Bleeding Bills Blue

I felt KC benefited from quite a few defensive penalty calls that felt a bit ticky-tack. Right before the JuJu TD we stopped them and they held and we got a d-holding call i didn't really see. Another one on Elam that didn't seem egregious at all. Same with one on Neal on that same drive. JuJu's taunting penalty kind of shot that drive backwards but they were given a few extra chances there. And another on the final drive.

On their last FG drive everyone around me at the stadium was calling for Mahomes to throw it - but I think he knew it would be called back if he threw it as almost all of his linemen were down field as he scrambled towards the LOS.

Raiders were my original pick. I'll go with new england. Everyones all about the Jets right now - the miracle browns win where cleveland should have iced it, Pittsburgh probably should have beaten them, and then that miami beatdown with the 3rd string QB. I like their defense but I have 0 worries about the jets They really do need to win their next 4 games though - Bears, at jets, colts, and home against jets. 3 home games - all 4 winnable. if they do then its winning against Miami (in NE), LVR, and at Arizona and they'd be at 10 wins.

They are a tough matchup. They run people in front of him, or force him to carry coverage up the middle, which creates windows to get to the 2nd level with kelce.

They just don't line him up there though

He's been pretty good all year - had a bad day in KC. I think justifiably you can argue he should have a reduced snap count. He needs to earn back trust with his performance on the field. Focus on 10-15 plays that you want from him, jet motion stuff, some man beating concepts etc. That was if they didn't make the active roster i believe.

He was not on PUP. He made active 53, then was placed on IR. Once he start practicing i think theres a 3 or 4 week window to activate.

Or just trade him in the offseason when there are more suitors. Nothing changes much between now and then. If he gets injured, you can always cut him too. There's a decent chance the GM could be fired so he might be told no on CMC trades in general.

Mckenzie had a really bad game - not going to fire him but id probably put him behind shakir to try and spark something. Can't make that many mistakes in a big game and not expect something. You get an extra week to get shakir up, and you put mckenzie at the 4 and give him some package plays but his snap count should be decreased. However... and I want to stress this. We will need Mckenzie before the season is over, so don't roll the bus over him. Shakir dropped a wide open pass in the pittsburgh game, and concentration drops were an issue for him in his college scouting report. It was a dumb play imo. We run and pass our way down then try some weird cheeky jet motion read option WITH a pitch - just dumb. If you want to run it, run it - or hand it on the jet motion... just a really confusing easy to screw up play. He's still gotta have that ball though.

Yeah, they scheme kelce open quite a bit. They sort of drive someone underneath to force the inner zone guy to cover and kelce basically finds hte soft spot between the linebacker and DB. Straying into man is where he can really gash you with YAC.

I might barely even rush - 2 or 3 safeties deep and man coverage underneath. Have 1 guy spy and 2 guys rush.

I think part of the challenge is determining a value. Usage to me doesn't equate to value. Often the complete package is determined to be a better option than 2 or 3 incomplete packages, and I'm not really sure if this is true (outside of fantasy) . Take Mixon for example - over his last 4 years he has been a running back workhorse and generally a "complete" running back. He has averaged 3.91 YPC and has scored on 2.8% of carries, while earning 7.33 yards per catch. Zach Moss has averaged 4.08 YPC, has scored on 3.5% of carries, and 7.25 yards per catch for his career - and we can probably all agree the way he's played this year we can consider him at the very least "replacement level". Mixon signed a deal last year for 4yr 48million. I think looking at the numbers above and also during time missed for injury in 2020, he wasn't any more effective than the combination of Perine, Bernard, and Trayveon Williams. They can probably get similar production from a stable of rookie contracts or moderately priced free agents. Le'veon bell is another example - he held out multiple times trying to get that extension and sat out all of 2018. In 2018 Pittsburgh rushed for fewer yards, but they did so in far fewer plays and with greater efficiency. Bell - 321 for 1291 9 TDs and 85 catches for 655 and 2 TDs Conner/Samuels - 271 for 1229 12 TDs, 81 catches for 696 and 4 TDs.

Better yet, have a guy behind the catcher just call them.

