Turner's price has went down.

[Band of Merriman]

For anyone thinking that Turner will walk for nothing next year, you do realize that the NFL grants compensatory picks for free agents that don't resign, right? The Chargers will wind up with a 3rd rounder if they decide to keep Turner and let him walk after the upcoming season. Anything less than that as a possible trade is just plain laughable.

 

AJ Smith doesn't BS. He is BY FAR the best GM in the NFL right now. As Bills Fans, you should know this guys eye for talent. Regardless of what anyone wants to think, AJ is in the catbirds seat. There are AT LEAST three teams bidding on Turner as we speak, so anything less than a first is going to fall on deaf ears at Charger Park. Forget swapping picks- it ain't happening. AJ has stated publicly that if the price isn't right, he will let MT walk next year without compensation (aside from the compensatory 3rd round pick). San Diego is built to win a Super Bowl NOW. They have no reason to sell off players on the cheap, as a Michael Turner could mean the difference if the unspeakable happened and LT were injured.

 

The Chargers WILL get a #1 should they decide to trade him. If you don't want that #1 to be a Bills pick, so be it. I will say that the guy is the REAL DEAL, and part of what makes him attractive is the fact that he has proven to be a pro's pro off the field as well as on. The guy is a consummate team player, hard worker, model citizen, ROLE MODEL. The team that winds up with him is going to be very happy.

 

Personally, as a Chargers Fan, I hope we keep him. The guy is the ULTIMATE insurance policy to the best back in the NFL. Either way, I feel MT's immediate future will be decided within the next few days.

 

Good luck to the Bills in '07.

Write it down. Turner will not go for a #1 pick this year. If the Chargers let him walk next year they're not guarenteed any compensatory picks. That's determined by the number of free agents they sign. From the Chargers perspective they may be better off keeping him as insurance as they are positioned to do well next year. Trading our 1st or 2nd for an impressive career back up doesn't make sense. IMO the most i'd offer is a 3rd and a 5th next year or i'd opt for a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round this year.

[Lothar]

For anyone thinking that Turner will walk for nothing next year, you do realize that the NFL grants compensatory picks for free agents that don't resign, right? The Chargers will wind up with a 3rd rounder if they decide to keep Turner and let him walk after the upcoming season. Anything less than that as a possible trade is just plain laughable.

 

AJ Smith doesn't BS. He is BY FAR the best GM in the NFL right now. As Bills Fans, you should know this guys eye for talent. Regardless of what anyone wants to think, AJ is in the catbirds seat. There are AT LEAST three teams bidding on Turner as we speak, so anything less than a first is going to fall on deaf ears at Charger Park. Forget swapping picks- it ain't happening. AJ has stated publicly that if the price isn't right, he will let MT walk next year without compensation (aside from the compensatory 3rd round pick). San Diego is built to win a Super Bowl NOW. They have no reason to sell off players on the cheap, as a Michael Turner could mean the difference if the unspeakable happened and LT were injured.

 

The Chargers WILL get a #1 should they decide to trade him. If you don't want that #1 to be a Bills pick, so be it. I will say that the guy is the REAL DEAL, and part of what makes him attractive is the fact that he has proven to be a pro's pro off the field as well as on. The guy is a consummate team player, hard worker, model citizen, ROLE MODEL. The team that winds up with him is going to be very happy.

 

Personally, as a Chargers Fan, I hope we keep him. The guy is the ULTIMATE insurance policy to the best back in the NFL. Either way, I feel MT's immediate future will be decided within the next few days.

 

Good luck to the Bills in '07.

I see this claim being batted around the Chargers' boards and I really think people don't understand the whole compensation issue. I wish you no malice but it's no guarantee he'll fetch a 3rd rounder - and that pick won't be available till '09. Going by some simple draft chart assumptions, a 3rd rounder in '09 is equivalent to something like a 5th rounder this year. And that's if you get a 3rd rounder - more likely unless he goes to a team with a great OL and has a spectacular season, you'll be lucky to pull off a 4th ... in '09.

