hondo in seattle

I agree on the target issue. I think it's possible Samuel surpasses 1,000 yards - but not likely. I don't think it's "likely" that Shakir or anyone else does either. I certainly wouldn't put money on it. With a bunch of new receivers, and Brady adding new concepts to our scheme, it's really hard to guess. I suppose someone will emerge as Josh's favorite and/or the guy best suited to Brady's scheme and playcalling. That person could get 1,000+ yards because we will pass a bunch. But it's hard to say who that'll be. I wouldn't be shocked if Coleman proves to be better than you think and leads the team in receptions and yards. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if Claypool resuscitates his career and takes targets & receptions away from the slow-of-foot rookie. Brady has said something to the effect that everyone needs to eat. Arguably, we have as many as 6 receivers that need to be fed, 2 TEs, and 2 RBs. Someone's going to go hungry. Brady and Josh will favor someone else and feed them seconds. I won't pretend to know who's going to end up skinny and who's getting fat. This position group excites my curiosity more than any other. And I'm really anxious to see what changes Brady's making to the offense.

I hate when the media calls her "The Billionairre Tennis Star," and things like that. It's as if money bought her the success she's experienced. I think her true story is one of perserverance. She didn't have a lot of success early in her career, wasn't ranked high, suffered some injuries, and contemplated quitting. Now she's top five, and has been as high as #3. It would be cool to see someone so connected with Buffalo and the Bills win Wimbledon. She just won a grass so it's not unrealistic to hope.

Maybe I'm the one with poor recall, but I thought he had a couple of big drops in Super Bowls.

I think you're getting me confused with someone else... You never asked me what I envision for Samuel's targets, yards, etc. It's a good question, though, and I'll give it some thought. And I never laid out the 6-1 finish last year. Though I will add that wins and losses are not a meaningless statistic. What I said is that stats are an ineffective way to measure individual talent. Stats, particularly wins and losses, are a great way to measure team performance. I'm not sure if you're refuting me but I actually agree with everything you say here. My point was that I don't think we can accurately predict Samuel's production with the Bills going forward because he had a low catch percentage in the past. I don't think catch percentage is the most predictive stat. And it neglects the "surrounding talent" which influences even something like this.

No doubt the talent was there. But although he behaved well in his short time with us, I'd worry about the drama.

Elbert Dubinion deserves a mention. For those who aren't old enough to remember, "Golden Wheels" had Jack Kemp throwing to him. Kemp was a good leader and a good guy but I be hard-pressed to call him a good quarterback. In Dubenion's best year, Kemp only completed 44% of his passes. Even by the standards of the day, that was lousy. Kemp ball placement wasn't very precise though he could usually get it somewhere vaguely near a receiver. Yet in 1964, Dubenion came down with 42 receptions and 10 TDs for 1,139 yards in 13 games. He averaged 87 yards per game and 27 yards per catch. With Jack Where-the-Ball-Goes-Nobody-Knows Kemp as his quarterback. Imagine that talent combined with a QB like Josh.

This may not be fair but the first three things I think about when Beebe is mentioned are speed, drops, and chasing down Leon Lett. I like the speed. I like the effort. But the 'drops' part keeps him off my list. I agree that it would be awesome to pair Lofton with Allen.

I'm happy with my books under my rock. I haven't watched Dune 2 yet so maybe that'll restore my faith in Hollywood.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Statistics are not effective measures of individual talent in the NFL. For example, Passer Rating was invented to measure how good QBs are. Josh Allen was 16th in Passer Rating last year. According to statistics, Brady would be a fool to build his offense around such a mediocre QB. RBs are often rated by the yards they gain. In 1971, OJ was ranked 15th in rushing yards. Yet Lou Saban built an offense around him and we know what happened. I'm glad Saban used his football smarts to evaluate Simpson and not a stat sheet. Catch percentage has a lot to do with ball placement. Scheme helps, too: If the OC gets an receiver wide open, he's more likely to make the catch than when a receiver is fighting for a contested ball. If talent was perfectly measured by stats, we would let analytic guys run teams. Yet when the Browns tried that (DePodesta, et al.), they failed. And if Catch Rate is your Be-All/End-All stat, then we should be good with Samuel because his catch rate last year (68.1%) was better than Puka Nacua's (67.1%) and yet Puka - with a better QB - had 1,486 receiving yards. And Samuel had only two drops so it's not like has hands of stone. I'll take the 1,486 yards. Samuel will have the best QB throwing to him that he's ever had so I expect a good year from him. Though, I think Brady intends to spread the ball around far more than Dorsey did. I wouldn't be entirely shocked if none of our receivers broke 1,000. It's going to be an interesting season.

It's hard for me to consider TO when his prime was with another team. Same with Lofton. For me, it's between Reed and Moulds. And even though Reed is a HOFer, I think I'd go with Moulds. Allen-to-Moulds would be a force to be reckoned with. Moulds would end up in the HOF, too, if he stayed healthy and spent his career with Allen.

It was lost on me till I saw the clip. Good job!

