Thurman#1

I disagree. IMO there are plenty of situations it would make sense. Say they have a group of four or five guys they want. Yeah, they'd be guaranteed to get one at #3. But assuming four QBs get picked early, they would be guaranteed to get one of their four guys if they are at eight or one of their five guys if they are at nine. So if their best situation is picking up Pitts or Chase, but they have two or three others in their next tier, they wait till they're on the clock. If Pitts or Chase are there, they pick. If not they trade back and still get a guy from their second tier and some more picks besides.

This FO has a history of wanting to have a pick in each round (or earlier). Meaning 1,2,2,4 would count, as the second 2 is even better than having a 3rd. Under Beane, the only time they haven't done this was in trading away the 1st last year for Diggs. They seem to like having a shot at each cohort of guys. That's why I think that if it makes sense they'll trade back and try to pick up a 4th.

I don't think any teams do it that way, switching their emphasis that way year by year, and for good reason. First, the idea that everyone takes three years doesn't make any sense. Some do. Some don't. Some can be seen early as not what you want and dropped. The way this works it that you need to keep the pipeline filled all the time. Matt Milano was a 5th; did he take three years? Did it take us three years to decide on Vosean Joseph or Austin Proehl? More, while we're mostly set on starters and backups, there are a bunch of other guys needed for STs who need to be refreshed nearly every year. But the way to maximize your roster overall is to maximize the number of draft picks. The more chances you have the higher the chances of getting someone who overperforms. I do have a great deal of faith in the FO. They're extremely capable. But I think that the way they make the trade up or trade down or stay decision is based far more on what is available at the time each pick comes up than on any yearly strategy.

We absolutely need a lot of developmental players and depth. Beane said they're doing this for contributions this year, more for the long-term than the short. Next year or two there'll be plenty of guys who they have to let go for cap reasons or age. If the replacements are on the roster, on rookie contracts and have a year in the system, that will be huge.

That's not 50 points the Raiders would be giving up. More like 857 to 695, so on the order of 162 points. Next year's 3rd is valued as a 4th this year, and a mid-4th-rounder would be around 50 points. Don't see the Bills giving up a next year's 3rd either. Not unless they then are confident they can turn one of those 3rds this year into a 3rd next year mid-draft.

In the first? More likely back than forward. And if he goes forward it certainly won't be into the teens. That would essentially mean giving up a 2nd or a 3rd or a high pick from next year. He's not going to do that. I mean, if you go from #30 to #18, that's 280 points, which is equivalent to a later 2nd rounder. He's not going to give up that kind of bounty. He has zero history of doing that kind of thing excepting the year when they'd spent the year before accumulating extra picks to go up and get a QB in the 1st. Going up to 23, particularly 25, 27 .. yeah, I can imagine it. Much more likely down, though, IMO. Later in the draft he's shown he's more willing to go up a bit. That's the best guess, I think.

Looks to me like a simple contract disagreement. I think they downgraded a bit at punter, but probably saved some money for use on other positions and players. Hope that works out. Hard to know when we don't know what Bojo was asking for.

When I look at his highlights, I just don't see a guy who looks like he has elite traits. He looks like a good player, but not a freak. I trust Beane, and if he likes the guy I'll try to be open-minded, but I don't see it - with very little real study, admittedly - myself.

"Past Championship teams were aggressive in attaining Pro Bowl caliber running backs and then were rewarded for doing so," he says. Is that how he sees the Clyde Edwards-Helaire situation? Fournette's never been a Pro Bowler. Does anyone think he's pro bowl caliber at this point? Ronald Jones was a second rounder. He had a good year but his first two years were far from great. I don't particularly see great RBs on SB champions till you go back at least to Seattle's championship. EDIT: Ah, I see I'm far from the first to notice this was nonsense. Since the link in the OP doesn't even work, this is likely a sophomoric attempt at humor of some sort.

Oh, hey, that's great news. Good for him.

This wasn't an average defense. It was average or a bit below for the first six games and then quite good, top ten probably, as the season rolled on.