 

People here think he's worth no more than McGahee, folks on that board think he's better than Alexander and Edgerrin. We want to give up a 3rd, you guys expect more than a 1st. Realistically, if this trade does happen, it wont be for more than a 2nd rounder this year ... maybe you'll get a 3rd rounder next year if a team gets desperate. Not that I'd advocate his selection at 12 but the difference in projected salaries between Lynch and Turner way more than offset the latter's experience running behind a great line. Anything more than that and I'd rather take my chances with a draftee sometime in the first day.

[Band of Merriman]

I see this claim being batted around the Chargers' boards and I really think people don't understand the whole compensation issue. I wish you no malice but it's no guarantee he'll fetch a 3rd rounder - and that pick won't be available till '09. Going by some simple draft chart assumptions, a 3rd rounder in '09 is equivalent to something like a 5th rounder this year. And that's if you get a 3rd rounder - more likely unless he goes to a team with a great OL and has a spectacular season, you'll be lucky to pull off a 4th ... in '09.

 

People here think he's worth no more than McGahee, folks on that board think he's better than Alexander and Edgerrin. We want to give up a 3rd, you guys expect more than a 1st. Realistically, if this trade does happen, it wont be for more than a 2nd rounder this year ... maybe you'll get a 3rd rounder next year if a team gets desperate. Not that I'd advocate his selection at 12 but the difference in projected salaries between Lynch and Turner way more than offset the latter's experience running behind a great line. Anything more than that and I'd rather take my chances with a draftee sometime in the first day.

Good post! I completely agree. If Turners price goes beyond our 3rd this year I opt for plan B and go after the best available back with our 2nd, if Peterson is gone before 12 (which I'm pretty sure he will be).

[Fan in San Diego]

That was brilliant. Thanks, I didn't know that. So I guess every pick in the 4th and 3rd and especially 2nd and 1st rounds is much better than him in the last 4 years. Or maybe it doesn't matter who you draft or when you draft them, they are all the same. Or is it, once a 5th rounder always a 5th rounder. Or maybe we should totally forget about picking RBs in the first 4 rounds because the really good ones are all found in the 5th round. Why waste a #1 or #2 pick on Turner when you can just wait and get a guy just like him in the 5th round. Actually, since we don't have a 5th round pick this year, do you think any team would be willing to part with their 5th rounder for our 3rd or 4th rounder, so we can be in position to pick up the next Michael Turner? What are you trying to say, other than nothing?

 

I'm trying to say that picking up a RB in the 3rd round is just as good as trading a 3rd round pick for Turner. Don't get too wrapped up in trading for a RB, you can get a great RB just about anywhere. Who knows maybe that guy (Jackson?) from Europe is the bomb and we dont know it yet.

[Fan in San Diego]

Mr. Wilson, glad to have you here. I know you're busy, but when you're sitting at your office you should drop by now and again, I think you'd find it interesting (and certainly amusing) and you could sure teach us a thing or two.

 

I'm not sure anyone (or certainly not many) here suggested a #1 AND a #2 for Turner, though some have suggested that for Peterson. I agree with you that's just too much for either of them.

 

But, and I know it's late for a man of your age, I'm wondering if you've forgotten to taken your meds, or perhaps you haven't had your tea and crumpets yet, but something is clearly wrong. To suggest McGahee is has "established" the going rate for ANY back on the market is, well, just plain stupid.

Sorry to disagree, but the Willis trade does set a benchmark. No more than a 3rd rounder for Turner the draft pick burner !

[JimBob2232]

For anyone thinking that Turner will walk for nothing next year, you do realize that the NFL grants compensatory picks for free agents that don't resign, right? The Chargers will wind up with a 3rd rounder if they decide to keep Turner and let him walk after the upcoming season. Anything less than that as a possible trade is just plain laughable.

 

AJ Smith doesn't BS. He is BY FAR the best GM in the NFL right now. As Bills Fans, you should know this guys eye for talent. Regardless of what anyone wants to think, AJ is in the catbirds seat. There are AT LEAST three teams bidding on Turner as we speak, so anything less than a first is going to fall on deaf ears at Charger Park. Forget swapping picks- it ain't happening. AJ has stated publicly that if the price isn't right, he will let MT walk next year without compensation (aside from the compensatory 3rd round pick). San Diego is built to win a Super Bowl NOW. They have no reason to sell off players on the cheap, as a Michael Turner could mean the difference if the unspeakable happened and LT were injured.

