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BullBuchanan

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Everything posted by BullBuchanan

  1. He's made $233k per tackle over the course of his career. Not a bad way to earn a living.
  2. No, no they won't. Did you forget about Toronto which is bigger, more affluent, and more sports inclined than LA? As long as the team keeps winning, they won't have any problem selling out. It will just be different people in the stands.
  3. They wouldn't, and NFL owners don't want those people. They drive down the perceived value of the brand. There's a reason they reduced capacity in the new stadium. The NFL wants to create an exclusive atmosphere - not an accessible one. The poors can watch on TV while the affluent get VIP meet & greets with TSwift next year.
  4. I'm only trading a 1st round pick to get MHJ. Anythign else is a waste. History has shown you can get the same caliber of WR from the mid-late first, all the way to the early 3rd round.
  5. There have been brief glimpses of it. A couple of years ago there was a period where he was throwing dimes on his deep balls and hitting players in stride down the field. I thought he has finally turned a corner there but it didn't last. This year there were so many wasted big plays where he didn't hit a wide open target or when he did they had to slow down or speed up which prevented a touchdown. I was also encouraged by what I saw of Dorsey reigning him in early this year. You could tell Josh was struggling with it, which I think was good. It got him out of his comfort zone of playing hero ball. He was taking the checkdowns and it was working. What also worked really well, and honestly what always has, is the hurry up. Josh tends to play his best in a 4 minute offense and I chalk that up to him not having to/not being able to think so much about what he's doing. He zips through his reads and fires. When he doesn't have as much pressure, he processes too slowly and incorrectly. My hope with what Dorsey was doing was that we could turn him into early years Brady or late years Manning and Elway where we don't ask him to do too much, and then he just makes the one or two big plays when he has to. I think he has that capability and he'd absolutely win a Super Bowl playing that way. Peyton Manning lost a lot of playoff games trying to be the hero, and I thought maybe McD would have learned from that, but it appears he was only willing to give an alternate approach a handful of games. Allen isn't gonna do it on his own.
  6. He's busting his ass working on his short game. Never too early to prepare for next February.
  7. I think it was the best offensive line we've had in a very long time time, yes. I also think that in a salary cap world, it's about as good as you can hope a line to be unless you have multiple all-pros on rookie deals elsewhere on your roster so you can pay a group like Dallas did - which didn't help them btw.
  8. Why do so many people get this completely wrong? The strategy hasn't failed, the execution has. They've drafted and acquired underperforming players. It's not liek they're getting to Mahomes and still losing because of other reasons. Their lack of being able to do that one thing is what's causing them to lose. They built a great offensive line this past year, and while it certainly helped in the regular season, it really didn't seem to matter very much at the end of the day, because you're only as good as you're weakest link, and against KC that weak link has been defense for 4 years running. +1
  9. We've tried that. Even when we play perfect it doesn't work. Against us, Kelce is always open and Mahomes has as much time as he wants when we play him. You can't beat a team that always scores when they need to. Lots of teams have gotten to Mahomes. He was pressured a lot more than Allen this year. jacksonville, Miami, Buffalo (reg season), LV and NE all had double digit pressures on him. In games where he was sacked 3+ times he went 1-3 and if NE had a QB maybe it's 0-4. The key to beating KC in the playoffs is holding them to 24 points. Something we cant seem to do when it matters. I have no doubt Allen can score 24+ points with the weapons we have. He doesn't get to stop Mahomes himself though.
  10. I still expect us to win 10+ games and maybe even win the division again. I'll still be happy when we win, but I'll be less excited in general, much like I was this year. I'll basically be watching the games to enjoy the future potential of our young players instead of lying to myself about thinking we're a contender. I've kinda stopped caring about the results of games before December. I like watching to see if we do interesting things from a gameplan perspective that could help us in Jan/Feb, but over the last few years, we haven't had much of that.
  11. 100%. If you can't get to mahomes, you can't beat Mahomes. Without a significant upgrade on our front 4, I'm writing off the season as a growing/rebuilding year. It doesn't need to be an edge if we can get the production from DT, but we need to get to the QB with 4 rushers.
  12. To further back up my point, here are all the points teams allowed KC to score in games they lost over the last 3 years including playoffs 2023: 20 9 17 17 14 2022: 17 20 24 2021: 24 35 24 20 3 31 The bills have beaten KC all three years in the regular season by holding them to 17, 20 and 20 points. They've lost twice in the playoffs giving up 27 and 42 respectively. KC hasn't lost a game where they've scored more than 24 points since 2021. That's how Cincinnati got to the Super Bowl. They didn't do it by dropping 40 on them.