Maybe I'm just an old fart. Or maybe I just love books more. But I'm personally not parroting anyone when I complain about Hollywood and it's lack of creativity. I don't like super hero movies. My family drags me into them and I fall asleep from boredom. From my vantage point, there's nothing novel, creative, or interesting about them. I wish Hollywood stopped spending hundreds of millions on silly superhero flicks and used that money instead on original, intelligent, dramatic stories. I rarely like franchises of any kind (though there are exceptions). Once you've seen the premise, it's time to move onto a new story with a new premise. How many times do you want to watch The Bourne Identity? Personally, I was good with once. I can't remember the last movie experience I truly enjoyed. I suppose it was the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Very rarely do I enjoy a movie more than the book(s) it was based on but I thought Jackson did a masterful job bringing Tolkien's imagination to the big screen. Btw, I loved Dune when I was a teen - read it 6 times. Decades of life and thousands of books later, that's still my record. Yet I was not enchanted with the recent Dune movie, sorry - though it was much better than the awful Lynch attempt. I'm somewhat happy there's going to be a Gladiator 2 movie just because I want to see more historical dramas. But why not an original story instead of a sequel to a movie where the main character dies? Because tickets are sold with name recognition - "Gladiator"... Ridley Scott... more big names to come. Original stories are risky and that's why Hollywood hardly makes them anymore. Can you imagine someone trying to get funding for a hokey script about a barroom romance with an unhappy ending based on failed stage play. Casablanca wouldn't get made today. I want Hollywood to make a movie about the Bills Super Bowl season. But I guess we have to win one first.

I don't know if she'd be a good owner or not. But after reading the article she wrote about her mom, as well as some of her interviews, she comes across as a bright woman whose ego is in check and whose heart is in the right place. I don't know anything about her sister (half-sister?) who may possibly be better for the role. What I don't want is a John Y. Brown type owning the Bills and Jessica seems opposite of that. For those who may not know, Brown was the traitorous final owner of the Buffalo Braves and the reason Buffalo doesn't have an NBA team anymore.

I don't agree that McD is shoving anything down Brady's neck. And I'm not: "not looking, or rather, turning the other way." That's simply a silly assertion that adds no value to your argument. But I do agree that the offense did not look good under Brady. The pass attack didn't get more productive - though it did get less self-destructive with fewer picks. Cook didn't run better. We all remember the Dallas game. But as I recall, Cook's YPC was lower under Brady versus Dorsey. And Diggs didn't suddenly get old/lose a step at midseason. He certainly got less productive under Brady and you have to consider the possibility that Brady did a poorer job scheming him open. I recall seeing someone charting receivers by yards of separation. Interestingly, both Davis and Diggs were in the lower half of the league. Lack of talent or poor scheme? Hard to know. But Shakir and Kincaid were in the upper half. Maybe this helps explain why we got rid of who we got rid of and kept who we kept. One thing people don't talk about enough is execution. Yes, an OC needs to scheme up a good game plan and then do a good job calling plays on game day. But he also needs to get the players to execute the plays at a high level. The Pats offense was good at this in their glory years. I'm no expert but when I rewatched some of the games, I didn't think we executed all that well under Dorsey. Receivers sometime ran lazy routes or were inconsistent when/where they made cuts. And clearly the communication between Davis and Allen seemed off at times. If the execution got any better under Brady, I didn't see it. I can't say I was happy when Brady was named the OC going forward. But I am cautiously encouraged that Allen seems excited about the changes Brady (not McD) is making to the offensive scheme.

Sadly, there's a bit of truth in that. But if the OL can protect Josh, and if Brady turns out to be a good OC who knows how to scheme guys open, we'll be fine. We might not have All Pros at the skill positions (outside of our All World QB), but we do have a nice variety of weapons.

I'm guessing this is why she doesn't seem to be involved much with the Bills, despite some previous stories. She's got something else going on. Won the Berlin Open today. Top Ten in the world for 100 weeks. Currently ranked #5. Representing the USA in the upcoming Olympics.

I've never heard Brady say anything to the effect that McD is breathing down his neck. So I'm not sure what your source is for this. I agree, though, that Brady needs to get better. I assume he was involved in some of the offseason WR moves and told McD and Beane what kind of receivers he wanted for his offense to work. Allen has said that Brady is installing new concepts and it's like learning a new offense. In other words, it doesn't sound like we'll see the same aerial attack this season that we saw at the end of last year. There will be new players running new plays. Without knowing more, it's hard to guess how it'll all work out.

One of my worst takes ever on TBD... I thought Harty and Sherfield - especially Sherfield - were good additions. In my defense, I'm guessing Beane thought so, too. Now it seems whoever you want to chart as Harty's and Shefield's replacements are going to be upgrades because both were huge disappointments. Shakir is an upgrade over Shakir because he's getting better. Samuel is an upgrade over Davis because he's faster, more versatile, and has better hands. So 4 of our top 5 wideouts are upgrades. That leaves Coleman versus Diggs, and that's highly unlikely to be an upgrade. Hopefully, Coleman finds a role with the Bills where the downgrade isn't extreme - and then the 5 versus 5 comparison is an upgrade overall. If Coleman struggles but Claypool plays up to his potential, we could be okay. It helps that our TEs could be better this year. Kincaid seemed to improve as the season progressed and he learned the offense and how to succeed in the pros. And Knox, with a little luck, will be healthy this year.

