Bleeding Bills Blue

It's going to be tough to go down the whole line Arizona - 3/9 33% - 2/2 on 4th downs (both less than 2 yards), 1 3rd and 19 after a penalty, another 3rd an 14 after penalty. Miami - 3/9 33% - 0/3 in 2nd half, and after the pick 6 it was all but ballgame. Jax - 6/11 - Thats a good game. Baltimore - 3/13 - 17, 8, 10, 10, 12 - so 5 times they faced 3rd and long. Houston - 3/14 - 20, 11, 9, 14, 10, 9, 8, 10, 10. This alone is absurd, 9 times they faced 3rd and long.

So you want to lose so you can be like "see, beane's terrible". Got it. Bigtime fan.

Fair, he's big and elusive. Us missing half our defense helped them too, so i don't really feel that bad. People get injured.

I mean... he's a defensive coach and the adjustments that were made resulted in 3 punts and 2 takeaways. During the 5 possessions buffalo had after that they scored 10 points. I'd put the onus more on brady and allen in that regard.

I think timing of playcalls has been an issue on the road. Not getting to the line quick enough, and always going on 1 makes it a lot easier for defense to disguise.

I think both game plans might look a little different. It's also october so both teams will look considerably different should the teams meet in the playoffs. Impact players get hurt all the time.

Both road games against 2023 playoff teams with good defenses.

Probably the jags 9-6 game for me. Both were bad when it came to pass protection and he made it worse.

I don't disagree with anything you said. This is a big game on the road against a defense allen has struggled with, its not going to get easier for him - honestly probably harder. My additional thoughts: We need some adjustment to snap counts on the road because its part of why the offensive line is struggling. The ends were getting far up field creating a lane for josh to take - and then adjusting to his lane with the spy. He has to just stay put on some of these to make it hurt when they use a spy. Scrambling just cuts away half your receivers. Taking too long to get plays in. With the team having a ton of offensive turnover, you need motion - ours looked half-assed at times because we only had 4 seconds, and it felt like the defense didn't give anything away. We also haven't been using motion as well on the road. Get to the line quick, give yourself time to get your alerts in. Keon in the slot. Boundary guys are struggling, and if shakir is out this week I want to try and manufacture targets for Keon. If you want to put sauce or Reed on kincaid, so be it. Samuel almost needs to start in the boundary for this to happen. I'm not sure they'll do this because its wholesale changes but it needs to happen. No Huddle. Hard to do on the road but hand signals can help here. Just get them off their gameplan, and you have to avoid penalties and negative plays. Manufacture some completions by getting to the line quickly.

I thought he got the wind knocked out of him, which might have just been how he landed. His head did hit the turf but that doesn't mean he got a concussion either. Boxers get punched in the head and don't get a concussion on every punch.

Most QBs show some wrinkles on the road, its harder to play in general when you're in hostile territory. Silent snap counts, harder to communicate pass pro, harder to call alerts... but that was just terrible. You have to make them pay when your play works, and allen did a poor job on that.

I am not sure how snaps played out, so i hesitate to blame samuel and knox too much without knowing how much they even played. I question a gameplan that involves hollins playing the majority of snaps though. Might be time to make a change there - either give MVS or knox or samuel some of those snaps.

I don't think most teams have the horses to get pressure and man up the way baltimore and houston have. But i expect to see a lot more man coverage as the year goes on. The other thing they need to figure out is trying to disguise snap counts more effectively on the road.

It's tough to say - you don't know where hollins is supposed to be, or how it was practiced.

I thought it wasn't the best throw, but there was air under it. A good WR probably at least touches the damn ball.

Who's fault is what? The WR room is weak because of beane, but also a lot because diggs forced his way out. He was moved in April, and free agency was already mostly taken up. I suppose they could have signed beckham... but he's an injury prone player in his 30s. The defense held a top notch offense to 23 even with a blown coverage TD, and missing Milano, TJ, Miller, Oliver, and Rapp. I think there were issues with the offensive gameplan, and i think the roster is somewhat flawed in its construction offensively. At the same time, allen missed.. a ton of throws.

It's the difference in a 40 and football speed. He slows down trying to switch shoulders and loses track, he also looked way late after he beat the coverage. The ball shouldn't already be in the air when you're trying to track it there.

I thought it was the right move tbh. If you can't move the ball there the timeouts won't matter. The goal is a first down so you can kneel for OT. I had no faith in martin punting it well enough to keep them out of range, without some kind of penalty or something. Yeah, something short, some kind of crosser that is a high % completion to get you space out of the end zone... and force them to burn a timeout and open up the ability to run the ball on 2nd and 3rd down to get the 1st. Once you go incomplete you have to pass, and allen was just so bad throwing beyond the sticks.

I'm not concerned about his targets being dispersed, its more who he's looking to on a crucial 3rd down.

Shakir out - Samuel invisible - Hollins Hollinsing - MVS MVSing... If there were a time for a breakout, its this game.

Sounds like he's been in the slot a fair amount so... potentially cam lewis.

28 tight ends have more than 10 targets this year, he is just outside the top 10 in total targets with 18. There's only like 20 TE's with even 100 yards receiving this season through 4 games. The position is a gaping hole in fantasy because of the lack of production, and considering he's only played about 62% of the snaps this year - he's been an impact player, even without a major breakout game.

Season just started but the Hollins and MVS catch rates are atrocious. Both sub 40 percent, and Hollins already has 11 targets. I just don't know how sustainable it is to keep using Hollins, when the 3 players you listed have fewer snaps (i know there's been some wonky 2nd half splits because of blowouts). Just play the best players! I don't know why this is so difficult at times. Not sure if Samuels hurt or what, but he needs to get up to speed quickly because its absolutely stupid that he's being considerably out snapped by Hollins and MVS.

Samuel shouldn't have pitched it imo. Just felt like the lineman hit the mesh point where the pitch or handoff is supposed to occur, so keep or pitch he's following the ball, and pitching just exposes you to a turnover which happened.

Timelines kind of important. Kincaid was not a member of the team at the time of the extension. He's 13th in the NFL AAV at the position. He's closer in pay to Noah Grey and Josh oliver than he is to kelce kittle and andrews. He also re-worked his deal going into this season, and there are now incentives for playing time, receptions, yards, and TDs - as well as base salary guarantees. Knox had a good year in 2022. 3rd on team in yards and targets, and had more yards than the running backs on fewer targets. He was coming off a season where he had 9 TDs, and it made sense at the time to give a player with a growing role a raise - also signaled that davis was fully on the outs. Kincaid fell to the point that buffalo wanted to snag him, and buffalo liked the idea of a move TE to pair with an inline guy. He spent most of last year either playing hurt or on IR, so not really his best season and its year 1 of when the extension actually kicked in. End of the day... He's overpaid in the sense that a lot of the role he was paid to occupy is now falling to kincaid. He's still playing more than half of snaps, he's still blocking, just not seeing a ton of targets. And thats fine. He's depth if kincaid were to miss time, he's still a good red zone weapon, he's a physical player with the ball in his hands, and he blocks well (which is literally like half the position). Guy has scored 28 TDs in his career here and everyone wants to write him off as trash because of kincaid. His original role was taken, he has a new role regardless of his paycheck and he's likely here at least 1 more season after this one.