Bleeding Bills Blue

Replaced by Isaiah Mckenzie again oddly enough 🙂

Well i think the point is... the corpse of micah hyde is better than the rookie. Therefore increasing the chances of winning vs. losing.

That was such a weird draft too. Everyone expected 3 WRs off the board in the top 10 and it ended up being 0.

They kept the band together for 2 extra seasons. There was a double down with von 2 seasons ago. Then last season they brought back poyer, phillips, lawson, and didn't make moves with players like hyde, neal, and morse. All of those things were done essentially with future cap space. Now we're feeling that cap crunch. By ripping the bandaid off this year, and generally trying to prevent borrowing on future cap, you can identify your window to potentially swim a bit more into free agency and trades. The key is to draft well, and get contributors on those rookie deals.

Lets play the cap math game... Say its a 1.5M cap hit, incentives to bring it up to 3 (playing time, stats, gameday actives). Signing him pushes a rookie deal off the 53 man calculation. A rookie deal is ~800K. So now you have added 700K in cap hit to the balance sheet. It barely registers. Factor in say... 500k is guaranteed. If they cut him, they add 500K to the balance sheet, when they bring back the ~800K rookie contract at the bottom of the roster.

Then you upgraded at ST gunner and WR5/6. And when factoring in Hollins number, you then subtract shorters 875K because he essentially replaces him in the calculation for the 53.

I think it's likely a small guaranteed number. If he can't beat out shorter- then you cut Hollins, and the guarantee is essentially tacked onto shorters cap hit. You lose probably less than 1M in cap space, and shorter has to stay healthy and outplay Hollins.

The best WR drafted last year was a 5th rounder. 2022 - Wilson Olave London Dotson in first. Pickens and Doubs go in the 2nd and 4th. 2021 - Pitts Chase Waddle go 4/5/6 - and St. Brown is drafted in the 4th. Its not like that every year - but there are great players picked outside the first round.

Now I'm no agent... but i reject that deal.

His deal was 20M AAV and he signed it in 2022. Even today thats top 15-20 in the NFL. He is not among the best 15-20 WRs in the NFL. They drafted a similar player last year in the first so the writing was probably on the wall then.

Floyd and Davis count. Morse, Neal, Poyer, Hines do not. Trubiskey was cut so he doesn't count. Hollins and Morrow's dollars likely don't make the cutoff of around 3 million.

Hes also 30, and blew out his knee last year.

Thats a lot to invest at WR when theres 1 ball. Assuming Diggs targets go down from 160 to say... 125. Thats 35. Davis had 81. Now we're up to 116. Sherfield/Harty had 43. So 159 targets total. Knox had 36 targets- i feel like that number is low. But we'll say its static. Cook had 54 targets. CEH had 55 catches across 15 games at LSU when brady was playcaller. I'd expect this to go up. Lets say.. 75. That makes 138. Kincaid had 91 targets. I'd expect that number to go up. Lets use laportas 120. Thats down to 119 targets. Shakir had 45 targets. Lets go low end and say... 80? Thats 35 more. That would leave 84 targets across a 10M WR and a rookie. Obviously injuries happen... and there's potential for more.

Brady is a big fan of the 3x1 condensed bunch stuff. It allows your smaller shakir/diggs types to play off the LOS, and you can either ISO kincaid on one side, or put him at the head of the bunch and iso diggs on the other side. Was easier with davis as your on the LOS WR. I felt like we got a little too cute with checks at times, and threw too many of those little boundary swing passes but for the most part it does help with creating mismatches. Other teams see how lining up and showing blitz etc will adjust what we do, so you just have to think about that when doing play design.

He's probably pretty cheap. They only count top 53 so even a 2M deal is really just about 1M in cap space basically since it nudges someone in the 800K range off the balance sheet. Considering he was on the eagles practice squad at the end of camp in August... I don't think this is a big money deal or changes anything buffalo is doing directionally with their defense. They usually kept 5 last season, and this puts buffalo back at 5 off ball linebackers.

House arrest until 10/31/2025. He probably will end up back in jail by the end of the year.

