Bleeding Bills Blue

Bend but don't break has been around forever - the tightness of the red zone, a penalty or sack can derail the entire drive, and it forces an offense out of their game scripts.

I really like watching Maxx Crosby play.

I remember when this first started to become popular 2 seasons ago, and allen wasn't having his best year. Then they just doubled down and threw the ball even deeper and it started to work. I don't blame coaches for saying - I'm sick of these big chunk plays on deep overs below my single high safety. More than half of QBs in the NFL now are mobile so man coverage can sometimes mean covering for like 2 routes per play, not to mention man coverage exposes you to QB runs. 2 deep safeties lets me keep eyes on the QB, but forces you to tackle and exposes you on the boundaries. I don't hate it because Allen has shown he can be patient, and is taking the free alerts based off the opposition alignment. So far anyway, the free alert plays are generating like 8 yards a play and no one (diggs) has been dropping them consistently. He also has the arm strength to drive into tight windows, and the eyes to manipulate them.

Coaches could probably yell them out from the sideline.

No, but there also isn't a successful ohio state QB in the NFL... ever.

It's not like Ohio state had been churning them out either.

Yeah, i look at it similarly. Backup Running backs make slightly more than davis on his rookie deal, including Ty Johnson. The 2nd tier after the top 10 is a lot of older backs and flawed players who still make more than the rookie (3-4x AAV). So if you can get comparative production for cheaper it's probably a good use of draft capital. Having extra picks in 2023 made it easier to justify pick usage at RB as well.

And i hate the chiefs, but i love watching this guy play.

He sure beat them... with the 3 takeaways and forcing indy to 2-9 on 3rd downs. Every game is different. But holding a team to 3 points through 58 minutes is a pretty big recipe to win with any QB. Yeah, i think most teams are pretty screwed without their QB. If your backup and PS guys can help with film study, and scout team preparation for the defense? That's pretty much ideal. Anyone can win with a backup QB, just takes some stuff going right. Playing with a lead helps. Good defense is probably the biggest key - creating turnovers usually gives you some plus down and distances. But the coordinator also needs to call a good game.

Hunt on the other side too. Huge field flip. Holland forced Etienne to fumble at like the 2 yard line through the end zone. Hill had the long TD shortly after.

Hill took himself out on both of those INT plays too.

I don't judge a player on what they did 2 seasons ago when pressed into the lineup as a depth player. Bishop and Edwards missed camp, and didn't show enough to prove they should be starting. Hamlin is playing more underneath in the single high looks than Rapp fwiw as a "strong safety" but in the 2 high shell game they're basically the same position on either side. So far they've done a good job disguising who's doing what, but I'd be hard pressed to find a ton of film this season that shows Hamlin is a liability. He isn't missing tackles, getting beat deep, or looking confused.

Worthy's going to have to stay on the field and there will be some wrinkles along the way. Rice and kelce seem to be their primary cover 2 beaters, and they're content to run the ball. It'll come down to worthy making the most of the targets he gets down the field.

They've been doing it for a season now, so i assume his zone chops and ball skills aren't things that he excels in currently.

They had some effective stretch plays horizontally in the run game, they used motion to pin defenders out of the play, and tua took a number of checkdowns. But outside runs resulted in a number of no-gains and losses. Once you're behind the chains, you're less likely to toss that checkdown and thats where mistakes were made.

Yeah, seems like he chunked it on some squishy grass. I'm not sure thats going to be some major mental hurdle that he can't overcome. His XPs and other FG were all fine.

I'd have to rewatch it, did his plant foot slip a little? Did he chunk it in the grass? Something had to have gone pretty wrong for him to miss it that bad. Field conditions were pretty poor on the night.

Thats a seriously ugly chart. 3/15 for like 60 yards with 2 INTs on throws 10 yards beyond the LOS is... bad.

And for people asking about Elam - its a different animal. No sideline boundaries, lots of zone looks, and you have to tackle as much as attack the catch point. They know Williams would be a player they would target on 3rd downs. Put more speed and ball skills out there and teams are more likely to go underneath and force you to tackle. The first pick i thought for sure they were throwing short of the sticks with that defensive alignment, and tua threw a deeper throw before his guy turned his head. It's a timing issue, but turnovers are created when you play into the defenses hands like that.

Supposedly smoot was someone they were using in that sub package as well, so should be interesting to see him when he returns.

Ingram's playing the poyer role from last year. Sub-package where they take williams off, and previously would rotate him with Rapp and have poyer fill in underneath. Basically a dime look on 3rd downs. The team is in a roster transition - and they're giving guys who have been here in camp, on the PS, etc. a chance to play. Honestly, outside of a few jitters here and there they've settled in and played some good ball.

One team showed up on the road with a run game, a mean offensive line, and a physical defense. The other team showed up.

It's a pick play (not necessarily illegal) - which is the perfect call in a 0 blitz scenario. You left your linebacker in man coverage with cook, no safety help, and he was caught in the wash. Nobody ran him over, and the WRs looked at the QB. You basically left it to the refs to bail you out of a poor call coming out of a timeout. Allen said after the game, we called timeout and i said "they're going 0 blitz". It looked to me like it was thrown to the outside shoulder and MVS looked inside after ball was in the air. Right read since it looked like he was behind the defender in a cover 3, but inside shoulder invites another player to the party.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202409120mia.htm#all_vis_snap_counts

We only ran 45 plays and gained about 5.5 Yards per play. Thats just outside the top 10 for the league last year in a per play average. The thing i liked is how much of what they did was just taking what they gave. Play 2 high off coverage? Ball is out to kincaid immediately for what felt like 8 yards per clip. They had no pass rush without a blitz, and they don't have the players capable of locking buffalo up in man. Buffalo's physicality just overwhelmed their defense. Consider this - 59 yards in the 2nd half for the bills offense, they passed 6x for 31 yards and just ran right into 8/9 man boxes. Miami ran 73 plays and gained 4.8 yards per play, which would've ranked 28th. Factor in losing turnover battle by 3, 1/5 on 4th down, and penalties - they were just... an absolute mess on offense. They usually play far better at home because they can use jet motion to manipulate the defense more effectively, and they definitely stressed buffalo horizontally, but they couldn't keep the edge in the 2nd half. You also invite more offensive penalties due to formation issues and just generally your offensive line has to get outside and its a lot easier to get caught. After the pick 6 i knew it was going to be the same few plays in different formations. The ability to open it up is there, but they needed to make it two scores before I consider changing much of what I'm doing.