ny33

Singletary's strong performance on a small sample size can't be compared to Wade's legendary first carry and his 48 yard reception. Vanilla preseason gameplans and a less aggressive, lower tempo game speed, in the interests of minimizing wear and tear/significant injuries, have little in common with a real NFL game and offer little other than some indication of players' physical conditions. Major mistakes (Yeldon's fumbles) are somewhat indicative of regular season play, but there's no comparing two big plays in a lax environment to Singletary's promising play so far. I think Beane cut McCoy primarily out of concern that Shady would take poorly to splitting carries with a 36-year-old and a rookie. Given what the team has shown in the standings and with regards to professionalism/team-first environment, we probably would have been substantially more dangerous with Shady in the mix. Money is never irrelevant, but there's no chance that the Pegulas valued the savings over a potential impact player; there had to have been concerns over fit in the split role/fundamental regression indicating that his play last season wasn't a fluke due to a rookie QB with a historically poor line and receiver/TE corps. As for the OP, I managed to convince a Pats friend of mine to give me 9 points (obviously 1-1.5 more than any book, but a wager with a friend, especially on a division game to stay undefeated, makes things even more interesting). This is the most promising team we've had in years, but the Pats have looked tremendous so far (Brady will always be Brady, but the defense looks elite after being weak 2-3 years ago). We have a chance if we harass Brady as we have under McDermott and win the turnover battle, but Josh needs to avoid the 3-5 "WTF were you thinking plays" that will lose you games (he's cut down substantially over time and is making major strides in throwing the ball away, just going down on a hit and protecting the ball, etc. that highlight his unusually rapid progress in fixing major mental flaws to his game).

Writers will always look for underreported subjects, no matter how trivial they may seem or how poorly researched they are. Silly question. Barkley’s probably around an average backup.

I think Hughes is clearly a top 15 pass rusher and arguably top 10. He has done well in our scheme in large part due to top-notch coverage, and I think that more physically gifted rushers like Clowney, Clark, or Garrett can more reliably get to the QB in a short field where QBs release the ball more quickly. The Bills also have a high rate of corner/safety rather than linebacker blitzes, which is much riskier in the red zone. Four or five man rushes will likely become more effective as Oliver develops and can get to the QB in 3 seconds more frequently. We also seem to struggle somewhat vs. 2 minute offenses without having an edge presence who can consistently win one-in-ones vs a spread set with no blocking TE or RB. Dalton was also pretty good with his timing and release in the second half, and Boyd ran some great routes. Red zone D is definitely one of the larger question marks for what seems to be a legitimately elite defense, along with some weakness vs. runs up the middle against high tempo offenses (the Pats thrive when teams leave some room in the middle to cover 2 RB sets with Michel and Burkhead/White and Edelman in the slot, as Brady is so good at finding a target underneath off the snap). The team did a decent job vs. Saquon, but I am more worried about how we will handle teams that can consistently get 6-7 yards from the slot or receiving RB and force linebackers and the line to play wider (Saints, Pats, Chargers). I think we are better equipped to control offenses like the Chiefs and Rams who frequently utilize 3 WR sets of deep ball threats from both outside receivers and go routes from the slot.

Anyone who wants to see a player get hurt to prove a point or out of spite that the Bills didn’t Mahomes needs some self-reflection. But Josh is probably going to keep taking some hard shots until he improves his blind side awareness and gets rid of the ball faster. Hopefully a full season under his belt helps him to make faster decisions (held the ball the longest last year), but right now he’s overexposing himself to injury and turnovers from loose blind side rushers if he keeps locking on to half the field or a single receiver. Was great to see him throw to Knox after evading the rush instead of just scrambling, and he’s doing a much better job of throwing the ball away instead of trying to use his physical gifts to extend the passing window by a few seconds. Every time someone misses an early block, especially from the blind side, I worry that he will get hurt trying to extend rather than just taking the sack.

Because we are really not that far from being a legit contender. This team has a lot of flaws, but if Allen keeps improving his decision making and protecting the ball, this team could be good enough to win a playoff game or two as early as this year. Barely beating bad teams highlights the flaws in ball security, pass blocking, QB decision making/reaction time and “time wasting” mentality to protect narrow leads. The QB and team have clearly shown progress over Josh’s 13 starts in shoring up flaws, and has competitors with playmaking ability behind an offensive line that is middle of the road (easily bottom 5 in 2017 and 2018). Benjamin , Clay, and a greener Zay Jones (who is disappointing, but has gone from a massive liability to the type of guy good teams are fine with as a 4th or so option). Brown has always been underrated and is a good route runner who can burn people; the TEs are promising; Beasley is always open. Adding a big target with good hands and speed who is a flexible downfield and medium yardage threat would make this offense more unpredictable than just having Brown our wide and Beasley just past the box.

