCO with timing.

I disagree - he ended up with half way decent stats in the Jets game, but he did not play well. Romo repeatedly talked about what the Bills needed to do do to beat the Jets rushing front - hit your drop and make a decisive throw. There in lies the issue - he could not do that. Once the game got out of reach and the Jets backed off - he started making completions and put up decent numbers. The rest of the team also stunk- which did not help, but the Jets game is part of the reason stats on TT are difficult to assess. He does a lot of things wrong throughout the game - things that drive an OC and HC crazy, but he does not make that key mistake either. I think Jeremy White said it best - if TT is your starting QB you are never going to have the EJ game against the Jags in London or the the Houston game that ended EJs season, but you will not get the big game needed either. You are going to need just about perfection from the rest of the team to consistently win.

AFL - I believe the Bills are looking at long term planning and they are building an offense and although they incorporated some things TT does well - they were not going to sacrifice long term goals for short term wins. If they felt TT was a potential long term answer - an offense designed for him would require very different personnel from a WCO. You need more speed and guys working the sidelines and less guys that work the middle parts of the field. I do not think they are trying to fit a square peg in a round hole - I think they are building the holes for next year and the square peg in TT was left over and they were going to see if it could work. I do not think anyone on this coaching staff felt TT was going to be a long term answer - he was just the best of a bunch of poor options. Honestly - if they had been able to sign Hoyer like they tried - I am not sure TT would have started a game here this year - I think they would of looked to trade him also, but the only back-up was Peterman - so they waited.

I agree reed with this. Sal C. Also stated earlier this week on the Rochester radio scene that his understanding was that Dennison has worked with the team to incorporate several TT specific packages and plays, but that in doing that they needed TT to also work to meet the other requirements of the offense - most decidedly getting the ball out on time. His take on this was that Dennison held up his end of the bargain, but TT was not holding up his side. This went right down to the 4th quarter of the Saints game where they were asking him to open things up and he still couldn’t.

Exactly - Romo repeatedly talked about how to beat the Jets pressure was a quick throw and he praised him the one or two times it worked, but repeatedly showed missed plays also that just need to occur.

I think you have hit the nail on the head. You can get a pretty good idea on a player in 1/2 a season. Not perfect, but an idea. It it also tells you about the OC and if he is a major part of the problem or was it QB limitations. This is something I think they needed to do last year with 4 or 5 games left to better evaluate the team. We saw something similar under Marrone, but in reverse. Benching an ineffective EJ for Orton and although we did not get the desired results - it showed me the offensive struggles of year 1 and early year 2 and the lack of passing was a result of EJ not Hackett. Hackett was average, but you saw a distinct shift in the offense under Orton to more what Hackett wanted to do, but could not with EJ. I think you will get something similar with this move - a better indication of what Dennison would like to do.

Agreed - not only that, but how many times when a team is down Big does the QB throw for for a ton of yards because he is trying everything to move the team. The Bills both last week and this week do not show urgency and do not make many plays. They made the change at QB and got in and out of the huddle faster, threw more, and generally looked like a team making a move. They need more of that late in games when trailing.

I agree - there are some bad things, but it would really make a defense think - especially as they are very different. You would have to be willing to allow TT to throw and run some PA and have to let Peterman roll out, but it could be done. I just think if you are developing a scheme you want to run - get the best guy in there and playing.

I agree and this is part of the issue with TT stats. He would most likely complete the pass because the guys at the 50 both can turn around and come to a dead stop and be open and get no yards after catch. I would expect with Peterman - much like in the preseason and against the Saints - he will make throws into spots that TT will not make with any consistency. This will open up a lot of things, but at the same time - there will be throws like the 3rd down incompletion to KB that went through his hands - that are not the best of choices because a LB or safety dropped their coverage to get in an underneath throwing lane. Those throws become turnovers that we would not see with TT. My complaint about TT is and has been exactly what you said here - hitting the underneath target and not only hitting the underneath target, but hitting them late - so there is no room for the player to make a play. Look at the throws that Robert Woods is seeing in LA and compare those to the throw here with TT. The difference in LA is that Woods is getting the ball on breaks and with a bit of space to make plays and in Buffalo it was turnaround and wait for the throw as you stand there. The other pattern TT is famous for is hitting the WR just before they go out of bounds again no chance for a play by the WR. I think we have had enough talent at WR and TE the last couple of years, but that talent does not show when your QB does not make the plays. It started in game 1 with the Int on the first drive against the NYJs and has been the same throughout - TT is late with throws and misses the windows and has to hold the ball way to long because he missed the initial breaks. He is capable of making plays, but they are delayed plays once everything has settled down and he has time to read and process the field and that is causing issues.

