Bleeding Bills Blue

It tends to fall that way - but if you have some guy that you had as a top 15 pick and its late in the first - i don't know that i care that much unless he's a QB. If we can get a valuable player at WR/DE/DT/CB/OT that you project as a pro-bowl caliber player and a star, you should get that player.

I think Diggs can and will move into a primarily slot WR role and do quite well into his 30s.

I'm usually a BPA type - stick to your board. There are obviously limits - I don't think RBs, TEs, OG's, Safeties, and LBs are usually worth 1st round picks unless they are players you project as all-pro's. Value you can get on QB/WR/DE/DT/CB/OT 5yr rookie deals is too good to pass up since those are the most expensive positions to fill.

Free agency will fill out some holes. I think with limited budget and our losing so many veteran contributors - i expect them to add 2 safeties in free agency. I'd also think DQ comes back. It's probably the time to stop putting the same band back together though - so i don't expect lawson, phillips, hyde, poyer, and probably tre to return. Douglas makes it a lot easier to lose tre. Defensive line is expensive, even 1T guys are getting paid lately. But after the initial blitz there you can find some value (thats how we ended up with Floyd).

Harrison, Nabers, Odunze are the 3 that most mock drafts indicate will be the first 3 off the board, and are the consensus best prospects. Obviously that doesn't mean that they'll be the best players, but they are the Chase/Waddle/Smith group at the top of the class.

I think it'd more likely be a DE than a safety in the first. I can't see any of the top 3 WRs falling to Buffalo, and the drop off to the next group is pretty large. One of the top 5 DE's seems more realistic.

Given every chance for playing time Johnston has been outplayed by Palmer. Not a good look, even if you're just a rookie.

I remember all the mocks had lamb/jeudy/jefferson/ruggs in the top 10-15. Jags didn't get a WR. Jets didn't get a WR. Giants didn't get a WR. Lions didn't get a WR. 49ers waited even though they could've had Lamb. Whatever happened between picks 18 and 21. It just fell really weird that year. Most of us expected maybe Aiyuk, and talked ourselves into higgins at 22. You trade the first, you get your guy - you give allen a true number 1. Minnesota doesn't have to pay him, and they ended up getting the 5th off the board when most of us expected something like 7th.

They do need to get a bit younger on that side of the ball. Only a few starters on rookie deals going into 2024- Benford, Bernard, Rousseau. You have Williams and Elam there for depth. On offense - Kincaid, Torrence, Brown, Cook, Shakir are all on rookie deals and play pretty important roles.

2017 - Corey Davis (bust), Mike Williams, Ross (bust) - 66% 2018 - DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley - 0% 2019 - Hollywood Brown (not a bust, but 1 1000 yard season in 5 isn't leaping off the page), Nkeal Harry - BUST - 50% 2020 - Ruggs (bust), Jeudy (0 1000 yard seasons, i'm leaning bust), Lamb, Reagor (Bust), Jefferson, Aiyuk. 3/6 - 50% 2021 - Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney (Bust), Bateman (bust) - 2/5 - 40% 2022 - Too early to tell fully - but seems like a solid class. London, Burks, Dotson all don't have QBs, and Williams is not getting snaps. Olave and Wilson look solid even without good QBs.

I feel like a lot of the experts felt jefferson's professional success would end up with him playing primarily in the slot. Teams don't usually prioritize that in the first round. That his 4.4 40 time didn't really reflect his play speed accurately, and that he played smaller than his size. The experts were wrong. We'll never know what Ruggs was capable of, but he had the measurables that GM's drool over. Jeudy felt "safe", but his concentration drops have been an issue. Lamb felt like the home run swing in the first, even if he didn't test that well - Him not being the first off the board that year was shocking. And reagor felt like the deep threat. Aiyuk, Higgins, Pittman all were there too, albeit with their own wrinkles - Aiyuk didn't have a ton of impressive film, Higgins was considered raw route running, Pittman got the "possession receiver" label etc.

Considering the best WR from the 2023 class was a 5th round pick, i don't know that you need to double dip in the first 2 rounds. There wouldn't be enough snaps for a 2nd round player between having to split time with 1st round WR, Shakir, Kincaid, and Knox. Free agency will change a bunch of factors - but Buffalo appears to be set at QB1 - RB1 - The rest can be depth vets, 6th round or later, or UDFA's WR1 - Assume Diggs is back, i don't really know why he'd want to leave other than coaching. He doesn't get trade control (could end up on the panthers or something), is already on a contender, 8th in the league in targets. WR2 - No one on roster that I'd have a ton of faith in. Would like some serious wheels. Shorter projects more in that Sherfield role than anything else to me. WR3 - Shakir TE1/2 - Both locked in OT - Both locked in OG - Both locked in C - Bates probably steps in if morse is a cap casualty - they could also look to add here in the draft with an OG/C player Defensively its just... a mess. I assume a lot gets figured out around free agency. DQ being brought back would go a long way. I don't see how they can play much in the pass rushing FA pool with limited resources, but we said that last year and ended up with Floyd. LB looks fairly set with a solid depth piece behind the starters. Corner with or without tre is fairly solid. S is another huge ?. DE - Rousseau Johnathan Miller DT - Oliver LB - Milano, Bernard, Williams CB - Douglas, White (potential Cap casualty), Johnson, Benford, Elam, Neal S - Poyer (also potential cap casualty)

They can move him on that 5th year option if they need to. Only way that works is if you secure another QB though. Maybe you can sell the fanbase on baker or cousins, but a rookie is a lost season. Maybe you could swing a trade for Murray - then move tua to get some picks back. But that would only work if Arizona was picking at the top of the draft. The main issue is I'm not sure he can in good conscience even play on a 5th year option. With the injury history you almost have to hold out for an extension.

