Bleeding Bills Blue

I'd be shocked if Dane Jackson made the final roster - I'd say him, lewis, ingram, hardy are all PS candidates. As bad as tre was last year at times, and even his last season here... dane jackson was bruuuutal

Boettger was starting to trend up in 2021, then he tore his achilles and i don't think he played much after that, by the time he was healthy they had brought in torrence, mcgovern, and edwards. I always saw Bates as a Center, but they moved him around a bunch and then overpaid him. The pick they traded him for ended up going back and forth like 4x between buffalo and chicago which is kinda fun:

He's had 9+ sacks 4x in his career, i'm sure someone gives him another contract before he's sitting on a practice squad.

This isn't true though - Cook's making about 3x what any of them make this year.

Right - but that's kind of the point. Would the team be better off spending more on OL or WR than running back? With Saquan - they had 1874 rushing yards and a 4.1 YPC average Without Saquan - they had 1783 rushing yards and a 4.2 YPC average

I'm not entirely sure if you can - rookie deals are weird, especially non 1st round picks. I know he is in year 4, so he is eligible to negotiate an extension - but I don't know how much they can do to the current deal without an extension.

If you structure it like philly you can add another void year every year he plays here. so it starts as a 4yr deal with 1 void year. Then each year the option bonus triggers you spread the cap hit over 4 years again. You end up with a dead money hit the year he leaves, but it keeps the cap hits low while they're here. I'm not sure i love that model for a back though, as they don't play usually play well into their 30s so you're almost guaranteed to see a big dead money number vs. say a lineman who you can extend again to keep the void money as bonus and not load as much of it into a single season.

I don't think a holdout is going to occur while he's on his rookie deal. If he were tagged maybe, but he really hasn't earned very much money yet. His salary went up considerably this year, but none of it is guaranteed and he won't get it until they start playing the games. On a holdout on a rookie deal we can reduce or dismiss his fines if he ends up showing up, or getting a new deal.

Depends how you feel about anderson, grable, clayton, and lundt. You also have Torrence coming up on free agency in 2027.

He went from 962 yards and a 3.9 YPC to 2005 and a 5.8 YPC average. 3 years before he had 593 and a 3.7 YPC average. I don't know how you can say its "false". Swift went from 1049 and 4.6 YPC with philly, to 959 and 3.8 YPC after leaving.

I think i can provide a few reasons: 1 - I think the rate of injury factors into it considerably - afaik its one of the highest injury rates by position. You want the money you spend to be on the field not in the trainers room. CMC is a good example here. 2 - How much of it is coaching and offensive line? Barkley was pretty crappy in NY and then amazing in Philly. How much of that goes to him vs. better coaching and offensive line? 3 - The fluctuation between good seasons and bad also is a factor. Mostert is a good example. 4 - Age and injury drop-off. These can sometimes seem like absolute cliff dive drop-offs. 5 - Bad contracts that have been given out. Bell comes to mind. CMC. Gurley. Zeke.

I don't disagree with anything you're saying - I looked at trading for CMC the same way. Him playing more is what gets him all the love and fantasy accolades, but in a single game in the playoffs, how much better is he than the sum of other pieces? Like can I remake him with a cheap slot WR, a receiving back, and another back. More usage during the season and on 3rd downs for Cook can get him more stats to justify the investment, but it increases the injury risk. Would we have beaten the bengals if they make that same CMC trade the 49ers did? I felt like our inability to execute in that game had more to do with the offensive lines inability to handle Hill and Reader, moreso than the backs (and the defenses inability to apply any type of pressure to the bengals).

I assumed cousins would be traded this offseason when they drafted penix last year. I think the no-trade clause was to make sure he didn't end up on the browns or the jets. The remainder of his contract is basically 1yr 27.5M, with a 10M dead hit roster bonus that triggered in 2025 and is paid in 2026. They'd have the option to keep him for 2026 at 1yr 45M, with nothing else guaranteed you could easily convert and reduce the 2026 cap hit to spread money into 2027. I personally think it'd be preferable to rodgers if the trade compensation is reasonable. He's not a headcase like rodgers, is 5 years younger, and they even have had similar injuries.

My only issue with paying him that much is that he's a part-time player. His blocking isn't good enough to play on third downs, so he loses a bit of that value when you have to use a combination of other players to make up for that gap. Johnson for blocking, and they used samuel from time to time for sub package stuff where he has flexibility to line up in the backfield or outside. He's a good receiver for the most part (he had some drop issues his first 2 years), and he cleaned up the fumbling from 2024, so he still appears to be an ascending player who hasn't hit his ceiling yet.

RB to me always comes down to one-game contributions imo, and big play ability. Cook showed both of those last year. With the season on the line in a single game I think most of us would rather have Cook taking the majority of carries. Over a full season with the same blocking and carries i don't think you'd see a major difference in production between Cook and Davis/Johnson/whomever. Maybe a few of the bigger pops aren't as big, or they don't have the same ability to bounce to the edge, but if we're talking about .4 yards per carry (4.9 to 4.5 say) though that's like 80 yards on the year with his carry load. You can make that yardage up with a better punter. As for the "few million dollars" - if he's replaced with a draft pick or cheaper free agent it could be closer to like 12M - which this season was something like Joey Bosa. Again though, this creates that issue of who u would rather give the ball to in a big game.

Also keeps allen healthy (ish... his playing style tends to lead to hits)

Since when? Most people wanted knox gone pre-extension simply because of his unreliable hands.

I have 0 interest in players that can't make the giants.

Take 90 to camp though and it would be the league minimum, he's also at least somewhat familiar with Brady and the offensive coaching staff. If you bring him to camp and palmer or samuel gets hit with a major injury, you're much more plugged in and prepared. If you come out of camp healthy, you can dump him without real repercussions. If nobody wants him and he clears waivers, you can plug him on the PS. If he's interested in a return i'd probably kick the tires and see how his injury recovery is.

Replacing picket got them from 25th in yards to 23rd, and 28th in points to 16th. So that sort of worked, but even with a defense that was on the edge of top 10, they only outscored opponents by 33 points, after being outscored the previous 3 seasons (and making the playoffs twice). And how much of that was having a kicker who went 13/15 from 50+? They also haven't won a playoff game since 2016.

He played pretty poorly in their playoff game last year. His sack rate went up (kind of a hallmark of a roman offense), turnover rate was down (another hallmark of the roman offense). They ran the ball a lot more, and a lot more effectively than any other Herbert led offense. I think they got away from all the checking down he did with ekeler and allen, but it's that same Roman offense that doesn't really attack the middle of the field.

I'd say Samuel is more likely to get snaps outside, but buffalo does a lot of 3x1 stuff so you can mix moore, shakir, and kincaid in sets with Palmer, Coleman, and Samuel.

His playing time will likely go down here , but it's not as if post-draft WR opportunities are plentiful either. Lockett signed right before the draft, but the amount of jobs goes down significantly post-draft. Then factoring in which of the potential available jobs are not... teams like the jets and browns, and what you might be able to even carve out as a role - there really weren't a lot of spots for him.

I just don't think he'd get the snaps and targets necessary to get 1000 yards without injuries to other players who will be getting slot target opportunities. An injury to palmer for example boosts everyones snaps, but i'd still assume they give more of those snaps to samuel, shakir, and kincaid.

I'd say if that happened it likely signals that Kincaid, shakir, or both missed significant time imo.