I hope that Foster is largely invisible so far due to lingering injury (toe from the summer) rather than being in the doghouse for some reason. One of the most absurd takes from preseason was the idea that Foster was on the bubble. He was truly remarkable after being cut and played at the level of a top 20 receiver, of a true difference-maker. There could be more going on behind the scenes than we know as fans, but I’m skeptical that concerns over conditioning, work ethic etc. post his first offseason on an NFL salary (sadly common for players to put in minimal effort and uninspired play after getting their first contract or a huge pay bump on the second) would be concerning enough to be out of the plans. Brown was was a great signing and largely fits the same role as Foster, which is certainly a large factor in his reduced snaps and targets. But the Chiefs have made a living off of daring opponents to pick their poison against 4 quality burners, with Kelce serving as a physical mismatch threat and ability on contested balls. If Foster is prepared and healthy, would love to see him on the field over Zay more. Sending him and Brown deep with Beasley and the impressive rookie TEs underneath, + Singletary’s dual threat ability, should make for a legitimately difficult offense to plan against as Josh keeps up his rapid development. While the pass blocking has a lot of room for improvement, especially against blitzes and stacked weak side speed rushes, Josh needs to really work on working through his progressions and getting rid of the ball faster if there’s no play. When he starts locking in on Beasley in the face of heavy pressure or to get back into a rhythm, opposing defenses easily capitalize by swarming Beasley and daring Josh to throw downfield quickly. He does a great job of executing a diverse and unpredictable gameplan when he feels comfortable, but has to feel confident enough with downfield shots after a bad play or stalled series.

Apologies if you misconstrued my point for pessimism, as I wasn’t directing my thoughts at you, but rather a quoted post. I agree that it’s wonderful to be able to enjoy the season and progress game by game with a team that is vastly improved and has a clear plan, and the heart that will make a difference as Beane and co. continue to execute on a strong draft track record/conservative free agency mentality targeting underappreciated players like Brown and some of the o-line pickups instead of the splash approach taken by previous regimes. There’s far more to be excited than concerned about, and I’ll take the roller coaster of turnovers as long as the team keeps showing that it has rare heart on top of the promising core that Beane is building. I wouldn’t even be discouraged with a 7 win team if Allen keeps getting better game-by-game and focusing on shoring up his weaknesses (reflected visually and statistically on a clear upward trend). The 9-7 team of two years ago was a drastic overachiever, and that continued drive to win should mean a great future as the talent level improves. If Allen keeps up this development pace and gets some better pass protection + a physical receiver who can take advantage of the threat of our burners (Brown/Foster), promising set of tight ends/versatile running back, Allen’s rare agility/mobility and Beasley’s ability to be open underneath, we could be a legitimate championship contender as soon as two years from now.

Every team would take a 3-0 record with questionable performance over 0-3 or even 2-1 records but strong moral victories (refs screwing the Saints, rash of injuries and being competitive with backups etc.). But if you’re going to take such a narrow view, then the only stat that “matters” is a Super Bowl win. The wild card Giants were not a better team than the 16-0 Patriots, but they won the game that matters. Yet the Pats have won 3 Super Bowls since then and will be championship contenders as long as B&B can perform, despite the annual declarations of impending doom or decline. The Bills are 3-0. That’s awesome, and the team has shown rare drive & resilience, tremendous defensive play with few minor concerns and no major limitations, as well as an improved offense from the historically bad outfit of 2018. Most importantly, Allen is showing continuous improvement and some level of mitigation of his most concerning traits, which points to a potentially very bright future paired with his unique skill set. But the Bills have certainly not played at the same level as the Pats this year and have some major concerns (weakness to blitzes/2h adjustments, tendency to take the foot off the pedal instead of continuing to just execute with a lead, etc.). It’s just as small-minded to discount the 3-0 record vs. bad teams as it is to ignore the clear weaknesses just because we are undefeated early. The 2017 playoff team overachieved relative to the talent level, which is a credit to the team’s heart and coaching, but that team had a number of lucky turnover breaks etc. and poor decisions (benching Tyrod, game management), and the stars aligned for us week 17. We’re in a much better place now with regards to the quality of the roster/stability and experience of the management and coaching, but the team has a long way to go before we can be considered on par with the Pats this year and become a perennial contender. But we are closer than we have been in a long, long time and should enjoy the ride from game to game unlike the quintessentially mediocre teams of the past two decades.

