Here is the scenario and you tell me what is more likely. Odds aside and results aside.
1. The Bills need 1 yard to convert the 4th and 1 on the Colts 40. If they get 1 yard, they need another 15-20 yards to kick a 37-42 yard field goal for basically the win. Or even say 25 more yards to make it an easier field goal try.
2. The Bills punt. Need to force Indi to punt without them picking up 2 first downs. If they get 2 or more first downs, the game ends in a tie or even a loss if Indi continues to march. And then assuming they stop them, they would start at their own 25-35 with their 3rd string quarterback, with awful weather conditions, and have to go about 50 yards with 2:30 and 0 timeouts...
You are actually saying number 2 gave the Bills a better chance to win yesterday?
Results aside, and odds aside. Because that was roughly the scenario Mcd was given when wondering if he should punt or go for it.