Fair enough. First, a quick look at Beane's opinion, which he's expressed again and again at various times: “Our run defense wasn't always the greatest,” general manager Brandon Beane said after the season. “We lost a little bit of beef inside. We lost Jordan (Phillips) to free agency, but when that happened, we were thinking Star is coming back, and then Star opted out and I think we all saw – you know, I know he's not a 10-sack guy and things like that, but what he provides, not only the run game, but just the ability for our linebackers to roam free, I think took those guys a little time.” https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-position-series-star-lotuleleis-return-creates-numbers-game-at-dt/article_599a55a8-7204-11eb-8e9c-139d55578556.html In 2019 the interior of the defense began to show its true potential, Star was visibly more disruptive as the season progressed, he consistently controlled the line of scrimmage and stood ground against double teams and though he didn’t finish the plays, his presence in the backfield allowed other to reap the benefits. One of these players was second year LB Tremaine Edmunds who was far more impactful than the year prior. Watching the film, he needed to fend off fewer blockers, he appeared to be moving more cleanly in the box; able to utilize his freakish abilities to make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage. He doubled his tackle for a loss production, from 5 to 10 and was certainly more of a downhill force stopping plays before they began. Another recipient of Star’s improved play was rookie DT Ed Oliver, though he struggled with the adjustment early on and was limited in reps by the mid-season point Oliver began living up to his hype. Fans were treated to some flashes of what scouts saw in him during his time at Houston, he was explosive off the ball, he man handled lineman and was active in the backfield. There was a stretch, when things began to click for Oliver, where he recorded a sack in 4 of 6 consecutive games. When highlighting the impact of Star, it would be a disservice not to mention the emergence of Shaq Lawson who had his best year a pro and Jordan Phillips who had a monster year alongside Star, recording 9.5 sacks and earning himself a handsome payday with the Arizona Cardinals. It would also be worth mentioning that both Lawson and Phillips’ production dipped in their first seasons away from Star as well. With Star fulfilling his duties as a block stuffer, a bouncer for Edmunds and Oliver the defense improved from 16th overall to 3rd overall, finishing 10th against the run, fourth against the pass and second in points allowed. Perhaps the Star factor is real? https://coldfrontreport.com/is-star-lotulelei-the-x-factor-for-the-bills-defensive-line/ "But Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, who called Lotulelei “disruptive,” said that the former Panthers tackle was well worth it and is going to be a staple on the team for years to come. “'Obviously he (doesn’t play) a sexy position, but he allows other people around him to make plays,' Alexander said. 'I’ve definitely been able to have a pretty good year this year. A lot of it is contributed to what he’s been able to do as far as keeping guys off me, allowing me to run free.' “"In the pass rush, people can’t step up. On first or second down I know a couple of guys that have gotten sacks throughout the year just because Star has gotten that great push. He’s earned every bit of what he’s got with that five-year deal.' "It’s hard to argue with the results that the Bills defense had this season, finishing the year ranked second in the NFL in total defense and No. 1 in pass defense. "Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier raved about Lotulelei’s first 16 games in Buffalo and explained that his unselfishness allows others to thrive and young players, like linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano, to develop. “'He demands a double team which allows our linebackers to run free and make some of the tackles that people might think the nose tackle should be making,' Frazier said. 'That has been a plus for us, helping our linebackers to improve. But also to help our run defense. He’s done a good job of commanding attention from their interior, their center and their guards. It’s hard to block him one-one-one and that’s what we needed and he’s given us that.' "Lotulelei diverted questions about his impact on the defense in 2018. Instead he shifted the focus to the entire defensive line because everyone bought into the vision of coach Sean McDermott." https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/01/bills-lorenzo-alexander-says-star-lotulelei-earned-every-bit-of-big-contract.html "'When you look at the position he plays, it's the most unselfish position on the football field,' said McDermott. 'In particular the one-technique (defensive tackle), which is typically where he plays. A lot of the times he frees up the linebackers to make plays by absorbing and taking on double teams. I thought our run defense inside, which is where Star works, was mostly solid yesterday. Outside, we could have done some things better, but inside for the most part I think he played a solid game.' "As noted by McDermott, Lotulelei's role is indeed more of as a player who occupies blockers and allows other players on the defense to excel. This is supported by his statistics on the Panthers: Lotulelei generally never had more than 26 combined tackles in a season (Excluding his rookie year where he had 42), and last season recorded only six solo tackles in 16 games started." https://247sports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/Article/Star-Lotulelei-no-tackles-Sean-McDermott-defends-122250809/ "The All-22 coaches film was the best tool to determine the impact Star truly had on the 2018 defense. His play can best be described as disciplined. It may not be sexy, but he is rarely out of position and less often pushed downfield. He was a steady presence in the backfield and owned the middle of the line. His victories at the point of attack generated several plays for a loss even though he did not make the tackle. "No player on the defense was double teamed more often than Lotulelei. Despite double teams, he still would control the line of scrimmage. When he found himself single blocked on rushing plays, teams schemed to run away from him. It was difficult to find much fault in his game even when the Bills were gashed on the ground. For example, in Week 16 when the Patriots put 273 yards on the ground. A majority of their success came off the edge, not up the middle. When they did run up the middle, it was almost exclusively when he was double-teamed. "On passing downs, he effectively pushed the pocket back and allow edge rushers to have an angle to the quarterback. There were times where he flushed the passer from the pocket but was unable to make a play in space. He could improve on shedding blocks as the ball carrier approached. Frequently after dominating upfront, a ball carrier would slip by before he could disengage from the lineman. His ability to always stay on his feet allowed him to trail plays. On which plays he showed excellent hustle, even though he is rarely fast enough to track down the ball carrier. "Overall I came away extremely impressed with the tape. For a player with little statistical evidence to back it up, he was one of the most consistent defenders for Buffalo in 2018. "It is hard to deny that Lotulelei had a significant impact on the Bills’ improved rush defense. However, it can be difficult to justify paying a situational player upwards of $10 million for each of the next four years. With the surplus of cap room, there is no way the Bills would move on from Lotulelei even if he is overpaid in the eyes of many. "For years in Carolina, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis formed an incredible linebacker duo on a dominant defense. Much of their success in smothering rushing attacks was due to playing behind Star. If Edmunds and Milano can make the leap and perform at a similar level, it would go a long way in showing Bills faithful the real value Star provides. Lotulelei will likely never have the statistical production that will justify his massive contract, but the impact he has on his teammates at one the most unselfish positions in football should." https://therunnersports.com/is-star-lotulelei-worth-his-contract/ There was a Buffalo News article that had a ton more mid-season in 2019, but I can't find it. And I don't have more time to look. This is certainly a pretty good summing up, though. And we'll get the same old suspects here saying, "Well, what are they going to say, that he sucks?" Which is just nonsense. The same folks see stuff that's negative and post it, but if it's positive it's got to be lies. It's pure confirmation bias. The fact is, Beane and McDermott often say positive things about their players. But nto always. And no, they would never say that someone "sucks." But yeah, they say negative things sometimes as well. What did they say about the TEs at the end of season presser? Something about nobody worrying about stopping our TEs. They never feel that they are forced to say the kinds of positive things they say here. And they'll very often when not happy with people withhold negative but also not say anything especially positive. Usually along the lines of "He's got some work to do." Asked if they were interested in retaining Josh Norman he never said they had an interest in keeping him.

