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Im going to Cleveland…want me to pick you up?

Some of you guys are on fire with these posts regarding statistical analysis of the Bills and the league as a whole. Awesome job @Sammy Watkins' Rib!

I agree. It absolutely penalizes the team with a better regular season record. The seeding by record doesn't and never will. It's the fairest of systems. However, I'm getting a clear message here that fans really value divisional games and rivalries within that exist. A new playoff seeding system as presented would or could negatively effect divisional importance. Personally, I'm always going to side on the fairest system that rewards results appropriately. It's simple math...

That’s an awesome post @Mikie2times! Where did you pull that data/table from if you don’t mind me asking? Seeing hidden variables in teams that can be extrapolated over the course of a season are always a fascinating look/read.

Surprised how many people are picking Denver. It's a matchup league and I think we match up well with them. They're basically the same team we blew out in the wildcard round last year. Ultimately I just don't think a QB like Bo Nix can out duel a QB like Allen in sudden death. This is my ranking from most worried to least worried, with lines denoting significant gaps between teams: Baltimore --- Houston Jacksonville New England Denver --- --- --- LA Pittsburgh

Don’t think it’s as much of their defense but rather their offense. Josh can make things happen and strain that defense enough to put us in a position to win the game. The Broncos skill players, specifically Sutton/Harvey/Franklin/Engram (in that order) are more of a daunting task to face than their defense. That’s just me though.

For sure and I can’t disagree with much of that assessment. I do think however that them letting this game slip away and potentially losing to the Ravens could cause some scrambling that may lead to errors if the Jets (unlikely) or Dolphins can keep it a decent contest.

Ravens are still the team that scares me the most (now that KC is out). I know their season has been rocky to say the least but they are still very talented on both sides of the ball, and if Lamar continues to ramp up and get healthy they could be dangerous in the playoffs right when everyone has given up on them. For me they're the only AFC team I look at as a true 50/50 matchup. Any other team in the conference I feel we would be clear favorites. Pittsburgh winning tonight was big. It pains me to do this but I'll be rooting for New England next week. Give me a playoff picture with no Lamar, Burrow, or Mahomes and dare any of these other QBs to match points with Superman.

Nicely done, Laura.

I know this is a lot of assuming but the Bills most likely spot is the 5 seed. If we can get Pittsburgh in round 1 I think anyone would say that’s the best road game we can in the first round. An opponent we’ve had a lot of success with, minimal travel , and a team we match up with. There is going to be an upset in the WC round between New England/Houston or Jacksonville/Chargers. Those teams are all so closely matched you would think one comes through. That means Buffalo would avoid Denver in round 2 as LA/Houston would go to Denver and Buffalo would head to NE/Jacksonville. I mean that’s a hell of a good path and if somehow Houston was there at the end we would get them at home vs having to go back to that nightmare in Houston

And they can still count for something by being guaranteed a playoff game. Just not a home game. Last year, the Vikings went 14-3 and were second in their Division to the Lions going 15-2. They had to travel to play the 10-7 Rams. They had a better record by 4 games but because they were in a Division with a team that won 15 games, they had to travel. The current system rewards lesser teams for winning weaker Divisions. It's simple. Win your Division, get in the playoffs (so it still means something) but the home game goes to the team with the better record

Interesting stuff. I was curious what our time of possession has been per half and whether that is potentially helping keep the defense off the field. We are #1 in the league in the 2nd half by a wide margin, middle of the pack on the 1st half. In fact, we have the 2nd highest TOP in the 2nd half over the last 20 years, behind only the 2019 Baltimore Ravens. Ours has been more skewed to the 3rd quarter whereas the Ravens were more skewed to the 4th quarter, although we both lead/led the league in TOP in both quarters. We also lead the league in TOP for the full game, 2nd to the 2019 Ravens in the past 15 years. What I think this confirms is that we’re running a very heavy and successful ball control offense, wearing teams down in the trenches, keeping the defense off the field, and then when the defense is on the field in the 2nd half, making the proper adjustments. This is helping to overcome the significant injuries we’ve faced on the defensive side of the ball, along with the lack of talent at the WR position. As the weather stays bad and *fingers crossed* the defense can get healthier, I think this team is as well positioned as ever to get back to the Super Bowl. Being a Wild Card team and needing to go on the road seems like our biggest obstacle, if we can’t pull out the division.

