OldTimer1960

No, this is maybe the 3rd time in this thread that I have tried to tell you that is not my point at all. Once again, I am saying that having extra draft picks is good, but the extra draft picks the Bills have are not as valuable in terms of trade up value as many seem to think. For clarity, I reiterate - I am happy that the Bills have extra picks, those extra picks give them some extra buying power that other teams don't have. The only thing that I disagree with you in your post that I quoted is that you assigned to me a position that is not my position at all. Scenario - either Denver or Jets want the 3rd QB remaining in the draft, as do the Bills. Denver's 1st and 2nd round picks this year are more valuable in a trade up than the Bills' two first round picks. If Denver was willing to trade their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick, the Bills would have to trade both 1sts and both 2nds to have a competitive offer. I fully grasp your point, extra draft picks are valuable. For the record, I have always understood that.

I am not one who thinks that Peterman’s disastrous game against the Chargers forever defines him, but I don’t think his presence on the roster impacts the Bills’ draft plans at all. Additionally, I think that Rudolph is a considerably better prospect. i do think though that they might prefer Jackson or Allen if they are within reasonable range.

Echo the congratulations and I am happy that the Bills are not losing Their D-coordinator.

I think that they may have to trade up ahead of Arizona to get the guy that they like best among the guys left, assuming Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield are out of reach. Every one of Rudolph’s games that I’ve watched leaves me wondering why the draft media thinks he will be available at pick 21. He isn’t fast but I was impressed with each game I’ve watched.

But several other teams don't have to move up as far so they won't need to offer as much. Just going by one of the common draft value charts, Denver's 1st and 2nd pick are worth more than the Bills' two 1sts.

They will for sure bring at least 3 QBs to camp - too much wear and tear on arms if there are only 2 QBs in camp. i could envision a modest-level vet being who they target. If they draft someone like Rudolph or even Rosen, it might be smart to bring in a vet like Ryan Fitzpatrick who surely has a lot of knowledge and prepares like a pro - he just doesn’t have optimal physical talent to be a top NFL player. I think Fitz could be a really good QB coach after he is done playing, if he is interested in doing that. Think about Fitz with Rudolph and Mike Wite or Kyle Lauletta or Peterman. Josh McCown fits the Fitz “smart vet” profile as Fitz with a smidge Bette physical tools. Wouldn’t quibble with either.

Even I they sign a vet, nothing says they even need to bring Peterman to camp if they think they have 2 better rookies.

Extenuating circumstances for sure, but surely USC 3rd stringers are still better than the talent Josh Allen played with. Please don’t think I am trying to argue that Allen is a better prospect, but if Darnold gets a pass for that game, you have to at least consider giving Allen some credit for hanging in with what he had to work with.

However they get one, I just hope that they finally get a guy who we can at least get excited to think he could succeed. It really has been soooo long.

I think you are right about the numbers - I was just going for an example. I am am not advocating this, but using these adjusted numbers, let’s say that Jackson also has 25% of success. 3 premium picks to get Darnold to have a 50% chance of success or 21 and 22 for Jackson and Rudolph with 44% chance. Again, not saying that is what they should do, just saying I could see why a team *might* consider it.

I understand your point, but you REALLY have to be confident that the guy you give all that up for will end up a good starting QB. Let’s say that we think that Darnold has a 75% chance of becoming a good starter. For the sake of argument, let’s say Rudolph has a 55% chance of the same and maybe White has a 40% chance. Is using 3 premium picks on Darnold and still having a 25% chance of failure better or worse than using 2 picks on Rudolph and White and have nearly the same 27% chance of failure? I’m not necessarily arguing not to trade up, but I could also see the latter approach as not bad. Of course, if the chance of success assigned to the players is different that would tilt the scale one way or the other. I understand that this is a very simplistic way to look at it - it treats success as a binary value and, of course there are degrees of success/failure.

I don’t think Peterman’s nightmare game necessarily is the end for him, but still if the Biss take someone like Jackson, Allen or Rudolph without a major trade up, I would have no problem at all if they took another QB as high as their 2nd 2nd round pick if they think the guy is a good prospect to be a starter eventually. If both QBs pan out, they could always trade one.

Darnold is a good maybe very good QB prospect, but if you think you want to trade 21, 22 and at least another high pick for him, go watch his USC vs Notre Dame game last season. I did not see him come remotely close to carrying USC in that game. I get that it was only one game, but if you are giving up a great deal to get him, I think you are hoping that he can carry your offense. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy to have him for a reasonable price - heck I'd be happy with a QB that at least gives you a chance to win in most situation - it has been a long time since the Bills have had that. I am not opposed to trading up to secure a QB prospect in this draft. I can even see the argument to trade 21 and 22 to move up for the right prospect, but I really am leery of giving up more than that. Unfortunately, I don't think that is enough to get Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield. I might be content to 21 and a 2nd to move up a little and take Jackson or Rudolph and still have pick 22 left. I am also not as down on Josh Allen as many here? I haven't watched as many games as some here, but I think that both Jackson and Rudolph are better than they are generally being given credit for.