Could you just real quick find a quotation from Edmunds or Oliver blaming problems on anything? We can wait. If you find a quotation like that, your post will have a tiny little something behind it. But you won't. And it doesn't. It isn't Edmunds or Oliver making excuses. It's sensible football people, none of whom play for the Bills. And noting that teams are way way more complex than you're pretending here is only acknowledging reality and understanding what happens on the field. Would you make the same argument about how badly Mahomes played in the Super Bowl? I mean, he was a first-round pick. According to your logic he didn't need better OL play to win that game. He should have elevated the performance of the people around him, including that OL. The idea is dumb. Even the best players in the league need the people around them to play well if they're going to maximize performance. That's why they're called football "teams."

No, not particularly. It's more about motivation. A reason doesn't have a motivation. It's just an explanation or cause. Whereas the purpose of an excuse is to justify a mistake or problem or fault. People without much of an argument generally refer to reasons as excuses. Not about themselves, of course, but about people they don't like.

Edmunds played quite well against Baltimore. 9 tackles, 2 QB hits and a pass defensed, but it was fairly obvious to people who watched the film. Just as one example, Buscaglia had him with a B+, the 7th best player on the team in that game. https://theathletic.com/2335118/2021/01/20/bills-ravens-josh-allen-dion-dawkins-matt-milano/ He played poorly against KC, no question. But how many LBs playing in zone coverage against Pat Mahomes when he's getting a ton of time to throw have played all that well?

Which is one of many many reasons why you're not an NFL GM. It's certainly not a sure thing, but he is indeed quite likely to get the 5th year option. They like him, and for good reason.

This is absolute nonsense. They're one of the better drafting teams over the past four years, as various league-wide surveys have established. Here's one: https://twitter.com/Colts/status/1367876148793913345/photo/1 The Allen pick isn't luck. Or at least not more luck than any pick successful pick. It was a terrific pick. Calling it lucky shows more about how desperately you're trying to spin things than it does about the pick. Picking Allen was an excellent move, and they get full credit for it. And even if you leave Allen out of it, the whole roster has gotten much better, much more consistent, better depth, and more talent.

