There is a falsehood running rampant on this board

[John from Riverside]

Simon

 

I have absolutely no evidence to back it up......but it just seems to me that Fitz is LOOKING to go downfield more then Trent does.....as in he will throw it and let a receiver make a play on it.

 

Now......then there is the problem with his horrible accuracy which is another problem in itself.

 

Meanwhile.....it just looks to me like Trent glances down field then looks short....he doesnt let the plays develop.

 

I know there are a multitude of reasons why this is happening....inconsistant OL play.....playcalling etc.

 

I truly think that while Fitz might help us win 1 or 2 games more then what we would have.....we still finish with a losing record.

 

The QB we need is not on this roster.

[Cash]

Yeah, it's not really about the "deep ball". It's about making plays that count when it matters. Like throwing the ball past the 1st down sticks on third down.

 

Example: It's 3rd and 7 with about 4 1/2 minutes left in the game. 17 - 9 Buffalo. The Bills need this first down to keep the clock moving and get deeper into field goal range. A first down here cements the win as it puts the Bills two scores ahead and runs precious time off the click.

 

Fitz? He needles a pass into Reed for eight yards and a critical first down.

 

Edwards? Of course, it's conjecture on my part. But my guess is that Reed doesn't look "open" when he glances at him, and he checks down to Lynch or Jackson, who is tackled short of the first down. Probably we still get the FG, as we were inside the 20, but the first down enabled us to burn over half the remaining game time down.

 

This is critical stuff on a team that plays to the wire every week, and we need a QB with the courage to get the job done.

 

Precisely. Only Al Davis thinks that you can build a successful NFL offense around the deep ball. Folks, there's a lot of different passes that fall somewhere between Checkdown and Deep Ball. Edwards' problem is that he mostly just sticks to the extremes, and when he does throw a deep ball, it's usually so close to the sideline that the receiver has to go out of bounds as he's catching it, and gets no RAC.

 

Another good example from yesterday's game was on the 3rd-and-12 from our own red zone. Fitzpatrick dropped back, was pressured almost immediately, started scrambling around in the pocket to buy some time, clearly looked to his left where he had a RB for a checkdown, then looked back upfield and hurled a pass as he was hit. It looked dangerous as he threw it, and it did sail on him a little bit, but it ultimately went to an open TO, who made the jumping catch and held on to it. I have no doubt whatsoever that Edwards throws that checkdown that Fitzpatrick passed up. How can I be so sure? Because I've been watching Edwards play all year.

[Tcali]

Simon

 

I have absolutely no evidence to back it up......but it just seems to me that Fitz is LOOKING to go downfield more then Trent does.....as in he will throw it and let a receiver make a play on it.

 

Now......then there is the problem with his horrible accuracy which is another problem in itself.

 

Meanwhile.....it just looks to me like Trent glances down field then looks short....he doesnt let the plays develop.

 

I know there are a multitude of reasons why this is happening....inconsistant OL play.....playcalling etc.

 

I truly think that while Fitz might help us win 1 or 2 games more then what we would have.....we still finish with a losing record.

 

The QB we need is not on this roster.

I think Trent has way more potential.But yes Fitz plays gutsier. Sad that Trent has become Jauronized.-And I agree the QB we need isn't on the roster. -I thought Trent could become a very solid system QB in this league--with savvy and intellect to make up for his barely average gun.But that's probbly over with.

[JohnC]

I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.

I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same.

Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken.

 

Trent Edwards:

Week #1 - 5 deep balls

Week #2 - 6 deep balls

Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy)

Week #4 - 7 deep balls

Week #5 - 6 deep balls

This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Week #6 - 5 deep balls

Week #7 - 6 deep balls

This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game.

 

The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month.

 

Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that.

 

And as always, this is a troll free thread.

 

You don't have to spend too much time analyzing the performances of the qbs on our roster to realize that neither one is a starting franchise caliber qb. The solution to our qb woes is not on our roster.

[Guest dog14787]

You don't have to spend too much time analyzing the performances of the qbs on our roster to realize that neither one is a starting franchise caliber qb. The solution to our qb woes is not on our roster.

 

 

Not with our O-line its not.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Who cares. The thing is Fitz is making more timely plays. These stats aren't showing the context of the pass plays. Fitz has been better when the bullets are flying. Fitz isn't miles ahead, but he has been playing better than Edwards. I feel he would have won the Cleveland game as well (probably by a 9-6 score, but still).

