TNF - Bucs/Falcons (Not that anyone cares)

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

5 minutes ago, dhg said:

But they could have made it 28-21. One score game. Instead, by going for 2 and missing it became a two score game

 

It was still a 1 score game at 28-20. Obviously that's dependent on them converting the next 2 pointer though. 

 

I think the math is fairly simple in this scenario. If you're down by 14 in the 4th Q you should always go for 2. If you have a 40% chance of converting (somewhat less than league average) the odds look like this:

 

40% chance of converting the first 2 pt conversion leading to a large advantage (win on the next TD+PAT)

36% chance of failing both 2 point conversions leading to a large disadvantage  (2 point deficit)

24% chance failing the 1st 2 point conversion and succeeding on the 2nd leading to a tie

[dhg]

22 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

It was still a 1 score game at 28-20. Obviously that's dependent on them converting the next 2 pointer though. 

 

I think the math is fairly simple in this scenario. If you're down by 14 in the 4th Q you should always go for 2. If you have a 40% chance of converting (somewhat less than league average) the odds look like this:

 

40% chance of converting the first 2 pt conversion leading to a large advantage (win on the next TD+PAT)

36% chance of failing both 2 point conversions leading to a large disadvantage  (2 point deficit)

24% chance failing the 1st 2 point conversion and succeeding on the 2nd leading to a tie

I understand that. But if you kick the 1 you don't worry about having to go for 2 pt conversion. Take it to OT worst case

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, dhg said:

But they could have made it 28-21. One score game. Instead, by going for 2 and missing it became a two score game

8 pts is not a 2 score game.  

[BearNorth]

Just curious since we played both and lost to the Falcons and beat the Bucs, would this game affect the Bills deep in the weeds of tiebreakers for seeds?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Just curious since we played both and lost to the Falcons and beat the Bucs, would this game affect the Bills deep in the weeds of tiebreakers for seeds?

Indeed!  Agreed!

[boyst]

first round of playoffs....left Pitts on the bench over Ferguson.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

My lone painful thought after watching (and falling asleep during) the game was drafting Sammy Glasskins over Mike Evans 😡😡😡😡

[eball]

43 minutes ago, boyst said:

first round of playoffs....left Pitts on the bench over Ferguson.

 

Dude, I did the same for Kincaid.  It was a coin flip.

 

[L Ron Burgundy]

Bowles I think clinched getting fired at season's end barring a deep playoff run.