GoBills808

Yes, these questions are supposedly answered by the Nextgen stats...which was kind of the point of the exercise. If the plays above are the 8 times all year he faced an 8man front, he was actually more effective against it than his average attempt. If they're not, then ESPN's calculating their 8man box very differently than what that defense looks like traditionally. As it stands, I see little evidence suggesting either is incorrect.

Of course, which is why I specifically chose 8 plays: that's the amount that (according to NextGen stats) he faced an 8 man front all season ESPECIALLY true against a run heavy team like the Bills

gained 7 yards on this play and finally cause my computer didn't like all these photos- gained 15 yards on the ground ...to recap- these are 8 examples of Singletary rushing against an 8 man box. Theoretically (according to NextGen stats) this is all the rushes he had vs such fronts. Except I know that can't be the case since his YPA on these rushes was a sterling 13.25 and according to the aforementioned posters his YPA was inflated by the lack of facing 8 men in the box. From this we can surmise A- NextGen stats and I have a different definition of 8men in the box (totally possible- as we know the nextgen stats are computed via chip in players helmets/pads so they may not set off close enough to LOS, but cmon...these are definitely 8 man fronts by any stretch, majority run downs as well) as well as B- they might have calculated Singletary's 5.3% vs 8men in the box very low (because these are simply from his highlight reel as referenced above, I don't have the energy to go through every single snap) ie calculated it incorrectly and finally C-unless he lost a TON of yards on a BUNCH of other attempts vs 8man fronts (possible but imo wildly unlikely enough to bring down a 13.25 ypa) then the idea that his overall YPA was inflated due to facing an inordinately small percentage of 8 man fronts is simply incorrect.

this one went for 14 gained 16 yards on this play he ran for 9 yards here

Recently @thebandit27 @Blokestradamus and I had a discussion about Singletary's sparkling 5.1 yards per carry (good for 4th in the league for qualifying RBs). The point of contention was that his average was inflated due to seeing a very low amount of 8man boxes, as illustrated by the NFL's NextGen stats ranking him dead last among RBs facing such defenses at a rate of only 5.3% of his total carries. For reference, Tevin Coleman faced the highest amount of 8man at 40.15% of his rushes. That is a large discrepancy. Singletary had 151 total attempts last season, and some quick math says he only faced what NextGen refers to as an '8 man box' eight times throughout the season. If true, that could explain his high YPA...he was getting carries vs nickel and taking advantage of some good playcalling from Daboll. Not having anything better to do I pulled up his highlight reel (more on this later) to see what it showed. Examples below- ...one of his first carries against the Jets, went for 21 yards. another carry against the Jets, this one went for 13. gained 14 yards here more to follow

'And with the 11th pick of the 2020 NFL draft, the NY Jets select-'

doesn't he know this is how you're supposed to do it

delicious

I’d feel ***** great

I think you can make the argument it's not any harder getting a sack for a safety than it would be in other short-yardage type downs.

Again I find that without supporting data this is simply anecdotal

Good point I'll go get him and a case of beer for good measure

We have a wholly unreliable group of TEs so I would bring him in if reasonable

This is why IMO the idea is incomplete without corresponding stats on # of plays run inside the 3/safety %...instead of just saying 'safeties are way more rare than touchdowns on a per snap basis'

Yes I agree, but it goes to my point that it's only a safety because those plays happen to occur in a very specific part of the field. It requires no greater effort than a normal sack or TFL which I think we all agree shouldn't be worth any point or fraction thereof.

It's only rare by design. Again, I doubt it's that rare when you adjust for percentage of plays run from the offense's 3>...which imo is the better way of looking at it You are also leaving out the offensive penalty in end zone...you really want 11 points awarded to the other team because of a holding call or intentional grounding? It's more the product of good special teams play. I don't consider a tackle for loss or sack the product of elite-level defense, nor an offensive penalty in the end zone. I find it hard to reconcile your disdain for a 3 point field goal on special teams with your enthusiasm for an 11 point safety, which is by and large almost always the product of good punt coverage...on special teams.

...I mean if people really want to get into scoring the minutiae we already have fantasy football.

500 minimum

Yes exactly not to mention he wasn't that good at it last season...albeit probably because of injury Just needs lateral quickness (which Milano has), ability to initial cover 1v1 RBs primarily sometimes slot/TE and widen into slot (which Milano can do decently), and read/force run weakside to proper gap inside (which he was terrible at last year)...it's not nearly as big a position responsibility wise in this defense imo

Should touchdowns from the 20 be worth more than touchdowns from the 5?

That is not at all what I saw last season. He was very good and one of the reasons I feel confident he will be locked up long term asap

True but those Panthers defenses didn't have anything close to a safety tandem like Hyde/Poyer, they needed to be exceptional through the middle.

My point was when you look at the specific circumstances that must occur by rule for a safety to be possible, they probably aren't as rare as they seem.

I'm hoping Milano is the guy that he showed pre-injury and gets back to form...could be the Thomas David to Edmunds' Kuechly. Unfortunately as of right now he is the most replaceable as you say