It was definitely another RPO. Which we had dropped like... 4 times in the game already on 3rd down. It was a yard, not 3, lets be smart here. Even a Murray run is a smarter call if you don't want to sneak it.

As we all know - backups can and have won games before... The titans need to get back to doing what they do well. Offensive line is a mess in pass pro. Run, and stop the run. They do that and they can potentially beat the jags.

The turnovers will probably catch up to them at some point. 8 INTs and 4 fumbles in 5 games is a lot. Last in the league in turnovers, and 3rd in takeaways on defense. They're getting yards and big plays right now, they run the ball well, but the margin for error come playoff time is usually pretty slim. A bad INT and a missed FG can basically become a 6-10 point swing that costs you a game. You also often face better offenses that turn the ball over less, which can again amplify your own turnovers. Defensively they have 7 games where they gave up 250 yards or less and are 7-0 in those games. They had 3 teams under 200 yards. Combo of bad matchups, bad QBs, and the bengals starting burrow with like 0 training camp or practice week 1. They're a good defense, and good defenses punish bad teams as buffalo fans have to know too. Most of the teams that did well against them ran the ball fairly well to help slow their pass rush. They're a tough matchup for anyone.

I think the challenging part here is all 3 of the AFC south teams winning this week. The steelers winning out will also be a tricky scenario. Stroud is back for Houston, which definitely helps - but the WR group is not the same one he left with. They're also playing the titans, who while 2-3 in their last 5, are playing some decent football. They're playing tennessee who they just snuck by in OT with keenum. Ideally stroud gets you the advantage you need, but the titans did knock off miami and are probably a little pissed off about the recent loss. Jags are playing without lawrence, have lost 4 straight (last 2 have been by multiple scores, and they have 10 turnovers across 3 weeks), and need to win both in this scenario (houston and indy play one another so both cannot finish 10-7). Carolina isn't good, but they are not going to rollover. Week 18 in Tenn will also not be easy. Indy gets to play their last 2 at home, but they haven't been playing that consistently in weeks, and are very turnover dependent. Their poor rush defense faces a raiders team that pretty much will run it til you stop them. Should be interesting. Steelers need to win 2x on the road where they are 3-3 this year. They haven't scored more than 24 in any road game all year, and all 3 wins are by 1 score. Baltimore will rest starters if they beat miami. If they don't, miami will rest starters against buffalo.

Colts, Giants, Chargers in the rain, Steelers, and Broncos were the other 5. Not exactly murderer's row of QBs - can kinda sell out to stop the run games in most of those. 3 of their 4 wins were on the road, including their last two wins @Pitt and @Den. Pittsburgh: NE punted 9 times. Interception spotted them good field position for one drive, and another started close to mid field. They didn't score in the 2nd half - zappe threw a pick and the steelers couldn't score points from the 16 yard line. Denver: NE had 6 3 and outs and beat denver, who had 5. Denver spotted the ball at the 6 yard line to start the game and didn't score. Turnovers are one way Buffalo can lose. I don't see NE having more than a couple sustained drives in the game this week, dont spot them field position. Tackling should be a big focus. NOT FUMBLING should be a focus. Game plan should be those sustained drives that bill wants to give you - use cook and kincaid over the middle. Pick your spots for diggs. FG's aren't terrible in this one - and use Allen's legs to give them problems when they switch to man coverage.

He's taking himself off the field quite a bit. To me seems like likely a pain management issue. Foot, ankle, something like that.

36 total pass attempts the last 2 weeks means targets are low for everyone. His are probably especially low as we've been running a lot on first downs.

Passing short on the early downs - use the boundary in those 3x1 sets, Kincaid over the middle, easy stuff like that. Put them in tricky positions on 2nd down. I also like the idea of bringing in some of the spread formation stuff (even in a 12 personnel grouping) - Bill hates when Allen runs so he tends to not rush too deep and lets the stunts and DTS get pressure up the middle, so put some extra people down field and try and high low some of the backers. Mix in a no huddle look here and there after a successful play to prevent bill from getting creative. Switch from spread to a 2 TE look on 2nd and 3, no substitutions and you can either run or PA.

This one wasn't that egregious of a dive. He might have been able to stay on his feet, but i'm not sure. He was hit with a pretty forceful forearm, square in the upper chest near his neck, late, and he had just thrown and was backpedaling so i could see falling. To me it was a penalty, and a really stupid one at that.

I watch the wrestling "premium live events" on peacock - thats about it though. I was thinking of checking out the twisted metal show though, always loved those games when I had a playstation.

The break glass in case of emergency option for Johnson was already on the practice squad though.

I liked the tush push fake we pulled. Line up someone behind allen, then when the line moves in snap it and go into the vacated gap. If they don't move in, tush push, if they do, find some space.