This is mostly overstated. Once healthy, Edmunds and Oliver played really well. Epenesa once he began to get it, really started to play pretty well. Those three played up to expectations Phillips too, though it's fairer to question his season. I'd say he lived up to expectations, in that reasonable expectations did indeed factor in the fact that his injury does take time to recover from. Having said that, all need to step up this season, as does every player, really. That's the nature of pro football in the growth phase that comes at the beginning of careers till you reach career middle age.

Makes total sense to me. They traded up to #6 targeting Pitts and Chase. They'll likely get one of them, but it's not 100% sure. So if both are gone - again, unlikely - why not give strong consideration to picking up some extra picks if they get a good offer?

This is not exactly original, but a pass rusher.

What is the purpose of a smokescreen there? Think they're going to smokescreen the Jags or Jets out of Lawrence or Wilson? That's not happening. So the only other reason for a smokescreen would be if they're now looking to trade back down again. IMO unless they already have something lined up, they're not going to smokescreen a team into Jones. What most people are saying about Jones isn't so much that he's the better QB as that he's the better QB for Shanahan's offense. I can't see a situation where a smokescreen there would help them much. The three picks in front of the Dolphins last year were significantly more fluid than the two in front of SF this year. I don't know, I can't see it. I think it's people genuinely believing it's Mac, though possibly mistaken.

You don't trade three first rounders plus for a non-QB. It would be utterly crazy. Like if the house is offering you one-to-one odds on picking one number on a roulette wheel, and you take it and bet all your money on it ... that kind of crazy. So I say there's no doubt they go QB there. Which one? My guess is Mac. It's not that confident a guess, though. Based on what kind of QB he's gravitated towards and succeeded with in the past. The only alternative to a QB I can seriously imagine is that they trade out from three and collect picks and a guy they like better than they would have liked the #12 pick. But IMO that's wildly unlikely.

Oh, nonsense. Of course there was lamentation when Phillips was injured. We run a platoon system and the platoon guys was gone. As for your argument that Lotulelei played lower snaps that year, yet more dumb crap. He played 47% of snaps in 2018. Then in the year you're talking about, 2019 he dropped ... all the way down to 46%. Holy mackerel!! He dropped 1%!!!! That's huge ... to a person who doesn't get it. And they didn't cut his pay, they negotiated a deal where his pay on his $50M contract was dropped in his third year by $1.75M, and he received an extra year of guaranteed salary and a year beyond that of salary guaranteed against injury. Both sides came out of that with some benefits. Sure, there were other issues on defense last year. But Lotulelei's absence was absolutely huge. And great point that in the Colts game they in your opinion "dissected a predictable scheme." That dissection is what held a team averageing 28.2 points per game to 24 points? Only four teams last year held the Colts offense to less than 24 points. Those other 12 teams would have loved to have the Colts offense "dissect" their defense to a 24 point total. I know I just felt awful on that last drive when the Colts got the ball down by three points with 2:30 left on the clock and the Bills D just crushed the life out of them, not even allowing them close to field goal range. I was jumping up and down and shouting, "Yeah, Colts offense, keep 'dissecting' them that way!!"

If by a "Beane truther," you mean a guy who sees - correctly - that Beane is doing an absolutely terrific job, then yeah, I'm a Beane truther. As frankly is anyone with half a functional brain. If you mean that I think Lotulelei is literally irreplaceable, no, I certainly don't think that. Nor should anyone. But do I think Lotulelei is really good at the limited work they expect of him, as the Bills think, then yeah, I absolutely think that. Again, as should everyone. No, he'll never be a three-down guy, and no, he'll never rack up a ton of tackles either. He's not a particularly athletic guy. He's instead a powerhouse who can stop himself from being moved where people want to move him, even if there are two guys trying. That's rare. Not as rare as the unicorns who are both strong enough to be a space eater and also athletic enough to penetrate. But still rare to find guys with that level and the ability to eat blockers. But they knew who he was when they signed him, having had him on their previous team for years. They wanted him to eat blocks and free up the LBs. He ate blocks and freed up the LBs. And it's difficult to find guys who can do that. There aren't that many of them out there. It's Parcells' Planet Theory. Not so many guys are that big and coordinated or strong enough to act as a space eater. Irreplaceable? Absolutely not. Hard to replace? Yes, of course. Virtually impossible to replace well as late in the year-long calendar as the optouts came, on July 28th, just before the start of camp? Yeah.

Polite, non-aggressive disagreement. IMO we've got a class that is less developed than any in history, a class that missed many games and activities of their senior season. We just don't know as well as usual what we've got. And they're not as far along the road as most have historically been. They'll require more work.