BADOLBILZ

I like that comp. Reminds me of how much more in-tune with player capabilities the average fan can be now with all of the metrics that separate player strengths and weaknesses. Because most of TSW would have insisted Kelsay was a run-stuffing base DE back in the day just because he didn't get many sacks. I am assuming that's a link to his RAS.........which won't open on my apple products for whatever reason so here is a link: https://ras.football/2020/02/11/casey-toohill-ras/

What fans should take away from this is the importance of positional value in the draft. That's what a 25 year old WR with the *potential* to play any of the 3 receiver positions but who has still only averaged just a bit less than 800 yards and 3 TD's per season is worth on the open market. The WR the Bills draft in round 1 could have a market value in excess of $30M in year 2 and then you at least have the option to pick up his 5th year at a set price or use it as leverage to extend his deal with some savings. If you fnd yourself warming up to the idea of using your first round pick on a center like Jackson Powers-Johnson or a safety/CB like Cooper Dejean........just don't.

Yeah he should be more than adequate at center. Penn State and Dallas probably both wanted him at center because the way the game is now the guards have more "opportunity" to block. It's almost a waste putting the better blocker at center. I guess it's kinda' dirty to say it aloud or something but with defenses getting smaller and faster you don't need centers to take on 350# NT's head-up much anymore. Few teams play much true O tech. It's mostly 1 techs and then on obvious passing downs half the time the center doesn't even have anyone to block. Creed Humphrey leads the league in "air blocks" every year on his way to All Pro status. Not a lot of Dexter Lawrence types to really make it necessary to have a true beast at center.

Out of curiosity, why would you all say that you are worrying about a specific number when they could dig up another $50M or more of immediate space if they REALLY needed to and could sign the most expensive free agent left on the market for $5M or less cap hit in 2024? Is that not understood? I suspect it is related to the phenomenon of fans believing that ownership/management that they are satisfied with are of the same mind as them so knowing this very malleable number gives you a clear idea of exactly what they will do with it. Which is a futile exercise for a number of reasons. But are McBeane still in enough of a honeymoon phase with fans that this is still the case? It seems like they've had to have made enough unexpected turns that didn't pan out at this point that after 7 years you'd understand that you aren't of one mind with them.

Yeah Rasul is at the point now where age alone will likely lower his market value. No real advantage to extending him now. Draft another traits guy on day 3 and see if Benford and Elam elevate their games and then decide on Rasul next offseason.

Glad that Cole doesn't have a UCL tear. If platelet rich plasm injections are so good it makes you wonder why pitchers doesn't just get them periodically during the portion of the offseason when they aren't throwing at least. I guess we will see if he makes it back to form this season. On the positive front Luis Gil had a second straight strong outing today against Toronto. This 8K outing was from last week against most of the Phillies "A" lineup. Looks like he could be a very important bullpen arm for them at least. Maybe fill that Michael King role from prior to his switch back to the rotation. Curry and Lorentz were talking about Jonathon Loaisiga being a multi-inning option this year on the broadcast today. GTFOH. Lasagna is lucky to face 3 batters before his arm gets sore. I've been waiting for a month to see this game. Most of the Yankees top prospects from their 6 US minor league teams going against the Blue Jays top prospects. Spencer Jones hit 2 monster HR. I am tempering my enthusiasm for him because I know these big players can struggle to put it together but it's hard not to be impressed. After striking out 30% of the time in the minors last year he went 120 pitches into spring games before he even swung and missed. Seems to have made huge progress. Yankees lefty pitchers Brock Selvidge and Henry Lalane looked great. Jorbit Vivas looks like a legit potential Gleyber Torres or DJ LeMahieur replacement in 2025. Fun to watch, big swing but rarely misses. 2023 first rounder George Lombard looks like he belongs playing with these guys even though he's only 18. Probably the 3B for Yanks at some point in 2026. Caleb Durbin is promising as well and might help the Yanks this season even. The two most "ready" pitching prospects, RHP's Will Warren and Chase Hampton, will pitch tomorrow against the Red Sox.

The Bills averaged 26.5 points per game on the season and missed a chip shot field goal at the end to finish the Chiefs loss with 24. The Chiefs really didn't stop the Bills offense from getting all it was capable of. The Bills just couldn't generate big air yard completions so they had to nibble the Chiefs to death. They stupidly attempted to complete the longest air yard pass tiny target Khalil Shakir would have had on the season on 2nd and 9 after the 2 minute warning instead of just matriculating to the end zone against a tired Chiefs D over 5 to 6 more plays and finishing off a physical domination of the Chiefs defense with what would have been about 40 minutes of possession and 400 yards.

I would have done A LOT of things before I brought Trubisky back. He is certified useless at this point.

