hondo in seattle

This drive looked sluggish and unimpressive... until it won the game.

I think one thing that made Brady impressive is that he could succeed regardless of the circumstances. If had a bad offensive line, for example, he'd make a good presnap read, decide who to throw the ball to, and get the ball out in 2.1 seconds. If he had Randy Moss, he'd air the ball out. If he didn't have deep threats, he'd successfullly dink and dunk down the field. He factored in the strengths and weaknesses of both his team and the opponent and played appropriately. Not all QBs have the temperament or talent to do that.

We seem to be getting our data from different sources. According to NextGenStats (using "Average Intended Air Yards" - the average air yards on all passing attempts, not just completions), here are Josh's numbers: 2022: 9.4 2023: 8.6 2024: 7.4 According to this, Josh is throwing shorter passes now. Which seems to be a general league-wide trend though some QB are still slinging the rock downfield. Our next opposing QB, Trever Lawrence, is averaging 11.0 air yards per attempt this season thus far. But, to your point, it's only two games.

Yes, that's true. And Kurt has said that Allen needs to get the ball out on schedule to whoever the play was designed for instead of waiting for a bigger play downfield. This is one of the things that made Kurt successful. He intelligently took what was given. Sometimes that was the long ball. But if the play was designed to go underneath, or if the D took the long ball away, he happily threw the short stuff. Efficiency and YAC, more than air yards, will earn you a good YPA. That's why Josh is at 8.8 yards per attempt this season versus his career mark of 7.2 (and better than Warner's career mark of 7.9).

What was interesting to me is that McD chose to convey the singles story to Allen which supports the idea, promoted by some here, that McD wants Allen to change. He's clearly asking Allen to be happy with singles and not swing for the fences so much. Which is probably the same thing Kurt Warner and Tom Brady would tell him, based on their public comments.

It's true that no team plays two deep all the time. But it certainly seems teams play it more than before. And the most common defensive alignment nowadays is the Nickel. Teams last year lined up in the Nickel something like 2 out of every 3 plays. Back in Kelly's day, they called the Nickel a "pass prevent" defense. By the standards of the 1990s and before, today's teams are in a pass prevent defense most of the time. Maybe we'll see more teams line up in conventional 3-4 and 4-3 defenses now. Which would be great for Josh.

I don't think any game in NFL history ended with that score. I'm going with something a little less bold: Bills - 24 Jags - 17

This has been one of my main criticisms of Beane for a while. If you have a great QB, you need to get him a great bodyguard. He hadn't done that. I think Josh's critics ("he's overrated") don't understand that earlier in his career Josh was often running for his life trying to make things happen. Although it often looked great in highlights, it sometimes resulted in TOs, sacks, and missed opportunities. But, so far this year, the OL has done a very nice job giving Josh time to quickly scan the field and throw.

The great football strategist, Sun Tzu, once said, "You can be sure of succeeding in your attacks if you only attack places which are undefended." And if that's what Brady is mostly doing, great. But sometimes it's not what he's doing. And as another famous football strategist, George S. Patton, may or may not have once said, "If you have a big gun, shoot it." We're winning and scoring points so I should probably just shut up but I'd like to see Brady make max use of Josh's arm talent.

I'm still not entirely sold on Brady though I'm getting sold more each week. EPA looks great this year - so far - as do points on the scoreboard. But for those who say Carolina represents who Brady is... I don't automatically agree. First of all, coaches learn and grow. I'd like to believe that Brady has studied his craft, learned from experience, and is a better OC now. The other point is that context matters. Brady has a different roster now than he did in Carolina. He also has a different group of offensive coaches supporting and advising him. And a different Head Coach. Sometimes people do crap in one environment and then thrive in a better one. I'm still unsure if Brady can scheme up a potent passing game if the need arises. What if we're in a shootout, like GB mentioned? Or what if a team plays single-high and/or loads the box? Can Brady design a game plan that nets us 300-400 yards with medium and deep passes? I'll feel better when I actually see a few games like that. For now I'm cautiously, ambivalently, hopeful.

Bookies used the age of their projected 53 man roster. Eball averaged the age of starters.

Two ex Bills featured. But who makes videos about the week's greatest punts?

I wrote that before the regular season began and have been pleasantly surprised since. Last year, Josh did a lot to make the OL look good - better than it was. This year, the OL is doing a lot to make themselves look good.