Missed the start of the game thanks to NFL Game Pass, which I accidentally paid extortionate fees to twice (auto renew on an email I don’t use frequently), failing to load for about 20 minutes. When I saw the penalties on three consecutive plays as I compulsively refreshed the box score, I knew the football gods were in our favor. Game Pass magically worked after that drive (was using a European VPN address from start and have yet to identify a logical reason for the dysfunction). Despite having paid on both accounts as of August, and my account profiles reflecting this, it took 2 browser changes for their systems to recognize this. Monopolies at work..

Some people are rabid homers who live in a permanent state of belief that the Bills are eternally disrespected and consider a relative lack of national media coverage an intentional slight and revel in calling the end of the Patriots dynasty every year. If one considers the fact that both teams are 3-0 on the back of wins vs 0-3 teams to be an apple-to-apple comparison, I don’t know what to tell you. The 2019 Patriots are, of course, a unique entity, but it is patently absurd to say that a team that retains a 6-time Super Bowl winning QB/HC pair should be considered on par with a team that has had frequent turnover, no hope at QB for 20+ years, and a single playoff appearance this millennium. It’s also worth noting that the Pats have blown out their opponents, while the Bills have struggled to translate dominant early play into comfortable leads, and were fortunate to come back from 4 turnovers in a half largely due to exceptionally poor kicking. I say this as someone who places high value on the team and Allen’s resolve and belief to overcome a 16 point 4th-quarter deficit, self-belief and execution that is rare and valuable in the NFL. The Pats are probably the Super Bowl favorite and have shown no reason to believe that they are anything but a contender (defense has improved drastically since a weak point 2-3 years ago, esp. versus the run). The Bills are off to a great start, and I believe in the current regime and Allen, making games the most exciting and meaningful they’ve been in my lifetime (born early 90s; closest was mid-2000s with a strong defense in an era of mostly mediocre QB play where Trent Dilfer could win a Super Bowl and a historically good defense could legitimately compete with a subpar offense minimizing mistakes and taking advantage of incremental field position. In today’s NFL, there’s no chance the Bears defense could carry them to a Super Bowl with Trubisky’s level of play. Bills fans have a lot to be optimistic about, far more so than they have in decades. The long term outlook is promising, given the quality of defensive execution and roster management/draft track record and the short term is exciting enough that I believe we could win a playoff game this year. But equating the Bills’ start to the Patriots’ is absurd; we have a wide range of concerns (turnovers, complacency when ahead and attempting to “protect” marginal leads instead of confidently executing on a successful core gameplan. The inferiority complex that leads to not being able to impartially appreciate the quality of the Patriots organization year-after-year and just be happy for the reasons to be optimistic about “The Process” is petty and self-defeating.

I don't think we could ask for much more than what we've seen from Allen and believe we have someone special who puts in the necessary work to reach the highest level. I would much rather have a player who can make all of the throws and keeps getting better, with the occasional heart attack from an interception or poor ball protection, than what we've had since the ghost of Bledsoe (checkdowns, short throws into coverage, and moving the chains 5 or so yards on completions). I love that Josh and the offense prioritize a first down on 1st/2nd rather than setting up a 2-3 yard plunge on 3rd down as per the Bills of old. My main concern in the long term with his game is his lack of blind side awareness, which sets him up for excessive fumbles/injury, in part because he can take a hit and extend the play in the rare way that only Roethlisberger, Newton etc. can. His agility and recovery are world class, but I believe he will continue to have a high rate of fumbles if he doesn't go through more progressions and develop better pocket awareness.

Brown is a hell of a player, but we could certainly use a conventional "WR1" in the mold of a Hopkins or Evans. The Chiefs and Patriots are evidence that you can win with burners or Edelman types who run routes exceptionally well, but having someone more physical than Beasley or Jones who can run underneath routes and win contested balls would greatly expand what we can do. Josh trusts Beasley, who is a great asset to our 2nd-year QB, but we will see a number of fumbles or interceptions off of high velocity balls when defenses swarm the middle as they see Josh "check down" to his safety net. We have two burners in Brown and Foster and promising rookie tight ends, but a physically imposing presence in lieu of Jones would help Josh more than most QBs. We will probably go BPA at OT/WR/DE/LB/RB, in that order.