Good move for the Steelers. Young, athletic backup with upside. I am sure they think they will be drafting in the 20's next year and not be in line for a top ranked draft eligible QB so they get a chance to see if Fields is a fit and perhaps have an edge in his free agency next offseason. No way he gets that $25M option picked up.

Man, the Bears front office is so reminiscent of the Bills drought braintrust. @PromoTheRobot would be like a pig in sh!t shouting down rightfully angry fans and defending that clown show. 😂

Yeah the whole "he's the 7th best WR so getting the 4th best DE is better" concept is definitely not something that someone who actually follows college football places any stock in. It's something that someone who gets upset about there being a draft thread in November says in March when they suddenly begin to care. The 7th ranked WR in a given draft might be more impactful than the top ranked QB.......let alone a non-premium position.

It's not that simple. John Brown in prime Cole Beasley in prime DK Metcalf going into year 2 That's a NICE looking WR corps in 2020. Beane just backed himself into a corner by passing on DK/Brown. 2020 was a great WR draft. They could have easily moved up for Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb.......which would have been my preference..........probably even with a comparable package to what they sent to Minnesota for Diggs. I was a big fan of Jefferson(though not as much as Jeudy/Lamb for sure) even though @GunnerBill thought he was a big slot only and he would have been my pick there if they couldn't move up for Jeudy or Lamb the way the board fell. I wasn't high on Aiyuk or Reagor but Tee Higgins was also there and I wouldn't have passed on him if Jefferson were gone. Beane might have passed on WR altogether. I said at the time that the big downside of Diggs was that he would eat up 8 figures of cap space immediately and that they would soon feel pressure to extend him. I'm not saying it's worked out badly by any means but there was always the understanding that that draft was full of WR1 types who would be cost controlled and allow the Bills more financial flexibility than paying a vet. It's also notable that Diggs game was elevated in Buffalo.........he was very good but not the All Pro version he became when the Bills got him. And let's say that Jeudy/Lamb/Jefferson/Higgins failed to perform great in Buffalo.........then maybe the Bills are in play for a veteran like Davante Adams when he gets dealt. Diggs has been an excellent player but it wasn't an acquisition without drawbacks.

Yeah the ability to turn a short pass into a HR is the single thing that the Bills lost most when John Brown fell off and wasn't retained. This trick paid huge dividends in home games versus the Ravens, Seahawks and Rams and the start point of this clip which is a TD against the Jets. Shakir is a tremendous RAC guy but he does it a bit more like a RB where he uses the defenders aggression/leverage against them........he doesn't have the juice to just go from 0 to 60 like this. Defense's often give the Bills this play........that's why it hurts when it's to Diggs for no yards or a drop.

PSA If you don't follow the draft or college football in general like @st pete gogolak don't try to drop zingers about the draft years later. The issue wasn't whether Beane could get to Justin Jefferson in round 1. It wasn't a surprise that he was available at the Bills draft position. The unanticipated was that Jefferson would turn into a true WR1. Let alone the best WR in the NFL. So rather than drop a cringey fail-zinger just take the layup. The issue that forced Beane to pick the low hanging fruit of Diggs in that WR-rich draft was his insistence on reaching up for need at a non-premium position with Cody Ford in the draft prior instead of taking a chance on the high ceiling WR prospects like DK Metcalf and AJ Brown.

Yeah I am guessing @Royale with Cheese is trying out a new technique. Like when Dice put out "The Day The Laughter Died" and refused to tell the nursery rhymes to the crowd. An artist has to explore. Personally, I am going to dabble back into "sub-illumination" the rest of the offseason. Which is understating an overwhelming strength in your argument to disorient your adversary. They badly want to tell you that you are wrong but to do so they have to actually address a fact that damns their side of the argument to do it. Like "what do you mean, Allen had 38 total TD's last year, he was awesome"

If Terry Pegula knew just a *little* bit more about football this could have been our fate as Bills fans. The fact that he didn't and started to get a taste of the embarrassment with the Rex debacle inclined him to turn ops over to McDermott and Beane. Fortunately Pegula's sporting confidence was in his hockey opinions otherwise establishing an all-time NHL record for consecutive seasons of missing the playoffs may have equally manifested itself on the football field as well. These super-rich new owners like Tepper all in some from seem to think that they can use their business acumen to get over on all these other owners even though they've rigged it to prevent their business tactics from impacting the standings. It's like a right of passage for them to gently advise and then watch the new guy run around in circles and tire himself out if he wants to.

