Thurman#1

No, he's not saying that. This isn't a "this year only" thing. It's how he operates. He's never been a guy who kicks a lot of cans, never. This is the way he is going to try to operate. And we've seen one thing about him and that's that he doesn't compromise his principles because he sees a cookie in the store window that looks delicious. Yeah, he chased hard after JJ Watt ... and then immediately backed out when it turned out the contract Watt wanted was a big splash. He does indeed want to control the narrative. He has also followed that rule since he got here. And you're right that there are no absolutes, but this rule isn't an absolute. He's going to kick some cans down the road. But not too many. Not as many as a certain group of the fans would like him to ... check that, it's more than that those fans wouldn't just like him to, it's that they're constantly barking for him to do it. And explaining how he can create $30M more in cap space.

Yes, if need be. Not if he sees another shiny toy and could get it if he just pulls out the credit card. Yeah, he said he does it sometimes. But he won't do it every time he wants to. And he especially won't do it every time the fans want him to.

27. I think you're right.

We need our hyphenate. And when I say hyphenate, I don't mean that he's a WR - gadget guy - returner. I mean he re-signed. With a hyphen. Unless he decides to leave a job at some point, which would be resigning. I know, I know, who cares, right? But it's a whole different word.

That's the one Simms says will surprise people. Says he was shocked nobody is talking about him. Has him above Waddle. Has Toney at #5. He's done pretty well on WRs. Liked Jeudy last year but had him outside his top five. Loved Claypool last year.

Wow, Elerson Smith is variously reported as 252 - 265? He is a skinny son of a gun. Looks like a linebacker, or even a Duke Williams type WR. Played 3-4 DE and racked up sacks. I wonder how he projects. Agreed. Yeah, it's OK to admit mistakes. Thing is, the evidence simply isn't there that Singletary is a mistake. At all. Just the opposite, in fact, as Beane has said. They're not blaming him. Which makes sense when you look at his 2019 when they were blocking for him. It's OK to admit mistakes. But wrongly identifying a good player as a mistake ... well, it's a mistake. Luckily, Beane doesn't seem as if that's what he's doing. Still, they would be well advised to bring in another guy in the later rounds since Yeldon is gone.

I saw a lack of holes a lot more than mental mistakes, personally. IMO three 3rd rounders in three straight years is poor team building and asset allocation. Singletary has proven in 2019 when they block for him he can make teams pay. No, he'll never be a home run hitter but he can make guys miss at a high rate and run through arm tackles. IMO he needs to improve (everyone does) but he was not the major part of the problem last year. And please don't remind me of Ronnie Harmon. Gives me the heebee jeebies, thinking about that drop against Cleveland. IMO the reason Harmon was gone wasn't so much the drop as it was blaming it on Kelly.

To me, this is hilarious. Star was these boards favorite whipping boy through all of 2019. Then due to a pre-existing medical condition has him opt out and we see the D take a major step back. And for a few weeks people say, "Oh, gee, we really missed this guy." But that's all forgotten and now it's "can't believe he opted out." I mean, the way folks have to desperately twist and flail to find ways to criticize the guy. It cracks me up. You've got a great example here too. First, you criticize him for taking a year off. Then you do a 180 and criticize him for having a lot of miles. Hunh? He just took a year off. And then after knocking him for too many miles, it's "hasn't played a live snap for a year." Jeez, which is it? Played too much? Played too little? You can't reasonably have it both ways, though many here seem to try exactly these arguments, and, wackily, together. The girlfriends simile doesn't work. You saw your girlfriends again. You have NOT seen Star, you're just remembering him, and unlike what you apparently did with your exes, underestimating. We missed him last year, a lot, especially Oliver and Edmunds. Oh, and in answer to your question, my answer is likely the same as the Bills think. He's been above average every year he's played. At what they hired him to do. No, he's not athletic, and no he's not going to penetrate just about ever. But is he well above average as a space eater, which is what they knew he was when they signed him? The Bills would tell you yes, and the evidence shows they believe it.

The fact that it's clear to you doesn't mean it's actually clear. That's one guess. And with how little money they'd save cutting him even next year, a guess that could very easily be wrong.

But it's not OK to admit mistakes before anyone can be sure they are mistakes. These two have not been shown yet to be mistakes. Moss in particular is the physical back you want, but in space, Singletary can hurt teams. He didn't get much space last year. IMO the 3rd is a bit too early for Beane to want to draft another back. Wouldn't be surprised if they do it a bit later, though.

Thanks for the topic. Good stuff. Gives me some video to watch. I appreciate it.