I never said that having extra draft picks is a bad thing. I also know very well that really good players have been found in every round of the draft and as UDFAs. What I have been saying is that the Bills are not as rich in picks as some seem to think.

I know that Darnold is considered a very good prospect, but his 13 interceptions and 11 fumbles this year would make me think very hard before I would be willing to trade what it would take to get high enough in the draft to get him. That is an awful lot of turnovers in one season...

Wouldn''t be opposed to sitting tight and taking Rudolph or Jackson or other QB at 21 and then following up maybe as early as the 3rd with a Mike White or Kyle Lauletta. The implication being that they would think White or Lauletta was a significant upgrade over Peterman - if not, then no

We are in total alignment. I was just feeling that there is this prevailing opinion (at least some) that the picks the Bills have are more valuable than they really are. I'll admit that my sense of that was formed mostly listening to WGR and a different Rochester sports talk show where the hosts and callers talk as if the Bills have an endless supply of extra picks that can be traded to move up AND to address several other needs.

That isn't quite what I was saying. I am not saying that only top 10 picks are valuable. I was saying that the picks that the Bills do have, though nice, is not a treasure trove of untold riches. In other words, I am very glad that they have the extra picks, they can be useful and I hope they get good value out of them either in trade up or in using them all. I was just highlighting that the Bills picks are 21,22, 53, 56 and 96 (or close to that). That isn't nearly as valuable as picks 1, 2, 32, 33, and 65 - all of which are in the same round as the Bills' picks.

That is absolutely my point. For example, the Bills' 3rd round pick is 96 overall (or close to that), that isn't as valuable as pick 67 which is also in the same round. I didn't say that the picks are not valuable, only that there seems to be a prevailing perceptions that they are so flush with valuable picks that they can accomplish anything that they want in the draft. My only point was that they don't have the buying power that it seems some people think. For comparison, Cleveland has crazy draft capital with picks 1, 4, 33, 35, 64.

Your right, I don't think that those 2nd round picks are without value, but they aren't the same as having 2 picks high in round 2. All that I am really saying is that it seems some are saying that the Bills have 2 1sts, 2 2nds a 3rd, 4th and two 5ths without acknowledging that the 2 #1s are in the bottom 1/3 of the round, the 2 #2s are in the bottom 1/3 of that round and the 3rd is the very last pick in that round. If we follow the draft value chart posted earlier in the thread, the Bills' 2 1sts are roughly equivalent to the 4th or 5th pick in round 1 and the Bills' 2 2nd round picks together are worth about the same as the 29th pick in round 1. That is certainly nothing to sneeze at, just less than I think many believe. Now, with the demand for QBs, I think it will cost more than the Bills' 2 1sts to get into the top 5 to nab a QB. If they were able to trade only their 2 1sts to get Rosen, Darnold or, maybe, Mayfield I'd be happy.

Nice job. Qualitatively you have shown that once you get out of the very top of round one, it is pretty hard to find a good QB. I think what you did shows that quite well.

I did not mean to imply that I was some super scout. I do think that Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield are good, maybe very good prospects, but IF the Bills were to trade up high enough to get one of them, it will leave very little left to address other needs. i know that no prospect is perfect, but I would be leery of trading 2 1sts and a 2nd (maybe more) for any of them. With Rosen you have to worry if he really wants to play, Darnold had a ton of turnovers this year and Mayfield's height might be a problem in the NFL. Sure, I'd be happy to have any of the 3, but at how high of a price? i am hoping that they can make a small move up to get someone like Jackson or Rudolph and still have 2 1st and at least one 2nd left. I agree with the theme of your post. If they don't trade a lot to move up for a QB, I think they can get some good players -or- they can trade a lot and hopefully get a QB but little other help. My main argument is that they likely can't do both.

That is what I was trying to say in this thread.

I could also cite upside anomalies picked later in the draft ad nauseum. Are you suggesting that a 3rd round pick(like Wilson) is as likely to find a good starting QB as a high first round pick? Nobody would argue that there isn't some small chance that you can find a valuable player late in the draft or even as an undrafted FA. That is not the same as saying that it doesn't matter where in the draft you pick - you have an equal chance of finding a good QB.

I am not arguing that the Bills don't have ammo to improve the overall roster, but the notion that they have some awesome amount of picks that will let them trade up to get any QB that they want is fallacious. Further, their selections in round 2 and especially round 3 are underwhelming.