LEBills

Thank you, Beane actually addressed this in his post draft presser last year because he was asked about Kincaid and Torrence being older. He basically said that you like it if the guys are younger but that you are just looking for good football players in the end of the day. If I had to guess the more refined Pearsall fits what the Bills will look for more than Legette, though I am much lower on Legette than other Bills fans so it may be my bias. Yea definitely not saying this is what I would do as I’m not particularly high on Isaac, Kinchens or Pearsall. But for better and worse Beane usually doesn’t do what I want him to do lol. I do think it makes sense they like players they have connections with. I know if I got a job applicant who gave a reference of someone I knew and trust, I’d feel more comfortable I was getting a good employee if that reference gave a good recommendation. Haha yeaaaa, I feel the same way (tho technically it’s Beane not McD as far as I know). Why not invite Kirby Smart to your next BBQ instead Brandon? tho I guess Howie Roseman already has that market cornered.

Both are right. It is a small sample to draw conclusions from but with the NFL draft that is almost always the case. And I don’t think Beane veered off his board to select a player from a preferred school. But @NewEra is right too. I think if they have several players graded similarly, they may be preferential to the players who played for a coach they trust. An ESPN article from 2014(!) outlines McDermott being a part of a “little circle” with Aranda and Diaz… https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/11069344/rich-rodriguez-dan-mullen-james-franklin-discuss-coaches-customary-exchange-ideas Since then McDermott has publicly said how much he respects Aranda And Beane said in last year post day 2 press conference that he spent some time with Billy Napier (1:35 in) So in addition to the drafting of players from those programs in the past, it is pretty on record that they have relationships with those people for better and worse.

Preciate it. I did a similarly spirited post last year trying to predict our first rounder and whiffed big time lol but I think this has more evidence behind it. I’ve had this post typed up and waiting to go for a few weeks to see if more 30 visits got reported but they seem to have stalled out. Was waiting to see if any of these guys came for a visit since our 2nd rounders in 23 and 22 did. There were some rumors around the combine from Charlie Campbell that the Bills like Kinchens. His combine was not good and he does show up a bit soft on tape. But I do think he is the type of FS replacement for Hyde they would like.

We now have 7 drafts in the books where McDermott has been involved in the draft and 6 with Beane. In those 7 years, the Bills have drafted 7 players from three different coaching trees which may provide a hint to targets in the 2024 draft: Billy Napier (Florida Gators) O’Cyrus Torrence - 2023 second round Justin Shorter - 2023 fifth round Kaiir Elam - 2022 first round Dave Aranda (LSU and Baylor) Terrel Bernard - 2022 third round Tre White - 2017 first round Manny Diaz (Miami and Penn State) Greg Rousseau - 2021 first round Jaquan Johnson - 2019 sixth round 2024 Draftable players from these coaches include - Billy Napier: Ricky Pearsall, WR, projected Day 2 - Pearsall transferred in Napiers first year at Florida from ASU. Put up excellent Senior Bowl and Combine performances and is getting a lot of hype as a top 50 player in the draft. Dave Aranda: Gabe Hall, DT, projected Day 3 - Hall is a tall, long DT. Rushes high do to his height and may be best as a 3-4 end. 2 time entrant in Dane Bruglers Freaks list. Manny Diaz: Kamren kinchens, S, Day 2 - Kinchens is a productive, ball hawking safety that started as a true Freshman in 2021. He recently tested poorly at the combine. James Williams, S/LB, Day 3 - A 6’4’’ safety who is better coming downhill and may need a change of position in the NFL Leonard Taylor, DT, Day 3 - all hype and talent with very little production (All three Hurricanes were recruited to Miami for Diaz’s final year in 2021 and all played as Freshmen.) Chop Robinson, DE, Round 1 - Explosive pass rusher that is learning to translate traits into production Adisa Isaac, DE, Round 2-3 - The more productive of the PSU edge defenders. Kalen king, CB, Day 3 - once thought to be the next star college corner, his play has tapered off and measurables are only average. Move to safety possible. Johnny Dixon, CB, Day 3 - small aggressive corner who likely will be a nickel cornerback in the NFL Curtis Jacobs LB, Day 3- a leader at Penn State, a bigger linebacker more suited against the run Any Buffalo Bills? Highest chance (imo): 1.) Kamren Kinchens - I think Kinchens is the most likely to match need and draft range. Kinchens really disappointed at the combine but just prior to Kinchens testing Beane was quoted as saying ‘“I think instincts are really big at safety. If you’re telling me, ‘you can have an athletic guy that’s a 4.3 (in the forty yard dash), 4.4 safety but he doesn’t have instincts,’ I’ll take the 4.6 guy with instincts, ball skills, and a little less range.”’ Kinchens has 11 interceptions in his past 2 collegiate years. We also just hired Jahmile Addae as our CB coach after he was Kinchens DB coach for the past two years. 2.) Adissa Isaac - Isaac fits the body type the Bills tend to like with long arms. He was a team captain this year and led the team in sacks in 2023. Also reported to be a good character player who does a lot for the special needs community of which all of his siblings belong. Bills were reported to have met with Isaac at his Pro Day where he had an excellent performance according to reports. PSU is considered a local school for the Bills and so if they do bring him in it does not count against the top 30 visits. https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-notes-2024-ucla-penn-state-pro-days-edge-rushers-shine-laiatu-latu-leads-way 3.) Ricky Pearsall - If the Bills do decide not to go WR at 28, Pearsall may be in play at 60. Though he did play in the slot about 60% of the time, McBeane may see a good WR4 candidate that can learn all the WR positions. In last years post draft conference, Beane joked about how he should get an office at UofF due to the amount of Florida players they picked up in the last two drafts. Final Thoughts: Though the Bills have drafted from these coaching trees pretty consistently, it does not happen every year (2018, 2020) so it may not happen this year. Also missing that third round pick may make it difficult for the Bills to have a chance at some of the prospects listed as many could be gone between pick 60 and 128. And the Bills have predominantly selected from these coaching trees in the first three rounds (5 of 7 pick). I do think it goes to show the Bills willingness to take chances on guys that may not exactly fit their past schemes (Elam, Torrence), or didn’t test too well (Rousseau, Johnson, Benford, Tre) when these players are tied to coaching staffs they trust.