No reason to think so. They were an elite D in 2019, with Star and substantially the same best players. The OP is dead right on this ... without him the DL is athletic but small and could be pushed around. With him in there getting the doubles, they don't look so small anymore and everyone else gets a lot more single blocks. There was a ripple effect that we saw in 2019 that was not there last year. Star's not a great player, but he's a guy who does his one thing very well.

Oliver has consistently improved. He has been good, it was his second year, and he and Edmunds were the two players most hurt by Star's absence. They both look like key building blocks and long-term fixtures. Both need to improve, but so does everyone.

Yes. The last half of the year they were really good.

This is the problem with the Beane regime. It makes it really hard on trolls and the chronically depressed. These poor folks have to start demanding that we forget that till now this regime got us 13 wins and a spot in the AFC championship. They have to instead demand that a competent regime in a year with a sudden cap constriction make the team better, and try to induce fury if the FO doesn't do all this before the draft, by early April. It's pretty sad on the face of it, these folks seem impelled to somehow try to produce anger at this FO. Hard sledding for the lunatic fringe.

Has he maybe lost something from his outside effectiveness? Could be. But he's still very effective from outside. It's really easy to see, as he had a bunch of nice catches starting from outside. This guy is a swiss army knife. He can do anything. That's likely why they got him. They can shake things up and be really unpredictable with him. He can go outside, from movement, from the slot, anything, and he's good at all of them.

Yeah, and in more other words, the offense contributed to about 40% of the total snaps we played. Clearly we waste cap space on these guys as they don't even play a majority of the snaps. Sorry, man, your argument is dumb. When STs guys play about 20% of the snaps, scoring most of the points and having a major impact on special teams, and you're paying less than 5% of the cap money, that's a bargain, not a waste.

At least right now the Chiefs only have 23 guys under contract for 2022, and they're listed at $32M under. And some of those 23 guys in 2022 are named Lucas Niang, Rashad Fenton, Darwin Thompson, Michael Danna, Bopete Keyes, Yasir Durant, Khalen Sanders and Tershawn Wharton. They are going to have to bring in a ton more guys

I'm going to back out of this till all the details are public. It doesn't yet seem possible to know what we don't know about the precise financial state of the Bills.

Just saw this from The Buffalo News' Jay Skurski: "Jay: Let’s set the record straight here. Sanders is not a slot receiver. Just once in the past five seasons has he lined up for more than 35% of his snaps in a season in the slot. That came in 2018 with Denver – and is the outlier in his career." https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-mailbag-why-the-start-of-free-agency-has-been-a-success-even-without-blockbuster/article_f1a54c6c-8989-11eb-8395-4b9c741760eb.html

No thanks.

I wouldn't mind it, but I doubt Beane would consider it. They need young cheap talent. That's not bold, it's reckless. It's not good practice. The Watkins trade is one of many showing why that is not a good idea. The Massey and Thaler study has shown conclusively why it's not a good idea. Statistically, teams do better trading down than trading up. The only time you want to give up such a large haul is trading up for a potential franchise QB. The Harvard Sport Collective studied the same thing and found the same thing. It's been studied a ton, actually and they all find the same thing. Which is you shouldn't do this.

Yeah, it really was. Seems like he is a hell of a guy and headed towards being a terrific player. Whenever I see someone mention Troup as a bust, I share this story. More people should know.