 

You have too much invested emotionally in Edwards, man. Look, he sucks and is being out-played (just barely)by a 2nd rate backup with way less experience! Fitz actually has more upside (I know, it's sad).

 

It's over for Edwards (though the team will likely prolong this charade).

[Astrobot]

I don't know how many dozen times I've read how Fitzpatrick might be the better option right now because he was consistently willing to take shots downfield and get his WR's involved while Trent refuses to pull the trigger on any sort of long ball. It's been said so many times by so many different posters that's it's simply been accepted as a fact with no evidence to back it up. It didn't seem entirely accurate to me so I just went through the playbyplay of every Bills game this year to see whether or not this is true. And guess what, it isn't. The differential is so slight between the two that it is barely worth mentioning. According to their averages, Fitzpatrick throws downfield 0.3 times per game more than Edwards, which is just slightly above 1 more deep ball per month.

I made no attempts at subjectivity so I wouldn't be tempted to skew the numbers either way. These are purely objective numbers with no mitigating factors such as down/distance, field position, scoreboard or anything else taken into consideration. Just a simple average of how many times each guy goes downfield per game. And they are essentially the same.

Following is the number of down field shots they've each taken.

 

Trent Edwards:

Week #1 - 5 deep balls

Week #2 - 6 deep balls

Week #3 - 2 deep balls (the only anomaly for either guy)

Week #4 - 7 deep balls

Week #5 - 6 deep balls

This is 26 shots downfield in 5 games for an average of 5.2 attempts per game.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Week #6 - 5 deep balls

Week #7 - 6 deep balls

This is 11 shots downfield in 2 games for an average of 5.5 attempts per game.

 

The difference being a grand total of 0.3 deep balls per game or again, just slightly more than 1 deep ball per month.

 

Is it too much to ask that we stop spreading the inaccurate assumption that Fitzpatrick goes downfield more than Edwards? Can we possibly base our arguments in reality and maybe even move the debate forward by using truth as a basis for discussion? I'd say we're likely to come to more accurate conclusions if we can manage that.

 

And as always, this is a troll free thread.

Stats to back up an opinion. Me likey.

[Guest dog14787]

Who cares. The thing is Fitz is making more timely plays. These stats aren't showing the context of the pass plays. Fitz has been better when the bullets are flying. Fitz isn't miles ahead, but he has been playing better than Edwards. I feel he would have won the Cleveland game as well (probably by a 9-6 score, but still).

 

You have too much invested emotionally in Edwards, man. Look, he sucks and is being out-played (just barely)by a 2nd rate backup with way less experience! Fitz actually has more upside (I know, it's sad).

 

It's over for Edwards (though the team will likely prolong this charade).

 

 

Any backup QB in the NFL should win a football game averaging 5 turnovers per game.

[GR8PRKN]

Did you see what Fitz did in the first half? I believe we had 1 first down. He was awful.

 

It was PAINFUL to watch!!

[Guest dog14787]

It was PAINFUL to watch!!

 

 

very

[buffaloaggie]

Along with 10 turnovers, right.

Exactly. Delhomme sucked more than Fitzpatrick. Carolina outgained us by over 250 yards. We got 4 turnovers and a key fourth down stop.

[Dan]

There's a few things at work here. First off, it really doesn't matter what anyone thinks because Jauron has already stated that Trent is still too shaken up to play this week. So, in that sense, there is no debate.

 

Second, stats being what they are, all any one has to do is watch the last first 5 games of this season. Trent played progressively worse in each of those games. It got so bad that he couldn't muster more than 1 FG against the Browns - at home. Now, say what you want about stats or throws or arm strength or anything. But your QB has to be a leader and lead his team to more than 3 points against that Browns team. All else is fluff to a certain extent.

 

C. I'm still a little unclear as to what we've classified as a long ball here, but what's even more important that the depth of the pass is when the pass is thrown. When it's 3rd and long, in the 4th quarter, and you're behind; you do not throw check offs to a RB. Period. We've all seen Trent's propensity to do exactly that.