I think you hit hit the nail on the head, but you are just looking at it a bit off kilter. They know what kind of offense they want to run and they know that TT is a 1 year stop gap - so you implement your offense and see who can make plays, but you understand that the plays are not going to be as smooth. You can still evaluate route runners and how they get in and out of breaks based upon film. This has always been a transition year. I think that that they could have done more to implement plays that TT does well, but TT is a unique athlete and therefore anything you create offensively falls apart if you have to switch him out. It would also require a totally different set of WRs -speed guys for the outside and a different blocking scheme. That would then have set the team back next year because they do not have the other parts to run the offense they want - when they get a better more capable QB. TT is a good transition guy and because he makes so very few dangerous throws - he keeps his turnovers low and that is something a defensive HC loves. I think they knew there would be struggles, but just like Rex - they knew if they could get the defense and special teams working - TT would not blow the game. He will not win a game for you, but he will not make the Cutleresque interception at the end of the half that costs your team the game. Only if if that is what they want to do going forward. If as I suspect they are looking long term and TT is not part of that - then they are building for the future QB with a stop gap. They purposefully changed the entire WR Corp out to fit the WCO and are adjusting the blocking to fit what they want to do when they get their QB. Everything this year was trying to win with the players they have while building for the future. That means you are going to have some bad scheme fits, but you are seeing who fits going forward. The scheme may or may not work long term, but they were not trying to build a system to fit TT - they are looking long term and QB can make a huge change to how a scheme runs - just look at the end of the Saints game and how different the offense looked with Peterman.

Incorrect. His first drive had 1 first down and a ball that went through KB hands for a first down and what appeared to be our only audible of the game - stopped on 4th down. The second drive he continued doing the same things as the first drive and his preseason and moved the team to a TD. He had more yards in 1 drive than TT had all game. That includes the end of the 3rd quarter and the 4th where the Saints defense was in the same prevent and TT still could not move the ball.

I think this is correct for most positions - QB is a bit different. The QB is the key to the entire offense and it would set back every other player; OL, RB, WR, TE - if you design an offense around TT, but plan to move on from him. You could get some short term success, but it would impact the long term plans. TT is such a unique player - his offensive design does not fit with anything else other QBs can do - that makes it that much more difficult to design around him. You saw in preseason the difference in the offense when TT was out versus when TT started - the 2 offenses looked very different. If Peterman was ready - I think they make the change - that is what they are looking for in a QB and what the offense is designed for. Again I think it is a long term plan with TT as a place holder while they evaluate what they want as a QB. I think if they could have gotten Hoyer this offseason- that would have been your starting QB with Peterman learning from the journeyman QB rather than TT. This year was about planning and finding fits - everything else was gravy.

The issue is you have new coaches with a long term vision and a QB that is just a stop gap. The Bills had a choice - install an offense that fits TT and try to build that (what the last regime did) or design and offense and decide what kind of QB you need for next year and long term. They are going with the latter - install the offense they want to run long term and see who fits and build from that and find the QB and it is the right call. If the Bills try to build the offense around TT - then you need specific players and if he gets hurt it is nearly impossible to replace his athleticism so you would need to make a change. If you install your system and look to make a change at QB - you are 1 year ahead in terms of guys already knowing what to do. The other thing is Dennison does not nail TT in the pocket - look at how reams are rushing us - send your DE’s up the field to keep TT in the pocket. Roll-outs are no where near as effective if the opposing Defense does not respect what you are doing from the pocket. The Saints DE’ were not rushing the passer as setting the edges to keep TT in the pocket. In the end - Dennison gets some blame, but you need a true QB to run this system and that has never been TT. He makes plays, but if you watch the all 22 or listen to the ex QBs in the booth (or yesterday an ex DB) - they keep repeating the same thing - he has to get the ball out. They showed guys open on the broadcast video, but TT would pull the trigger at the 3 step or 5 step drop. That is on the QB - the offense is designed to get the ball out quick and yet we have the longest snap to throw time in the NFL. That is on your QB.