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Turner's price has went down.


2003

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Looks like Coach Fisher and the team are positioning that LenDale is still their man. From today's Nashville paper...

 

Big deal? Running back LenDale White was heavy when he began the team's offseason conditioning program last month, but contrary to reports, he didn't weigh in at 260 pounds.

 

White played last season around 230 pounds, and that's about where the Titans want him this fall.

 

"Players are going to gain some weight from the time the season ends and the start of the offseason program. It is not unusual,'' Fisher said. "The key is to be able to handle the workload and have the weight come off. I don't anticipate it being any problem.

 

"LenDale has been participating and he is working hard. It is what we expect of him.''

 

Fisher refused to divulge White's weight, but one team official said the second-year pro had lost nine pounds in the past two weeks.

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I am well aware of how compensatory picks work, gentlemen. Have any of you followed the Chargers in free agency? Do a search and you will see that AJ Smith RARELY signs free agents. And when he does, it is never the big name/big contract types. Seeing that we have 26 core players signed through 2009, I seriously doubt that AJ is going to buck his current trend of building through the draft and go on a wild spending spree in free agency. I also have little doubt that Turner is going to tear this league up as a feature back.

 

FWIW, I wouldn't want to give a first for him either. But like I said previously, AJ doesn't BS. He has made comments that lead me to believe that anything less than a first THIS YEAR is a deal breaker. Also, like I said previously, I hope we keep him regardless of compensation. But I feel that this whole process has gone too far to come back.

 

Trading for Turner this year will cost (cap wise) a lot less than trying to sign him next year.

As long as multiple teams are interested in Turner, AJ will continue to hold that line. But as you can see no one has jumped on that deal and no one will. When all is said and done I think he'll stay in SD and end up a free agent next year, unless AJ agrees to move him for a 3rd and a day 2 pick next year. The cost of a 1st or even a 2nd is just too high with the quality backs available and the cap cost of the contract MT will demand.

 

Best of luck in '07

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I am well aware of how compensatory picks work, gentlemen. Have any of you followed the Chargers in free agency? Do a search and you will see that AJ Smith RARELY signs free agents. And when he does, it is never the big name/big contract types. Seeing that we have 26 core players signed through 2009, I seriously doubt that AJ is going to buck his current trend of building through the draft and go on a wild spending spree in free agency. I also have little doubt that Turner is going to tear this league up as a feature back.

You can't expect to get a 3rd rounder, or even a pick at all. All it will take is for the Chargers to sign ONE UFA next year and they won't get anything for losing Turner. Of course the Chargers could lose other players, but if what you say about most players being under contract is true, that's about as guaranteed as getting a 3rd rounder for Turner.

FWIW, I wouldn't want to give a first for him either. But like I said previously, AJ doesn't BS. He has made comments that lead me to believe that anything less than a first THIS YEAR is a deal breaker. Also, like I said previously, I hope we keep him regardless of compensation. But I feel that this whole process has gone too far to come back.
Everything is negotiable. And talk is cheap. Given that the odds are heavily stacked against the Chargers winning the SB next year, AJ needs to determine if getting something for Turner, even if it's a lot less than he wants, is better than getting nothing a year later.
Trading for Turner this year will cost (cap wise) a lot less than trying to sign him next year.

In salary, but not draft picks. The Bills are fine WRT the cap so it's not an issue, whereas retainining as many quality draft picks as they can IS.

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Wrong.

 

He had 80 carries for 502 yards. His longest carry was 73 yards. Take that away, which is stupid to begin with, and he has 79 carries for 429 yards, which is still 5.4 YPC which is still terrific.

 

the 1 longest carry in each of the 12 games he played.

 

The point is that his over inflated YPC stat is heavily influenced by the few number of carries.

 

sorry to rain on your parade

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the 1 longest carry in each of the 12 games he played.

 

The point is that his over inflated YPC stat is heavily influenced by the few number of carries.

 

sorry to rain on your parade

 

:w00t: :w00t: :w00t: :w00t:

 

This is starting to get into Holcomb's Arm territory. Yikes!

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My Turner Trade- Bills get Turner and the Chargers 2007 5th - the Bills give up Anthony Thomas 2007 3rd, 2008 2nd and 3rd

 

 

Hell, if we are going this far why don't we throw in Losman, just in case SD wants him to compete with Rivers, and, I don't know, let's say a 3rd rounder in 2009.

