BullBuchanan

I understand it just fine. I'm using the weighted AV. Using AV of the player's rookie year alone would be a far worse way to judge the performance of a draft. The chiefs would get a 0 for Mahomes in 2017 despite drafting the best QB in 20 years

the wAV of guard John Miller is 31 and the guard Wyatt Teller has a wAV of 29 the wAV of WR Sammy Watkins is 48 and the wAV of WR Justin Jefferson is 39 I'd say the model is flawed to everyone who has ever watched football. Great question. A model needs to start with questions, and you asked some good ones while calculating your formula but you need to backtest it to be sure that it gives accurate results. The more accurate you try to be, the less reliable it's likely to be, so you need a reliable grade of performance first and foremost. There are multiple other problems that need to be solved for. An example of some: If you're weighting against draft position, you need to consider the difference of value between pick value within a round as the #1 overall pick is much different than the #32 pick and they don't average out over time since it's based on performance, not chance. You should really be grading performance against that position int he draft, but statistical significance will be impossible to obtain since there haven't been enough #1 picks, and you'd have to grade performance for all players ever at that slot, and there may be position bias. If you're grading performance, you need to make sure you're grading performance against games played, expected games played and role. If you drafted Breece Hall and he was an all pro for half the season and then went down due to injury, you need to be careful about how that compares to a guy that played all 16 games but was less impressive. Likewise if a DB was drafted in the 6th round but was a standout special teamer, you need to ensure he ranks comparably against a player who played a lot more downs in a DB role but didn't perform well.

no, I read it. Your model is flawed because it's based on a known bad value. This doesn't work. It's definitely an admirable attempt, but the underlying data isn't any good.| "What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class. TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class."

Yes, but you understand that are an infinite number of ways you could try to evaluate success and it doesn't mean that any of those models have to accurately do so, right? This model ranks Wyatt Teller as a 5th round pick that has 2 2nd team all pros and 2 pro bowls as a 29 which is equal to how they rank Ed Oliver as a 9th overall pick. Cody Ford is a 15 and Dawson Knox is a 16... John Miller (remember him?) is a 31. If that doesn't make you reconsider treating this in a HIGHLY skeptical manner, I can't help you.

it says they grade poorly on a model. You can't use a single model to determine truth. They are inputs from which insights must be gleaned. They don't tell you how to interpret the data or whether the data is valid. You could create a model of career earnings of people based on their favorite color and find a runaway with people who loved orange and found that those who liked green earned the least. That wouldn't mean it was a reliable predictor of anything.

What's wrong with it, is they weren't very good at all. They ranked highly in this model, which is great but not sure that correlates to successful drafts. Take out 2017 because that was Whaley's draft, and the results are not in the Bills' favor at all. Looking at 1st-3rd round picks across each draft of the last 5 years is pretty disappointing. I think what's skewing this is the Bills starting players that shouldn't be starting.

If this model suggests that the Bills are the best team in the league at drafting, I might suggest the model doesn't have much value. In 5 years we've drafted 2 great players and a handful of good ones.

The greatest coach of all-time and the greatest QB of all-time. It's not that complicated and it's unlikely to ever happen again. If Andy Reid was 20 years younger maybe.

Have you heard of Drew Bledsoe? Allen is still chasing that fella.

He did tie Ja'marr Chase though, so there's that.

Dorsey is less of a concern because he's young and just had his first year. Leslie's been coaching for 35 years and for at least the last 15 his defense has been what it is today. get used to more of the same. It's not just Frazier though, even if he is a massive part of it. I've been convinced that this team won't win a championship under McDermott unless it's just flat out gifted to us through upsets/injuries to the best teams in the league. He's a nice guy who creates a culture of nice guys and they'll have the kind of success that nice guys get, while the teams that go hard take eat their lunch year after year. We're Marty Schottenheimer's Chargers with less talent..

Don't worry, we traded Mahomes for Tre White(with his new knee upgrade he should be better than ever!), Dion Dawkins (Leader of a great O-Line), Zay Jones (a great #2 WR for the Jags), Siran Neal (you literally can't have enough special teams aces), and Tremaine Edmunds (can you believe he's still only 17?).

