Thurman#1

Yup. Great job!!

I agree with most of your post. And of course we can cut some guys and save some money. But you mention cutting Sanders? He's not under contract for next year. No savings there at all. Same with Addison. And you mention cutting Star, Morse, and Klein next year. If we were to do that, there are no obvious replacements on the roster at this point who could perform at the same level. So if we cut those three we would also have to bring in replacements, especially for Star and Klein. Perhaps Feliciano could move over to center but then who would take over at guard? Is that guy on the roster? Maybe. But maybe not. Because they didn't draft a speace-eater this year, cutting Star would either mean playing a rookie or a vet min journeyman or paying somebody probably what we would save on Star, or very close anyway. Not drafting anyone there lowered the odds on Star not being there next year. It's early but that's how it looks right now.

Yeah, right. And so are credit cards and the fact that if you charge too much you'll be in trouble down the road. This will make things difficult for them next year. But not impossible. They spent this offseason tying things down with most of their core guys at core positions. They will still be able to make some moves to relieve things next year, though it will cost them down the road. The long-term deal for Josh, as one example, could save them a few bucks off next year's cap. The tough thing about this is that the cap difficulties forced on all NFL teams by COVID's effects on stadium attendance fell at just the absolute wrong time for us, reducing available cap at just the last two years when we have Josh at non-astronomical rookie contract rates. It greatly reduces our flexibility at a crucial time. It's a shame. But we'll be fine in the long run because Beane hasn't kicked absolutely every can down the road the way that some teams would have.

Yes, this. Precisely.

Nonsense. Early in his career here he made terrific financial decisions. He cleared up the Whaley cap problems as quickly as was reasonably possible, and by his third year he'd gone from big cap problems to large amounts of space. This has been a tower of strength in his term. He's been brilliant financially. Only a very few questionable moves, none much worse than questionable. Not a single awful financial decision. His personnel decisions have also been good, but not at such a high level of consistency as his financial decisions. Nor could they be, really.

He didn't want to be here at the money they were willing to give him.

Right, so two who've underperformed a bit when forced into different roles than they were expected to play because of the opt-out of Lotulelei, Addison who has been OK, Klein who overperformed, Norman who was pretty good when uninjured, and two very promising draftees who are young and on an upward trajectory and appear to be headed towards being very good. And strangely, you left out Jordan Phillips, who vastly outplayed his contract, Lorax's new contract, and a bunch of other nice cheap signings of depth guys who worked out well. Not to mention that with many of those guys playing very significant minutes in 2019 this defense was outright elite, and that after the new guys came in before the 2020 season and essentially missed the offseason they still got things together even after Lotulelei's optout meant they had to drastically shift things around and put guys in different roles to try to get things working ... they still managed to get things in order and when Oliver and Edmunds started to get healthy after the first six games or so, they were a top ten defense the rest of the way PPG and YPG. So yeah, you're not especially right. This defense was terrific in 2019 and quite good the last 5/8ths of the season. Not to mention all the offensive guys they brought in as well. There's a reason he's now taking the next step up in what looks like a promising career.

There's nothing in the story about it. There are so many other possible reasons to quit a job. Maybe he's got a personality clash with someone there. I can't imagine him coming back, myself.

Agreed that no defense is afraid of Singletary. But realistically, there are maybe seven or eight RBs league-wide that actually cause fear. Is it ten, maybe? I don't know, possibly, but not more. Singletary at his best is a very good back, though not a home run threat. Even last year he was pretty solid. Moss was even better than that by the end of the year. Antonio Williams we don't really know who he is. He sure doesn't cause fear either. I agree that I'm pretty comfortable this year with Breida making it an interesting foursome. I absolutely expect Singletary to be better. But how much better is extremely hard to say.

