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ny33

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Everything posted by ny33

  1. As they should. You were/are far better off drafting Allen for a dollar than a Mahomes for 25+.
  2. Allen likes Daboll, and was much better under his watch. That’s reason enough to keep the guy around for at least another year. He’s not perfect, but disruptive change is worse.
  3. All that talent at skill positions and on D is meaningless when you have a declining statue like Rivers behind that o-line. Wilson is mobile and talented enough to be productive behind a horrible line, but a pocket passer without athleticism isn’t going to get it done without 5 solid blockers.
  4. His deep ball was certainly better his rookie year, and that’s encouraging; given his broad, largely sustained; and continual improvement over the course of his career, it’s apparent that he has the drive and mental makeup to be successful in the league. Fixing something that worked is much more feasible and likely than it is for QBs to shore up major flaws as Josh has been able to. Most players with tremendous physical gifts, including early first round picks, coast on their physical ability and neglect the mental aspects of the game that separate QBs like Brady- famously underwhelming athletically dating to his combine- from guys like Stafford, Bortles or Winston who have the prototypical physical makeup and skills. It’s very, very rare to see a player improve to the degree Josh did from year one to two, and even rarer for a QB to make vast strides in his weak points (whereas most simply get used to the speed of the game and are most improved through better leveraging their strengths). It’s also clear that he was far more confident and successful with his deep ball and overall game when Foster has his six game breakout, whereas the historically bad receiving corps (one of the least talented/disciplined/productive in NFL history) prior to his emergence didn’t help his confidence. Beane has largely shown that he can address the inexcusably poor receiving corps and offensive line that we threw a green rookie from Wyoming into the fire with. Early experiences heavily shape QBs, and most teams prefer to sit talented, but inexperienced, QBs for at least a year with a high and immediate success rate (Mahomes, Rodgers, etc., and Garoppolo is another example of the benefits of adjusting to the league from the bench behind legendary QBs like Favre/Brady or diligent, cerebral average starters like Alex Smith). David Carr never had a shot behind an expansion roster line, and Luck’s career was shortened by his early career abuse behind a porous line. The (9!) new starters other than Dawkins have taken the surrounding talent level from the bottom of the league to middling, but Beane’s player evaluation (draft/free agent value) looks to be better than the majority of teams’ GMs. It’s particularly encouraging to see the early success rate on mid to late picks (across a small sample size and early in their careers), as the best GMs manage far higher success rates with Day 3 picks (round 1 evaluation is more of a crapshoot given that most selections have some elite traits worthy of the investment. Given the vastly improved average roster quality, guys like Sweeney and Johnson already appear to be outperforming their draft slots in making a talented and deep roster (and showing some ability in flashes worthy of further in-game evaluation). It shouldn’t be hard to add a starting caliber outside wide receiver and 2nd/3rd RB between our draft capital/limited needs and free agency. Brown is good enough for every team to be an every-down starter, and going from Zay Jones and Isiah McKenzie (whom I think is valuable and rosterable as a rotational situational player but has no business starting on the outside to another threat will open up Brown more often deep and give Josh another downfield that should open up his game and boost his confidence. Next year is going to be exciting.
  5. Shenault should be a useful player on a team with a number of skill position threats, but I’m not sure he can be what we need across from Brown on the outside. We have guys who can be assets in gadget/backup roles like McKenzie, but Allen needs another quality outside receiver. I don’t necessarily think that we “need” a physical “prototype” in the Hopkins/Jones/Evans mold- another speed/skill/route-running threat like Brown would probably have the same impact, especially if Knox steps up and we add another quality RB who can catch. Shenault is a much better prospect than Zay Jones was, but I think drafting him would be a similar mistake; hindsight is 20/20, but it was obvious that the team should have taken a receiver suited for the sidelines and deep routes instead of a volume/gadget player with no elite skills. Jones (as evaluated) can be useful to a team with solid outside receivers or a quick release offense like NE’s where every eligible receiver can work under the seams and force narrower coverage. He was never going to succeed as a primary downfield target, and only Foster’s emergence made the team respect our deep ball at all Josh’s rookie year. If teams only have to respect Brown’s downfield threat/ability to run a versatile route tree, we can’t take advantage of Josh at his best (he is most effective when receivers get open early and across the field, and is at his worst when he has to throw into tight man coverage windows and feels more comfortable resorting to a scramble (either to run or with a desperate off-balance heave downfield). He’s much more dangerous if defenses have to account for his physical ability and play contain at the expense of being able to blanket his safety nets (when he locks onto Beasley or Knox against the blitz) and have a safety deep against Brown. Between Foster’s potential and an early round wideout or two, I am pretty confident that the team can field a dangerous offense next year that maximizes Josh’s elite ability and allows him to throw deep with confidence.
