oldmanfan

I agree he had a problem with the deep ball this year. Something he definitely needs to work on. And one play can in fact make a difference in a game. But not in statistical analysis, especially when trying to parse a 1.2% difference. A single play is a single play and you can’t prove anything statistically with an N=1 sample size. Tell the people that obsess over a 60% completion rate.

To quote a famous poster around here, you’re an idiot. Again for I think the fifth time now, Allen had a 58.8% completion rate. The difference between that and 60% given the number of passes he threw? Four. Four out over over 400. I showed you the power analysis; you’d have to have over 35000 throws to make that meaningful. Those four throws could have been 4 bad throws, 4 dropped balls, 4 throwaways, 4 gusts of wind. Whatever. It is time to drop this obsession over a 60% completion rate when it is no different than 58.8%. But you either aren’t smart enough to understand that or simply refuse to recognize simple math because it violates your bias against the kid.

I'm not rejecting it, I'm saying without my knowing what the variables are and how they are weighted it's difficult for me to determine the validity of this particular measure. And it would appear I'm not alone from the article you posted. I review a lot of medical and scientific manuscripts submitted for publication and the primary reason they get rejected is because of improper study design and statistics. This thread is about completion percentage, and just in that alone there are a number of variables to consider. Is QB one of them? Absolutely. I have said more times than I can count since the end of the season that Allen needs to continue improving. I think there are two primary things that affect his completion rate. One is that he does not read defenses all that well yet, and as a result sometimes he throws too quickly off a bad platform or sometimes he doesn't make the correct read and take an easier throw over a harder one. That's on him. The second is on his WRs/TEs making catches and on the OC setting up plays where he has receivers open. Those can each be improved on as well. What I do know is that the continual moaning about a 60% pass completion rate being all on Allen, or in some way a testimony to inaccuracy is wrong. Accuracy does not equal completion percentage. I showed the math above where the difference between 58.8% and 60% completion rate is 4 passes over his past season. I just did a quick power analysis to see what the sample size would be to say that 58.8% is truly different than 60%, and you'd need over 35,000 passes to make that meaningful. Again Allen needs to continue improvement. But there's a lot of different things that go into that, some under his control and some not. I just think people need to quit attaching themselves to one number like a 60% completion rate or a 300 yard passing game (when it has been show repeatedly here that 300 yard passers have an equal chance of winning or losing games) as if it definitively means anything. it doesn't. it's a lot more complex.

A quick read of the link you sent indicates there are flaws in the proprietary QBR rating ESPN uses, including the fact that no one really know what they put into their formula. So you're proving my point. Moreover, the thread is discussing completion percentage, not QBR, and as I have pointed out several times now the criticism of Allen that he doesn't have a 60% completion rate comes down to 4 passes over the past season. Statistically invalid and could have been caused by bad throws, drops, whatever. Allen needs to continue to improve. I have said that repeatedly. But this obsession over completion percentage, especially as some sign of accuracy as so many want to do despite it having been debunked repeatedly, is to the point of absurdity.

Really? Which ones, how are they weighted, and so on?

Good points. Statisticians use a term called multivariate analysis, in which multiple variables have to be accounted for in order to arrive at a statistically valid conclusion. Football is inherently multi variant. The ability of the QB, pass protection, quality of receivers, quality of opposing defense, availability of a running game to complement the offense, weather. All are examples of independent variables that can alter the value of a single parameter. Such as completion percentage.

I see your point. He needs to get rid of clunkers like most young QBs do. I just think it comes down to him getting more experience. The game slowed down more for him this past season, it should slow down more next season. He should make quicker decisions with the ball, check down more when needed, etc.

And?? Yes, 0.25 throws a game mean nothing. And has been shown repeatedly 300 yard passing games don’t predict wins. Allen just finished his second year. He did appreciably better year 2 than year1. He needs to continue improving. I and most others say that repeatedly. So stop with the contrarian nonsense . He needs to continue improving on presnap reads, processing things quicker, etc. More experience should help.

All this angst over 0.25 throws a game. But we know what will happen here. As soon as he has a 60% completion rate the nay sayers will say that’s not good enough and the real landmark is 62%.

That’s different than using the mythical 60% to define accuracy.

But you have no idea what he’ll become after only two years in the league. Look at Brees as a classic example of a guy who improved. Or many others.

I agree on this.

Why? Because you are not Nostradamus.

Why assume he can’t get better? Completion percentage is overblown nonsense with respect to accuracy and this has been pointed out time and time again. Throw a bunch of short dump offs and your completion percentage increases. I refer you to the math I did above. People obsess over this 60% completion rate as if it means something. For Allen this past season that came down to a difference of 0.25 passes per game, or 4 on the season. It’s ridiculous to think that can’t be attained.

Why make an assumption like this?

If we assume that 60% is the magic, holy grail of completion percentage that Allen must hit, here’s some math: Number of attempts: 461 Number of completions: 271 Number if additional completions needed for 60%: 4 (rounds off to 60%) So this entire obsession with his completion percentage comes down to 4 plays over the season. So 4 better passes, 4 less drops, 4 less throwaways. However, this angst comes down to 4 plays, or 0.25 plays a game. Just food for thought.

It’ll take several failed attempts first but he’ll get in. Maybe his last year of eligibility before he’d go to the veteran’s committee.

Jumping on a dead man’s grave is never a good idea. Ralph had his share of faults but Buffalo is a major league city because of him, he had lasting impact on the league as supported by him being in the HOF, and his charitable contributions to many in WNY are a fitting legacy. But as to the Mad Bomber, I used to go to Cardinal O’Hara with my dad every year to watch the Bills off-season basketball team play the faculty in a charity game. My dad reffed the games each year, so I would get to hang out in the locker room with the players. Lamonica was a really nice guy, easy for a little kid to talk to as were most all the guys. That trade was a nightmare.

Bill’s doing a bang up job.

You are not making any sense whatsoever. It has nothing to do with picking or not picking one player in one draft.

You’re stuck on this all time stuff as if it means anything. It means nothing. Nothing whatsoever. We can go back to Brady and Montana too and it again means nothing about Mahomes. This is all just hindsight garbage. Again if NFL teams had crystal balls and could have seen Mahomes would be this good they would have all tried to get the # 1 pick that draft. No one envisioned him playing at this level.

Liking him has nothing to do with predicting he would be as good as he is right now. You’ve missed the point. If teams really thought predraft he would be what he is today, teams would have done whatever to move up to the # 1 pick. But they didn’t. See above.

Mahomes is a great QB. No one pre-draft predicted he would be this good. No one. Anyone saying so is simply not telling the truth. I wanted Watson. Was sad we didn’t take him. But so what? Now we have Allen and I like what I see so far. Playing these hindsight what if games is pointless.

Running from it? The next year they drafted the QB they feel leads them to championships.

Hindsight is 20/20. There were plenty of concerns about Mahomes’ ability to adapt to the NFL. Credit to him for becoming as great as he is now.