 

3C. In reference to the last statement, many of us have pondered... is Trent being coached to throw the dump offs or are the WRs just not open down field. Well, Fitzy, has shown that WRs sare indeed open and Jauron doesn't insist that the ball be checked down at all costs. For proof that Trent checks down more than Fitzy, I prefer to look at the number of RB recpetions:

 

Week 1 - FJ (5)

Week 2 - FJ (6)

Week 3 - FJ (5)

Week 4 - ML (5); FJ (3)

Week 5 - ML (6); FJ (2)

Week 6 - ML (2); CM (2)

Week 7 - ML (1)

 

Seems, easy to me to conclude that the RBs are catching more balls out of the backfield with Trent in the game than with Fitzy in the game.

 

Fifthly, I forgot what I was talking about after looking up those stats. Suffice it to say, I think there's more to it than just the number of "long passes" the QB makes. I think we have to consider the intermediate routes, the timing of the various passes, and the overall offensive production - 20 points (yesterday) is better than 3 points (against the Browns).

 

So, I agree with you Simon to a point, but I just think its more to it than just the number of deep passes that makes many posters want to see Fitzy starting.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Any backup QB in the NFL should win a football game averaging 5 turnovers per game.

 

I know, but Trent probably wouldn't.

[FightClub]

The things I liked about fitz:

 

1. He seem to move a little better in the pocket, and didn't his head ripped off. Pass protection is not just the O-line's job.

2. He gave his wide recievers a chance. I'm tired of seeing 2 studs on offense not even get a sniff of the ball, becuase that's not what the defense is giving us.

 

I don't think Fitz was anything special, but he's also done just enough to eke out 2 wins. that's the bottom line.

 

Another thing I like about Fitz:

 

3. He has played behind and learned from real NFL QBs. Particularly Palmer from the Bengals, but even Bulger from the Rams (who wasn't as bad as he is now when Fitz was with the Rams).

 

Trent learned everything he knows (NFL-wise) from DJ, Steve Fairchild, Schonert, AVP and (gulp) J.P. Losman

 

I would think even Trent supporters might want to see Fitz play a few weeks so that Trent could watch someone with backbone make decisions on the field.

[eball]

I don't know, he probably throws it to Reed because that's his safety blanket. I think he doesn't make the throw to Evans in the end zone or the initial dropped pass by T.O. because those guys are closely covered.

 

My biggest issue with Trent is he doesn't seem to understand that the windows in the NFL are small and that it's rare for guys to be wide open. Look at Manning's pass to Dallas Clarke yesterday. There's no way Trent even thinks about throwing that thing.

This has been my concern with Trent for a while. The best QBs throw the ball when the receiver doesn't even appear to be open. If you're waiting to see separation, you're too late.

 

Say what you want about Fitz. I'm agnostic at this point. But he does seem to look for Evans and Owens considerably more than Trent did. And he's led the Bills to consecutive road wins.

[Cash]

There's a few things at work here. First off, it really doesn't matter what anyone thinks because Jauron has already stated that Trent is still too shaken up to play this week. So, in that sense, there is no debate.

 

Second, stats being what they are, all any one has to do is watch the last first 5 games of this season. Trent played progressively worse in each of those games. It got so bad that he couldn't muster more than 1 FG against the Browns - at home. Now, say what you want about stats or throws or arm strength or anything. But your QB has to be a leader and lead his team to more than 3 points against that Browns team. All else is fluff to a certain extent.

 

C. I'm still a little unclear as to what we've classified as a long ball here, but what's even more important that the depth of the pass is when the pass is thrown. When it's 3rd and long, in the 4th quarter, and you're behind; you do not throw check offs to a RB. Period. We've all seen Trent's propensity to do exactly that.

 

3C. In reference to the last statement, many of us have pondered... is Trent being coached to throw the dump offs or are the WRs just not open down field. Well, Fitzy, has shown that WRs sare indeed open and Jauron doesn't insist that the ball be checked down at all costs. For proof that Trent checks down more than Fitzy, I prefer to look at the number of RB recpetions:

 

Week 1 - FJ (5)

Week 2 - FJ (6)

Week 3 - FJ (5)

Week 4 - ML (5); FJ (3)

Week 5 - ML (6); FJ (2)

Week 6 - ML (2); CM (2)

Week 7 - ML (1)

 

Seems, easy to me to conclude that the RBs are catching more balls out of the backfield with Trent in the game than with Fitzy in the game.