You'd have a hard time convincing anyone that the AFC North and NFC South are playing in more difficult divisions when the truth is that both divisions are simply butt cheeks. In reality, it's rewarding mediocrity.

I live in Colorado and have watched most of the Broncos games this year and probably all of the more competive ones. For most of the season I've felt that one thing the Broncos are really good at is generating consistent pressure with a four man pass rush. IIRC, Bill Wash was quoted as saying that the key to winning in the NFL is 4th quarter pass rush and the Broncos have had that all season. The offense on the other hand has been a do the bare minimum with a game manager quarterback operation. However, as Nick Wright fairly observed on First Things First today, Bo Nix's three best games as a pro have been his last three games. He was pretty darn good in the second of yesterday's game. Consequently the prospect of the Bills having to go to Denver for a playoff games worries me considerably more than it did a month ago; however, I'd rather that than a road game in Houston against that savage defense, especially with an improving CJ Stroud at QB.

Doing seeding by record makes more sense. There is no logical reason why a 14-3 team with a 15-2 Division winner should have to travel to play a 9-8 Division winner. So, one team with a record 5 games better gets punished simply because of being in a better Division and the 9-8 Division winner gets rewarded for being in a garbage Division? In what world is that fair or make sense? It doesn't matter who it benefits. But in the Bills case, let's say a hypothetical. The Steelers or Ravens win the North. The Bills win out, go 13-4 but finish second and are the 5th seed. They would have to travel to play the Ravens or Steelers. Both teams they would have a better record than and both of which they have head to head tie breakers over. That makes no sense at all

People only like this idea because we would benefit from it. Personally, it adds some drama to the season. And that’s just what the NFL wants.

Houston is getting hot at the right time. They look dangerous right now.

I've heard talk on a Browns YouTube channel that Deshaun Watson should play on Sunday. As a Bills fan, I'd much rather they play Sanders. Watson would probably play terribly but it would be a very Bills thing for him to have an astonishing return to form at the worst possible time for the Bills. Anyone else share this concern?

So Brady should be fired then, right?

I rank the risk of them higher than anybody outside of Houston. They're the most complete AFC team.

I agree and have been saying this for years but I get hated on for it. It just makes more sense. A Division winner would be guaranteed a spot but not a home game. The people that say "just win your Division and you won't have that problem" don't understand that there is always one bad Division in each conference. What it takes to win one Division, may be much harder in another Division. If one team goes 13-4 but are behind a 14-3 team in their Division, why should they be visiting a 9-8 Division winner in the playoffs? So, the 9-8 team gets rewarded a home game because their Division was garbage? What's the point of putting everything you have into 13 wins just to basically have it not matter when it comes to seeding? This is blatant common sense but no matter how much sense you make, very few people will agree with you

I posted recently about the PPG disparity and was hoping to drill down a bit more and it's even crazier than I thought. Below is since week 8, randomly selected as the halfway point. First column is EPA defense for the whole game. Bills rank 17th. Second column is 1st half defensive EPA. Bills rank 26th. Third column is 2nd half defensive EPA. Bills rank 1st. Last column is the largest variance between first and second half defense. The higher the number, the worse the variance is in the 2nd half compared to the first half. The lower the number, the better. Buffalo is double the next closest one in Arizona, with Arizona only being that low because they're usually are out of the game by then. Hard to understand information like this. On one hand we show the ability to be among the leagues best in the 2nd half and on another we can't get off the field in the 1st.

That’s what I saw too. I do remember seeing him in the game after that, though. He was actually lined up in the backfield on one play, and I remember thinking, “Oh, I guess the thing that looked like an injury wasn’t that bad.” But maybe he was just gutting it out until after the game.

The Dolphins historically play the Patriots tough, even when Brady was there. Never say never.

Yeah, don't change it. I get the discrepancy, but I like the way it is based on what was stated. Teams gear up to take on their division.