You know those teams never actually "broke through" right? They lost and in doing so became a perennial laughing stock. We look back fondly at those times because it's our only option - but let's pray to any gods that will have us that our current team is nothing like them.

If the Bills are in the Super Bowl, I'd rather watch the game on TV than be at the game. The TV feed is a better spectator experience most of the time for me.

Because Sean McDermott didn't have a team of scouts analyzing players for the Buffalo Bills while he was the defensive coordinator of the Bills. he was hired 3 months before the draft. The board was probably 95% done by then. Also, the draft had Whaley's DNA all over it.

Whaley drafted both White and Milano.

No, you're the only that's trying to excuse the awful preparation on the part of the coaching staff that decided not to expose the Bengals biggest weakness (oline) like KC did and instead decided to give receivers a 10-15 yard cushion all game because of a littany of unrelated reasons of things that happened int he WNY area that were almost 100% unrelated to Bills players with the exception of player-specific issues that wouldn't impact anyone else (Knox, Hyde, Miller) and the Hamlin issue. Everything else in your list is irrelevant. They are things that happened int he past that were long since over by the time the game rolled around and had 0% to do with the outcome. Those reasons don't explain or excuse the defensive or offensive strategy, the game time decision making, the lack of effort, or the lack of execution. I understand since you started the thread, it would be convenient for you if they did, but I've seen no argument that supports that claim. Really since the Green Bay game. The Chiefs game to me was the last time we played like a team that should win the Super Bowl - like the Eagles are still playing now.

it's not about it happening again, it's if his body was damaged to the point that he can no longer be an elite athlete. He's still on oxygen. The road fromt hat to peak cardiovascular health seems long. We don't even know at this point if he'll be on oxygen forever.

So you're saying that the whole of western NY was going to work everyday with a shooting that happened 8 months ago or their Boss' wife's health, or the death of a coworkers brother 4+ months ago just eating at their mind and reducing their competency to the point of gross incompetence? ridiculous.

I can't possibly think of anything that had less to do with the Bills than this. It's disgusting to co-opt a tragedy on their behalf that happened nearly half a year before the season even started. Stop it. Kim Pegula's mystery illness is also preposterous. Any team that ever lost a starting QB to injury went through more than what Buffalo did when it comes to being an actual football team. What you wrote is just a lit of nonsense that has nothing to do with how a team should perform on Sundays and how coaches should prepare during the week. I wonder how many Buffalo workers got to wipe away their negative performance reviews because it snowed a lot. What a pathetic list of excuses for why DBs were playing 15 yards off their man on 3rd and 4 and why Josh Allen was bombing it deep on 3rd and 2.

Simply put, Oliver is a massive disappointment based on his draft position and expectation. He's at best a borderline #2 DT and ideally he'd be a #3. I wouldn't paya penny over $3M a year for his production.

Probably not, but even if he does come back, he is a backup-tier player.

The Bills red helmet is up there with the all-time worst helmets in the super bowl era.

AI has much better composition.

The last two have - Kyle Pitts and TJ Hokenson. The 3rd is playing in the AFC championship as Cincinnati's TE #1. Noah Fant is the 4th and while not a star to date has been a reliable option. From 2017 OJ Howard was a bust, Evan Engram just finished a career year and will be a major FA target most likely, and David Njoku finished 9th in yards for TEs despite being hampered by injury. You have pretty high odds of getting a quality TE in round 1 Pettigrew and Keller suffered serious injuries that ended their careers early. Olson was a star before them. vernon Davis and Marcedes Lewis (still in the league) before him. Heath Miller was a stud. Kellen Winslow flamed out in 04 not for a lack of ability and Dallas Clark was a HOF Caliber TE in 03. So in the last 20 years - you had 2 busts, 2 couple players whose career was cut short by injury, a couple solid players and a handful of superstars. There might not be a safer position to draft in the first round based on that. http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te