D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

https://theathletic.com/3030201/2021/12/23/hate-nfl-analytics-based-decisions-the-math-adds-up-more-often-than-you-might-think/ Some examples where decisions that were analytics-based may have helped this season. I'm not a pro-analytics or pro-old school. But, I do get a kick out of guys like Bradshaw and Long, everything is black and white with these tools. Doug must have been close at least, especially in volume. Yes I agree. I remember Belichick going for it against Peyton Manning and the Colts years ago. If I remember correctly the score was tied and it was fourth down from about his own 25 and he went and got stopped. His reasoning? We weren't going to stop Peyton tonight!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/liamfox/2021/08/12/how-the-nfl-uses-analytics-according-to-the-lead-analyst-of-a-super-bowl-champion/?sh=759e4b5424e6 To be fair, analytics means much more than just going for it on fourth down of course. This article talks about Doug Pedersen and how his decisions to go for it on 4th down and 2 pointers likely helped their SB run. I think being receptive to new ways of thinking (innovation) can give you a short -term advantage. I also think not giving adequate weight to experience can be deadly. Excellent post! To have a sample size large enough for some of these situations they'd have to include ALL games and all teams otherwise as you say they'd be too small. And, as Gunner pointed out, the teams in question and they're abilities must be considered as well which reduces sample sizes.

Yeah I wasn't thinking about that, more the fourth down from the 18. I believe he said he wanted to get his top run defenders on the field and that was why he called the ill-fated time out. I'd also add that if your defense is as soft as a team like San Diego that must be considered. I also don't think that just looking at win probability of a given situation should be the default for a decision.

For years and years, NFL coaches made decisions based almost completely on heuristics. For those unsure of what a heuristic is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic. Essentially, it is a rule of thumb, or trial and error aiding in decision making. For example, you don't go for it from your own 18 on 4th down, early, and in a close game. Analytics came along and it including looking at your chances of winning a game if you went for it on 4th down much more. Initially, this challenge to the old line approach proved to be correct because coaches had evolved into punting way to often in opponents territory (Think Doug Marrone punting from the 32). I would argue that analytics has been taken too far recently and is being misused by some coaches. I would also argue that some of the current decisions (think Brandon Staley) are just recklessly applied analytics. For one thing, the downside of this type of overly aggressive decision-making, the rewards (keeping the ball) vs. the downside risk (giving the opponents points) cannot possibly be worth it. My current opinion on the situation, which I welcome all of your opinions, is that there is something to be learned from certain analytics. Yes coaches had become too conservative and needing to be pushed to go for it more. But, there is much more to it for consideration by the decision maker. I also do not believe some of these situations coaches go for it(Staley); are using data that accurately represents THIS situation. I question how many times in history some of these situations have occurred to have been studied properly. Apologize for the length. What say you?

I remember Maynard becoming the all time receiving leader breaking Raymond Berry's record. I think it was something like 635 catches, so much different than nowadays.

I want him to just turn JA17 loose and take off any handcuffs.

Are we sure he wasn't pissed at Josh? Maybe he was bitching to McD, and has been complaining behind the scenes all along. "I told you that ***** B word couldn't play along" or "I want Fatso to call the plays that I love me some"

I especially liked how he adjusted to shanking his first one, he got a second chance and did it again...and for good measure did it again. If there is somebody more reliable out there we need them now!

I guess some, like yourself, might see it that way. I think he's a hard nosed coach, and his teams always played hard for him.

To say he's was not impacted by his time with NE and BB is just not correct -sorry.

https://247sports.com/Article/Miami-Dolphins-fire-Brian-Flores-Jim-Harbaugh-reportedly-could-be-targeted-180255930/

Vrabel

Good news for the Bills with Miami reacting this way IMO. I think it's a raw deal for Flores, I liked him.

Totally agree with this, especially numbers 5 and 6. I can only hope that Daboll didn't want to show much yesterday. The playcalling seemed to be a mess yesterday. Put the ball in #17s hands for hopefully the whole playoffs and supplement it with Singletary. Please, please, please don't try to balance them!

Great day so far, looks like Raiders or Chargers if we win!!!!

I'd trade no higher than a 3rd or 4th for him. Or Zach Moss and a 5th. Wait I just realized he's making a crap ton of money. Scratch that til I see the contract.

Since 1970 when I was 7. Only allowed myself to pick one team from a Dynasty. 75 Steelers, 84 49ers, 85 Bears, 92 Cowboys, 07 Patriots

Well there goes the neighborhood! Too bad

I've felt that since the incident occurred that Rodgers MVP candidacy was in jeopardy. Out of 50 voters there are enough who hate his guts and will privately express it with their vote. It wouldn't take much to give it to Jonathan Taylor or even Brady.

Washington Tax and Spenders? Washington Snyders? Washington Mofo's

I don't see these decisions as difficult. Ravens will sign Lamar is a no-brainer, MVP, playoff caliber squad that was bit by the injury/covid bug this year Browns will kick the can down the road for Baker because he was injured, they had a good year last year, don't need to pay him 40 mil this year you also have to consider who replaces these guys!

That sounds like the radical type change that is needed with the franchise. Excellent football guys.

Just reporting what I heard, could well be those.

Lamar is a no-brainer, he's coming back. Baker is just not really good at anything? Doesn't run well, okay arm, small, seems to play the victim card....Just the same, I have a feeling they find a way to bring him back. Why? he's average and who they getting?

Sounds like it will be the Red Tails per NFL radio