IMO this isn't some next-level genius response to the current state of defenses in the NFL today. It's just what teams who don't have a good QB tend to do. And always have. Look at the 2017 Bills. 476 passes and 487 runs with Tyrod behind center. Or the next year when we went 51.6% passing. The next year Allen started to get acceptable and they cranked up the passing a bit more to 52.5%. and last year Allen is excellent, we're killing everyone through the air and they go seriously pass-heavy. The first couple of years here people were complaining how last decade the Bills offense was and how this proved that McDermott was a dinosaur. You don't pass as much when you aren't confident that your QB can consistently be successful in the pass game. If the Pats manage to start doing better at passing, they'll pass more.

That is a false dichotomy. It's like saying you can get married or be alone for the rest of your life. There are actually an infinity of other alternatives. Our choice will actually be something like the difference between a 55:45 ratio or a 60:40 ratio. They're both important.

Yes. Love it! Yeah.

Correct. They do indeed need to pick up the option on one of their better players, a two-time Pro Bowler, which is why they did it. He is a wizard, but this decision didn't require a wizard. Anybody who was even halfway-smart would have done something to keep Edmunds. Not really. The cap constrained them some every year. They were prevented year after year from doing some of the things that made sense. People say that GMs "work magic" with the cap. They don't. What they do is basically completely analogous to putting more of your expenses on your credit card. Which then limits how much you can spend next month. When next month gets here, you can't spend as much. Yes, if you've paid a bit off you can still charge yet more to the next month. But there's a limit. Keep your credit debt near the credit limit and you absolutely will be forced to make compromises. Yeah, the Saints were always able to field a full team, and yeah they could do a few things each year by kicking cans downwind. But that was a team that did an excellent job drafting and yet only got over the hump once with one of the greatest QBs in the modern game. Their cap problems were a real part of that. If you're just about at your credit limit on your cards, you're still not going to starve to death. But yeah, you'll be in line at the supermarket aiming at buying the foods you want and when you get declined, you'll end up buying ramen instead of chicken filet. You won't die, but what you can do will be greatly constrained. Same with teams and the cap.

I would've loved one late, but he probably didn't have anyone ranked as high, or for that matter have the position ranked as high as he had safety and CB. I'm still guessing they bring in a big but cheapish backup in free agency.

And yet another silly argument. Snacks absolutely was singled out. He was singled out in that he was one of the few space-eating DTs with a solid pedigree who was actually available after Star opted out ... on July 28th. Outside of Snacks, who were all the space-eating 1-techs who the Bills could have brought in after that? There were a few dregs and drabs, but there just weren't guys good enough to do the job. Snacks was pretty much the only one with much of a name. He was singled out by his circumstances. The likely reason they weren't connected with FAs or prospects in the 2019 offseason is that they thought they had Star until July 28th. This year, they do have Star coming back. And yet, in this year's draft, they were connected with a couple of DTs. Astro connects guys to the Bills based on his knowledge of Bills visits, and he connected them with Shelvin, Marvin Wilson, Tonga, Bobby Brown and Jonathan Marshall. If they weren't connected with any space-eating DTs it's probably because, again, they have Star coming back and they had little money left for FAs after they brought back their own guys. You may well have said last year that maybe they prefer a schematically-induced double team. People say nutty things all the time. If they preferred this, they would never have brought in Star in the first place. They certainly wouldn't have guaranteed his contract for another year. Sorry, it was a wacky idea when you first said it, and it still is.