 

The Chargers WILL get a #1 should they decide to trade him. If you don't want that #1 to be a Bills pick, so be it. I will say that the guy is the REAL DEAL, and part of what makes him attractive is the fact that he has proven to be a pro's pro off the field as well as on. The guy is a consummate team player, hard worker, model citizen, ROLE MODEL. The team that winds up with him is going to be very happy.

 

Personally, as a Chargers Fan, I hope we keep him. The guy is the ULTIMATE insurance policy to the best back in the NFL. Either way, I feel MT's immediate future will be decided within the next few days.

 

Good luck to the Bills in '07.

 

Geez..you need to learn a little something about the NFL.

1) Comp picks ARE NOT BASED ON WHO YOU LOST. They are based on the number of players you lost, and IF the net number is greater than zero, you will get a comp pick based on the net salary of those players gained and lost. So before you can dream of getting a 3rd round pick for losing Turner, here is what needs to happen. a) he needs to stay healthy in 2007 (likely). b) He needs to sign a monster contract after 2007 (probable). c) The chargers need to not sign any more FAs (in number) than they lost (rare) and d) the total value of the players they sign must be significantly less than Turners contract (doubful). If you can predict all of this a year in advance, then there is a GM job waiting for you. Get your resume ready. (BTW, Smart Bills fans realize its unlikely we will get ANY comp picks next year for losign Clements, Fletcher, McGahee AND Spikes this offseason).

 

2) Shawn Alexander could not fetch a 2nd round pick. Edgarin James could not fetch a 2nd round pick. Willis McGahee was sent packing for 3 third round picks. Thomas Jones was only worth a swap of 2nd round picks. What makes Turner so special he is worth a first round pick, when clearly other backs in his class and are much more established could not.

 

3) One more point. Right now, Buffalo, Tennessee and Green Bay are the only 3 teams desperate for a Running Back. Still available are Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Micheal Bush, Kenny Irons, Brandon Jackson, Antonio Pitman, Tony Hunt, Chris Brown, Corey Dillon, Kevan Barlow and Micheal Turner. And I am sure it wouldnt take much to pry Lamont Jordan from Oakland. Point is, there is still alot of supply out there, and demand is low. Be prepared to be happy with a pair of 3rd round picks for turner, and then you can be thrilled when you get just a bit more.

[Fan in San Diego]

For anyone thinking that Turner will walk for nothing next year, you do realize that the NFL grants compensatory picks for free agents that don't resign, right? The Chargers will wind up with a 3rd rounder if they decide to keep Turner and let him walk after the upcoming season. Anything less than that as a possible trade is just plain laughable.

 

AJ Smith doesn't BS. He is BY FAR the best GM in the NFL right now. As Bills Fans, you should know this guys eye for talent. Regardless of what anyone wants to think, AJ is in the catbirds seat. There are AT LEAST three teams bidding on Turner as we speak, so anything less than a first is going to fall on deaf ears at Charger Park. Forget swapping picks- it ain't happening. AJ has stated publicly that if the price isn't right, he will let MT walk next year without compensation (aside from the compensatory 3rd round pick). San Diego is built to win a Super Bowl NOW. They have no reason to sell off players on the cheap, as a Michael Turner could mean the difference if the unspeakable happened and LT were injured.

 

The Chargers WILL get a #1 should they decide to trade him. If you don't want that #1 to be a Bills pick, so be it. I will say that the guy is the REAL DEAL, and part of what makes him attractive is the fact that he has proven to be a pro's pro off the field as well as on. The guy is a consummate team player, hard worker, model citizen, ROLE MODEL. The team that winds up with him is going to be very happy.

 

Personally, as a Chargers Fan, I hope we keep him. The guy is the ULTIMATE insurance policy to the best back in the NFL. Either way, I feel MT's immediate future will be decided within the next few days.

 

Good luck to the Bills in '07.

 

That decision is balanced by how many FA's lost and how many FA's re-signed. They may be compensated with zero ! See the Bills compensatory picks in the past.

