ny33

Good stuff, but we were lucky to win both the Bengals and Jets games thanks to Mr. Hyde showing up far too often and Dr. Jekyll disappearing for quarters at a time. Encouraging that we were within a score after Allen’s first half and shows that this team can beat anyone.

He’s played like a backup (statistically) over the last 5 games. This D can contain him. If Allen has the composure he showed against the Titans, we shouldn’t write off week 16 @NE. Not unlikely that the Pats are sitting at 13 wins and the Bills 12 in a battle for the division.

At 4-1, the Bills have generally performed as anyone who closely follows the team should have expected as of the conclusion of preseason. Allen is going to lose us more games than he wins, but he has the ability and has shown flashes of the consistency needed to be .500 or better vs. real contenders, and it’s critical for the team to put away inferior opposition such as NYJ/CIN. Here's how I envision the season if we stay relatively healthy and Josh can generally execute as he did vs. Tennessee (take what you get vs. the defense, get the ball out quickly, and make just 1-2 boneheaded plays a game). Elite, tireless defense that needs the offense to keep them off the field as the season takes its toll The defense, returning 10 starters (Oliver replacing Williams), and retaining the starter-quality depth in a scheme that emphasizes defensive line rotation and multiple quality nickel/slot cornerbacks (T. Johnson/S. Neal), is playing at a truly elite level with few material weaknesses. While I am somewhat concerned that the rare level of discipline, focus, and execution can be retained if the D continues to be forced to play 3+ series in a few minutes as the offense stalls out or turns over the ball- and believe that the spate of injuries in the Titans game has strong correlation to the defensive uptime- we have far-above-average depth that enables an overworked defense to stay fresh. 2018 offense and how it has shaped Allen’s development Last year's offense was, perhaps, one of the worst in NFL history, with our Wyoming rookie QB playing behind a line barely qualified to make NFL rosters (barring Dawkins), with McCoy his only weapon (and McCoy clearly rendered helpless behind a bottom-5 line); the pathetic effort/drops of Kelvin Benjamin, paired with a rookie WR in Zay Jones whose use to NFL teams is as a slot/underneath option in space/from the backfield rather than the downfield role he was expected to play, did lasting damage to Allen's psyche and has driven his "heroball" mentality. Combined with the inexcusable lack of a veteran backup, he was set up to fail, though his physical gifts and work ethic/drive shone in spurts last year. I consider the emergence of a motivated Foster as crucial to Allen's development, helping drive his confidence in the ability to throw downfield (with outstanding performance from Foster, especially for a rookie, in catching and adjusting to deep throws from an errant and green rookie). 2019’s NFL-caliber offense with disciplined/talented veterans and rookies ahead of the curve Thankfully, Beane and co. more than made up for their 2018 offensive plan with the addition of a veteran deep threat in Brown, safety net in Beasley, as well as the signings of above-average linemen and the addition of promising TEs, a veteran back to mentor the dynamic Singletary, and the impressive recognition that they needed a player in the mold of Williams on the outside who can adjust to off-target balls (Jones had no shot at succeeding in his role despite generally improved play). Just two returning starters (2nd/3rd year+ Jones) should mean meaningful strides for a talented offense over the course of the season With just Allen and Dawkins returning as starters, and quality role players such as McKenzie (vastly improved and in a role that suits his skill set), plus the potential bonus of a fully-healthy Foster in a few weeks, the offense should continue to build on the Titans game, Allen's best so far, and the only one this season that I felt we were in control over. The team has committed 42 penalties so far- 8th worst in the league- but this is skewed by a league-leading 12 false starts from an offensive line that needs time to continue to gel, and has generally played well barring the weakness to right side speed rushes/blitzes (equally, or primarily, due to Allen’s inconsistent progressions and hesitation to make quick decisions/adjust his release time to pressure). Compared to the Ryan years and most NFL teams, these Bills seem disciplined and should see a marked decline in penalties as the remade offense