I hate using replay in most sports. I like how NFL streamlined some things on obvious challenge plays to speed up play. But the things people want to most challenge are BS penalty calls. Baseball is probably the worst though. Seems like you can challenge everything but balls and strikes, and its obnoxious. Players scout umps, they know what their zone is before a game. To me its such a non-issue. Hockey Offside challenge is terrible, one of the worst replay rules. VAR is terrible in soccer. There are line judges whos sole purpose is to call Offside, just let them do it.

Why not just put a chip in the baseball and do balls and strikes too? Probably because it doesn't work, not to mention - things don't need to be right all the time. You play baseball for your entire life with human umps, but now you get to the show and theres some computer determining balls and strikes... just doesn't seem right to me. Same goes here, until college they didn't even do reviews for your entire football life. It's part of the game.

He's benched on the toxic team. Are we sure he's not the toxic one?

It won't fully front load the cap hit - as far as i can tell. They would lose the remaining base salary off the books, and the bonus would be dead money. 2022 cap hit with him: $8,785,750 2022 cap hit if they trade: $7,750,750 2023 cap hit from trade: $18,352,250 If they trade him in the offseason they can do it after June and do the same thing - 7.75 in 2023 and the rest in 2024.

Why would they want motor when they have Blackshear?!

Agreed, his value is very tricky. If he had a big base salary or something then i could see the value being lower, but his salary for 2022 is very low. There is nothing to really motivate the trade now for that reason. Why not trade him next year when everyone has cap space and you have multiple bidders? A team might overbid because they feel they need the player or something, but you're as likely to get similar value in the offseason.

How much more value is CMC the player than our current RBs - this year? How many yards per carry? Even at 1 yard additional per carry (which is VERY generous considering he is averaging 4.5 right now and 4.6 for his career), and 15 carries per game (also VERY generous in our offense) that totals out to 180 yards (12 games, 15 carries for an additional 15 total yards vs. current). Our running backs have secured 29/38 targets for 209 yards. 76% catch and 5.5 yards per target. CMC has secured 26/35 targets for 188 yards. 74% catch and 5.37 yards per target. I assume some of that is that carolina is extra lousy on offense this year, and probably the case. But its also his 6th season, he's coming off multiple injuries in the last 2, and is rocking an injury this year as well. CMC is a running back, so lets not talk about his hypothetical slot value as we have no tangible evidence to suggest he'd be a better option there than McKenzie/Shakir. You can flex him out wide like you do with anyone else, but it isn't going to be what he does frequently. The ONLY way I see this as a move you make - is if you think he is the key piece to put you over the edge in a playoff scenario. The value above the current backs doesn't seem to be there extrapolated over a full year. Beyond that, we haven't seen Cook's best football by any means - and he could be very good.

We are in Shotgun considerably more than the giants, browns, or texans. We're still trying to figure out how to more effectively run from shotgun. What we're not going to do is play more under center to fix our run game... then break our passing game that's torching most teams. Barkley has 62 under center carries vs 35 shotgun carries. Chubb has 76 and 22. Pierce has 65 and 21. Singletary has 20 and 20. We're never under center, and when we are we tend to not do as well. We tend to switch to under center in obvious running situations and we suck at short yardage for that reason. We also score more points than all of these teams. The Browns are 2-3 with wins over carolina and pittsburgh, and losses to the jets and falcons. Their offense is doing well but that's not exactly murderers row of defenses, and they are a unique matchup team since they have a very weak passing attack and play with more of a power running style. The Giants have one of the worst passing offenses in the league, and the texans have one of the worst offenses in the league. What good are rushing yards if you dont score points?

So we tried in 2021 offseason to trade for miller then drafted 2 guys. Then signed him in 2022. So by the same comparison we would sign CMC in 2023, no?

The NFL won't let the front 7 guys run down field right away, and you can in college.

Mckenzie has been pretty clutch for buffalo in the RZ so far this year, and he's tough in man. I'm not taking away the majority of his snaps for a rookie after a game that he was ruled out of based on injury. It's a fluid position - they'll both play.

The reason i think the rumors are likely somewhat BS? When we initially explored the CMC trade, we didn't have Cook. Now we do - it kind of changes how much I'm willing to offer for a running back when i drafted a pass catching running back.