GaryPinC

No, you failed to understand what I was saying. I was saying from this description it sounds like Bundgaard's study focused on if masks self-protect. That is one facet of mask wearing, a more important one is that it protects others. If he finds a face shield is better self-protection it doesn't invalidate the utility of masks to protect others. If his study finds masks don't significantly self-protect, we should be careful not to condemn masks unless he also shows it doesn't protect others. But I absolutely mentioned he feels like people would eschew other self protection and over-rely on masks. That gibberish means us scientists go beyond variables and how data is collected. It deals more with scope and shortcomings of the entire study. I have tried to replicate data following exact methods in peer reviewed journals and come up short. Sometimes it's a problem on my end and sometimes it's a problem with their study. I was asking because there are many who looked at the data and did just that. Glad it wasn't you, but it happens all the time. You have a good point and so do they. Certainly once your baseline went down it's fairly routine epidemiological methods Shoshin was talking about. My apologies for misunderstanding your end of it. Haha. Nutty left wing extremists, nutty right wing extremists and me somewhere in the middle. I voted Trump too. Left wing snowflakes need their safe spaces, right wing snowflakes need their conspiracy spaces. Listen to 'em both howl and moan! No conclusive data evidence? So sometimes you're all about the hard data when it suits you and sometimes you're not? Certainly acquired immunity will help slow the spread. The problem is we haven't figured out the nature of the acquired immunity, what percent of post-infected have it and for how long? I don't know if you're familiar with R0. If not, here's a link that does a decent job without getting lost in the weeds. https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/rounds/how-scientists-quantify-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-covid-19 There are a lot of factors to get our R0 under 1 and keep it there. Certainly the draconian Asians are the most effective. In the absence of that, masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc. take on extra importance with a novel virus like Covid. I don't argue with you that mask wearing is overstated at times. But to avoid lockdowns we need to take their use and the other measures seriously. Not wait until a family member or friend has their lungs damaged or even dies. It rubs me the wrong way that people overblow having to wear masks so much when it's so simple and helpful an act. Sorry if you got caught in the blow-by.

Yep, I definitely agree with you about the evidence of no resurgence so far. To answer the likelihood of the virus returning in March form, two things are important, was what NYC went through because lax preparation allowed undetected superspreading or was it an isoform of the virus that drove the R0 to become very high? Not sure we have enough captured data to determine that. You can argue either way on it, you can look at Michigan's journey (similar to NYC) vs Ohio or look at California and the south.

Thanks for the explanation, I'll have to dig deeper into that one. But again, acquired immunity is still a big unknown here and we're conducting so many infection tests not sure when we'll get good numbers on immunity. The virus is not gone from NYC. Rest assured of that. It could be eradicated but it requires an Asian persistence which we don't put up with sacrificing that many of our rights in this country. Also, one other big factor is your infection rate outdoors vs indoors. Certainly experts don't think it's that different but I respectfully disagree with them.

LOL, forgive my midwestern ignorance but what is the Hasids of Williamsburg? The rest? And these are only educated guesses. Incidence in NY is very low right now. If, loose behavior is as rampant as you describe, then the virus will come back up. As I said, we still don't know enough about long term immunity from this virus so it's certainly very possible that is tamping it down right now. Will it be long lasting? Maybe NYC will teach us then. BTW, I was up at Chautauqua 2 weeks ago. NY still has a lot of restrictions that help. This is a novel virus. It is highly infectious. Yes, the numbers tell us only a small percent of the population will have problems with it. But I don't want to have those kinds of problems nor to I want to be careless and inflict them on someone else. I go out to eat at bar/restaurants that are operating responsibly and am out doing my part to support responsible businesses.

You're certainly right about most everything except the laughable part. You keep at the efforts to control it until you get control then really need to use contact tracing to keep it under control. But even then people need to take the prevention steps. The baseline can come down, isolation and these other measures help that.

Look, I get your point, but there's going to be outbreaks in New York also, nearly everywhere unless we get, as Magox says, draconian about it. Certainly previous exposure (innate immunity) will play an as-yet-unquantified role but it's up to everyone to do their best to follow guidelines to limit the outbreak. You're comparing Sydney to Melbourne today? It could completely flip in a week, who knows?

