TheWei44

The one thing I'll say re your 1) above is that we were in "playoff mode" with our backs against the wall. That's when we generally loosen the reins on Josh and let him run. So not sure we can credit that change to the coaching change per se. Even if Dorsey stayed on, my guess is that we'd need to allow Josh to run more since we were in survival mode.

Offense: Kincaid and Cook Defense: Oliver and Von (fingers crossed!)

A Bills blowout would be nice, but I'm expecting a tight game played by teams that are practically divisional rivals these days. The crowd will make a big difference, and I like how Josh has been handling cover zero, etc. type situations lately. Both Josh and Patty are masters at improvisation but with different styles (Josh will run through people and has a size advantage and Patty is maybe a tad more elusive but he can't break through tackles like Josh can). I expect a slugfest. Probably the wrong game to give up quaaludes!

Bills 31 Chiefs 20

I had the same thought but probably just coincidental (given our need to make roster moves)

Agree 100% - That 52-yard run was just sublime. Go Bills!!

I have a feeling we will destroy them today - Go Bills!!

My hunch is game will not get moved from Monday to Tuesday (although wouldn't be shocked if it gets moved) but that the stadium and parking lots will be nowhere close to typical game-ready condition. Field itself will be fine but everything else will be partially ready. Just don't think they'll have enough time (looks to me like lake effect bands will be an issue on and off through tomorrow morning).

Think the only way it's moved to Tuesday is if the stadium isn't cleared in time and/or Steelers can't get to game. The latter seems unlikely but who knows re the former!

Have to assume that's true

Offense: Kincaid, Fournette Defense: Oliver, Floyd

I was at the Bills Jets game in Detroit at Ford Field ( with a browns fan!). Great experience. We’d lose home field advantage to some extent fans- wise but that would be my vote if game gets moved. Ironically my daughter is in Ann Arbor this weekend for a high school thing. Go Bills!

Bills 24 Steelers 13

Agreed, he seems to do poorly at times going north/south or east/west - Seems better going more diagonally with quick cuts (and passing to him in space, of course, assuming he can hold on to the ball!).

One of many factors in the amazing run is by being in playoff mode, it freed Josh to run more (which seems very natural to him and fires him up). Much harder to defend us when he can run on any down and in any situation.

He has shown modest flashes until the last 1-2 games. I think there's still a glimmer of hope for him yet this season. I wouldn't play him a lot but give him a handful of opportunities and see what he does with them.

And apologies to folks for bogging down this thread with probability and statistics!! I'm a lowly economist and sometimes can't help myself!! Go Bills!!

Thanks for the response - I think a lot of what you're saying cuts both ways (e.g., tipping your hand re prime plays) and I was making the huge simplifying assumption of treating the two as independent events. But point well taken and agreed!!

Agreed, I was treating them as independent events. But I think you'd need a strong basis to assume that they can't be approximately treated as independent. That is, how does the very recent game specifically impact the next game?

This is a bit of the "gambler's fallacy": Just because roulette wheel was just on black, it's human nature to think it is more likely to be red next spin. That's not true. It's only when looking back and seeing 2 or 5 black spins in a row can we say how unlikely it was for so many blacks to occur in a row. So if each game is roughly 50/50, we could beat Miami once and feel that it's less likely we beat them again next week (disregarding that we wouldn't play them if we win). But if the second game were also roughly 50/50, those same odds apply to the second game. No reason for the odds to change. We can look back and say, wow, we beat Miami twice in a row and the odds of that happening are 50%*50% or 25%.

Free rolling tonight (to use a poker analogy)!! Go Bills!!

Exactly the sort of close, sloppy game we want!!

Sticking with our usual to avoid any jinxing: Eating Jet's (pizza). But drinking Labatt's too and maybe some scotch for the nerves!

Yep, as it has been for a while, this is essentially another playoff game for us. We're battle tested!! Go Bills!!

Ravens and Titans are 3 to 4 point dogs - So assume each has 30% chance of winning and give Bills 60% chance on Sunday night. Then the probability of all three "bad" events occurring is (70%)*(70%)*(40%) = 19.6%. So those estimates imply 80% chance Bills get into playoffs one way or another.