plays more than six games together. Blowout wins mid-season vs. the inept (Mia./Wash.), exploiting the talented but chaotic Browns, and a win vs. the Eagles or Cowboys key for confidence The Bengals and Jets games could have gone either way, but Allen's recovery from the alarming regression in the first half vs. the Pats, against a very good defense, should mean comfortable margins of victory over historically bad teams (Mia. 2x and Washington), a favorable matchup vs. a rattled Mayfield and his unprepared rookie head coach on the road, a toss-up game vs. an inconsistent, but talented, Eagles team, and a top-heavy Broncos team with some major weaknesses despite some elite talent (though Chubb is out for the year). Near-lock for playoffs going into the last third I fully expect the team to be, at a minimum, 9-2 going into the Cowboys game, which should lock a playoff spot in a weak AFC. If Allen can play like he did vs. Tennessee consistently- which is to say 1-2 unacceptable plays vs. the 4-5, and keep up the frequency of drives into the opponent’s half, this team is good enough that I would be disappointed with even 9 wins, and expect to see an 11-12 win wild card team. 13 wins and the division are a legitimate possibility (expecting a loss @NE and @DAL + either the Eagles, Browns, or Ravens) if the Pats slip up a bit vs. good teams (their o-line is a weak point and expect them to lose 2-4 games @Phi, vs. Dal, @Hou, and vs. KC, with Week 16 @NE potentially having tiebreaker implications for the division. Potential playoff matchups I’m hoping to get a chance for revenge vs. a Ravens team that isn’t very talented defensively and saw Jackson exposed vs. NFL caliber teams (though, like Allen, he has made clear strides in fixing his weaknesses and is playing well enough to win a playoff game or two). I don’t think we have a favorable matchup at Houston against Watson and the deep threat of Fuller + Hopkins’ Hall of Fame talent, but it’s certainly a winnable game if this team can play in a relative shootout and contain Watt/Mercilus. The Titans, Jags, and Colts are similarly well-coached (in that order, with Reich significantly more impressive) and mentally/physically tough (esp. the Colts), but also have inexperienced QBs (though Brissett is a seasoned vet). I would give the Bills the slight edge in what would likely be similar slugfests to the Titans game and expect them to come down to the winner of the turnover battle, even if by one, in a struggle for field position and points. If we can win the wild card round on the road, anything is possible this year Beating KC or NE would be very difficult in a divisional round road game. But the Colts showed that the Chiefs can be contained against a disciplined team with a punishing rushing attack and 2 4th down conversions (one of the major points for McDermott/Buffalo to improve on that will mean the difference in high-stakes games). But a playoff win under Buffalo’s belt, combined with a roster that is good enough to contain Brady and beat the Pats if Bad Josh mostly stays home- almost every other NFL starter, except the equally volatile Fitzmagic, likely would have won the Pats game with every other unit playing well-makes both matchups legitimately winnable. This is a far cry from the 2017 playoff team, which was one of the worst wild card teams in NFL history and got some lucky turnover breaks + a solid defense and a QB who would never be able to beat a contender, but was one of the few guys who could deliver a gameplan good enough to win most of the Bills’ games against worse teams and sneak in at 9-7. Tyrod gets an incredibly unfair rep.; it’s not his fault that Buffalo did not cut ties with Manuel sooner and draft a QB in 2017, Mahomes or otherwise; happy to see him comfortable as a backup to Rivers on Anthony Lynn’s well-run and talented squad. Rivers, more so than most elite/borderline elite QBs, needs an average offensive line to succeed, and I don’t think the Chargers will make the playoffs as a result. Hope the o-line stays healthy, and I think people here have been way too critical of the pass blocking; other than QB, it's the unit that has the greatest impact on a generally-talented team. Remaining game predictions: W. vs. Mia (5-1) L. vs. Phi (5-2) W. vs. Wash. (6-2) W. @ Cle. (7-2) W @ Mia (8-2) W vs. Den. (9-2) L @ Dal. (9-3) W vs Bal. (10-3) W @ Pitt. (11-3) L @ NE (11-4) W vs. NYJ (12-4) 12-4 may seem optimistic, but this team should be disappointed with 9 wins or even 10 in this year's AFC and with the overall talent on the roster. Playoffs: WCR: W@ Bal., Ind., Jax, or Ten.; L @ Hou. DIVR: L@ KC or NE

