I think this narrative is flawed. The running team still needs to score more than the passing team.
If the Bills would normally have 10 possessions and they are held to 6, the Colts would also have about 6 possessions. If the Bills score TDs on 3 then the Colts need to score on 4. It becomes a lower scoring game but the mat still works in the Bills favor.
What does make a difference is the Colts defense. If they can get a few turnovers and hold the Bills to FGs, then their offense may be able to carry the day.