[obie_wan]

RUBBISH! You have no proof of that. He was not used in the passing game. That MAY or MAY NOT be reflective of his ability.

 

Are you certain he can't block and pick up the blitz? PLEASE, point to a link, a quote, some film...ANYTHING to support another of your unsupported over generalizations.

 

Try to remember he played for Marty Shotz, one of the most conservative and unimaginative coaches in the NFL. AND he played behind LT.

 

 

how about posting some film clips that show he can do those things.

 

 

there is a reason he lasted unitl the 5th round even though he had great rushing stats in college.

 

there is a reason the Chargers drafted Darren Sproles to replace him even though Turner is a superstar in the making.

 

there is a reason that a team that goes 14-2 with multiple blow-outs still overworks LT with over 400 touches and can only get Turner 80 carries.

 

Marty is smart enough to know that he needs a healthy and fresh LT to make a playoff run. But he's also smart enough to know that an RB that can't or won't block will get his QB killed.

 

 

and why did he catch just 3 passes when the RB is such a big component of their offense. LT had over 50.

 

Posters are gaga over his yards per carry- which is heavily inflated by his long runs posted after the defense was worn down by LT.

 

If you take away his 1 longest carry in the 12 games he played, his average drops to a much more pedestrian 3.9.

 

 

show me something to support that he is the complete package and worthy of more than a 3rd pick.

[KOKBILLS]

If you take away his 1 longest carry in the 12 games he played, his average drops to a much more pedestrian 3.9.

show me something to support that he is the complete package and worthy of more than a 3rd pick.

 

I think the Market is set concerning HB's via Trade who want new deals, and the Market is basically a 3rd Round Pick in 2007...And a lower 3rd Round Pick at that...No matter what argument The Bolts try to make to the contrary, it simply cannot be said that Turner is worth any more than McGahee or Jones...It just can't...Potential in the NFL is nothing more than a word that starts with the letter P...It means jack squat...McGahee and Jones are FAR more proven and certainly not a heck of a lot older (McGahee is basically the same age)...

 

The difference is only in what a Team is willing to give in comparison to what the Trading Team is willing to take...Desperation definitely figures into the mix, that's how The Bills got the 2008 3rd Round Pick from Baltimore...SD is trying to play hard ball because outside of Turner walking in 2008 without compensation, they really have zero incentive to Trade him...They are trying to Win a Championship in 2007...right now! And it's hard to imagine they can get a better back-up than Turner this coming Season...So why not try to get as close to the 1st and 3rd as you possibly can, field the best offers, create a bidding war, then decide if it's really worth Trading Turner...

 

My guess is that AJ Smith will get offered little more than what The Bills got for McGahee and he'll ship Turner out anyway because He wants an extra 1st day Pick in this Draft...But if The Chargers decide to keep Turner this year I will not be surprised in the least...

[Brandon]

For anyone thinking that Turner will walk for nothing next year, you do realize that the NFL grants compensatory picks for free agents that don't resign, right? The Chargers will wind up with a 3rd rounder if they decide to keep Turner and let him walk after the upcoming season. Anything less than that as a possible trade is just plain laughable.

 

AJ Smith doesn't BS. He is BY FAR the best GM in the NFL right now. As Bills Fans, you should know this guys eye for talent. Regardless of what anyone wants to think, AJ is in the catbirds seat. There are AT LEAST three teams bidding on Turner as we speak, so anything less than a first is going to fall on deaf ears at Charger Park. Forget swapping picks- it ain't happening. AJ has stated publicly that if the price isn't right, he will let MT walk next year without compensation (aside from the compensatory 3rd round pick). San Diego is built to win a Super Bowl NOW. They have no reason to sell off players on the cheap, as a Michael Turner could mean the difference if the unspeakable happened and LT were injured.

 

The Chargers WILL get a #1 should they decide to trade him. If you don't want that #1 to be a Bills pick, so be it. I will say that the guy is the REAL DEAL, and part of what makes him attractive is the fact that he has proven to be a pro's pro off the field as well as on. The guy is a consummate team player, hard worker, model citizen, ROLE MODEL. The team that winds up with him is going to be very happy.