Really? And why is that? If you actually dig into their rationale, it usually revolves around the fact that experts prefer people concentrate on hand-washing, social distancing, and self-isolation (like Bundgaard) or that many looked at the tiny size of the viral particle but failed to consider it would be spread on water droplets. Already, Bundgaard advocating for face shields means his study may have focused on if masks self-protect. I don't know, but when it comes out this needs to be evaluated so we can appreciate the full picture on the role of masks. There is ample proof masks help protect others when you are infected and with an asymptomatically contagious virus, that becomes critical. It is doubtful simple masks offer much self-protection and some experts worry people will falsely rely on it and won't be diligent in self protection. Your mask wearing helps protect others. "the virus is going to do what a virus does" Sure, except that we are trying to dilute what the virus is doing. Go look at data for S. Korea, China, Japan to see how it did over there. You're on here crowing about how you follow the data. In science, in an emerging area, you can't just follow the data blindly. Data is collected from studies, and studies have limitations and biases. Many different studies and forms of data from different investigators must be collected before drawing conclusions and even then we must be careful to reconsider if needed. Things look different now than they did at the beginning of March and will look different next year. You follow the data? Were you one of those proclaiming this thing wasn't as bad as the flu back in early March, ignoring the problem of comparing an emerging virus to an endemic one? Were you one of those in late June/early July proclaiming the outbreaks in Florida, Texas, Arizona were simply due to increased testing because deaths hadn't risen yet? Even though recent history shows deaths trails incidence of new cases by 1-2 weeks. Because there were plenty of those people even if you were not among them. You say you predicted this virus would have outbreaks again? Big deal, the controlling factor is how bad will it be, and our efforts to control the spread can have some say over that. I also predicted the re-emergence in Ohio. Why? Our hospitalizations never bottomed out enough before reopening, too many people were convinced it would go away with the warm weather and the nutty right wing extremists and younger crowd were going to try and return life to normal and ignore protective measures. Not difficult to predict. And guess what? There is no evidence "herd immunity" will extinguish the virus (recent international outbreaks point otherwise) or bring it under enough control until we get a vaccine. Anyone who truly cares about getting the economy going and returning a semblance of normal should realize masks, distancing, etc are critical to that until either endemic outbreaks remain small enough or a vaccine is proven and in the population. People want to feel safe when they go out to spend money, unfortunately we have to rely on each other for that and in the USA we seem to be terrible at making small everyday changes for the good of others.

My simple point with the graph is for those who scream and denigrate claiming the increase in cases is simply due to increased testing. That's without even citing New York, the facts of which completely oppose this opinion. Your point about the 30% is taken, however, given the delays in test results you would have to provide some evidence that the 30% did indeed test negative for Covid. It's a tricky virus and sometimes medical professionals have to use their best judgement. WRT temporary lockdowns, they delay and dilute the inevitable. Was it necessary? At the time yes, because so much was unknown. Now? No, though it's debateable because there's too many petty people who think wearing a mask is akin to ripping up the constitution instead of seeing a simple, temporary measure to help limit the spread of a public health threat.

Here's the hospitilization data from Ohio ( a few days old and has continued to increase through today) And my docs who work the ER here at Metrohealth in Cleveland tell me they've reopened the extra Covid and ICU space, definitely many more Covid patients they're seeing since June and younger (40s-60s) and definitely very sick. WRT new cases and testing, many more tests administered, positivity rate remains mostly the same (bottomed out in June, now very slowly rising). So you're correct that a large portion, though not all, of Ohio's situation is due to increased testing. However, hospitilizations have always told the true story so I attempted to make this graph nice and big for someone as willfully ignorant of the full story such as yourself. How ironic that you perceive an epidemic of morons.

I did, and my take from it was that provided there was no reason to doubt the legitimacy of the 911 call, the officer is allowed to simply pull over the car for a basic investigation. If I'm hearing your argument correctly, your concerns seem to be that the officer would issue a moving violation citation based solely off the 911 call? (speeding, reckless op) That doesn't appear to be the case, though Navarette vs Cali did not deal specifically with this issue. But getting back to EO, the police were allowed to simply pull him over to investigate the possibility of DUI/DWI based on the 911 call. Perhaps they did not observe or bother to observe him driving unsafely, or perhaps they chose not to cite him for unsafe driving behavior they did observe. I have called in a driver one time because they were driving so erratically it appeared they had to be DUI. I imagine when any driver 911 calls in another driver a high majority of the time DUI is involved, and perhaps police stop the car regardless of their observations. If they don't and the car is later involved in a DUI accident, that would seem unethical.

As are you. He provided a sound reference pages ago on a California case that was upheld by the US Supreme Court. Basically, as long as the 911 call seems legit and police ID the vehicle, they are allowed to stop it immediately and conduct a brief investigation. Doesn't say they can simply write a ticket based on the call, but they can pull it over at their discretion. I imagine if they want to get a reckless op or speeding, I'm betting they're going to wait until they witness it first. But simply put, he's right you're wrong. Sorry.

Well, it wasn't obvious to me, so thanks for enlightening. It's a question of what's reasonable. If 911 call says swerving , etc. I could understand if the officer was required to follow and witness the behavior to establish probable cause. My understanding is that you can't just get a search warrant purely on an anonymous tip. You have to investigate specific assertions and justify the validity of the tip before getting a warrant, right? So I could see those being parallel arguments for what's reasonable but certainly allowing the officer to stop the car in question and do a brief investigation is reasonable when you consider the consequences of impaired driving and road rage.

You're right, disagreers are clearly wrong. Police are allowed to make a brief investigative stop based on a reasonable 911 call.