It’s true maybe we will learn more later and other targets will be included (hopefully!), right now I'm just going off the info we have I agree, I think the day 3 edge rushers are where the value is. Beane doesn’t always do things the way I see though for better and worse. And there are other DL visits we have had besides Kneeland so they may go a different way. I would just include Kneeland on the inside track to pick 60 right now with the other visitors.

Yea I’m not a fan either, but the weak DE class is having teams looking for potential and he has the coveted size, workout number combo. The last two years the Bills have had their second round pick in for a 30 visit so I give guys who have had that the inside track for the Bills for better or worse.

@gonzo1105 did Brugler say it was ok to copy his Bills picks? I kid, I kid I do think we will be surprised how few WRs go before the Bills pick. I think a lot of teams will target them in round 2 with the deep class. I like Brian Thomas so I’m good with the pick. I still think 60 will be a defensive lineman like Isaac, Kneeland or Orohroro. If they went safety here, I think it would be Kinchens despite combine. Couple of ties between Addae and McD favorite Manny Diaz that link him to the Bills. Other astute picks: I do feel like Johnny Newton makes it to rd 2 despite being a first round talent. I agree Chop goes before Latu due to the medicals.

One thing that is different with Eskridge is he played 5 years of college. All others on the list played no more than 3 seasons. Franklin is a true junior and I believe underrated.

Good find. Starts about 35:25 into the podcast

Let’s go! Don’t let the 4.7 40 fool ya

The bolded is so interesting to me because Nabers crushed zone in YPRR (4.5) and Burton was at 3.2 YPRR vs Zone. Both were markedly worse in yprr vs man. Is it just that the QBs are throw them better balls in zone coverage, and struggling to get them balls in good position for bigger plays against tighter man coverages? And do big plays vs zone mask some of the down by down poor separation vs zone for Nabers and Burton? Thanks again for posting

Yea I believe it’s Pitt, SU and PSU that are our local schools but I can’t find anything to verify that

He isn’t a FA, he is draft eligible this year. Devonshire may not count as I believe Pitt is considered a local school for the Bills

Quantez Stiggers was a 30 too

Private workout with McMillan

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State - Cardinals Rome Odunze, Washington - Giants Ladd McConkey, Georgia - Chargers Brian Thomas Jr., LSU - Saints Xavier Worthy Texas-Dolphins Bonus Bills pick - Troy Franklin

Thanks for this, interesting how what he sees varies a lot from what the analytic based scouting sees where Franklin grades out pretty well in all these categories. I don’t know the methodologies, but I’m guessing Franklins big plays against all the coverage types may boost his analytics profile and may mask some of the route to route deficiencies Harmon sees.

McConkey said he has met with the Bills several times. Bills met with Legette at the Senior Bowl and combine but no top 30 reported for either yet Yea this is it. There are some big time Legette and McConkey fans on the board for them to be gone. Franklin has his fans (me, Logic) but he is not nearly as popular. As for round 2, when you have 31 other Bills fans picking 56 players ahead of our pick, the guys bills fandom tend to like go earlier. In real life, the board will likely look much more favorable to us when 60 rolls around.

What about him makes you think he can’t be a WR1, or at least a lesser chance than the other receivers that may be available when we are there at 28?

WR4 in this class. People sleeping on him because of his combine. Just turned 21, improved every year in college and still has room to get better and bigger. I would be so pumped if this turns out true

I do have Mitchell a little higher because I think his floor is a good possession receiver as he is a good route runner. If he can tap into his athleticism his ceiling is pretty high though watching him run after the catch is painful and something I think is instinctual and may be hard for him to improve. Worthy is pretty inconsistent with his hands and routes but his highs are very high. Though I like him overall, I think he has a higher chance of being a straight bust.

Wondering if you are seeing data I haven’t found yet on this part? For both Pearsall and McConkey, what I have found is they didn’t face press man very much and both were not good at it in the small sample. I didn’t really see anyone get up on Pearsall in the games I watched due a lot to him being off the line and/or the D playing off coverage

3 tech, Oliver’s backup

This is exactly the right idea. Him or Christian Hayes would be my choice as both help JA. Haynes has a more direct path to playing time this year but OT is a more valuable position than Guard and I’m still skeptical Brown will play well consistently going forward. Insurance for 2024 and beyond would be a good idea.