 

Personally, as a Chargers Fan, I hope we keep him. The guy is the ULTIMATE insurance policy to the best back in the NFL. Either way, I feel MT's immediate future will be decided within the next few days.

 

Good luck to the Bills in '07.

 

You might want to do a little more research on compensatory picks, because you certainly are not guaranteed a 3rd round pick for Turner. The NFL's compensatory formula is based upon the net gain/loss of players signed and, to a much lesser extent, the salaries of those players signed or loss. Under most circumstances, you must have a net loss of players in order to get a compensatory pick. Though I have my doubts, its possible that you might get a 3rd if you lose Turner and don't sign anyone. A major FA signing will completely negate it, and even signing a couple of scrubs will drop it to a 5th or a 6th. You might not even get anything.

 

I agree that AJ Smith probably will not and should not accept less than a 1st for Turner. The Chargers do not have to trade him and as a Super Bowl contender, the insurance is worth more than a 2nd round or later pick to your team. That, however, does not mean that he is worth a 1st round draft choice to the teams bidding for him. They still have acceptable alternatives, primarily in the form of the upcoming draft. The Bills, in particular, should get a shot at Lynch and possibly Peterson, but the 2nd tier RBs such as Pittman, Irons and Jackson are reasonable options as well. Turner is not the best or only choice for the Bills, or the Titans or Packers, either.

 

In the end, I expect that Turner will remain with the Chargers.

[Buffaloed in Pa]

how about posting some film clips that show he can do those things.

there is a reason he lasted unitl the 5th round even though he had great rushing stats in college.

 

there is a reason the Chargers drafted Darren Sproles to replace him even though Turner is a superstar in the making.

 

there is a reason that a team that goes 14-2 with multiple blow-outs still overworks LT with over 400 touches and can only get Turner 80 carries.

 

Marty is smart enough to know that he needs a healthy and fresh LT to make a playoff run. But he's also smart enough to know that an RB that can't or won't block will get his QB killed.

and why did he catch just 3 passes when the RB is such a big component of their offense. LT had over 50.

 

Posters are gaga over his yards per carry- which is heavily inflated by his long runs posted after the defense was worn down by LT.

 

If you take away his 1 longest carry in the 12 games he played, his average drops to a much more pedestrian 3.9.

show me something to support that he is the complete package and worthy of more than a 3rd pick.

Very, very well said.Tell it like it is.

[The Dean]

The "Dean"??? What are you the "dean" of, ill informed overopinionated shortsighted web posters? Before commenting again, why don't you have your 7 year old sister reread my post and then have her S L O W L Y explain it to you. I didn't suggest posters were suggesting we were offering our 1st and 2nd, I said our 1st OR 2nd. I've seen numerous posts suggesting we give up our 2nd and additional picks. IMO Turner's value will continue to come down and we'll be able to get Turner for a 3rd and a later day 2 pick.

 

To think that the McGahee trade didn't establish a reference point for a starting running backs value is absolute nonsense. You can also look to the Thomas Jones trade. All the Jets did was swap 2nd's. McGahee at the very least would rank in the top 15-20 RB's. Based on Turner's career accomplishments, if you put Turner above that level you've had too many Tootsie Rolls and Kool-aid and it's time for you to lie down and take your nap young man.

 

Thanks for reminding me about my meds. I just took a couple "blue pills" and now it's time for my 24 year old Swedish nurse to give me my sponge bath. Don't wait up.

 

Ralph, glad to see you are staying. As I'm sure you know, if you've been around here for any period of time, I am one of your biggest supporters. HOF material for sure. Now, back to business:

 

On the 1st or 2nd vs 1st and 2nd, you are most certainly correct, I misread (I do that at least once a day...I have to do a better job of that). My bad. Sorry.

 

I also agree that using the #12 (simply giving SD our #1 pick) is too much, as I think that's too much for us to give for a funning back. ANY running back, including AP. But for those who consider using the #12 for AP or Lunch, I understand they might think this is fair.

 

I think the #2 is very appropriate, however.