This is what they have for overthecap - also i just read all this, i thought it was money only. https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks Start with the Average Per Year (APY) of the contract signed. Subtract from the APY any money that the compensatory formula does not count3. Rank these players by adjusted APY in descending order, and assign points to each player, equal to [number of leaguewide players]-[rank]. Add anywhere from 25 to 100 points for players who played a percentage of snaps on offense or defense in the range of 25% to 100%. (Kickers and punters are given a different point addition unrelated to snap counts.) Add 20 or 5 points for postseason honors as determined by the AP’s All Pro list, and the PFWA’s All NFL/All Conference list. Bates was 2nd team all-pro and made the pro-bowl and played a higher percentage of snaps. So that explains the jump ahead of edmunds. Since Bates is now a 3rd round pick instead of a 4th... Orlando brown who was also judged at a 4th, now cancels out with Vonn Bell who is the next highest comp pick in the formula of a 6th round pick. A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained. If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value. A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out.

The top end was tagged a year ago with jacobs, barkley, and pollard all getting it. Factoring in what they all received last year - all are basically getting a similar number AAV. Swift, Henry, Jones, Ekeler all available this year too. It was a pretty loaded market. Looking at this list - i don't see anyone who i'd pay left. Let someone else overpay. Patterson - Old and a KR only guy Mattison - Bad Elliott - bursts of good, but he was always a big hitter and now he's hitting singles instead of homers CEH - still young, coming off a terrible season Akers - still young, coming off a terrible season Foreman - big fast dude in the murray mold Scott - Put him next to damien harris Harris - See scott, plus an injury Dobbins - Can't see much of a market with all the injuries Hunt - Didn't even lead his team in carries after chubb was hurt so... i'd assume hes trending down Dillon - Big.. fast... not sure he's very dynamic though. Mckinnon - pretty much 3rd down only, would take away some cook snaps in those situations. Not an upgrade over cook, but an upgrade over murray playing on third downs blocking.

Wouldn't be shocked if we stayed away from the 2nd wave tbh.

I should hope so - you don't spend 3 firsts in 3 years on playmakers just to spend a 4th in a row. If anything they might be in a good spot for someone to trade up for a QB. Could always move London on draft day i suppose if you really like nabers or something. There's only one ball, and you got robinson wanting his 90-120 targets. Then you have pitts wanting probably 80-100. Then you have london wanting 100-140. Last year they had jonnu smith as the 4th option, but i would assume mooney slots in for a lot of those. There's probably snaps and targets available, but i'm not sure a first round pick there is wise, unless you are considering Pitts basically a bust. Considering their pass rush is absolute trash, and they had 8 total interceptions as a team - they probably need to add to that defense.

Its supposed to be about the money.

McDuffie is an all-pro nickel. Joe Thuney is an all-pro guard. Creed Humphrey is among the best centers in football. Beyond those other 3... there are a lot of "good" players Bolton and gay are very good linebackers. Karlaftis has already come along and become a pretty good contributor. Sneeds everything you need in a corner to run a blitz heavy defense.

If you won the super bowl in the last 3 seasons i think you could make more of an argument to keep the band together. Tre needed to be released because the contract didn't match the contributions, and he probably couldnt pass a physical. You have no idea what you're going to get from him. Poyer needed to be released because honestly - he's 33, he has a bum elbow, and he just wasn't as quick or dynamic anymore. They used him a bunch as a linebacker simply for coverage chops over dodson, and i think they liked rapp enough doing his thing in the same spot. Faster, bigger hitterAlso with the free agency group there's just too many good players for so many jobs. Morse was a tougher call, especially after moving bates - but honestly i thought they might have moved on from him last season so it didn't shock me.

We have a starting 4 + Von. We probably need 4-5 more. I wouldn't say were done with the defensive line, but the needs along the line are a bit less than they were a day ago. I think its still a priority draft spot, and the phillips and lawsons of the world will be available to fill in any gaps.

Didn't watch him enough last year to know yay or nay how he looked.... Having said that. Feels like you're paying a 3-down wage (not superstar 3 down, but someone like a David Montgomery) to more of a 2-down player. 0 time 1000 yard rusher, going into his 6th season. High mileage during his college career. Career low yards per attempt in 2024 with a career high in attempts. Nothing special really as a receiver out of the backfield. He has some really good shiftiness in the mold of a kamara, so there always was 3 down potential. Never impressed me as a blocker either, as he ended up losing a lot of those snaps to moss. But he had also had a LOT of drops here. And not the corner of the endzone james cook drops. I mean swing passes, screens, etc. He didn't have as many last season, but it was also a career low in targets.