 

Fifthly, I forgot what I was talking about after looking up those stats. Suffice it to say, I think there's more to it than just the number of "long passes" the QB makes. I think we have to consider the intermediate routes, the timing of the various passes, and the overall offensive production - 20 points (yesterday) is better than 3 points (against the Browns).

 

So, I agree with you Simon to a point, but I just think its more to it than just the number of deep passes that makes many posters want to see Fitzy starting.

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/index.php?...t&p=1615656

 

Cliff's Notes version:

 

Edwards has thrown just under half his passes at WRs, with about a quarter each going towards RBs and TEs.

 

Fitzpatrick has targeted over 80% of his passes at WRs, with about 12% going at RBs and about 6% going at TEs.

 

No guarantee that Fitz's numbers continue at this pace, but so far, the difference is extreme.

[Simon]

Wow, "Simon"! First of all, you must have a LOT of time on your hands, which I don't. However, here's a feeling I have that may or may not be accurate......maybe you could look it up to see if it's true or a falsehood.

 

I'm on the welfare and just sit around smoking meth all day. Thanks for the free money, brah!

 

Example: It's 3rd and 7 with about 4 1/2 minutes left in the game.

Fitz? He needles a pass into Reed for eight yards and a critical first down.

 

I can't tell if this is a joke.

So Fitzgerald checks down to Reed and handcuffs him with a bad ball short of the sticks on third down and Reed bails him out with a strong play to convert. And this is an example of Fitz making clutch plays? If Edwards had thrown that ball you'd be using it as an example of him checking down too much.

 

You don't have to spend too much time analyzing the performances of the qbs on our roster to realize that neither one is a starting franchise caliber qb. The solution to our qb woes is not on our roster.

I don't think anybody can tell squat about the Bills QB's in this abortion of an offense.

 

You have too much invested emotionally in Edwards, man.

 

I feel he(Fitz) would have won the Cleveland game as well (probably by a 9-6 score, but still).

 

I have zero invested emotionally in Trent Edwards and have been saying for some time that I don't like what I'm seeing from him.

And I've seen nothing from Fitzpatrick (or more importantly the rest of the Bills offense) that makes me believe for a second that they could have produced 9 points in a game where they got no help from turnovers and started about 15 drives from inside their own 5.

 

I know, but Trent probably wouldn't. (win a game getting 5 turnovers from an opponent)

 

Actually the only time this year I remember Trent benefiting from an opponents multiple turnovers was 2 interceptions in the Tampa game. The Bills scored 30+ points and won going away.

But yeah, Trent probably wouldn't win a game getting 5 turnovers.

 

There's a few things at work here. First off,

 

Second,

 

C.

 

3C.

 

Fifthly, I forgot what I was talking about after looking up those stats.

 

Not going in depth into your fine work, just wanted to mention I enjoyed your stylish bullets.

 

And he's led the Bills to consecutive road wins.

 

"Led"?

 

Beeeee-have.....

[Simon]

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/index.php?...t&p=1615656

 

Cliff's Notes version:

 

Edwards has thrown just under half his passes at WRs, with about a quarter each going towards RBs and TEs.

 

Fitzpatrick has targeted over 80% of his passes at WRs, with about 12% going at RBs and about 6% going at TEs.

 

No guarantee that Fitz's numbers continue at this pace, but so far, the difference is extreme.

 

That's a great post that you spent some time crafting.

You should give it it's own thread as it deserves to get more notice imo.

[Malazan]

People want an excuse...any excuse to believe that Trent is the problem. It's like people taking drugs who think they can stop anytime. These people are hooked on Fitzpatrick. If they can't see it...there's no way of helping them. None. Nada. They're doomed to overdose.

[zow2]

Who cares. The thing is Fitz is making more timely plays. These stats aren't showing the context of the pass plays. Fitz has been better when the bullets are flying. Fitz isn't miles ahead, but he has been playing better than Edwards. I feel he would have won the Cleveland game as well (probably by a 9-6 score, but still).

 

Agree 100%. I don't need a bunch of stats to see that Fitzpatrick completes 1, 2 or 3 passes MORE per game that change the complexion. Passes that I don't believe Trent would make. Both TD's to Evans are not even attempted by Trent. This Bills club does not need a ton of points on Offense to win. The D is having a remarkable season in terms of bend don't break and turnovers. I was screaming for them to insert Fitz at halftime of the Cleveland game. That loss stings because surely Fitz would have led them to a couple more FG's.