 

Again, as the owner of the Bills, I understand your stated position that MaGahee set the market price for a RB. But, as your consultant, your Dean, as it were, I say to you (in private, man-to-man, consultant to client), "That's a great starting point for the negotiation, RW. Hold on to it as long as you can. But, you and I both know AJ will laugh right in your face, because it's just really stupid. So, just be prepared to pay a little more than that, OK, boss?"

[Lurker]

I'm trying to say that picking up a RB in the 3rd round is just as good as trading a 3rd round pick for Turner.

 

In terms of contract value and cap space, there's a huge difference between the two...how many other positions could be addressed with that $$$ differential?

[Brandon]

how about posting some film clips that show he can do those things.

there is a reason he lasted unitl the 5th round even though he had great rushing stats in college.

 

there is a reason the Chargers drafted Darren Sproles to replace him even though Turner is a superstar in the making.

 

there is a reason that a team that goes 14-2 with multiple blow-outs still overworks LT with over 400 touches and can only get Turner 80 carries.

 

Marty is smart enough to know that he needs a healthy and fresh LT to make a playoff run. But he's also smart enough to know that an RB that can't or won't block will get his QB killed.

and why did he catch just 3 passes when the RB is such a big component of their offense. LT had over 50.

 

Posters are gaga over his yards per carry- which is heavily inflated by his long runs posted after the defense was worn down by LT.

 

If you take away his 1 longest carry in the 12 games he played, his average drops to a much more pedestrian 3.9.

show me something to support that he is the complete package and worthy of more than a 3rd pick.

 

Your point about the share of carries/receptions between Tomlinson and Turner is an excellent one. If Turner is SO good, why is Tomlinson getting run into the ground? It would seem to be a reasonable question.

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/235249/splits/2006

 

The situational stats on NFL.com tell an interesting story. Late in the game, Tomlinson DID indeed appear to wear down significantly. Look at the 'attempts 21 through 30' category. He averaged only 3.2 yards per carry on the 48 carries in that situation. I'm sure the Chargers were well aware of that stat. So it makes one wonder...why wasn't Turner being used somewhat more heavily in relief of Tomlinson if Turner is indeed as good as the hype?

 

As a comparison, the Bills were getting Kenneth Davis 125-150 touches per season in the early 90s in relief of Thurman Thomas.

[The Dean]

how about posting some film clips that show he can do those things.

there is a reason he lasted unitl the 5th round even though he had great rushing stats in college.

 

there is a reason the Chargers drafted Darren Sproles to replace him even though Turner is a superstar in the making.

 

there is a reason that a team that goes 14-2 with multiple blow-outs still overworks LT with over 400 touches and can only get Turner 80 carries.

 

Marty is smart enough to know that he needs a healthy and fresh LT to make a playoff run. But he's also smart enough to know that an RB that can't or won't block will get his QB killed.

and why did he catch just 3 passes when the RB is such a big component of their offense. LT had over 50.

 

Posters are gaga over his yards per carry- which is heavily inflated by his long runs posted after the defense was worn down by LT.

 

If you take away his 1 longest carry in the 12 games he played, his average drops to a much more pedestrian 3.9.

show me something to support that he is the complete package and worthy of more than a 3rd pick.

 

 

Here's the thing:

 

I'm suggesting we don't know FOR SURE if he can do these other things. I'm sure Marv and co are finding out. I think they know already, actually.

 

I'm suggesting you don't know EITHER. The difference is I say, "I think", you make absolute declarative statements.

 

You make the absolute declarative statements inferring from a VERY INCOMPLETE set of observations and facts.

 

And, as you've have been shown to be so horribly wrong lately, you'd think you'd learn:

 

Marv will NEVER trade up (spouted on repeated occasions as if you had SOME knowledge of the situation, when you, in fact, had NONE)

 

Crowell never played MLB (again, spoken not with any modesty or doubt, OB KNEW the truth here...right?)

 

You also started a thread about a deal (or a move) that was not, in fact a deal (or a move).

 

[EDIT] You were completely wrong in your (stupid to begin with) calculation of MT's YPC after removing his longest run (see post below)

 

So...where does that leave us. We agree Turner is a great runner? We don't know if he has the other intangibles? We disagree on if he is better than MaGahee?