  13. The "facts" you are using don't support your argument. That's the problem. You're trying to say that because they invested in players, that should prove that the strategy is flawed. No one is denying that they've made investments. How many of those players have been playing like all-pros? How many of those players make huge plays that one time you need them to int he playoffs? Certainly not enough of them and I'd argue none of them. Looking at their top 100 picks over the last few years, you'll find few players who are game changers. 2023: Dorian Williams (non-factor thus far) 2022: Kaiir Elam (Bust) Terell Bernard (looks good year 2 but too early to say if he'll be a playoff factor due to injury) 2021: Greg Rousseau (non-impact starter) Boogie Basham (Bust) 2020: AJ Epenesa (terrible for two seasons and then good not great for two. Rotational player) 2019: Ed Oliver (Underachieved most of his career until 2022 season. Non-factor against KC) Notable Recent Free Agent signings/Trades Rasul Douglas (Looked like a beast until the KC game, but was injured and clearly hampered) Von Miller (has been ineffeective/unavailable the last year and a half since injury) Leonard Floyd (Early season beast with 10.5 sacks but only 1 in his final 8 games. Non factor in the playoffs) We Don't have a Chris Jones, Lararius Sneed, or even a George Karlaftis on this team that are there to make the play you need to have. With a healthy Douglas and Milano maybe we aren't that far away but we probably still need a game-wrecker that's better than all of them if you ever hope to stop Mahomes when it matters. The investments that they've made on offense to surround Allen have borne far more fruit: Diggs (top 10+ player every year of his buffalo career. Top 5 prior to this season) Cook (Top 10 weapon out of the backfield) Kincaid (could be a top 5 TE by the end of next season) Gabe Davis (limited player with inconsistencies but still put up big numbers. We needed to upgrade here and we already have) Khalil Shakir (Sophmore season would have been called a breakout if he had more targets. On Affense you have 3 legitimate game breakers in Allen, Diggs, and Cook with Kincaid a high chance to be a 4th and Shakir possibly a step below that. I don't know what you want. I won't turn my nose up at one more weapon, but realistically that's all there's room for there. On defense we can can conceivably upgrade at nearly every position. Now they probably won't try to go and get a Chris Jones or a Fred Warner, or even a Lajarius Sneed, but all of those guys would make our team better than they are right now in a possibly meaningful way. If you can find one guy in the draft that can shut down Kelce, maybe that's all that's missing. If you can find one DL that can bring the extra juice to force Mahomes into a bad decision on 3rd down, maybe that's enough. If you're resigning yourself to "well mahomes is always going to score", then you're already resigning yourself to losing, because Allen isn't that level that's going to score every single time either. He can do it once in a while, like we saw in 13 seconds, and then we still lose because our defense can't stop Mahomes. The math on that looks terrible. KC wins every time Josh doesn't go perfect and they also win every time Josh does go perfect but KC goes last. I already made the point earlier that you casually ignored, but no amount of open receivers against KC completes the 3rd down pass that Josh didn't make that ended the game for us. Even bigger than that, is no amount of WR help there would prevent Mahomes from marching down the field and scoring again (as you are agreeing with me here that he would do) had Josh completed that pass. The right play there was throwing to a wide open Diggs for a first down, running out the clock and scoring without giving KC a chance to win. But that's not how we roll, and until we do, expect the same results.
  14. That's not the argument I'm making and you know it. It's obvious they've invested heavily in defense in the draft. The difference is they've had more success with their investments on offense. They haven't been able to find those difference makers on defense. Von was supposed to be that guy. Douglas looks like that guy, and hopefully Milano can play a game in January sometime, but that's still not enough. Don't move the goalposts.
  15. I don't understand how you can make this argument based on past results. Trying to outscore KC when your defense lets them score at every critical juncture results in a best case scenario of 13 seconds. We've already tried the strategy you're recommending and it's repeatedly failed. We went out and got Diggs, a legit Top 5 receiver. We went out and got Kincaid, a top 2 TE in his class. We got a pass catching home run hitter in James cook. We've made numerous investments in the draft and FA in skill position players to play various roles all with the aim of having a juggernaut offense and we've built one. Yet, the results are, at best, the same as they were before. One could even argue we've regressed the last 2 seasons. You can add prime Jerry Rice to this stable and Josh still isn't beating Mahomes & Kelce. They are the problem, not KC's defense. Diggs was open for the first down against KC. Shakir was open for the touchdown. Josh didn't get it done. Having one more WR open on that play doesn't yield a completion. You want to make the argument that Dawkins let us down? Well they just signed him to an extension, so that isn't changing. You've only got two options. Either Josh makes every single critical pass you need him to make(something he has not shown to be common), or you get players on defense that can stop Mahomes from making every critical pass that he has proven he will make. For me it's an easy decision. 33 points a game is not acceptable to me, and it's the reason we're losing imo.
  16. Building a Super Bowl Champion by building a roster designed a shootout offense hasn't really been very successful. New England's best offensive season, their perfect season ended in disappointment, as did Denver's under Manning. The Saints' entire philosophy under Sean Payton was outscore the other team and it worked once when it was new. It hasn't worked for the Dolphins. It hasn't worked for us when we've tried it in the past either. You need to get elite play from every facet of the game. KC's dynasty runs through Mahomes, but they get big time plays from their defense when it matters. We get strong aggregate performances during the regular season and then our guys disappear when the lights shine brightest. We need dominating players to turn the tide of the game, especially with a mediocre coaching staff like McDermott and his boys. We need guys like Milano, Miller, Oliver, Douglas and guys who aren't on the roster to be playing the best football of their lives in February if we want any chance. In my mind, the key there is the guys we're missing. Someone in the mold of a Ed Reed, Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, Micah Parsons that can be used in multiple different ways gives you more chances where a team can make just one play that wins the game for you. Hell, I'd take Minkah Fitzpatrick.