I agree McD did a fantastic job in his role as DC over the second half of the season. But Rampant Buffalo is right when he says that McD needs to find a way to generate stops in the playoffs. Better talent would help a lot: guys who can pressure the quarterback and DBs who can blanket receivers. I'm not sure we have either of those but we'll see. But McD needs to surprise, outthink, and outscheme opposing OCs and HCs in the playoffs. Relying on his normal gameplans has proven inadequate. Being healthier (fingers crossed) will make a huge difference but I also want McD to be more innovative on defense - a defensive version of Andy Reid. Maybe McD's frustation at not getting to the big dance yet will have him rethink some of his past conservatism. We needed to be 4 points better against the Chiefs. Just 4. Maybe Brady's modifications to the offense gives us that. Maybe just being healthier will give us that. But I'd like to see the defensive scheming get a little better as well. Having Babich as DC handling the day-to-day stuff might allow McD to do more high-level, innovative game-planning. I don't what to expect. I'm heading into the season with a ton of curiosity and a lot of cautious hope.

Maybe my memory is bad, but I don't recall McD playing a higher percentage of soft, zone, and prevent defenses in the playoffs than he did during the regular season. His base defense, 4-2-5, would be considered a "prevent" defense back in the 1980s. But it's common in the NFL these days and serves us well - in the regular season. My recollection is that (1) we've had trouble getting pressure in the playoffs with our 4 down linemen, and (2) while our DBs were good, they weren't lockdown great. If you give Mahomes or Burrow time - and we did - they'll complete passes in tight windows. If you're correct about the soft, zone, and prevent observation, I agree its a problem. I'm just not sure you are. In any case, I do agree that the coach is ultimately responsible. McD has got to find a way to win - maybe with exotic blitz packages or new coverage schemes the opponent haven't seen before. But I think the more fundamental problem is that Beane hasn't yet given McD quite enough talent on D. Nor have the Gridiron Gods been kind to us - too many bandaged Bills warriors were on the sidelines watching as Mahomes marched the Chiefs down the field. We need our best guys in the game to stop offenses of the Chiefs-Bengals calibre. Imagine if Groot and Elam were as good as Beane hoped they would be. And if Milano, Tre, Von, Rapp, Bernard, Douglass, etc. were all fully healthy. Last year's playoff story would have been different. Those are all Brandon Beane and Lady Luck issues. Let's not forget, too, that despite playing on crutches, we outgained, earned more first downs, and came within 3 points of beating the SB champs. If Bass hadn't missed that FG...

I spend my time doing crap like hiking, biking, running, meditating, reading, writing... because, sadly, there's nothing going on at TBD.

So what's the theory? Playoff games suck McD's IQ out of his head? The stress of the playoffs make him forget everything he knows about football? Here's my theory. McD is the same coach year round. He studies game tape the same way whether he's in the playoffs or not. He coorborates with the defensive coaches the same way. He goes about his game planning process the same way. He schedules the players for the same preparations. And if he's calling the defensive plays, he does so in accordance with his philosophy and beliefs whether it's a playoff game or not. So why the different results in the regular season versus the post-season... (1) In the playoffs, we face the very best offenses so of course our D is challenged. (2) The past two seasons, we entered the playoffs significantly banged up on defense. (3) The players overperform during the regular season thanks to McD's scheme and excellent teamwork. In the playoffs, teams like KC have the smarts to overcome our scheme advantages. So in the playoffs, the battle of our D versus the Opponents D gets decided by roster talent. McD's magic scheming doesn't overcome the shortcomings of our defensive players who lose too many one-on-one battles in the playoffs. We just haven't had enough talented players to match up with the AFC's best offenses.

If $5 million is out of your price range, you can have this beauty for 1/10th the cost... The house is 100 years old and there's a small hitch. The tenant who lives there pays only $416.67/month in rent. You can't evict them, nor can you raise the rent for the next 30 years.

I got a "Go Bills!" in the Philippines once - though from a fellow American. Once in little Gig Harbor, WA, a guy kept beeping his horn at me as I drove down the street. So I pulled over wondering what the heck was going on. He was a Bills fan and saw my stickers. We talked congenially for a while and ended the conversation with, "Go Bills!" Eating at a restaurant in Morgan Hill, California, the couple at the next table said "Go Bills" when they saw my Bills iPhone case. They were friends of the Allen family and had become Bills fans when Josh was drafted. Here on the West Coast, I hear "Go Bills" maybe about once a month. More - much more - if I go to Bills Backers bars on game day.

One of the Bills more consequential 10th-round picks - though originally drafted by the hated Chiefs who quickly cut him.