YattaOkasan

Probably should add CB3 and WR3 too considering how much time we spend in nickel. Maybe TE2? Thanks.

Amazes me that a NFL reporter wouldnt know this

Ugghh... We do not need 10 mil for the rooks. We need like 6. Rule of 51/53 says its only the difference in salaries essentially. The rooks will account for 10 mil of cap but we do not need 10 mil to sign them cause we already have players signed that will get bumped off.

Yes camp fodder but fodder that counts agains the cap. So the the cap hit for each player is 500k less than this number. But yes this is what the rooks make

Yeah but they bump out two players from top 51. That makes the first rounders more like 3.5 mill right? Later rounds are not expensive at all. Over the cap has you 10 mil number but that just adds the cost of all the picks. I don’t think it considers the top 51. Is @BarleyNY around to give his thoughts on the cap cost of the draft? I remember him having good insight last year.

The rookie pool doesn’t need to be 10 mil does it? It’s gonna cost 10 mil probably but because of the rule of 51 it should only cost about 5 mil from what I’ve seen elsewhere

Ahh instead of trading for foles can A have use cap space on vet FA. I think this trade will end up being ~10 mil in cap + TT + 1st round + 2nd round = Bridgewater/McCarron/Bradford + Mayfield/Jackson/Rudolph + High 3rd round. We won't have a ton of cap space after the vet but we have signed at least CB3, RB2, & DE4 pre-FA, have a bunch of picks, and look to be playing the comp pick game. The only thing missing in this FA period is a DT (we gonna get 1 in the draft anyway)?

I always liked john miller but hes been average at best (2nd year), and we are sorta in desperate interior line play. Wood retired and Richie doesn't have much past this contract. I don't want to stake my future on Vlad (ugh), Groy (admirable), Miller (so far average at best).

So you didn't watch the video then. Its been stated there and elsewhere that the Jackson has the most relevant experience to NFL offenses. He has been asked to read defenses and has demonstrated an ability to work his way through progressions (check out the cover1 article). He needs to work on his deep ball accuracy but checks most every other box.

Yes but theres a bit of nuance in that argument. Allen has targets that arent draftable but the difference is that Jackson plays in the ACC. But yes I agree Louisville does not seem to have a lot offensive talent (Miss State got to Jackson a lot in the 2nd half of that bowl game).

OMFG this has been done. Their numbers did go up. Not as much as Jackson's did (I think Mayfield was second). A third party did the analysis so I think they can be attributed to the catcher. I watched a ton of drops by his guys. I also saw a bunch of plays that could've been made by his guys that were probably not considered drops.

You could argue Kap was successful considering he lead a super bowl appearance.

Very much appreciate this. Probably the best comment I’ve gotten out of the tire fires that are TT threads. I think this is a very interesting point and could explain why we don’t really ever blow anyone out despite winning the TO battle. Maybe I’ll go to that PFR tool and look for game stats about points off turnovers and try to model winning percentage with turnovers. Thank you again

I agree with MrEpsYtown. The ACC is comparable to the Big 12. They are both Power 6 conferences that arent the SEC. If anything the defense in the ACC is better than the Big 12 right?

I think it’s the 50 passing attempts. There are 4 qbs that are pretty awful just under that line. I posted it up thread but I believe he only has like 71 passes. He was one of the lowerer ranked in terms of attempts (doesn’t explain his poor efficiency metrics though). I included 4th quarter plus OT with 50 attempts and he looked much more middling.

This has been done in other threads. Jackson has more drops than the others so he compares more favorably. I believe Darnold and Allen were not looking good after that analysis. On the Kap versus Jackson debate. Kap came out of Nevada. WAC is nothing close to the ACC. Also he played 4 years. His per year stats are not as good compared to Lamar and that’s including his senior year that really elevated his line. I will say 34 you are consistent in using off the field items in your analysis but I don’t understand how a business degree equates to success on the field.

Yeah I saw those stats and recreated the data set even (in the thread you started IIRC). I didn’t see the correlation to overall winning %, which is why I asked for the analysis. Cause isn’t overall winning % what we’re looking to do? I have seen turnover margin correlated to winning. If necessary I can pull the TO margin data. I don’t disagree that TT sucks in these situations. But it really speaks to how well he performs the “game manager” role that he can be so terrible during these situations and still have a winning record with 2 years of poor defense. Also I believe these stats indicate that when the game is on the line he will take chances (both TD% and INT% are above his average), which is something I have heard cast against him before. They say they’re not gonna cut him and he’s the best bridge QB we have on the team. That sorta leaves trade him, start him, or start then bench him as the only options.

If these stats matter please show the correlation to winning. I don’t think there would be good correlation to overall winning percentage. The reason folks point to TTs int% is because IIRC turnover margin is directly correlated with winning.

Check that search out on PFR. You can recreate the whole data set. I want to compare his td% and int% during this time to his typical. I’m pretty sure it’s going to be higher. Which suggests he does take chances when the game is on the line (a previous argument against him). He’s just not very good at it. Again I need to verify that.

Hes actually relatively small sample size relative to other QBs. Including the OT (so 4 lowest included) hes 27 out 36 qualifying.

So its definitely adding OT that changed things. Adds 4 not good QBs to the list. TT didnt really have a lot of attempts in OT. Could probably change the qualifying from 50+ passes to 60+ passes.

Tried to replicate this with Pro Football Reference (OMFG that site). I added OT cause you know its pretty critical. I get sorta different numbers. Puts TT clearly in bottom 3rd but not really dead last. I would like to see how he gathered his data. But seriously that PFR tool seems cray cray. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2015&year_max=2017&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&down[]=3&down[]=4&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=PASS&type[]=2PCP&include_kneels=N&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&margin_min=-8&margin_max=0&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards#offense::none

Is this intentionally out of order? FA is well in advance of the draft so I'm not sure how you would trade up, take a QB, and THEN start FA.

What about Broncos am i supposed to see? They haven’t hit on a QB yet. If anything they would be the get an elite defense and FA QB example right? I get that they are drafting and moving on quickly but I’m not seeing that being successful at all yet.

I gotcha now. Yeah that was probably the boldest thing in the prediction.