Sigh. No, nobody - not a single person - has "insisted that the problems the Bills DL had were ALL because of losing Star," as you wildly wail above. Not one person. As usual, you're throwing out wild exaggerations and straw men in a desperate attempt to make a point ... any point. What many people have said on the other hand, is that Star's loss was a major factor in the DL's problems. Not that it caused all the problems. Just that it was a major factor. Among people taking this position were Brandon Beane, when he said in the after-season press conference that they were very light on the DL this year and that it caused problems. The 2019 schedule was indeed easy. But the Bills defense allowed nearly every team far less than their average that year, in both yards and points. They were a terrific defense in 2019. You can ask pretty much anyone about this, around the league, except perhaps for a small cabal of miserablists here on this board who find the worst to think about everything Bills-related. You keep moaning about the pay cut. Yet again, there were concessions on both sides. Star gave up $1.75M on his 3rd year of a $50M contract, and the Bills guaranteed an extra year and on top of that guaranteed yet another year against injury. Those are concessions on both sides. Star was very good in 2019, as well as 2018. Not at racking up statistics, as so many on here require. The role they ask him to fill does not demand a lot of stats. They signed him knowing the type of player he was, because he fills a role that McDermott needs filled on this defense. He'll never tally up a ton of stats. He'll never be a three-down guy because he doesn't threaten sacks. He just lets the LBs run free and eats up double teams and blockers, which is what they need him to do, what they signed him to do. It would be great if he did also rush the passer well, but he'd also be more expensive. They knew what they were getting. They coached the guy in Carolina. And they made a point to bring him to Buffalo.

So, very good for filliing the role they need, then. Excellent. They should take a look.

Very unlikely that early. Milano was killing Humber in his rookie year's camp. Humber started. They like guys with experience in the system to start. Anything's possible, but the way to bet is that the best case scenario for Rousseau is taking the job halfway though the year and most likely scenario is that he doesn't start this year at all. You'll be disappointed? Fair enough, but get ready to be disappointed.

I don't see starts for those two pass rushers, barring injury. But yeah, they should be part of the rotation unless something goes very wrong. I think you're right about Stevenson maybe returning kicks. Good way to frame this. Many were down on the trade for Watkins. I was. Very few weren't still excited to see him ripping up defenses in a Bills jersey. I certainly was. Hated the trade, loved the player. Then the games happened.

Yup. It's undoubtedly due to opting out and working away from the facilities. Because we never hear about players injured working out in normal years. I've never heard such a thing before. I see James' doctors say he might not be season ending. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/05/04/report-jawuan-james-might-not-miss-entire-season/ Hope that's right.

Permit me to disagree when you say that we have enough cap to just pay Edmunds next year. Have you checked our 2022 available cap since they decided to give Edmunds and Josh their 5th year options? We have $1,147,046 available for 2022 according to Spotrac, expecting a salary cap of $192.5M. That's not a misprint or a mistake. Paying Allen and Edmunds puts them $1.1M above the cap for 2022. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2022/ And that is with only 20 guys under contract for much more than vet min (I put the cutoff at $1M). And not yet having signed our drafted rookies. This money situation is going to make it tough on them next year. Yet they paid Edmunds. Because they really really like him and think he's worth it. Oh, and last year 17 of 32 exercised the options, and the year before it was also 17. It's not real difficult to google it if you want to go back further. "How many NFL first rounders had 5th year option picked up 2017?" was how I googled it. Took about 10 seconds to find an article.

Kelce can say hello, but it wasn't like they just put Edmunds on him. That was a failure of the whole defense. And the idea that a two-time Pro Bowler given a $12M option is average is dumb. So is the idea that Beane gives an average guy $12M hoping maybe he'll get better.

I think it's a bit more than that, personally. I think he was a bit of a locker room problem for Carroll later in his stay in Seattle. He seemed to think that he and the defensive corps had the right to do anything, including directly and publicly criticize and obstruct Carroll and Russell Wilson. He went on publicly about how Carroll was treating Wilson differently, how Carroll should have given the ball to Marshawn, and so on. And he crystallized a lot of the D guys together into almost an anti-Carroll block. Of course your starting elite QB is going to be treated a bit differently. That's why they have red jerseys. Those guys, top franchise QBs are absolutely different. Sherman didn't get that. While the salary cap also had a lot to do with the breakup of that team, the obstruction Carroll experienced from that D also had a part in it. Having said that, since then he's been no problem. Looks to me like he grew up after that. You can disagree with your coach, but you keep it in-house, you talk privately with him, and you understand that he outranks you. From what I can tell, he's learned that lesson. But there was a while when he appeared to be directly causing locker room problems. At this point in his career, I wouldn't mind him at all. But he won't be a vet min type guy and I'm not sure it would be enough of an upgrade for them to bring him in. If they think so, I'll yield to their expertise. What they've got appears to be a solid group. And I'd fully expect them to bring in a couple more guys for competition. IMO, no problem.