Concise and on-point evaluation in a few sentences that summarizes what we have in Allen that I needed a few hundred words to detail. Josh has all the talent in the world, but also makes too many mental mistakes and risky decisions that define the careers of gifted players like Good Rex/Bad Rex and Cam Newton. However, he's shown a clear ability to learn from his mistakes and continually improve that so many players who get by on their talent lack. Comparing him to a rare, rare player like Mahomes is a pointless exercise; it's exciting, and promising, to have such a talented, but flawed, QB who gets markedly better every day unlike the arrogant and immature Mayfield (who is, of course, also a second-year rookie and has plenty of time to put in the extra work, reflection, and preparation that is necessary for success at the highest level).

Plays such as today's interception are simly unacceptable for "developed" quarterbacks in the NFL. Truly elite quarterbacks commit minimal obvious errors, and Josh makes more poor/irrational decisions than most successful quarterbacks did through c. 16 games/in their second season. The pass blocking was extremely poor at times (though often gave him more than enough time to make a decision; the right side gets beaten too early too often, but pass blocking is probably above average otherwise), and, given that the game is still a little fast for him combined with his tendency to lock his vision, loose rushers make me hold my breath. It's incredible how many times today, as in many other games, he dodged free rushers in his peripheral vision at the last second. While his athleticism, strength, and resolve mean that he is not best off just taking the hit and protecting the ball in the pocket, he has far too high a rate of fumbles, or rash passes into coverage due to the above characteristics). But when Josh turns a sack into two missed tackles and jukes a linebacker on the way to a first down or major gain, I gasp in awe at what his athletic ability, refusal to give up on plays, and leadership under pressure enable him to do. Josh has improved measurably, both statistically and via the "eye test," over his short career, not only from last year to this, but also game-by-game. Josh holds onto the ball for far, far, too long still and still has a tendency to lock his eyes and progressions onto a receiver or two. He also has a long way to go with regards to his ability to throw at the right velocity and placement. Last year, Josh would probably have scrambled upfield after evading tacklers in the backfield and heading upfield towards the sideline; this year, we saw a number of plays such as the throw to Knox that he felt comfortable making after being forced to use his legs. Russell Wilson does this extremely well, while lesser QBs generally are just concerned with getting away from the hit. Despite the high frequency of impactful and avoidable mistakes, he's made significant strides in his decision-making with regards to ending a play and moving on to the next down, with an increased propensity to throw the ball out of play, slide, and otherwise reducing the potential for a turnover, and is doing a better job of ensuring that his runs are efficient and prioritize moving the chains/taking himself out of play rather than going for the extra yards. Those were some of his major flaws last year that talented players like Rex Grossman failed to correct over the course of their careers and frustrate fans and management to no end. Barring the interception and a few other plays- I'm most concerned with the lack of improvement in consistently progressing through his looks and exposing himself to blind side hits- I thought his play was generally at the level of a difference maker, at least in the first half and on the game-winning drive. Josh has clearly made significant progress on of his weak points, and I believe that the boneheaded decisions and "heroball tendencies" should continue to become less prevalent with experience. He's clutch, driven, and is truly remarkable, especially for his age, in his belief that any deficit is surmountable and that you should never, never give up. While Darnold was my preference going into last year's draft (obviously we would have had to trade up to get him), and had a number of impressive games last season, the Jets QB is hard to evaluate given the change in coaches from his first to second year, poor leadership, mentorship, and game-planning/execution from Gase, current illness, along with a mediocre offensive line and inconsistent/oft-injured receivers (barring Crowder). While any team should be happy with Mayfield's performance last year, even given the expectations for a #1 pick, it seems that he lacks the maturity, confident humility, and self-reflection/awareness that are so important for success at the highest level, and likely won't be more than an average QB. Bills fans should be thrilled to have Josh; I will happily take his special skill set, mentality, and fortitude along with the wild and rash plays. Consider Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford. While Ryan is certainly an elite quarterback and future Hall of Famer, there isn't much in his game that stands out (when compared to other elite QBs). Roethlisberger is famed for his ability to take hits and complete a play and will/ability to throw deep balls into coverage; Manning stands out from other Hall of Famers for his ability to make calls on the line and throw off off defenses' tempo/formation. Ryan does everything very well, has a strong mental makeup, and leads the league in fourth quarter comebacks since joining the league. He has virtually everything you could ask for in a quarterback, but there is nothing in his game that we will remember 20 years from now when we reflect on what made the current crop of Hall of Fame quarterbacks special; as such, he's a few notches below Brady and Manning, and slightly behind Roethlisberger in my book. Any NFL team should, of course, be thankful for a QB on Ryan's level, and Josh has a long, long way to go to be in the same stratosphere. But his unique skillset means that the potential is there for Allen to be something truly special if he continues to improve at this rate and corrects the (major) flaws in his game. Stafford has far more talent than Ryan, yet is a middling QB due to his failure to improve the weaknesses in his game that were present at the start of his career, primarily holding the ball too long, inconsistent velocity, and relatively high rate of throws into coverage within 10-20 yards (vs. high risk/high reward throws downfield that would place the opponent in poor field position if intercepted, which Mahomes is never afraid to do). Unlike Stafford, Josh seems to be making major strides in the mental and reactive components of the game, and seems to truly be able to lead under pressure and inspire his teammates through hard work and a desire to just win. I believe that exceptionally talented players drafted 1st overall are often too comfortable with mediocrity, especially when paired with the record contracts that Stafford and Russell received, if they lack the desire to win above everything else. Allen, as the 7th overall pick, obviously doesn't have the same chip on his shoulder as a sixth rounder who was underscouted, in part, due to the worst QB combine performance like Brady, or the undrafted grocery bagger, Kurt Warner. But he should continue to benefit from going the extra mile in preparation and review and the satisfaction of silencing talking heads who look at rookie year completion percentage in isolation as validation that he is fundamentally "inaccurate," or ignore his statistically and visually measurable improvement over the course of last year in favor of simply pointing to his rookie year statline as confirmation that he will not succeed.

