Remember, these guys are the top prospects for a reason. All the teams have looked at them with a fine tooth comb and decided who is most likely to succeed. Are they always right? No of course not. But, when you wait and wish for the number 4 guy, then you have had multiple other teams indicate that he is not #1 for them either. So multiple processes yielding the same result. Like it or not, the higher you're drafted also indicates the NFL teams, after running their process, think #1 is better than #4 and more likely to succeed. We know from research that teams drafting QBs in the top 5 are way more successful (50%), not great, but way better than down in the draft.