Future commitments of cash, whether or not they're guaranteed, can be traded away. The team that acquires the guy will acquire the commitment. Commitments of cash that have already been met (in other words, money that's already been paid to the player) can not be traded away. Signing bonuses or roster bonuses or anything already paid must be accounted for on the cap of the team that paid the money.

Thoughtful post, obviously coming from a good place. Thank you for the kind words. I guess that there's so much hate of Edmunds from the same group of people that I end up balling it all together and treating it as one source, one phenomenon. I shouldn't do that so much. A lot of the is knee-jerk scapegoating. Most of it, IMO. But that doesn't mean there aren't some thoughtful people who simply disagree. If I've got a problem in my behavior, it's that I tend towards being cranky and brusque in my writing. Oughta be more diplomatic and amiable. I work on it, but I generally disappoint myself. I often write cranky posts and then go back fifteen minutes later to soften things. A lot of time the person has already seen it and it's too late. If I offended you, I'm genuinely sorry. I still disagree with a lot of what you said, though. What do I think about Star and why they gave him the money? It's clear to me that they gave him the money because he was worth it, that he's done a very good job here, and that he was greatly missed last year, particularly early as they struggled to take guys they'd expected to put in roles better suited to their skill sets and instead spent a long time trying to figure out how to replace what they'd lost with Star. Having nobody like him, they had a very hard time doing it, but in so doing they also played guys out of position, changed roles and generally changed how their D that had been extremely successful the year before worked. Yeah they then with money problems asked for $1.75M back in the third year of his $50M contract, also giving him an extra year's guarantee and a year beyond that guaranteed against injury. Both sides got something from that. And yeah, they gave Addison the money. It's a lot harder to predict how a guy will fit and play in your D when he hasn't been in your locker room for years as Tremaine has. As for Edmunds and the money, McDermott is a top-flight defensive mind. I honestly don't know how anyone can argue that. And he supports and works to keep Edmunds here. He does that because the guy does what McDermott sees as his job. Not perfectly. But very well. Plenty here don't like his style, they obviously want a different style of guy. Many want a pounder, the old-fashioned type of MLB. He'll never be that. I do watch Edmunds play and I did think he was a legit pro bowl caliber player ... after he recovered from his injury. So did the Pro Bowl voters. We can't say for sure about Pro Bowl status, but it's a decent bet that so did Beane and McDermott if they paid him $12M for an off-ball LB. But they're not the only ones. The fact is, that's the consensus. Most people think so. I didn't keep track of off-ball LB play throughout the AFC. Can't speak directly to that. But I do keep track of play generally, and there are a bunch of good LBs there in the AFC. How well they played last year specifically I don't know. But after the first six weeks or so, as Edmunds' arm got better and McDermott schemed around the loss of Star and found band-aids and stopgaps that stopped most of the bleeding, Edmunds played very well. Again, I can't compare to other ILBs around the AFC this particular year, but very well. I haven't kept track of your status on Tremaine. You don't come across here as a hater, though obviously I thought you did a bit in the last one. You do come across as a person who is drastically underestimating Edmunds. As far as the hater thing, there are a bunch of them out there. From this post, you do not appear to be one of them. People here come across like villagers with pitchforks on Edmunds, Star and to a lesser degree, Ed Oliver. And I don't understand why. When they had Star in 2019, had a 2nd year Edmunds and a rookie Oliver, they were an elite defense, and we still heard constant criticism from this certain group despite overwhelming, well-deserved praise of the D from around the league. Last year they started with injuries to Oliver and Edmunds and with the optout of Star. The D started very slow but as Oliver and Edmunds got healthy and McDermott found ways to scheme a 1-tech rather than having Star eat space, they became a top ten D. I really don't get it. This is a good group.