The HS team would destroy them.

KB was a fat and lazy bastard. I have no such concerns about Green (though he could very well be a physical wreck). Diggs has some motivation concerns, sure.

No one is giving us a 2nd or 3rd for Barkley, and it’s a huge stretch to say he’s better than those 3 QB rooms primarily based on one game vs. the Jets. I say this as someone very happy to have him as a backup. Agree with your post otherwise.

teams could be gauging his value. jags obviously would never trade for eli with minshew playing well and foles coming back

If the Bills win a playoff game or two, especially against KC or NE, they will be everyone’s “sleeper team” next year.

probably on synthetic weed

I don’t think he has the temperament to last in the league. Less about games like this against a good defense than the fact that he’s a DUI waiting to happen.

Baker will be out of the league in 4-5 years.

Why on earth would an 0-5 team have any use for Beasley instead of draft picks?

I have some hope that having Gore and the ego-free Bills locker room could be just the right thing for Yeldon to reach his potential. I don't think a head coach like Marrone and personalities like Fournette, Jack, and Ramsey were any good for Yeldon, and going from 2nd round pick to a somewhat dysfunctional Jags team might have humbled him somewhat. Given Foster's turnaround and the outperformance of most of the guys we've brought in on "prove it" one year deals, it's not unreasonable to think that this locker room and management can help talented underperformers to get things to click. There are going to be failures like Benjamin as a result of a lack of work ethic, but the team-first nature of these Bills reminds me of the Pats' ability to silence me-first stars like Moss and Brown (briefly) and push players with personal/maturity issues like Gordon to succeed.

And morons driving high put themselves and others in danger. Colorado has a huge problem with stoned drivers that is the leading cause for concern; I can guarantee you that, beyond the tobacco/alcohol lobbies, irresponsible people who see legalization as a license to operate a motor vehicle while impaired- and without the ability to test on the spot as with BAC- will be the largest reason for delayed legalization federally. I don't care if people use, and hopefully changed attitudes/legal status can lead to more medical breakthroughs like GWPH's epilepsy drug derived from cannabinoids or the replacement of opioids with CBD, but people like Dareus should get meaningful jail terms if they are careless enough to drive high.

Wearing a Gilmore jersey to a Pats game is certainly a bizarre decision. Fitz was fun to watch and was good enough to give Bills fans the mirage of hope for half a season, which I can't say about any other drought QB. McCoy and Watkins are/were elite and dynamic talents who made mediocre teams watchable and were good teammates/sports on teams without a QB, unlike McGahee and a few others who never were taught that if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all (about the city, which obviously isn't the right fit for many players, but trashing a city just calls into question a player's priorities). As for Tyrod, I can't think of any Bill more egregiously disrespected. He was a quiet leader and adequate game manager who was never going to be "the guy," but it's not his fault that Whaley didn't move on from EJ sooner. The 2017 Bills were one of the worst wild card teams I have ever seen, and managed 9 wins due to the combination of a risk-averse (and low scoring ceiling) quarterback and a defense that generated a leading number of turnovers (the recipe for consistently beating equal or less talented teams). Allen, in contrast, will singlehandedly lose us 3-4 games this year, but can be the guy for a perennial contender if he can consistently take what the defense gives him for 4 quarters instead of treating every play as the last. We would have been much better off having him to ease in a raw rookie from Wyoming instead of Peterman and a desperation Derek Anderson signing, but he's in the right spot as a backup on a team like the Chargers that has the talent to give him a fighting chance vs. real competition (unlike the 2017 Bills who were blown out by average squads).

It's a lot easier to confidently call gadget plays/sweeps when the offense is clicking, and being against one of the best defenses- which I would rank along with Buffalo as the top secondary- that can play single coverage against our only downfield threat in Brown and put the deep safety in support against his side (daring Allen to throw to Jones downfield). Having the Foster from the second half of '18 or a productive Duke forces the defense to respect Zay's side of the field (when he is physically average and shows some struggles with high-pressure catches instead of being a flexible rotation piece to the middle, where he plays best, or spelling our outside guys and using fresh legs to keep testing the deep ball).

I am happy to have Josh and believe he gives us the best chance to win each week on top of his long-term potential. The Pats would have feasted on Barkley's lack of velocity and been able to shut down the run/plays into the flat and slot. Barkley can win games against teams with weaknesses in the secondary/ability to lead receivers against teams like the Jets, but the Pats would be able to play tight coverage against our outside and deep balls knowing that Barkley is not a mobile threat and reliant on open space for his receivers to make a play. That being said, I do wonder if Josh would benefit from 1-2 games observing from the bench and getting his mind/body in shape. Watching the offense from a position where he has no impact on the result of the play could help him to be more disciplined and not feel that he has to try to be the hero and make a play every down, and prioritize just taking what the defense gives him rapidly (which is when he manages strong drives and avoids putting himself in a situation to take hits or force balls out of desperation. I don't think we are better against the Titans with Barkley instead of a healthy Allen, but a game seeing the offense from the bench next to Daboll as he fully recovers from the concussion could be what he needs after showing overall progress paired with streaks like Q1 vs. the Pats that determine too many games. He seemed more decisive and sharper after being out for a few weeks last year (+ Foster giving him a competent receiver/deep threat) and focusing on film and mechanics through the bye week could be just what he needs.