It's always worth remembering that Torell Troup was developing into a formidable player. He looked like he was going to be a real success. Then he played large parts of a season with a fractured back, pushing through the pain with pills. That willingness to sacrifice himself for the team cost him his career and his health. Here's the address of the Tyler Dunne story, and some excerpts: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/from-the-archives-torell-troup-the-one-the-bills-drafted-a-pick-before-gronk/article_556036f6-1ec6-5312-9986-27b3545822ef.html Excerpts: "Troup, to the outside world, is a certified bust. Yet another name thou shalt not speak of in the annals of Bills futility. But what happened? If those fans on Twitter only knew. “'I could understand [the twitter hate he got for years] if I was a bust,' Troup said. 'I know Buffalo has drafted a lot of guys who haven’t lived up to their expectations. But for me to be on my way, and living up to what the coaches wanted me to be and them telling me that – and then to get hurt and sidelined – it hurts. It hurts my pride more than anything that I wasn’t able to do more. I loved being up there, I loved that team and I loved the fans.' “'I would’ve done anything to play for the fans and that’s probably one of the reasons I am where I am now.' "When Gronkowski was scoring more touchdowns than any tight end ever in 2011, Troup was, as he said, 'all doped up' on Toradol to survive Sundays. During the week, he chugged pain pills like Tic Tacs. Troup played that season with a fractured back – his disc slipping, jamming into nerves – enduring the most unthinkable pain he doesn’t wish upon his worst enemies. "Teammates told him to quit. Coaches, he claims, told him to play. So he played to the literal point of tears and the subsequent L4/L5 spinal fusion ended his career. He’s more casualty of a ruthless business than bust. More commodity chewed up and spit out by the NFL than outright failure. Each creak of a joint in the a.m. is his aching reminder of his season from hell. “'They saw the pain that I was in, man,' Troup said. 'Being who I am, all I wanted to do was do what I was told. I never thought about talking back or saying I don’t want to play. No matter how much pain I was in, if they wanted me to play, I played. It went to where I couldn’t play no more.' "Over the phone, there’s a cough. A deep breath. 'Sorry,' Troup said, 'I’m getting a little choked up.' ... and another excerpt ... "His rookie year was OK. A start. This second season would be dynamite. "Through the 2011 lockout, Troup trained with a vengeance. He reported to training camp at a chiseled 319 pounds, eager to break out. Practices began at St. John Fisher and the kid who had 23 tackles and no sacks the year prior was dominant for stretches. “'Honestly, I was killing the offensive line,' Troup said. 'Eric Wood, I’m good friends with him, but they couldn’t handle me.' "One day in the lunchroom, head coach Chan Gailey and General Manager Buddy Nix couldn’t contain their excitement. The two asked Troup to sit down with them and told this bull in a china shop they had no clue what he did over the offseason, but, wow, were they ecstatic to see this all transfer to game day. "Their words added more fuel to Troup’s fire. His tear continued. Teammates today still remember Troup’s raw strength. “'Low center of gravity,' guard Kraig Urbik said. 'Super strong. Legs were very thick. Strong dude – he was tough to move for sure.' "'He was a strong dude,' Wood said. “'Big, powerful guy,' added veteran Kyle Williams. 'He’s probably not your pass rusher, but a guy who could stack things up at the line and make plays at the line of scrimmage and do some good things there.' "Reached by phone, Nix instantly remembers this camp well. “'Those big guys are hard to find! Especially him,' Nix said. 'He had some movement ability and was really a strong anchor guy.' "As Nix recalls, the Bills were shifting to a 3-4 scheme when they took Troup and needed a nose to take on double teams. "He doesn’t remember teams being scared off by Gronkowski’s injury history, but the Arizona tight end was the one with the shoddy Carfax report. Back surgery sidelined him his entire final season at Arizona. Troup? He missed a few games due to a knee scope as a freshman but was healthy in totaling 52 tackles (12.5 for loss) as a junior and 35 tackles (five for loss) as a senior. "Then, without warning, his world started to crumble down. "In a one-on-one pass rushing drill against Wood, Troup used a head bob to freeze the center. He smacked Wood with his right arm and Troup’s hand snapped, breaking the bone underneath his right knuckle. Initially, Troup thought he jammed the finger. By the time he reached the trainers he said his hand looked like a baseball glove. "Troup missed one week of practice, wrapped the paw in a club and was prepared to punctuate his knockout summer in the preseason finale against Detroit. To this day, he cannot pinpoint the play, the moment, but during this game he fractured his lower back. “'I played all through the game doped up,' he said, 'so I couldn’t feel it.' "On Wednesday, it felt like he pulled both hamstrings. He received an epidural. Tests later revealed the fracture. A disc in his back was slipping and pushing against nerves, causing burning and numbness down his legs. "Troup sat out the first three weeks of the season and returned. “'It’s easy to look back now and say, "I should have sat my ass down,” ' Troup said. 'But I was young. I was stupid. And it cost me my career.' ” Troup, if he'd only sat down, taken the season off and got surgery, he might easily have been remembered as a terrific Buffalo Bill. There's much more to the story, I copied maybe a third of it. It's heart-breaking. Troup should not be thought of as a bust. Instead, he's a tragedy, a guy who gave up his health for this team.

Agreed. From what I've seen - and I'm not a serious draft guy - there's not likely to be a lot of value at the positions we need at #30, with what seems like a very reasonable group of OLs and maybe a CB or two. Beane's method seems to be BPA at a position of need. But you're right that he doesn't narrow down position of need to one. He's clearly looking at a minimum of three or four possibilities based on how the talent is likely to lie when our pick falls. If he would rather have a pass rusher, a TE or another WR early, it looks to me like he might possible trade back. The News today predicted Kwity Pay at #30. I think if he's there, they don't trade back, but in most mocks he's long gone.