I don’t believe McCoy’s salary was material to the decision to cut him. He’s not of the highest character, and I think McDermott and Beane had some concerns as to how he would respond to a RB by committee approach. Cutting him was probably the wrong decision, and I think there’s a good chance he would have fully embraced a sharply reduced role on a winning team (as in KC). Nevertheless, the team felt confident in Singletary splitting carries with and learning from Gore. Obviously, having all three backs, sans Yeldon, would have made for a more dynamic running attack, but it’s absurd to think that salary was a major factor in the decision to part ways.

Only Jones warrants, or would go for, a first. Green’s injury history means that he would cost a 3rd at most.

I was replying to a post about the death of Berman’s wife. But, yes, I agree that both posts are off-topic.

His wife was 3x over the limit and killed someone just going about his day. I imagine he had some idea of her drunk driving habits and have little sympathy towards him in this regard, though I imagine the emotions of someone whose partner’s reckless and selfish behavior took someone’s life are unimaginably complex.

Josh got a ton of attention after the Vikings game for his performance (and especially the Barr hurdle). Not everything is a slight at Bills fans. Murray is the #1 overall pick, and that story will get far more views. When the Bills are sitting in the division hunt week 10 of this season, he’ll get a ton of coverage.

sure, i agree that those execution issues yesterday knock him down from an elite performance despite the gaudy numbers and high % of targets caught etc.. but that should knock him down to “good” or the upper end of average, not “poor.”

and if we go 9-7 or 10-6 and miss the playoffs, will they be failing?

I’ll just have to multitask on two monitors. The 7 pm draft is bigger $ anyway, and this year I want a lot of the 20-30 dollar guys, so I can probably sit tight for a bit in the second league.

Tuesday should be fun for me: 4 pm, 7 pm, and 8:15 drafts (all auction) for my 3 leagues this year. Not looking forward to work on Wednesday..

It’s foolish to draft before cutdown day.

I’ll take a 3 buck (auction minimum) flyer on Foster and Brown, maybe Allen. Not worth drafting Bills outside of the last 2-3 rounds in a standard draft. I’d probably pay up to 6 bucks for Brown if pressed. Beasley might get solid production, but not enough to justify ownership in my 12-team half PPR with 1 flex. Should be be a good year to pick up backs like Lindsay, Connor, and Williams in the 20s/30s instead of spending 40+ on Saquon, Zeke; Gurley etc.