 

:w00t:

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the 1 longest carry in each of the 12 games he played.

 

The point is that his over inflated YPC stat is heavily influenced by the few number of carries.

 

sorry to rain on your parade

 

While I do not want the Bills to trade for Turner, I also think its a bit unfair to throw out his longest carry in each game. You'd have to do that for every RB in the league as a fair basis of comparison. One 80 yard run in a season could be dismissed as an abberation and I have no problems tossing it out, but if he's averaging one 20-30 yard run per game, those start looking like a trend and not as easily dismissed.

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While I do not want the Bills to trade for Turner, I also think its a bit unfair to throw out his longest carry in each game. You'd have to do that for every RB in the league as a fair basis of comparison. One 80 yard run in a season could be dismissed as an abberation and I have no problems tossing it out, but if he's averaging one 20-30 yard run per game, those start looking like a trend and not as easily dismissed.

 

 

Imagine if you did that for Barry Sanders.

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the 1 longest carry in each of the 12 games he played.

 

The point is that his over inflated YPC stat is heavily influenced by the few number of carries.

 

sorry to rain on your parade

 

Got the umbrella, right here for that rain. The two backup RBs with similar stats to Turner are Jones-Drew & J Norwood, both of whom are counted on by their teams as heir apparents.

 

If the big knock on Turner is that he benefits from the defenses softened up by Ladanian, why doesn't Mo Morris have more than 4 yds/carry? Yes, you can generalize that Turner's ypc can be inflated by the low carries, but that get knocked out of the water when you see that in every game (7) but 1 in '06 when he had more than 5 touches, his average is greater than 5 yds. Find that kind of combo in a backup.

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My trade...

 

Turner for a 2nd this year and a conditional pick next year (anywhere from 4th to 1st round). Most scenerios would be a 3rd round for the conditional pick, unless he is a stud or a dud. Probably in our system, he will share time... meaning his stats will make the conditional pick a 3rd. Good thing we have two next year.

 

Draft...

 

1st- Willis

(2nd and conditional next year)- Turner

3A- DT/CB/WR (BPA)

3B- DT/CB/WR (BPA)

4- BPA

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the 1 longest carry in each of the 12 games he played.

 

The point is that his over inflated YPC stat is heavily influenced by the few number of carries.

 

sorry to rain on your parade

My bad. I didn't know you were buckin' to be annointed King of the Retards. Carry on.

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You know, if you eliminated JPs touchdown passes and INTs as statistical aberrations, he'd have played a 16-game season with 0 tds and 0 ints.

Actually, a more direct analogy is removing JP's best (TD?) or worst (INT?) pass from each game then comparing his year end passer rating to other quarterbacks. I'd bet he'd be one of the best (or worst) quarterbacks in the league.

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the 1 longest carry in each of the 12 games he played.

 

The point is that his over inflated YPC stat is heavily influenced by the few number of carries.

 

sorry to rain on your parade

 

/waves hand in a mystical fashion as he intones in a serious and hypnotic voice, "You want to rethink your argument."

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Actually, a more direct analogy is removing JP's best (TD?) or worst (INT?) pass from each game then comparing his year end passer rating to other quarterbacks. I'd bet he'd be one of the best (or worst) quarterbacks in the league.

 

I was actually thinking that if we removed one interception per game his QB rating would be through the roof. Still kinda sucky yardage mind you.

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the 1 longest carry in each of the 12 games he played.

 

The point is that his over inflated YPC stat is heavily influenced by the few number of carries.

 

sorry to rain on your parade

what the !@#$ kind of stat is that?

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My Turner Trade- Bills get Turner and the Chargers 2007 5th - the Bills give up Anthony Thomas 2007 3rd, 2008 2nd and 3rd

ARE YOU CRAZY??????????????????????? 3rd on 07 and 2nd and 3rd 08????? gut our 08 draft??--AND lose RB depth??

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Not based on yards per attempt.

 

Good point and that is actually one of the biggest stats. Not a slam on JP mind you, more indicative of our whole offense.

 

Quick aside...One moment that branded Dan Dierdorf as a complete idiot was when he talked about San Frans offense with Steve Young and how he was so shocked that they had such a high yards per attempt what with their short passing game and all. Talk about a man who doesnt understand math.

 

Woot 100th post and it took less than a year. /me flexes

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