I think this is interesting. I've been saying for a few years now that if I was a HC and didn't have a franchise QB, I'd build an offense around a RB. The defense McD runs, with five DBs and only 2 LBs, would have been called a "pass prevent" defense in the old days. And what do you do against a pass prevent defense? You run. To make the run game even more attractive, today's LBs are not nail-eating brutal killers like Dick Butkus, Concrete Charlie Bednarik, or the other big thumpers from days gone by when the NFL was a running game. They're more like safeties these days with better coverage skills than tackling, faster than they are strong. Give me Cookie Gilchrist and I'll give you 6 yards, a cloud of dust, and some broken bones in the defensive second layer. The changes are frustrating to me because we have an amazing QB with a howitzer for an arm. I want to see him sling the ball downfield but that's not what defenses are allowing these days. Defenses are built to prevent the pass and so it seems the offensive pendulum is starting to swing in the other direction. Last night I watched the Chiefs Bengals play. Reid is one of the best pass game coordinators of all time. Mahomes is one of the best QBs. Yet KC ran more than they passed. Mahomes only had 151 yards. And the Chiefs won.

When you watch on TV, you don't often see what the secondary is doing. Especially if you're like me and keep your eyes on the ball. I could only infer the Bills secondary was doing its job because it contained two good QBs. The chart is interesting because I consider Douglas the better of our two boundary CBs but it seems, so far, Benford has outplayed him. Then again, as Matt_in-NH says, it's a small sample size. It's too bad Taron isn't out there too.

I was about to post the same thing when I looked at the chart. Glad to see Sauce of the Jets in the bad quadrant. Sad to see Tre there.

I was thinking about this when I watched the Chiefs game yesterday. It made me feel better about Brady's passing attack.

The Chiefs and the Pats have had the best dynasties since Free Agency began. The Pats dynasty was all about Belichick and Brady. There were other talented folks in the organization but the lethal combination of those two put the Pats at another level. What sets the Chiefs apart is that they are strong at three critical places: HC/OC, DC, and QB. But obviously there's more talent in KC than just that. Chris Jones, for example. And when Butker won the game today with a 51 yard FG, I also started wondering how our fates may have been different if we had Butker for a kicker and they had Bass. The Bills have had the bad luck of becoming good right after KC became great.

I think this is true. I also think Reid (and injuries) is the reason we don't have a Lombardi yet. McD would have gotten by a lesser HC. If I could ditch McD for Reid, I would. But we can't. And, btw, I don't think Beane has given the very best roster to work with. And, realistically, if Beane hasn't built the best roster in the AFC, why do we expect McD to earn a trip to the SB?

I wondered about that. My thought at the time was that he wasn't confident in the D's ability to contain Miami's offense. Expecting a shootout, he thought he needed 7. But I also considered that he was confident that the mesh play to Cook would work in that situation.

It was a frigid morning in early January, 2017, when a traveler from the future appeared before me, his presence both unsettling and intriguing. In a clear, certain voice, he revealed to me that the Pegulas were on the verge of hiring Sean McDermott as our new Head Coach. “Mark my words,” he said, “McDermott will transform this team into a perennial contender, a force in the league. But also know this: they will not reach the Super Bowl by 2024 and perhaps never will.” The strange traveler took a sip of Labatt's Blue and offered me a choice. “If you want, I can prevent the Pegulas from hiring him,” he said, his eyes narrowing. "What will happen in that scenario?" I wondered. "I have no idea. That's not how it played out in my timeline. We'll have to see." He looked down at Labatt's bottle for a moment before returning his gaze to me. "The decisions lies with you." So that was my choice. The certainty of lots of wins but no Lombardi or the possibility of the the soul crushing drought continuing interminably. You know what I picked and I have no regrets.

I'll be a grinch again today. Cook's beautiful TD run was for 49 yards. Outside of that he had 10 carried for 29 yards. The Big Uglies opened ONE gaping hold for Cook. But they did keep Josh mostly upright. Good list.

I'll be impressed when he pulls ahead of Tommy Hughitt's .694 winning percentage (#4 on the all time list). Hughitt coached Buffalo's NFL team from 1920-1924.

I worry about that. Brady is getting a lot of points on the board with a balanced attack. But I'm still not sold on his abilities as a pass game coordinator. If we get into a shootout, or if a defense starts focusing on the run, can Brady consistently get guys open downfield? To me, that remains an open question.

JT notices things I didn't notice watching live. Good stuff.