Kirby Jackson

This isn’t shocking. McCarthy isn’t very good. He was the guy, this year, that everyone used as the smokescreen. He was the guy that people kept hearing “would go higher than expected” and “possibly top 3.” In the end he was the 5th QB drafted. People believed that the Pats might take him at 3 and that the Vikings, Giants and even Chargers, might trade up for him. In the end the Vikings offered 3 firsts for Maye over just taking McCarthy. The Patriots turned down 3 firsts and just took Maye. The Chargers (wisely) stayed put, selected Alt, and kept Herbert. The Giants took the stud receiver. The Vikings waited and eventually got McCarthy. I wonder though if they would have actually taken Penix instead had he been there at 11?

I think yards for Shakir and receptions for Kincaid

Thank you!! That’s been my issue. It is certainly a bigger issue for me because of my concerns with Coleman but it’s a bigger point. If you have Josh Allen, my belief is that you will win BECAUSE of him not WITH him. You need to do everything you can to build up his playmakers. You need to give him guys that can make plays on their own, besides for him. Give Josh someone that is going to catch a 6 yard slant and take it 65 yards. Instead, the philosophy is Josh will side step 2 rushers, roll right, make another guy miss, toss it 45 yards down the field, to some guy that make shake free 9 seconds into the play, in hopes of scoring. I think it’s a mistake. Defensively, you need pass rush, LBs that can cover and smart DBs that don’t give up big plays. Defensively, the scheme is what you should win with. Offensively, you should win with the talent. The Bills have not adopted that philosophy. They’ve spent prime assets and big FA dollars on the defense. The irony is that the defense has largely been the same whether Dane Jackson, Levi Wallace and Christian Benford are back there as opposed to 1st rounders in Tre and Elam. They gave Von a zillion dollars and the pass rush is the same. They used a 2nd on Basham and are better off with Kinsgley Jonathan, etc…

I disagree. This is prior to this draft so it moved some but: Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense. That’s not good enough. When you have a HOF QB, you should prioritize his weapons, not hope that he elevates role players.

I think Coleman is more explosive and smoother. They have similar straight line speed but Coleman’s a better athlete. The point was, that Beane once liked Benjamin too. He drafted him in the 1st and traded for him. Beane doesn’t value quickness, speed and space as much as he values size. I think that’s an antiquated philosophy. I wouldn’t add guys that run 4.71 coming of a full season suspension for gambling. I’d rather take a flier on someone more explosive.

He loved Kelvin Benjamin too. While everyone gets faster, we get big, sluggish, late round fliers, street FAs, and UDFAs to support our HOF QB.

They are trolling us right? It’s like a science experiment.

Obviously we differ on Coleman. For me, it’s bigger than just him. They needed more speed. They needed another guy that can run routes and eat targets. They didn’t invest enough resources into WR (regardless of the Coleman pick). My philosophy is that if you have Josh Allen, your biggest responsibility is loading up around Josh Allen. You do that at the expense of other parts of the roster. The Bills differ philosophically. They have neglected the 2nd (or 3rd) most important position. They need Josh to cover up and elevate those around him. I so desperately want you to be right. Josh Allen had similar odds coming out and he overcame it. 🍻

They are possibly worse. They spent a 1 last year (although it hasn’t looked good so far) and an early 2 this year. They have potential but aren’t good right now either. Palmer isn’t horrible and Rice is another lottery ticket. They probably have a higher ceiling than the Bills but potentially a lower floor (although I think McConkey is pretty safe). They are certainly near the bottom.

There’s another scout saying, “he doesn’t separate and is a number 3.” I get that you want to be happy with the pick. Pretending that he isn’t polarizing and discrediting MULTIPLE reliable sources that don’t like him isn’t helping your case. If you believe that HE IS GOOD AT SEPARATING please provide the data that disputes Harmon’s analysis. Otherwise, it’s just blind homerism. We all want him to be great. Some of us are just willing to use actual data, analysis and film study to identify his strengths and weaknesses. We don’t need to pretend that he’s someone that he isn’t and we don’t need to discredit reliable sources because we don’t like what they are saying. It’s okay to live in reality. That doesn’t make you a worse fan. Also, do you care to list the WR groups worse than the Bills or are you still avoiding that harsh reality?

So you disagree with the 35 names that he names with similar profiles? Instead of agreeing with the data, we are going to discredit the (reliable) source? We have so much of that in the US right now. If you don’t like the facts, poke at the source. Here’s a scout that says he doesn’t separate (feel free to discredit him):

Bourne is my favorite of the established WRs on any of those teams. He’s pretty good IMO.

That’s fair. None are very good.

Some guy on Twitter yesterday listed Washington, Carolina and New England. Carolina has Thielen, Legette and Dionte Johnson. That’s 3 guys all better than our best (plus Mingo). The Pats have Juju, Bourne, Douglas, Baker and KJ Osborn (who people here wanted). That’s not good but better. McLaurin is miles ahead of anyone we have. Even if the other guys are a bit of a wash, Washington is better because of McLaurin. It’s a harsh reality and people (especially homers) don’t want to hear it. The Bills WR room is bad and doesn’t have the diverse skillsets needed. They don’t have a vertical threat, they don’t have a great separator, and they don’t have anyone that has proven they can handle large volume (despite having 300ish targets from last year gone). Maybe not insurmountable but we are asking a guy like Shakir to have 2.5-3x as many targets, with significantly more defensive attention (and limited space to work with). That’s a big ask. Coleman is a guy, to quote Buddy Nix, “that’s open when he’s not.” That doesn’t feel like a high volume skill set. If he gets what Davis got, that would be a lot. You’re still looking for another 130 or so targets from the WRs. Call Samuel 90 for the sake of this. That leaves 40ish for the other scrubs (roughly what the scrubs got last year). It’s a big ask for guys that haven’t seen the attention that they’ll see now. The Bills have quality role players playing leading roles.