  6. I was hoping for 49ers-Titans, and would have loved to see Ryan Tannehill vs. an ex-Patriot (especially with Brady looking done, though they wouldn’t have been able to keep Jimmy G in FA) in the Super Bowl. Seeing guys who throw for 100 yards and win multiple playoff games is refreshing, and an especially satisfying rebuttal to the clowns obsessed with the fact that Allen has never thrown for 300 yards. Mahomes and that offense are awesome to watch, but it would have been incredible to see smashmouth football from teams with rookies as their best wideouts, and I love seeing what a change of scenery can do for QBs and hidden gems like Mostert who had to scrap for a chance to even make a roster.
  7. He also had one of the worst WR corps in NFL history and a bottom-five offensive line. It’s unbelievable that we threw him into the fire with that offense around him, but at least last offseason’s OL and WR signings made it clear that Beane recognized what Allen needs to succeed (and has done a very good job with regards to FA value/draft hits). Having a roster that is generally above-average at every position + quality depth puts us in a position for elite players to add maximum value, unlike the Whaley years where elite talents like Watkins and Gilmore were just talented players on middling teams instead of pieces that can take a good unit to elite. SF and Tennessee were able to win with their QBs throwing for c. 100 yards, despite the concept that you need gunslingers to compete in today’s league, because they have few weaknesses and versatile, deep rosters that improved dramatically with the additions or emergence of a handful of players (Bosa is outstanding, but is so much more dangerous with the solid line around him, and Sanders/Samuel turned an ok offense with a good line and quality set of running backs into an efficient and versatile unit). Meanwhile, KC has 2 elite WR talents backed up by talent with speed to burn, making it so difficult for defenses to contain the best QB in the league and a few decent RBs, and can keep their skill position players fresher than the defenses thanks to the depth. A poor defense with elite, physical rushers in Jones and Clark can put on the pressure and be aggressive in trying to get the ball back into the hands of Mahomes as quickly as possible, forcing the opponent to try to keep up with their pace and big-play ability in a shootout.
  8. We also need to add some CB depth, especially given that our base defense is a nickel, and a replacement for Alexander (will be interesting to see if we go for another LB with range and coverage skills like Milano so that we can defend against the run better than from the nickel). An elite pass rusher makes a difference to any team, but I think our defense places nearly as much value on having a solid CB rotation (just as we do on the DL) so that injuries are less impactful and starters stay fresh. I would guess that we go for a WR/RB/RT first, but wouldn’t be surprised if we take a corner or LB in the 2nd/3rd and before a rusher. If Beane thinks we have the space for Yannick + resigning our own guys this year and going forward, I agree that he’s worth the money (though I would rather spend the money on Cooper if he’s available and interested). Keeping the depth at DE (resigning Shaq) and getting a reliable RT /another starting-caliber wideout would be more impactful/likely, in my opinion. Allen needs to have the tools and protection to be able to play to his and this team’s potential and give us the ability to keep up in a shootout and not play down to the level of inferior teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, or Jets.
  9. I don’t understand why so many people say we have “2 legit NFL ones right now.” There’s obviously a lot of value in having a deep range of threats at WR (Kansas City is the prime example of how having 4+ speed/skilll guys, including elite and near-elite starters in Hill and Watkins, is more valuable than a “prototype” WR#1 like Thomas/Hopkins alone, especially with a running threat like Mahomes). McKenzie and Williams are better than most teams’ 4th/5th options, and Foster was very, very good over six games last year (decent sample size), and the coaches clearly believe that he has a chance to get back to that level. We obviously need a better starter across from Brown, but I think we have an above-average group if Beane finds a starting-caliber outside receiver. McKenzie isn’t good enough for that role, but we are in pretty good shape if the young guys with upside/versatility are our 4th/5th/6th options at the position. I’m optimistic that they’ll prioritize the position after fielding one of the worst WR corps ever last year and doing Allen no favors, and Brown is a starter on any team/a coup at his price, while Beasley is a solid third option on pretty much every roster. This roster is solid from the inside out, and we will be a real threat with even a solid outside starter and another RB or two, which should be easy to address.