Foster appears to still be dealing with preseason injuries. Jones isn't nearly as bad as the board makes him out to be; obviously he's a disappointment for his draft slot, especially with Juju/Godwin/Kupp drafted after. Even at the time, it made little sense to me for the Bills to take a small-school receiver with average physical traits for a team planning on drafting a rookie QB the following year and without a TE or "possession" receiver, whether underneath blanket like Beasley or physical mismatch like Duke on the roster. Jones was awful his rookie year and just ok last year, but his catch rate has improved drastically and appears worse than the reality due to his poor track record on high-pressure plays (key third down and end zone drops). He's a competent 4th option on a good team that doesn't have to force the ball to him if Brown is double covered in third-and-long or end zone situations.

I hope that Foster is mentally and physically in the same place as he was for the second half of last year. He averaged 73 yards/game from week 10-17 (7 games including the bye) with 3 TDs and 20.44 YPC. As a deep threat, he showed elite ability and impressive awareness for a rookie, and did an excellent job hauling in deep balls in space from an inconsistent rookie QB, adding an element to Allen's game that was key to his development and is reflected in his comfort throwing to and synergy with John Brown in a similar role (partially explaining Foster's invisibility so far). He's questionable for this coming week, and I am optimistic that he has been limited by a slow recovery from preseason injuries rather than complacency or a lack of trust from the coaches. At the very least, a target like Duke gives us a chance on some of the wild/rushed balls Allen throws downfield that Jones has no chance of winning. Jones is much better in the middle of the field, and I think he is an asset to a team that spreads 5+ targets to 5+ receivers successfully (e.g. the Pats) as a fourth option, versus his current role as an outside/go route option without any exceptional skills, unlike Brown who has rare speed and route-running ability and solid hands. Third down sets with Jones and Beasley in the slot could be very effective if either Duke or Foster gives an outside threat with either a physical or speed mismatch. Jones also seems to drop more balls in pressure situations, and I'm a lot more confident in him and the offense with Jones as a 4th/5th option on plays like the 4th and 3 to end the Pats game vs. the second read.

Yep. One of the main ways Brady excels is in his ability to process his reads quickly, and understand how abbreviated that process should be vs. a blitz (e.g. reading just half the field knowing that there should be an open target against fewer players in coverage). Allen plays his best when he prioritizes getting an acceptable throw off during his dropback; he fails to move the ball and exposes himself to hits and turnovers when he is tentative in throwing quickly to receivers in coverage, waiting for either a clear break with the idea that he can run if nothing opens up. His bad habits amplify each other, and he frequently settles into a habit of holding the ball when pass blocking is good, which defenses then exploit through the blitz and force him into late, rash decisions. The o-line looks very good; seeing Russell Wilson running for his life on Thursday, or most other Seahawks games over the last few years, is what an incompetent line actually looks like. As for the statistic itself, I would note that our weakness (RT getting beaten frequently off the snap vs. speed/stacked rush) is the prevalence of getting beaten early, which overall win rates do not address. The stat has to be looked at in tandem with the percentage of plays in which the blocker is beaten within 2 seconds (we probably rank much lower in that regard).

The legality of the play is a toss-up from my perspective; Jones was definitely too aggressive and positioned himself for a penalty, but I don't think it was driven by malice with intent to injure. Penalty and no fine seems quite appropriate. I'm much more concerned with the fact that the league didn't address, let alone suspend, Henry Anderson for trying to take Josh's legs out a few seconds after Allen was out of the play. Riveron is an embarrassment who is doing more damage to the NFL than the league seems to realize; he's in the most important role in football other than the commissioner, and has prioritized defending the league and referee's decisions over driving continuous improvement and consistency in officiating. He's also made clear errors in numerous decisions in a role that has to be perfect in processing the facts and evidence off the field (Benjamin touchdown reversal last year, for example). The NFL is doing serious harm to its brand, especially post events like Spygate and the impact of officiating failures on games such as Saints-Vikings in last year's playoffs on top of the perception that certain players receive preferential treatment (there is clear evidence that mobile QBs like Newton are granted fewer roughing the passer calls on top of the widely-held belief that Brady and others are treated differently)

It’s always strange to see lofted deep balls to Jones; I half expect to see Knox or Sweeney as the intended target, but Jones or any other receiver his height isn’t going to get up against double coverage on a jump ball (which are not bad plays on third and long outside of FG range).

Roberts looking like a legitimate difference maker as a returner.

That’s the kind of throw he needs to be comfortable letting loose on balance. He can make them and looks his worst when he thinks he can wait for someone to be wide open, leading to highly avoidable sacks/fumbles/mindless throws to keep the play alive.

Genuinely wonder if Allen would benefit sitting for a few games and absorbing the game from the bench. Another winnable game like this and I think it has to be considered as the possible right step for his development.