I don’t know about “big” but definite upgrade. Sherfield caught one more TD than me (that one that bounced in the air). That guy sucks. The Bills are okay at WR depth imo. The problem is that they’re missing the top of the depth chart. So you like it better than last year but won’t compare it to others? Got it. I’m not picking on you. A lot of people are saying that the WR room is pretty good. When you ask them to compare it to others, they won’t because it becomes real. They are absolutely in the bottom 3 and may be last. If you go team by team and compare them it’ll reveal a harsh reality. As for the Chiefs, they are probably 20ish off the top of my head. They used early picks on Worthy, Moore, and Rice. Toney and Hollywood Brown are former #1 picks that they are trying to rehabilitate. They’ve allocated resources to the WR room. It’s not great but light years ahead of the Bills.

Even if he is at 100 as a “non traditional WR” there are still a whole bunch of targets unaccounted for. Do the math and find the 600 targets within this group. It is not an easy exercise.

1-32 where to you rank the Bills WRs? I’m not talking about the TEs or RBs. Where do you think that they are in terms of WR rooms? Please list all of the teams that you think are worse than them.

That’s not what happens. @LEBills explains it perfectly. He basically judges route running and ability to get space. Coleman was not successful at that. It doesn’t mean that he can’t be a good receiver. If you watch the video it names other guys with similar separation in college that succeeded as pros (Kupp, St. Brown, Boyd). They were all big slots though. Guys that got similar separation to Coleman in college have not translated to the boundary in the NFL. He lists the names. You can defend the WR room all that you want. If he succeeds on the outside, he will be an outlier. Josh was an outlier. It obviously can happen but it would be overcoming math and data.

Very fair and thoughtful analysis 🍻. Agree wholeheartedly

You think that the guy that founded reception perception, and charts every route run by WRs is “just a fantasy football guy?” That feels like you’re grasping at straws to fit the confirmation bias. I’ve said that the Bills are inarguably a bottom 3 WR room and may be last. Feel free to list the ones that you think are worse but be prepared to defend it.

Matt Harmon is THE guy when it comes to WR analysis. I posted his video on Coleman earlier. There were LOTS of people that thought he was polarizing. That’s not an opinion. People talking about his 40 time are not people that thought it was controversial. People talking about his lack of separation are the ones that had an issue. I don’t care if he’s a 4.5 guy or a 4.6 guy. I care that this is what his route tree looks like:

I’m guessing sarcasm? I don’t even understand the last part about “Cooper Cupp.” Cooper Kupp is an elite WR. Coleman has some similarities to Kupp coming out in terms of their separation issues. Kupp is a big slot though. The guys that have succeeded without separation have been big slots. If you don’t believe me, maybe you’ll believe WR guru Matt Harmon. Listen here as he explains: In terms of the volume, Kincaid will have a hard time handling it with 11 man boxes. The Bills needed some guys to run routes 20 yards down the field to open up the underneath. Underneath is where the guys currently on the roster succeed. That will be really crowded. Also, when it comes to “volume” a raw rookie who lacks separation isn’t a guy that eats targets. If they would have taken someone like McConkey (not my favorite of the options but better than Coleman) his skill set would have allowed for volume early. The Bills have roughly 600 targets to go around this year. How do you see them divided? Keep in mind that Diggs, Davis, Sherfield and Harty combined for like 300 last year. Before you tell me that Curtis Samuel (who I am a big fan of) is going to be the main guy, here’s what his GM had to say on him: Here is how his OC used him when they were last together: Again, I like the player but if you think that he is the number 1 WR that’s going to see the 160 targets that Diggs saw, we aren’t close to agreeing. Feel free to be comfortable with the WR room. I’m not and gave some of the reasons above. I would have pushed my chips in for an alpha. If you disagree, what is it that you like about them?

I actually like Scotty Miller some. He would be fine to compete for the 6th roster spot. He offers some traits that I like. The problem is, he will be a 4 here. All of the guys are pushed 2 spots up the depth chart because we are missing the top of it. The point wasn’t necessarily about a particular guy. It was about “if you are planning on _____ to help you, your room stinks.” They’re going to have to make a trade June 1 because they can’t go into the season with this group. It’s just not good enough or dynamic enough. They’re way too easy to defend.

I think all 3 of those guys can play. I just think that all 3 of them are being forced into roles that they aren’t capable of (or yet in Kincaid’s case). Kincaid has a chance to be one of the best TEs in football. I don’t think that he should be the top receiving option on a Super Bowl contender at this point in his career. Samuel is a dynamic player with the ball in his hands. He has Deebo qualities. He’s meant to be a change of pace guy not a boundary receiver with volume. Shakir was very good late last year out. He’s versatile and can also run after the catch. I’m just not sure that effectiveness will translate with 100+ targets and defenses focusing on him. They are all good and would be even better with the right people above them on the depth chart (or at least alongside of them).