Well, if you feel there is a person driving so erratically, they could cause a serious accident or injury why would you NOT call it in?

LOL, I too know it's not just whites. And let's not get started about how wrong white males are. But sometimes it's best to shut up and lead by example.

Um, considering many states have a legal breathalyzer limit of 0.08, "zero point zero" doesn't really mean anything in this instance.

I'm on the same page as Shaw66, but for me old-school racism, as I think you're referring to, is a big minority. New-school racism, which for me includes also prejudice and discrimination is very much alive and well. While I used to think those weren't as big a deal, it's clear from reading honest feedback post George Floyd that those small indignities add up to a big problem for most African Americans and other minorities. So, as a white majority-type person, I can either stick to my ideas or listen to the people most affected and do better. It's time to stop passing it off.

No it doesn't. Police officers do things like verbal and written warnings. I myself was in my early 20's and totally busted for coasting through a stop sign at 3 AM and the cop let me off. It's always a possibility that they were so focused on this formidable looking man with a possible DWI, empty beer can, and resulting illegal weapons charge they never bothered to cite him for speeding and reckless driving charges. But I don't know what the truth is and since we weren't there at the scene, respectfully, neither do you.

According to some reports someone phoned in that EO was switching lanes erratically. A deputy spotted the vehicle and was trailing doing 80 in a 45 and observed him passing in a no passing zone. https://www.khou.com/article/news/crime/court-records-buffalo-bills-ed-oliver-admitted-to-drinking-taking-adderall-prior-to-houston-dwi-arrest/285-df7cfad6-f1d3-422b-bab3-9e99dbe845c5 The beer Ed drank was at 1 PM, a beer can was in the door, not between his legs. Perhaps after he drank the beer at 1 PM he left the empty can in the door? One of these articles says he blew a 0.0 in the field, also that the DWI unit was called to the scene. If that's all true then they took him in for bloodwork over potential adderall. I can see them cutting him a break on the empty can with a spotless breathalyzer and blood test, can't understand why not a speeding ticket? Maybe the officer never actually matched his speed before pulling him over. Good for EO!

If you actually read the entire article you are completely guilty of that which you rail against. Here's the very next line from Dr. Martinez which you omitted: “This is a morbid topic and it’s not one we enjoy talking about, but it really does underscore the severity of COVID-19 in our community,” Martinez told the outlet. "Neighboring Hidalgo County also said it will share a FEMA trailer with Cameron County, KRGV reported. The truck, which can hold an estimated 50 bodies, arrived several weeks ago, according to Hidalgo County officials, but has been sitting unused. Hidalgo County officials said Cameron County’s morgue is filling more quickly. “I’m going to let them take this one, because they are in dire need,” Hidalgo County emergency management coordinator Ricardo Saldaña, told KRGV. Cameron County has 79 coronavirus-related deaths, according to Johns Hopkins data. Hidalgo County has 183." This entire article discusses different counties in Texas with large surges in Covid deaths and problems with morgue capacity and any health officials quoted chalk up the truck need due to the Covid death surge. Certainly postponement of funerals is a factor but is very far from the "gist" of the article.

Happens everywhere. I was working for a small biotech company and it was happening. In that case, it took one exec and a group of 20 somethings. 20 somethings always looking to go out, exec willing to put it on the company card and away we go. This guy was fairly charismatic and would jokingly make mildly flirtatious comments and the ones who seemed to enjoy that attention he would build into a full court press. It comes in many forms of ugliness. You get more than one exec/manager working together and ugh.

"You are a C___" I mean, if you really want to ruin it, let's just go for the jugular and leave nothing to chance.

TT's longballs lost some of their accuracy IMO, not because receivers were dropping them. Whether he was 0-2 or 2-0 he still stunk and was lousy against the Jets also. Mayfield was an epiphany on offense the moment he came in, sealing TT's fate in CLE.

Looking at both QBs most recent season with Buffalo (TT 2017 JA 2019) at PFR, it appears Allen bests Taylor in passing TDs 20-14. Allen also bests Taylor in rushing TDs 9-4. I would argue if the Bills scored more points under Taylor, it wasn't because of Taylor. Also, I felt like TT's long ball tanked in 2017 compared to 2015. Last but not least, defenses had really begun to figure TT out. Next year in Cleveland, I watched all 3 TT games and though not the best conditions, TT was largely ineffective and shut down against the defenses. And same old checkdowns and late game scoring tanks. My good buddy (huge Browns fan) couldn't understand why we let TT go until he witnessed it himself and the same frustration set in. His concussion against the Jets paved the way for Mayfield but he wouldn't have lasted as starter anyways. Though you never know with coach Huge Jackass. He was tough to figure at times.

I think the negativity is because of the disappointment that Tyrod has enough raw physical tools to be a great QB but failed to do so when we needed it the most at critical points in games. With all the great things about him, it was obvious the team had no future with him so you magnify the negatives to compensate.