Every one of those players you mentioned cost A LOT to acquire/sign. Whaley was a good pro personnel man. He didn't have full control of football OPS and the checkbook like McBeane were given by Pegula so he ended up operating with a smaller budget. So in addition to getting credit for signing future All Pro's Hyde and Poyer to great deals here are some of Whaley's other pro personnel gems: Tyrod.........$2M deal turned in a Pro Bowl season Lorenzo Alexander........ $885K turned into 12.5 sacks 76 tackles 22 QB hits and an All Pro second team Zach Brown........$1.25M lead NFL in tackles and also All Pro second team Try as he might Beane hasn't had even one value signing pan out anywhere close to those 5. Beane is the much better GM and more specifically a tremendous executive/confidence man...........but there isn't any comparison with regard to pro personnel(which was Whaley's specialty).

Yeah what the diminishing returns at WR have done is reduce Allen's effectiveness as a passer and put a lot of hard miles on his body. Allen broke out in 2020 but that wasn't supposed to be the pinnacle of his career............that's just what it's turned out to be. He hasn't even come very close to matching that year as a passer in any regard.........passer rating, completion %, TD% or INT% you name it he has been significantly worse. His passing yardage per game in 2023 was over 30 yards less than 2020...........at some point the fact that the good things are trending down and the bad things are trending up matters. The common denominator in the decline has been the consistent decline in the quality of receiving targets.

I am envisioning a Vikings board with someone posting that story about the 2021 49ers WR coach telling Trent he should be starting over Brandon Aiyuk. Politics! 😂

Thanks but I liked @FireChans "don't p!ss on our heads and tell us it's raining better" though. It's a message board we are going to draw distinctions between winning SB's versus getting beaten in the divisional round every year. If you think it's all the same level of accomplishment.........that's your prerogative to feel that way but the objective of the game is, in fact, to win the SB. The standard is the standard and accepting that and "not enjoying" the ride are not necessarily the same thing. Not that this past season was a joy ride for everyone involved with or following the Bills. I mean ask Ken Dorsey if he'd have liked to have DHop.

They hadn't exhausted their ability to create space by any means. You have to understand this by now, don't you? It's all entertainment to me. Winning a SB doesn't change my fandom one bit but it's the objective of playing the game so I'd like to see them reach that. So save your "enjoy the ride" for whoever is riding you. Speaking of which where is @Sherlock Holmes? I miss his commentary.

They aren't really comparable though.........DHop is in another tier altogether and is a true outside receiver and 14-15 yards per reception type deep threat. There would have been no redundancy with DHop going into 2024 as DHop can excel at either outside position and Gabe would have been on the way out. Samuel would have even actually been an excellent addition to a Diggs/DHop/Shakir mix(knowing Diggs and/or DHop would be on their way out in 2026) and at $8M aav it wouldn't necessarily have been an either-or situation with their AAV's only combining for around $20M. The problem with Samuel is that he isn't really a guy you can just line up outside every down. His versatility is a selling point but his inability to be a "one" at either outside spot is why his career production is more modest than his athleticism and metrics like the separation and initial route speed numbers posted in this thread would suggest it should be. Yeah, the QB matters but for top starters like DHop the quality of QB doesn't show up in the form of tamped down stats. I know we have a lot of people out there who want to poo-poo the importance of the X position but having strength there forces defense's to defend a much bigger field. Samuel isn't really a big threat downfield. He's just not. I like his addition a lot and at $8M I don't expect him to be a stud but he gets small downfield. And if defense's don't fear your deep throw ability they will start squatting and taking away the YAC potential on shorter throws. That's how the NFL works.

Yeah not getting DHop was just idiotic. Hopkins was extraordinary AGAIN in 2023 despite a totally unstable QB situation. I like Samuel and the nice thing is that he likely has that 600 yard kinda "floor" but might also have the upside to be a poor man's Diggs replacement in 2025 if they decide to cut bait from Stefon. It just would have been so much simpler to have a full size outside WR like Hopkins. I understand there was some risk with Hopkins but his skillset was pretty unique and man..............could that offense have been explosive.

Yeah, as I said, just too expensive at this stage of his career. Bills can re-visit this in 24 months when the Jags release him to save cap space.

There is a lot of WR talent in this draft..........but if you want(and I quote you) "the best player" you better trade up because you are looking at WR 6-8 at pick #28. I already addressed the speed issue. The Bills sorely lack elite speed and a deep threat but even if you have that in house those are traits you can stack. That's not what McConkey is. He isn't going to be a 20 yards per reception threat like DeSean Jackson was entering the NFL. If the draft dropped off at WR after McConkey and if upcoming drafts looked bereft of WR talent then maybe you don't worry about the redundancy of short-intermediate receivers but that's not the case. I want traits that can elevate the offense to another level. Maybe McConkey turns out to be that guy to replace Diggs but it's not like the cupboard is bare at 6' short-intermediate WR after he's off the board. And next year's draft will be excellent at WR. And the following. And then the 2026 draft will be off the chain at WR. There are a lot of them coming.