Bleeding Bills Blue

To me i think there's some kind of injury going on. On that just overthrown deep post - he literally trotted right off the field. That isn't the coaching staff taking him out, thats him taking himself off.

The shanahan tree likes to attack the middle of the field in those 2 high looks. Baltimore's been switching the over/under between the corner and safety taking away the throw at the time the QBs want to make it. Safety rolls under like a robber, and the corner plays behind like the cover 2 safety. The rest of it comes down to tackling on the underneath stuff, and stifling their run game. It's not always "knowing what they're doing", and comes down to putting them into passing situations.

The tells are in the RPOs. If the LB does this - the QB will do this. Its why we throw to the boundary so much, the defense wants us to do it. Miami runs a fair amount of these so they're likely doing the same thing - defense would rather the ball go to a short throw in the boundary than hill or diggs over the middle or something. There's usually a run element there too but that linebacker can still hit their run fit if they do it right.

They have a ton of speed at WR, and an absolute wagon of a TE. Those types of players are always going to draw holds. They also have a solid offensive line, which allows mahomes to spend more time in the pocket where defensive holding occurs.

No matter what happens with Tre - you can't keep him at the dollars he's currently at. If he excels here or elsewhere, it will not be at that contract.

There are like 3 defenses that hold constantly that are always on TV - KC, Philly, and SF. They complain the most on all the calls too. Slay, sneed, ward probably hold on almost every play. Both of the guys on the Jets are pretty obnoxious with their holding too.

I feel like every time sherfield is targeted down the field, he is interfered with and they don't call anything.

I mean... I don't know what the madden cover athlete and face of gillette make - but I'd imagine its quite a bit. I don't think he's hurting for cash.

Henry is in a walk year too. Jags are banged up. I honestly have a feeling on the steelers too.. Even backup ravens... I assumed as such when he didn't throw in the walkthrough. They're not gonna. I feel like the ravens and titans are starting the better QBs in these games. That always gives you a shot.

49ers did lose 3 straight at one point this season.

I don't hate that 3x1 play boundary alert - i just don't know that it needs to be diggs there. Shakir or Kincaid would work.

He is targeted a lot on first down - so his 1st down numbers would potentially be lower as he'd need at least 10 yards on a catch to get a 1st down.

They are not good on the road though. That has to factor in - a 2 seed could potentially play 3 home games on the way to a super bowl.

It tends to fall that way - but if you have some guy that you had as a top 15 pick and its late in the first - i don't know that i care that much unless he's a QB. If we can get a valuable player at WR/DE/DT/CB/OT that you project as a pro-bowl caliber player and a star, you should get that player.

I think Diggs can and will move into a primarily slot WR role and do quite well into his 30s.

I'm usually a BPA type - stick to your board. There are obviously limits - I don't think RBs, TEs, OG's, Safeties, and LBs are usually worth 1st round picks unless they are players you project as all-pro's. Value you can get on QB/WR/DE/DT/CB/OT 5yr rookie deals is too good to pass up since those are the most expensive positions to fill.

Free agency will fill out some holes. I think with limited budget and our losing so many veteran contributors - i expect them to add 2 safeties in free agency. I'd also think DQ comes back. It's probably the time to stop putting the same band back together though - so i don't expect lawson, phillips, hyde, poyer, and probably tre to return. Douglas makes it a lot easier to lose tre. Defensive line is expensive, even 1T guys are getting paid lately. But after the initial blitz there you can find some value (thats how we ended up with Floyd).

Harrison, Nabers, Odunze are the 3 that most mock drafts indicate will be the first 3 off the board, and are the consensus best prospects. Obviously that doesn't mean that they'll be the best players, but they are the Chase/Waddle/Smith group at the top of the class.

I think it'd more likely be a DE than a safety in the first. I can't see any of the top 3 WRs falling to Buffalo, and the drop off to the next group is pretty large. One of the top 5 DE's seems more realistic.

Given every chance for playing time Johnston has been outplayed by Palmer. Not a good look, even if you're just a rookie.

I remember all the mocks had lamb/jeudy/jefferson/ruggs in the top 10-15. Jags didn't get a WR. Jets didn't get a WR. Giants didn't get a WR. Lions didn't get a WR. 49ers waited even though they could've had Lamb. Whatever happened between picks 18 and 21. It just fell really weird that year. Most of us expected maybe Aiyuk, and talked ourselves into higgins at 22. You trade the first, you get your guy - you give allen a true number 1. Minnesota doesn't have to pay him, and they ended up getting the 5th off the board when most of us expected something like 7th.

They do need to get a bit younger on that side of the ball. Only a few starters on rookie deals going into 2024- Benford, Bernard, Rousseau. You have Williams and Elam there for depth. On offense - Kincaid, Torrence, Brown, Cook, Shakir are all on rookie deals and play pretty important roles.

2017 - Corey Davis (bust), Mike Williams, Ross (bust) - 66% 2018 - DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley - 0% 2019 - Hollywood Brown (not a bust, but 1 1000 yard season in 5 isn't leaping off the page), Nkeal Harry - BUST - 50% 2020 - Ruggs (bust), Jeudy (0 1000 yard seasons, i'm leaning bust), Lamb, Reagor (Bust), Jefferson, Aiyuk. 3/6 - 50% 2021 - Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney (Bust), Bateman (bust) - 2/5 - 40% 2022 - Too early to tell fully - but seems like a solid class. London, Burks, Dotson all don't have QBs, and Williams is not getting snaps. Olave and Wilson look solid even without good QBs.

I feel like a lot of the experts felt jefferson's professional success would end up with him playing primarily in the slot. Teams don't usually prioritize that in the first round. That his 4.4 40 time didn't really reflect his play speed accurately, and that he played smaller than his size. The experts were wrong. We'll never know what Ruggs was capable of, but he had the measurables that GM's drool over. Jeudy felt "safe", but his concentration drops have been an issue. Lamb felt like the home run swing in the first, even if he didn't test that well - Him not being the first off the board that year was shocking. And reagor felt like the deep threat. Aiyuk, Higgins, Pittman all were there too, albeit with their own wrinkles - Aiyuk didn't have a ton of impressive film, Higgins was considered raw route running, Pittman got the "possession receiver" label etc.

Considering the best WR from the 2023 class was a 5th round pick, i don't know that you need to double dip in the first 2 rounds. There wouldn't be enough snaps for a 2nd round player between having to split time with 1st round WR, Shakir, Kincaid, and Knox. Free agency will change a bunch of factors - but Buffalo appears to be set at QB1 - RB1 - The rest can be depth vets, 6th round or later, or UDFA's WR1 - Assume Diggs is back, i don't really know why he'd want to leave other than coaching. He doesn't get trade control (could end up on the panthers or something), is already on a contender, 8th in the league in targets. WR2 - No one on roster that I'd have a ton of faith in. Would like some serious wheels. Shorter projects more in that Sherfield role than anything else to me. WR3 - Shakir TE1/2 - Both locked in OT - Both locked in OG - Both locked in C - Bates probably steps in if morse is a cap casualty - they could also look to add here in the draft with an OG/C player Defensively its just... a mess. I assume a lot gets figured out around free agency. DQ being brought back would go a long way. I don't see how they can play much in the pass rushing FA pool with limited resources, but we said that last year and ended up with Floyd. LB looks fairly set with a solid depth piece behind the starters. Corner with or without tre is fairly solid. S is another huge ?. DE - Rousseau Johnathan Miller DT - Oliver LB - Milano, Bernard, Williams CB - Douglas, White (potential Cap casualty), Johnson, Benford, Elam, Neal S - Poyer (also potential cap casualty)