  10. You’re one of the posters I respect the most on the board, so I’m surprised to see your mixed reaction to Singletary. I think it’s reasonable to argue that RBs are better taken in volume in the mid-to-late rounds, or that the Bills should have prioritized other positions (Allen would benefit more than most from a set of 3+ receiving threats, as he plays best when he goes through the progressions and doesn’t lock on to Beasley etc.) But Singletary was outstanding relative to other players at his position and for his draft slot. He has some work to do on his blocking (drastically under appreciated skill for RBs by most fans) and doesn’t have the same receiving versatility as, say, Hunt or Kamara, but he did most things at a top quartile level. The fumbles are a concern, but I’m thrilled with the pick and look forward to seeing what the offense can do if Beane continues to improve what was one of the worst offensive rosters in NFL history (was absurd to have a lazy and washed up Kelvin Benjamin as our #1 receiver along with Zay Jones). I expect that Beane will hit on 1-2 selections at WR/RB (would like to see the team draft 3-4 between the two positions, depending on how they evaluate Foster and Williams), and there should be little room for excuses next year if the offense doesn’t play to at least an average level. Gore might have had some value as a mentor/stabilizing force, but one of my biggest concerns with coaching this year was that he continued to have a sizable role while regressing over the course of the season, and it’s hard to justify not working Yeldon in more as Gore fell off. Having 2+ RBs, especially if they can catch, is so critical in today’s league, and Singletary was more impactful than Jacobs in the receiving game. I love the culture of this team, and have “bought in” to seeing how valuing work ethic/desire to win/leadership can be material, but the staff is far too reticent to bench or cut veterans like Gore, Smith (took far too long to be benched for his penalties) and overvalues special teams on the active roster at the expense of seeing what players like Williams and Yeldon could add to the offense.
  11. I think Leslie Frazier will get a HC job, and would be surprised if Lorax doesn’t at least get a look as a LB coach here or on that team.
  12. It seemed absurd for Tre to lose DROY to Lattimore, but there is as strong of a case for Gilmore to get DPOY. We would probably save a million+ a year if Tre doesn’t have the awards on his resumé when we negotiate his extension. I hope Beane has been spending a lot of time planning on how to best budget for and time extensions for guys like Tre, Milano, Edmunds, and Dawkins, especially if Josh keeps getting better at a rapid pace. We are lucky that he has a great eye for veteran FA deals at team-friendly rates and a good draft track record, as we are probably going to lose 1-2 of the rookie contract guys on defense if Josh plays really well next year.
  13. Offensive line is a hard position for fans/casual viewers to gauge individual performance, as people naturally track the QB and skill position players. O-linemen generally only standout from negatives (penalties/getting beaten early), and statistics make it difficult to get a sense of individual outperformance. It looks like Ford has adjusted to the NFL somewhat better than early in his rookie season, and it looks like the team can be cautiously optimistic that we will not to have to invest early resources on OT this coming draft. It is fairly simple from a visual, statistical and media standpoint to see how Knox and especially Singletary benchmark vs. their draft class (very well, especially given draft positions), but I have little idea as to how the rookie OTs on other teams have looked. Jonah Williams has been injured, of course, but am curious as to how guys like Dillard have been playing, in case any of you knows of some articles that have looked at the rookie OT/OL class. Thank you, and Merry Christmas
  14. Fair or not, a veteran like Gilmore, with a history of elite play, is more likely to get the nod than someone on his rookie contract like White if both have strong cases for the award. Awards in most professional sports often go to the more experienced player in a toss-up scenario. Some writers will also prioritize the player on a team with a better record, which is particularly moronic in Cy Young voting (deGrom)
  15. If we lose to the Pats, give Yeldon 30 carries vs. the Jets and the balance to Perry. Have Foster and Duke take the majority of snaps with Sweeney, etc.
  16. Agree- the best thing to do would have been to show totals through 1-8 and 9-12 for the others.
  17. Prices in Greenwich, Alpine (very popular with athletes) are far lower than 2008, at least. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-04-18/mansions-pile-up-in-greenwich-as-buyers-turn-to-smaller-homes https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.greenwichtime.com/news/amp/CEO-who-moved-to-Fla-takes-jab-at-Greenwich-9222734.php
  18. What a moronic take. In many parts of the country, including the NYC metropolitan area, houses stay on the market for years and are selling for less than they did in even the early 2000s (especially the wealthy enclaves of Bergen, Fairfield, and Westchester counties) due to carrying costs and people’s preference for urban areas. Meanwhile, apartments in areas like Williamsburg, Astoria, downtown Manhattan, and Greenpoint have tripled or more in price per square foot over the same period.
  19. Don’t think people realize just how good he was after coming back.
  20. He needs to do better on the long ball to be a difference-maker. But I think it’s much harder to improve the intermediate throws, footwork, and pocket presence, which he has shown continual improvement in. Once a one or two of them connect, he will feel more confident and natural in that part of his game. The red zone offense (1st in the league), progress in decision making, and his never-give-up mentality show that he can be special. How many 2nd-year QBs have succeeded with 9 new starters on offense?
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