  17. Why would Diggs not get 160 again? He was 6th in the league in targets. Since joining Buffalo he has had: 160 154 164 166 How can you possible imagine that he'll get a 20% target reduction when he's still one of the best receivers in the game and we do not have anyone near his caliber to take them? Additionally, you're projecting Samuel to a 42% reduction in targets based off his standard and also anticipating he get s acareer high in carries with 55 when his best season was 41, 4 seasons ago when he was 23 years old. Last year he had 7 carries. 4 of his 7 seasons he's had 8 or less rushing attempts. Maybe we use him in that capacity more towards the higher end, but setting a career high 30% over his best in attempts? That requires a massive leap of faith that I just can't make. To that end I see no reason that Diggs will lose a massive amount of his targets and I don't see any reason why samuel either. I'm going to assume they both get their recent averages of 160 and 90 respectively. I'll use your assumption of 160 targets and leave everyone else estimate alone. That leaves 40 targets for our rookie WR which is on par with what Shakir had last season. I think that's more than generous given the players currently on the roster. Maybe they'll even get 45.
  18. They just signed Curtis Samuel to be our #2. They aren't paying him 7M/15 guaranteed to be our #4. It's wild to me that so many folks advocate takings WRs high and then use examples of WRs that were drafted in later rounds as examples of how much production they can have. Tank Dell, taken in the 3rd Nacua, drafted in the 5th WRs are a crap shoot. in 2023 they mostly had decent production, but you're taking 45-60ish receptions. On this team that would put them 3rd-5th depending on how much target share they get and how much target share our own growing stars like Kincaid, Shakir and Cook utilize. Teams like Baltimore and Minnesota (Post Jefferson injury) had pretty much bare cupboards so it makes sense that a rookie who performed well would get as many targets as they could handle. In Seattle, they had a gap at #3 and Smith-Njigba (1.20) filled it with 63 receptions on 93 targets In LAC, Quentin Johnson went one pick later (1.21) but only mustered 38/67 Zay Flowers (1.22) went 77/108 as the only receiving threat on the team much of the season Jordan Addision (1.23), Jayden Reed(2.19), Rashee Rice(2.24), Tank Dell (3.06), Josh Downs (3.16) all provided similar value to Flowers. Nacua (5.42) was best in class. Most of the rest of the class fared far worse. For context, the Bills had: Diggs: 107/160 Kincaid: 73/91 Davis: 45/81 Cook: 44/54 Shakir: 39/45 Samuel went 62/91 last year. Expect him to do more with a similar or less target share than Davis had. Expect Shakir to get at least 20, if not more targets) Who are you taking targets from to feed to a rookie? The argument has to be that you're taking them from Samuel, but that argument doesn't make any sense at all given what they just ponied up to go get him in the first place. More realistically I expect a rookie to best case scenario see 40-50 targets int his offense by taking a few from Diggs and getting more kicks at the can due to increased offensive efficiency. Kincaid got 80 because there were 80 there to be had. Once Knox went down, he stepped into a full time starting role and made the most of the opportunity. For a rookie WR drafted this year, you'd have to have a major injury to Diggs or Samuel imo, and even then, I'd expect Shakir to see most of the benefit.
  19. I don't really see us getting over the hump by getting Josh more weapons when he doesn't maximize the value of the ones he already has. Of course it's never a bad thing to have more weapons on offense, but we already know winning shootouts isn't the way to win Super Bowls. If you can't stop Mahomes, you won't win. Our weapons gave us every opportunity to win last season as they did in the 13 seconds game, and yet we still lost. Going into next year with Cook, Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir should be enough to get the job done for top end talent with Samuel, Johnson and whatever rookies they bring in as reserves. Realistically, any rookie they bring in is likely to be no better than the 5th ( or even 6th) most used weapon in the passing game in 2024 or even 2025. There's an outside chance of it sure, but it's not likely unless there are injuries.
  20. Not really. Davis is a one-trick pony that can only effectively run deep. He may be better at that one trick, but I don't think it will lead to more production. Samuel runs far more routes than Gabe does at a high level, and I see him being more productive in this offense from game to game with a lower ceiling in any given game. Shakir on the other hand gives us that high ceiling. He's an explosive player that could definitely have monster games.
  21. Ok. So you do that so now your WR5 is locked up, but who are you starting at Free Safety? The 4th round rookie you drafted instead of prioritizing your needs? Who is your first CB in when Benford or Douglas get a breather or get banged up? Cam Lewis? I just don't see it as a high priority need at all. You can get productive WRs on the street.
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