 

As to your taking away his big run, here's another way to look at his running ability:

 

In 13 games (zero starts) for the 14-2 Chargers last year, Turner accumulated seven 20-plus-yard runs. McGahee, meanwhile, in 14 games (all starts), had just four rushes over 20 yards in 2006.

Thank you Connor J. Byrne

 

Of course Connor could have pointed out that MT managed his SEVEN 20-yard plus rushes on 80 carries. OTOH, Willis achieved his FOUR 20-yard plus runs on 259 carries. Yeah...Willis and MT...same guy.

[Kelly the Dog]

If you take away his 1 longest carry in the 12 games he played, his average drops to a much more pedestrian 3.9

Wrong.

 

He had 80 carries for 502 yards. His longest carry was 73 yards. Take that away, which is stupid to begin with, and he has 79 carries for 429 yards, which is still 5.4 YPC which is still terrific.

[The Dean]

Wrong.

 

He had 80 carries for 502 yards. His longest carry was 73 yards. Take that away, which is stupid to begin with, and he has 79 carries for 429 yards, which is still 5.4 YPC which is still terrific.

 

 

Let's add it to the list of "obie wan pronouncements gone wrong"

[Matt in KC]

Wrong.

 

He had 80 carries for 502 yards. His longest carry was 73 yards. Take that away, which is stupid to begin with, and he has 79 carries for 429 yards, which is still 5.4 YPC which is still terrific.

 

 

For comparison sake:

McGahee ran 259 times for 990, a 3.8 average. That's 3.6 when you remove his top run (57 yards).

 

Tomlinson: 348 for 1815 yards. 5.2 --> 5.0 yds/carry when removing top run (85 yards).

Reggie Bush: 155 for 565 yards. 3.6 --> 3.55 yds/carry when removing top run (18 yards).

Frank Gore: 312 for 1695 yards. 5.4 --> 5.2 yds/carry when removing top run (72 yards).

 

I think he might have taken out the top run from each game. I wonder what a good average is for a season when you remove your top run each game...(???)

[Electric Chair]

I am well aware of how compensatory picks work, gentlemen. Have any of you followed the Chargers in free agency? Do a search and you will see that AJ Smith RARELY signs free agents. And when he does, it is never the big name/big contract types. Seeing that we have 26 core players signed through 2009, I seriously doubt that AJ is going to buck his current trend of building through the draft and go on a wild spending spree in free agency. I also have little doubt that Turner is going to tear this league up as a feature back.

 

FWIW, I wouldn't want to give a first for him either. But like I said previously, AJ doesn't BS. He has made comments that lead me to believe that anything less than a first THIS YEAR is a deal breaker. Also, like I said previously, I hope we keep him regardless of compensation. But I feel that this whole process has gone too far to come back.

 

Trading for Turner this year will cost (cap wise) a lot less than trying to sign him next year.

[JAMIEBUF12]

I see this claim being batted around the Chargers' boards and I really think people don't understand the whole compensation issue. I wish you no malice but it's no guarantee he'll fetch a 3rd rounder - and that pick won't be available till '09. Going by some simple draft chart assumptions, a 3rd rounder in '09 is equivalent to something like a 5th rounder this year. And that's if you get a 3rd rounder - more likely unless he goes to a team with a great OL and has a spectacular season, you'll be lucky to pull off a 4th ... in '09.

 

People here think he's worth no more than McGahee, folks on that board think he's better than Alexander and Edgerrin. We want to give up a 3rd, you guys expect more than a 1st. Realistically, if this trade does happen, it wont be for more than a 2nd rounder this year ... maybe you'll get a 3rd rounder next year if a team gets desperate. Not that I'd advocate his selection at 12 but the difference in projected salaries between Lynch and Turner way more than offset the latter's experience running behind a great line. Anything more than that and I'd rather take my chances with a draftee sometime in the first day.

are you sure they even get a 3rd rounder if michael walks?the reason i ask is he was drafted in the 5th round.wouldn't he only fetch san diego a 5th then?or would it be higher because san diego placed the highest tender on him this year?